FFFA! oil, panic, debt, surge

Hey, you made it to the end of another work week!

That means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all. This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

New alarm over household debt
Panic in Alberta Luxury RE
But Toronto and the ‘Couve are fine
January Realtor Hunger Index 71%
Oil prices surge to 1 month high

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“The economist realtors love to hate: David Madani stands by 2011 prediction of Canadian housing ‘day of reckoning’”, National Post. http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/05/the-economist-realtors-love-to-hate-david-madani-stands-by-2011-prediction-of-canadian-housing-day-of-reckoning/ “David Madani is sticking to his guns, almost four years to the day that one of the most quoted bears on the housing market predicted as much as a 25% decline in prices.” ““There will be a day of reckoning,” said the Canada economist of Capital Economics in an interview. Mr. Madani bills himself as independent of the mortgage and real estate industries and able to offer a clear view of the housing market. “Enjoy it while it lasts, that’s my response. Tell these real estate people just because it hasn’t happened, doesn’t mean it won’t.”” “His original forecast said the eventual collapse of houses prices could even cripple the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the Crown corporation that… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s housing market prompts bubble warnings … again”, Yahoo Finance

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/balance-sheet/the-bank-of-canadas-recent-interest-rate-cut-may-190115727.html

“Capital Economics economist David Madani says the benchmark rate cut, which has led lenders to lower their mortgage rates, won’t do much to stop home sales and prices from sliding in oil-dependent parts of Alberta.”

“The lower rates might support housing activity in other key markets, he says in a note, but “we fear that this will only fuel greater overvaluation, higher household debt and more overbuilding.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“High household debt leaves Canada vulnerable, report warns”
“Debt levels approaching U.K. and U.S. levels during 2007 financial crisis”, CBC News.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/high-household-debt-leaves-canada-vulnerable-report-warns-1.2946287

“Canada is vulnerable because of its high levels of household debt and could face a crisis if the economy takes a sharp downturn, new report from McKinsey Global Institute says.”

Jobs !
Guest
Jobs !

35,000 last month!!

No correction here, move on.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

@4:
“Last month’s increases came as part-time work rose by 47,200 while full-time jobs fell by 11,800 and self employment rose.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/jobless-rate-dips-to-66-as-canada-pumps-out-35000-jobs/article22828865/

Woohoo?

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Heh – 17k+ Target layoffs and recent oil patch layoffs aren’t in there either.

history
Guest
history

#4

Jobs dont matter in a FIRE Welfare Distribution economy.

if you must work it just means your not clever enough to game the system. You havent swindled a handout(bond), ie. collateralized junk

@history
Guest
@history

Amen.

The wealthiest people I know don’t work 9-5. Take a week off and cruise Vancouver. You will see.

@history
Guest
@history

Some people will never get it. Look at the teachers. They royally fucked up. Signed a LONG contract in times of coming inflation. They were too nice and didn’t use propaganda on social media. Christy used $350,000 for social media campaign.

You really want your kids educated by public school teachers in this day and age?

The teachers are easily outsmarted.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“CMHC CEO says low rates won’t put stress on overvalued housing market”, CBC News with video.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-ceo-says-low-rates-won-t-put-stress-on-overvalued-housing-market-1.2946978

“Canada’s housing market may be “modestly overvalued,” according to the CEO of CMHC, but that’s no reason to fear a painful crash even after last month’s cut in rates.”

crabman
Guest
crabman
After looking at the different appreciation rates for high-end vs. low-end condos, and detached vs. condo prices, I’m more convinced than ever that HAM is the primary driver for recent gains. http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=5253&pid=6320#pid6320 I’ve found some more pretty compelling evidence that the last 5 years have been driven by foreign money. I’ve recently noticed that high-end condos in my neighbourhood (Yaletown) have appreciated much more than low-end condos. This is not what usually happens in a debt-fueled bubble. Entry-level homes rely on debt much more than high-end homes do. It’s also true that the $1M+ SFH market has been much stronger than the sub-$1M condo market in recent years. However, CMHC hasn’t insured mortgages on $1M+ properties since 2012. This strongly suggests foreign money is the primary driver of the market right now. If you look at the long-term price graph… Read more »
history
Guest
history

@teachers

I would rather not roll the astrology of the Teachers strike but since Christy was invoked….

@crabman
Guest
@crabman

Your a racist crabman. How dare you implicate foreign money. (Sarcasm)

President Wu
Guest
President Wu

Let the thoughtful conversation begin and reign supreme in early morning.

space889
Guest
space889

@crabman – I’m surprised that Patriotz hasn’t responded to your foreign money/HAM nonsense….he is 3 hours ahead of us. Maybe he’s too busy constantly refreshing his real-time quotes.

space889
Guest
space889

Good Jan job report for BC, so looks like the housing crash will have to wait a bit longer….

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/situation+shows+slight+improvement+January/10793000/story.html

space889
Guest
space889

Well LNG maybe a bust but Cristy got a plan! Sell the most precious natural resource on Earth for almost free. This will make up for the lost LNG royalties!

All we need to do is suck this province dry of fresh groundwater at $2.25/Million liters.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/charge+bottling+million+litres+groundwater/10791463/story.html

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Look like interest is going up in June.

“Employment growth (US) is clearly on fire and its beginning to put upward pressure on wage growth. The Fed can’t wait much longer in that environment, particularly not when interest rates are starting at near-zero”

chilled
Member
chilled

Royce McCutcheon Says:
February 6th, 2015 at 6:41 am 6

Heh – 17k+ Target layoffs and recent oil patch layoffs aren’t in there either.

++++++++++

That’s because working at a place like Target isn’t a job, it’s a sentence.

space889
Guest
space889

Those 17K people are still working so they aren’t counted as job lost. Only when they go off Target’s payroll would they get counted in the job lost category.

Yunak
Guest
Yunak

@11

Either times Vancouver got fubared more and more. Too bad there weren’t more diversity but same crapola that made city shitier.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Howdy Bears, howz tricks?

@space989
Guest
@space989

Natural Gas at $2.59. So much for the LNG industry in BC.

Only hope now is low low loonie, increased immigration and have the foreigners buy the detached houses local boomers own.

What a banana republic we have next to the United states if America. And I’m not talking about Mexico.

crikey
Guest
crikey
File this one under “Obvious” — Weather warning: Vancouver should brace itself for Vancouver weather! Notes: This rain is washing away snow on the ski mountains; snowmaking is impossible – So much for the “In Vancouver you can swim, ski, sail, golf on the same day” crap. As this story shows, for a good part of the winter you can do none of those, (nevermind not being able to do all of them on one day most times of year)! After discussion a severe and sad pedestrian crash, a bit later in the segment the crackerjack journalist offers this gem: “Compared to a Saskatchewan winter, the rain isn’t so bad”. – So all is not lost, oh worshipees of the Best Place on Earth! In The Best Place on Earth, it has now come to this desperate betrayal of a… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@23 – Don’t forget the entrepeural immigrants where they buy a marginal if not failing business from a boomer and run it for 2 years to get citizenship. All part of the plan to allow the boomers to cash out, the big business interests to rape and suck (literally and figuratively) this province dry, and sock it to the next generation.

This is provincial government BC has elected for the last 10+ years, and Canada elected for the last 10+ years as well.

Are the average person really better off under the right wing parties (BC Liberal being a right wing party in disguise)? I don’t think so but negative ads, fear mongerings, and dumbing down education system works.

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