Where’d yo job go? Build or perish.

Good news!

There was a big jump in full time jobs in February!

The bad news?

Some people think this is ‘unsustainable‘ because most of the jobs were in construction or ‘public sector’ and the recent drop in oil prices may have an effect on these parts of the economy.

Screenshot 2015-03-29 18.03.24

 

But in the meanwhile if you’re looking for work and want to know who’s hiring find your nearest construction pit or government office.

Read the original article over at wolfstreet.

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patriotz
Member

@previous: “Several recent (commercial RE) transactions have transpired where traditional domestic players were outbid by Chinese investment groups …”

It is good for the local economy for foreign investors to overpay for commercial RE. They are providing subsidized space for local business, and overpaying property taxes, which means locals pay less. The capital that the local sellers get for the sale can be invested in better priced assets.

In general, any bad investment made by foreigners is good for locals, except when the locals try to make the same bad investments at the same price.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

This chart says it all.

The % of gdp related to resedential construction and the RE industry as a whole is around double the long term average.

If that ain’t an ultra bearish sigh, then I don’t know what is.

The downside will shock the masses. Alberta is simply Ground Zero.

WSR

George
Guest
George
Vancouver has been said to be the next New York or Paris. Now the Conference Board of Canada says Vancouver is going to be the next Calgary…and the basis of our economic strength is, get this, retail! Too funny!!! From the Vancouver Sun a few days ago, but I think it got missed on this blog: “New projections for economic growth from the Conference Board of Canada suggest Vancouver is poised to become the new Calgary. Greater Vancouver’s annual economic growth in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will be at three per cent or higher, outpacing 27 other census metropolitan areas across Canada reviewed by the national research organization… The Alberta economy that British Columbians were envious of not so long ago is, of course, enduring a bust period due to low oil prices. GDP is expected to increase by just… Read more »
JR
Guest
JR

#3 If that isn’t a tenuous base upon which to build your economy I don’t know what is. Mind you, someone has to feed and clothe condo construction workers, traffic cone supply companies, baristas, road hazard gals and realtors. No need to worry about the rest of Canada’s economy either. According to Stephen Poloz and Joe Oliver, manufacturing will compensate for those pesky commodity sectors, building will be endless and there is no limit to the population’s appetite for public hiring.

LL
Guest
LL
LL
Guest
LL

Maybe those idiots at the conference board should read this:

Canada’s economy shrinks 0.1% on weakness in retail, wholesale trade

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-economy-shrinks-in-january-as-oil-collapse-bites/

So much for all those high paying retail jobs that will afford the employees the ability to own a home in Vancouver. Do they even read this shit before they print it?

space889
Guest
space889

Why is it surprising that retail is the largest employer? Take a look around? It’s shops everywhere and all those shops have at least 1 employees. Even in Silicon Valley or Seattle with their huge tech industry, retail is probably still the largest employers. The whole economy is built upon ultimately selling stuff to the average person. I mean really, just how many different brands of clothing stores do we really need?? I can’t tell the difference between 80% of apparel stores in Metrotown but people swear by different brands.

Walmart is the largest employer in US at over 2.5M employees! Bigger than US Army or Federal Gov’t I think.

space889
Guest
space889

Sales activity is going strong and listings not so much. Outside of major economic disaster I can’t see any price relieve this year. This summer looks to be another busy selling seasons with sellers laughing all the way to the bank.

I think bears should just go back to hibernation or just don’t bother to come out of it. Likely nothing for you again this year.

Slagathor
Guest
Slagathor

…Vancouver is going to be the next Calgary…

LOL! Now finally, Vancouver will be universally recognized as World Crass.

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

I think realtors are hurting for listings, when I got home last night there were 3 different realtor ads in my mailbox all saying its a good time to list your home and how comparables are going over asking. For sales sign popping everywhere in east side though, locals cashing out.

space889
Guest
space889

@Corrupt in Canada – how is that any different from previous years? RE industry is a competitive dog eat dog sales industry where the top 20% takes 80%+ of the biz and there are always hundreds of new entrants trying to hit it big.

As for sales signs popping up, I’m not really seeing it on MLS and PaulB stats daily new listings number isn’t showing it either. I don’t think I’ve even seen any 300+ listings this year so far.

I wouldn’t be so pessimstic about the market if there were way more listings. But so far, I’m just not seeing it.

Softy
Guest
Softy

“It is good for the local economy for foreign investors to overpay for commercial RE. They are providing subsidized space for local business, and overpaying property taxes, which means locals pay less. The capital that the local sellers get for the sale can be invested in better priced assets.”

So foreign investors are driving up real estate prices. I’m glad there is consensus on that now. But now Patriotz thinks that it is a good thing.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
I’m not seeing more signs pop up, and the listings don’t signal people cashing out, but I have seen a fair amount of comments of different articles where locals have said they’re cashing out, or are thinking of selling soon & asking advice. It makes sense if you think about it. Say you bought a house for a Million and you still have an $800,000 mortgage on it. If you could now sell that place for 2 million and put the 1.2 million in even a relatively safe & balanced dividend portfolio, you could get close to $5000 a month, surely enough to rent a place that’s as nice as the home you sold. So rent that’s completely covered by your dividend payments PLUS no more $3200 a month mortgage payments. Not to mention, that a well picked balanced portfolio… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

Here is a prime example of why local housing price is high – couples like this who want – bigger better homes despite their existing $2M house; $100K+ in RESPs for their kids under 10; $1M+ in RRSP & TSFA and they are only 40! And if one of them can’t work? “Worst case, we’d sell.”

This are the kind of people you are competing against vangrl! Once you can out compete, out bid then you can worry about HAM neighborhoods.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/couple-asks-pay-down-debt-or-borrow-and-invest/article23632477/

bobwestsiderealtor
Guest
bobwestsiderealtor

@vangrl

“I for one would be cashing out right now if I owned a house.”

This is the thinking that lead you to your current predicament – haunting bear blogs, reaching for macro events and/or any sign that will enable you to get back into your real estate position.

Instead of observing reality and accepting it for what it is, you are trying to force your idea onto it. But that is not how markets work.

I recognize your view is reinforced by a constantly rotating band of disgruntled and disillusioned communists and renters but you would really do better trying to analyze why you yourself sold a winning position.

Do you not believe you are worthy? That your luck was too good to be true?

Next time, will you hang on to the winning ticket or sell too soon?

vangrl
Member
vangrl
If I were to cash out right now, I could buy 3 places with the the money I invested from the 2 condos that I sold, and I’d still have cash left over. My balanced portfolio is up 60% since 2010, apartments are up less than 10%…if that… there isn’t a chance in hell that if I were to have sold them today that I’d get 10% more, that would have pushed it up to the $440,000 range, not feasible for an older 3 story wood framed building., they’re going anywhere from $319,00- $400,000 max. So I’m not in any “predicament” right now, and I’m in no hurry to get back into the market, condos or a house. I may want to buy a house at some point, but I’m not even really sure about that, a part of it… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

“I’m not seeing more signs pop up, and the listings don’t signal people cashing out, but I have seen a fair amount of comments of different articles where locals have said they’re cashing out, or are thinking of selling soon & asking advice.”

they are selling and HAM is buying. if plan to stay, learn mandarin.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

Love that graph – manufacturing tanks while condo construction takes off. Dutch Disease, Canadian style!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Paulb, please could you instead post information on the number of “for sale” signs you see on your way to the grocery store – apparently your daily market stats just don’t cut it 😉

space889
Guest
space889

Local couple – 40 years old, $600K on a $2M house, $1M+ in RRSP and TSFA, $100K+ in RESP for kids, and they want a bigger house cuz $2M house just don’t cut it for them.

Worse case scenario if things go south? Well, just sell it.

This is the attitude and passion that drives local housing. It doesn’t fit the HAM narrative people here like to bash but too bad. These are the kind of people you are competing against for “working family” SFH here, not HAM.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/couple-asks-pay-down-debt-or-borrow-and-invest/article23632477/

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

Everyone is an internet millionaire 🙂

If I had 1 million in cash and thought it was HAM bubble I sure as hell would buy a SFH on the west side.

Ulsterman
Member
I’m struggling to find anything positive in the local real estate news. After many, many years following this market it would appear that, incredibly, it is getting worse and an accelerating pace. Just when you think the madness can’t get worse, it gets much, much worse. Houses in crappy East Van are now million dollar conversation items. Van West is not even worth discussing. My North Burnaby neighbourhood is on fire. Every block has a couple of old timers knocked down to be replaced with a $2m monster. Houses on busy streets in my area that were selling for 900k a year ago are being listed for $1.2m. Now i read in Vangrl’s post that: “Growing numbers of both international and interprovincial migrants will be arriving in Vancouver over the 2016-2019 period. While some 30,000 people a year have been… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@Ulsterman – I hear you, it is indeed unbelievable. It almost seem like there is a magic spring that gets stronger with each mortgage rate cut and simply releases a new torrent of buying frenze here. Realistically the difference in monthly payments and total mortgage amount between 2.7% and 2.25% isn’t that much. However, there seem to be some sort magical power here allows buyers to push house prices much more than what seems reasonable.

Btw, $1M Van East house are so last year. I think the new benchmark price for large part of Van East is now $1.5M to $2M now. A lot of newer Van East 1260 sq ft duplex are asking almost $900K to $1M now.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

@ Ulsterman and Space

I hear you too. I feel like the captain of the Titanic after hitting the iceberg lately. Are people buying crazy or am I crazy not to be buying? Is there no sanity or there so much money in Vancouver which I am not part of.

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

House down the road was listed for 1.5 teardown dunno what it sold for. Its already boarded up. Proposed to make 2 duplexes, not 2 units, 2 duplexes and not even on a huge lot.

Crazy times. We are all screwed either way.

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