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vangrl
Member
vangrl

alright let’s go with land speculation

Why is our land, specifically Vancouver, appreciating on speculation faster than almost any other place in the world?

Are are running out of land? that is an argument I’ve heard

Why are we running out of land?

Because we have one of the highest rates of immigration per capita in the world?

Which nationality has the highest percentage of immigrants to Vancouver ?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Vangrl, it’s land speculation that’s driving prices up. That’s why condos aren’t appreciated as much as properties that can be redeveloped at higher density.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

so speculation that detached will keep rising, but condos won’t?

Detached houses in Van (& maybe Toronto?) are a bit of an anomaly in the last few years, why is it that these 2 areas in almost the entire world have appreciated on speculation more than anywhere else?

Besides Oz maybe, but we know what’s happening there.

patriotz
Member

@100: “On the same note, if it was all about rates, as I believe you think it is”

No I don’t. If it was just about rates, buying would be about break even with renting at current rates, and it’s way more than that.

It’s really about speculation, like all bubbles.

Wearehere
Guest
Wearehere

Anyone listening to Garth Turner in Toronto and Vancouver (and I suspect most his readers are from Toronto based on the comments section) would have seen the price of houses run away from them 30%/40% or more since he was banging the drum on not buying/selling.

Now that Calgary has got wobbly and Fort Mac is dropping, he has declared victory.

How convenient to be able to ignore the biggest metropolis in the country.

Enoughalready
Guest
Enoughalready

Patriotz @96

Don’t be perturbed. They are moving everywhere. Just had a friend sell his North Van house to one of them. They did their usual deal, buying it with the furniture included. So they can lock the door and leave again and have it here for an ’emergency’.
Another home lost from the housing stock so that hot money can have a home.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#96

I think we’re all aware that condos really haven’t done that well in comparison to detached, even in the West and East side. And I think most on this forum are probably referring to the areas right next to Van West when they are referring to the trickle out effect, of course eventually it could trickle out further.

On the same note, if it was all about rates, as I believe you think it is, why are these other areas & condos not doing as well and have to offer incentives?

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#96

not me.

I Specifically said that prices further out than what this board typically talks about have not gone up nearly as much, and that it was still reasonably affordable. Probably still overpriced but doable if you wanted to live that far out.

It’s detached in the entire area of Van that has gone ballistic (East, West & North), and I think it started from the West, specifically the nicer areas in the West, and trickled out to the East & North…

What could derail RE?
Guest
What could derail RE?

One does start to wonder.

Does anyone else see this as a possible pattern of Vancouver’s RE cycle (using a Jan ’77 to Feb ’15 chart of detached prices) ?
http://i.cubeupload.com/YjD8CE.png

2008 to late 2012 should have seen a bigger correction, but there was far too much liquidity being thrown at the world during that time. Even now, the ECB has just commenced the printing another trillion and some.
I should note, I do not own any property lower mainland, it’s merely a curiosity, or should I say fascination. With the market behaving so strong this year you have to wonder, and why didn’t someone advise me to buy a few years back? 🙁

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

pats,
HAM does not buy in Surrey.
And, a couple of years ago, they were given away Mercedes to buyers of Townhouses in Richmond.

patriotz
Member

@86: “cuz we told you, rich Asians are too busy snapping up detached in Van West, West Van & Richmond! they’re not gonna buy a condo in Surrey, hence the need for incentives.”

That was my point. There are people on this board who are claiming that purchases by wealthy buyers in those areas are somehow supporting high prices everywhere else in the metro. The fact that developers have to offer incentives to get locals to buy in places like Surrey shows that this theory is wrong.

east side buyer's
Guest
east side buyer's

Car sales have fallen significantly never before has MB canada offered 0.6 % interest on used car’s. All others are offering 0 or next to zero and I’m not talking domestic or Korean crap. Just now after 2-3 yrs of robbery from the future are sales being affected and it’s just the beginning. ….next up detached house

Runawayscreaming
Guest
Runawayscreaming

@92

“I remember a time when everything was going to be sold to the Japanese and I also remember how that worked out.”

At that time a few legitimate Japanese companies bought a small number of commercial properties in BC. There was essentially no Japanese impact on residential property in BC. Chinese companies, individual Chinese kleptocrats and Chinese Criminal Investor Program Investors have purchased much more commercial property in BC than the Japanese did. Chinese citizen residential property purchases in Vancouver are enormous and unprecedented in dollar value, percentage of sales and geographic area. The deed has been done. There is no waiting to see if it works out.

Ulsterman
Member

Patriotz #66, it’s even worse. The Burnaby North townhouse sold for $406,000. I found a realtor commission calculator here
http://www.mikestewart.ca/commission-calculator-for-realtor-fees-in-vancouver-with-net-proceeds-for-sellers

and it says the seller would have paid $7,968 to the selling agent and $6,682 to the buying agent, and $733 in GST. Net received is $390,618. So after 4 years they “made” $17,382 BEFORE they updated the windows, installed granite counters, maple cabinets and stainless steel appliances.

The other item that caught my eye is that the selling agent made almost $8,000. But to be fair, they did slave away adding the listing to the MLS and showing a few people the house for an ENTIRE 9 days it was on the market. Phew!

divot
Guest
divot
Yeesh, Saturday evening and already 90 comments here? People seem to be concerned about YVR real estate costs I guess… @90: what could derail RE: Stopping Mainland money coming her – zero chance Well, if thats what you believe is driving this bubble, I’d say ‘zero’ is a bit low on the probability scale. If the chinese economy collapses under its own weight that might have an effect here. I remember a time when everything was going to be sold to the Japanese and I also remember how that worked out. Higher rates- zero chance. the poloz idiot wants to even lower them further. again, I agree that it looks like ZIP for now, but for how long? Present day government ‘wanting’ something has never tended to make a permanent situation. Less crinklies coming from other parts of Canada to… Read more »
enoughalready
Guest
enoughalready

Can anyone see what would derail our RE? I am asking seriously.
Alberta had it’s oil slump, but what will we have?

Stopping Mainland money coming her – zero chance
Higher rates- zero chance. the poloz idiot wants to even lower them further.
Less crinklies coming from other parts of Canada to escape another tough winter- zero chance
Harper does something about CNHC properly- zero chance.

So what will it be? Will anything give?
Can someone give me an ‘event’ that will trigger this? Yes debt is super high. The debt was high 10% ago.
Yes and we are 30% over-valued for incomes (except we know who never declares their income or we would have the highest income in the world)

history
Guest
history

“The reason I’m worried about it right now is crude oil prices. The economy has been driven by crude oil.” says Vikram Mansharamani

come now Vikram, are you telling us our Odor of Tarsands recipient, Mark Carney could be wrong? I don’t believe you understand fully the times we live in. The market can easily assimilate the overspending of the AB oil worker, with very little ‘default’. The personal debt can be easily mitigated to a nuisance minimum payment into infinity.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No wonder you hold the opinions you do if you get your information primarily from realtors and newspapers! What a joke.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#87

great, thanks for the link!

You should also set up an anonymous Facebook “page” , you could have all your youtube videos and articles in one place!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

@84 Your’e welcome. Hopefully these articles are informative.

I also post vids on youtube. Trying to document the Great Canadian Real Estate Bubble for future generations. Unfortunately, history has a habit of repeating, anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/user/southseacompany/videos

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#84-

cuz we told you, rich Asians are too busy snapping up detached in Van West, West Van & Richmond! they’re not gonna buy a condo in Surrey, hence the need for incentives.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

# Southseacompany

just wanted to thank you for posting all the articles that you do, much appreciated!

patriotz
Member

@82: ““Vince Taylor, of Platinum Project Marketing, said the move is critical to entice prospective buyers who are savvier than ever.”

Correction, that should be “more tapped out than ever”. That’s called a mortgage buydown and is a leading indicator of a bust.

But but but… why don’t they just sell them all to “Rich Asians”?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
Gotta love this; “Real Estate Watch: Dollar-a-day mortgage offered by B.C. condo developers”, BNN with Video. http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/3/19/Real-Estate-Watch-Dollar-a-day-mortgage-offered-by-BC-condo-developers.aspx “As Canadian banks slash their mortgage rates to new lows, a developer in B.C. is offering a dollar-a-day mortgage to interested home buyers in the Metro Vancouver region as incentive to buy in.” “WestStone Group and Platinum Project Marketing are offering the deal for buyers of a luxury condo in the Vancouver suburb of Surrey. After the first year, buyers must start paying down the rest of their mortgage at the regular rate.” “Vince Taylor, of Platinum Project Marketing, said the move is critical to entice prospective buyers who are savvier than ever. “If we’re not one step ahead; if we’re not fully prepared; if we’re not ready to go a mile further than the next guy, we won’t sell any condos,” he… Read more »
Not sure if it matters...
Guest
Not sure if it matters...
… but I was in the risk department of one of the big six on Friday. There I was when oil hit $43. I said, what’s the effect? They said, forget a V-shaped recession or a U-shaped recession. This one looks like a layer cake upside down- every time you think you’ve hit bottom, it gets worse. Real proof of the pudding (sorry!) will be if there’s no effect on Van prices from CDN economy in 2016. By that stage, it will be beyond credibility how anyone can claim Van prices are not directly linked to foreign money. Oh, and Australia and New Zealand have EXACTLY the same problem as someone else here has pointed out. So does Central London in the UK – and now, if what I hear is right, it’s also happpening in Manchester and Edinburgh. This… Read more »