Reader Barb Rennie posted this in yesterdays thread, can any Realtors vouch for it’s accuracy?
Total number of Sales in West Vancouver for Detached Homes:
Month of January 2014 – 55
Month of January 2015 – 36Total number of Sales in Vancouver Westside for Detached Homes:
Month of January 2014 – 147
Month of January 2015 – 77
Are all sales from January 2015 are tabulated yet or is this apparent drop in west side sales simply due to incomplete data?
[…] alarm over household debt -Panic in Alberta Luxury RE -But Toronto and the ‘Couve are fine -January Realtor Hunger Index 71% -Oil prices surge to 1 month high […]
“period of speculative mania”
It has been there for so long, it is more appropriate to call it an “era” rather than a “period”.
“This market continually rises to new levels of inconceivable pricing.”
Agreed. It also means rental yields are falling to unacceptably low levels for any rational investor. The SFH market is in a period of speculative mania. Those usually don’t end well.
P.S. It also means there is no “soft landing”.
“We’re pushing at the outer limits of conceivable pricing,”
That was the case five years ago, and four years ago and three years ago, etc. Todays prices were inconceivable in the recent past. This market continually rises to new levels of inconceivable pricing.
#50 – BoC could drop the overnight rate to zero…? I suppose…but then say hello to the 55 cent loonie….
😀
And prepare to pay 40% more for fresh groceries or gasoline…
Cross-border shopping? Fuggetaboutit….
😉
@40
the limit for CMHC funding is 1 million. yet the vast majority of houses for sale in richmond are listed over 1 million. so much for the theory that CHMC is driving demand.
or maybe richmond is now considered ‘high-end’?
@50:
The other question is how much the bond market will put up with.
Owners might think the current market is a repeat of the one in 2008. A brief drop in prices, and came back for multi-year gain. Hence, the new listings are slow.
Bank of Canada already dropped 1/4, and can still drop 3/4, and then will start buying bonds. The playbook is already written, the only different is the private sectors in the States have a strong ability to renew themselves, but not so much here.
Only question is how low can they accept loonie is too low.
From the stats package for Vancouver West detached. The drop in sales was exceeded by the drop in listings.
Jan 2014:
New listings: 407
Sales: 117
Sales to listings ratio: 29%
Jan 2015:
New listings: 278
Sales: 100
Sales to listings ratio: 36%
fwiw…MSM (ctv, global, vanc sun etc) went full-court press on the RE coverage last night and again this morning. nothing out of the ordinary said and just what you’d expect at this time of year. i guess in due time we’ll see who winds up with egg on their faces, either the powers that be in ottawa (who think things are bad enough to warrant first rate cuts in yrs) OR the RE trifecta, namely the msm, RE developers/agents and the faux “academics” hired to back up the sales pitch (who are only allowed to operate in two gears, BUY THE DIP and BUY BEFORE YOU ARE PRICED OUT FOREVER).
imho, the activity is getting pretty out of hand on this msg board. perhaps i’ll check back in a few months. until then…GLTA
Fair enough, the record low mortgage rates will spur some middle class sideline watchers to throw in the towel and figure all will be lost if they don’t buy now. I can hardly blame them, given the one way seeming trend in this town. But it ain’t helping to move the $5mm properties, that market is dead, and eventually the great unwashed will realize that the boc lowered rates out of fear not because of economic strength…as oil let’s go of some of the recent surge gains, reality will sink in to albertans and will gradually spill over into other provinces with BC the first to get a whiff of what fear smells and tastes like. Such is the way things go in the jungle, eventually excess is rooted out and destroyed. SFH market on the westside is showing none… Read more »
Randy,
Rate spy website has 5 year fixed rate at 2.35% now. Tell me that isn’t going to result in a leg up in housing.
So Oracle is bailing out of Delta investment? What about his rant about how butt-fuck Delta is the next hottest RE zone?
#43 – The “surge” they’re referring to is the fact that WTI has jumped 19% in 4 days, I presume.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-firm-two-day-rally-china-demand-outlook-015856711.html
Of course, it could just as easily give it all back in the next four days…
😉
Oil Prices Surge 7% to One-Month High
Wow. SURGES to $52/barrel. Reporting for the O&G sector is almost as impartial as real estate coverage.
Saudi government has said it is willing to eat profit losses for up to one year in order to block unwanted producers entering the market. Low prices could be here for awhile and the carnage will not be confined to AB. Sales are bewilderingly high, but the ground is shaking.
@14 – I miss Li Kai Shing. That guy was among the funniest commenters of all time.
@BBB 18 – Got numbers? I wouldn’t be surprised if they quietly surpassed the limits they said they would going to toe….
Meanwhile in crazy land;
“No signs of slowing in red-hot real estate market”, CTV News with video.
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/no-signs-of-slowing-in-red-hot-real-estate-market-1.2219286
“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver released new figures Tuesday that showed the typical detached property in the area increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000. The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $641,600.”
“Calgary’s housing market under pressure as new listings, inventory soar” Financial Post
“Nervous Calgary homeowners started a stampede to list their homes on the market in January, well outpacing demand, and creating conditions that could lead to a price collapse.”
Don’t worry, everyone…..people getting fired in Alberta will flood into B.C. and buy houses, thereby driving up prices! Whew! “Vancouver housing market booming as B.C. reaps gain of Alberta residents” BRENT JANG VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail Published Tuesday, Feb. 03 2015, 8:31 PM EST http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/vancouver-housing-market-booming-as-bc-reaps-gain-of-alberta-residents/article22775169/ “The Vancouver region’s housing market is off to a hot start for 2015 amid forecasts that Alberta’s pain will be British Columbia’s gain. The home price index (HPI) in Greater Vancouver for single-family detached homes hit a record $1,010,000 in January, jumping 8.4 per cent from the same month in 2014. The benchmark HPI, which strips out the most expensive properties, reached a new high of $641,600 last month for detached homes, condos and townhouses sold on the multiple listing service, up 5.5 per cent over the past year… …More B.C. residents moved… Read more »
Thanks Paul.
200 sale day.
I think we are going to see a 300 sale day this month.
Paul B,
Why don’t you do a search yourself on the MLS? Instead of looking at these tables, and stats… Search total sales for the specific area of Vancouver Westside Detached for the month of January 1 – 31, 2014, then the period of January 1 – 31, 2015. See if you don’t get my numbers.
From the category: most cherry picked stats in Global news hour history
“According to the real estate board of Vancouver, housing inventory is the 2nd lowest in the last 4 years”.
Why not just call yourselves Global Comedy Hour?
@Mortgageslave – How do you know that? Did you actually do any research or talked to any sellers who pulled listings off the market in the years past? Or is this a pure conjecture on your part?
There were lots of expired listings every day for the last 5 years which seem to be me indicates that those people didn’t get the bid they want.
