BC, Canada, economy, Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all! Crazy market edition.

April 3, 2015 admin

Well hello there!

Looky here, it’s the end of another week already and you probably already know what that means…

Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our standard end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

But first a note. Many news sites have moved to a subscription model which limits views of articles (hello Globe and Mail!). This is a bit of a downer for a news and link round-up feature since you might use up your monthly limited article views on articles that don’t interest you beyond their headline.

So with that in mind we’re switching most of our FFFA links to the original VCI comment that pointed them out. This means you get the context with selected quotes or excerpts to decide if you want to follow the link to the original article and you can see who here originally pointed out the article, but it means you need to click an extra link to read the full story.

Does this change drive you crazy as an overbred purse dog or are you west-coast chill about it? As always your comments about this change are welcome.

OK! Now here are the links to kick off the chat:

–Did you short Genworth at the right time?
–There will be fewer hungry realtors this month
–All about those rates?
–Vancouver is the next… Calgary?!?
–Economy shrinks
–Over 55? Stop paying property tax sucker!
–Who ya gonna blame for this crazy market?
–What is the Difference between bulls and bears?
–An orderly correction please.
–

So what are you seeing out there?

Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend filled with bunnies, eggs and chocolate!

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No More Hospital in Downtown Vancouver?

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[…] couple of weeks ago VCI commenter Corrupt in Canada linked to a story over at VanCityBuzz reporting that BC NDP MLA Spencer Chandra-Herbert was upset […]

Friday Free-for-all! Let’s go weekend!

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[…] threatened by glut -Economic hit spreads beyond oil patch -Does oil price affect Vancouver RE? -Low rates hurting investors? -Salesman predict decade long boom -Divergence between TSX and financial services -John Bairds new […]

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bobwestsiderealtor

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“Smyth: TransLink’s Compass Card fiasco reminiscent of fast-ferries farce”

It sure is. And can you imagine if we gave the keys to develop False Creek to the civic or municipal governments of the day? Fiasco Creek!

They would have turned a moribund industrial base into an undesirable fiscal albatross. Instead we have a vibrant neighbourhood that is a model for urban designers around the world.

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vangrl

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#70 – http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/

This is what I’m seeing, there are more “Michelle YU” for sale signs up right now then there are Cherry blossoms.

Oakridge, Cambie & Granville areas have many entire blocks for sale.

Are they planning on building apartment complexes? If so that will definitely put a bit of pressure on the condo market, I would think….

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vangrl

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“Mr. Soper said the moves by CMHC and Genworth to increase fees is aimed at Canada’s two white-hot urban markets‎, but could be felt elsewhere.”

well this is ridiculous, it will effect Van and Toronto the least.

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Egg Hunt

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Mortgage borrower has choice to include CMHC fees in his mortgage or not. It is not built in calculation.

As Shut it down said, it is better Not to include CMHC fee in mortgage financial wise, but in reality, those who cannot come up with 20% down payment, usually have no choice, or rather, have mentality to include as much as possible in their mortgage.

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Shut It Down Already

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patriotz, not sure what you mean but the CMHC premium is already calculated as a percentage of the loan amount. The problem is that the premium can be spread across the term of the loan rather than being payable in full at closing.

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RFM

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Analysis and commentary worth reading!

Skook’s detailed analysis of the 2014 Sunshine Coast real estate market is now up for review and comment at Vancouver Peak.

See it here: http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=5305&pid=6372#pid6372

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@71: “The insurers have no way to surgically apply it there [Vancouver and Toronto] alone.”

Sure they do. Instead of imposing the premium based on down payment %, impose it based on price.

But that would mean they actually wanted the extra premium and downward pressure on prices to be imposed where they are highest.

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@69: “Toronto detached housing prices soar well past $1 million in sellers’ market”

That’s actually the average detached price in the City of Toronto, which only has a fraction of the detached houses in the GTA.

But certainly the high end is doing well.

@71: “buyers with less than a 10% down payment – usually first-time homeowners.”

“Usually”? Anyone who isn’t a first time buyer should have more than 10% down – it’s a sign of how stretched buyers are – and of weakness at the low end – that some move-up buyers can’t put up that much.

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southseacompany

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“Canada’s house prices could rise further: Economist”, BNN with video

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=586133

“BNN speaks with Emanuella Enenajor, Canada and US Economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch about the housing market in Canada. She says that affordability remains a key issue for the housing sector in the country. She also sees the perception of risks in the Canadian housing market rising, as evidenced by the CMHC announcing the increase in mortgage insurance premiums for homebuyers paying 10% or less on their down payment. Despite this and the stagnant economic growth, she still sees the possibility of house prices continuign to rise this year. She explains why on Business Day.”

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southseacompany

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“Are CMHC and Genworth’s mortgage insurance fee hikes targeting first-time buyers?”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/are-cmhc-and-genworths-mortgage-insurance-fee-hikes-targeting-first-time-buyers

“Canada’s largest private mortgage default insurer raised its premiums Monday, adding to the financial burden for buyers with less than a 10% down payment – usually first-time homeowners.”

“Mr. Soper said the moves by CMHC and Genworth to increase fees is aimed at Canada’s two white-hot urban markets‎, but could be felt elsewhere.”

““The insurers have no way to surgically apply it there [Vancouver and Toronto] alone. So the entire country will feel the impact of the increase,” said Mr. Soper, who nevertheless downplayed the changes.”

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southseacompany

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RE Agent predicts decade long boom;

“Banking city land in the mother of all housing booms”, Business in Vancouver

http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/

“Developers buying entire blocks in Vancouver as land deals double property values”

“Yu, who has handled about 20 Metro Vancouver land assemblies over the past two decades, expects the exuberant pace of land banking – and price acceleration – to continue. “It is up and up,” Yu said, “for 10 more years or even more.” “

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southseacompany

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“Toronto detached housing prices soar well past $1 million in sellers’ market”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/toronto-detached-housing-prices-soar-well-past-1-million-in-sellers-market

“It’s not even close anymore, Canada’s largest housing market is clearly in sellers’ territory, the Toronto Real Estate Board said Tuesday.”

“The strength in Toronto’s housing comes as most of the country is seeing a pullback in sales and prices with the exception of Vancouver, the country’s most expensive market.”

“As the two cities continue to show strength, the sales volume is likely to put more pressure on the average national price. This month Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. increased premiums on mortgage default insurance for people with less than a 10% down payment, a move some say was aimed at Canada’s two hottest markets.”

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George

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Michael Smyth in The Province:

“Smyth: TransLink’s Compass Card fiasco reminiscent of fast-ferries farce”

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Smyth+TransLink+Compass+Card+fiasco+reminiscent+fast+ferries/10950074/story.html

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tedeastside

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wow!!! Americans moving to vancouver cuz it’s gorgeous

yeah that constant rain and cold dreariness is attracting Coconut Grove retirees and Santa Monica Studio executives ….

i’ve heard some whoppers before but this one is pretty funny …
Americans all want to drop 2 million dollars on a vancouver westside shack cuz it’s really gorgeous here….when they could spend half that on a better house in the California Sun or Miami Beach.. and actually have things to do

i lived in America for 8 years, and NEVER met somebody with a desire to even VISIT vancouver let alone drop 2 mill on a house in a colder country with non-existent business opportunity

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@65:

the number of Americans getting into the Vancouver market is booming, according to a published report.

But of course, the article doesn’t give any numbers.

Good thing they didn’t publish this on April 1, I would have thought it was a joke.

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southseacompany

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Hot American money?

“Surge in American buyers keeps Vancouver housing market booming”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Surge+American+buyers+keeps+Vancouver+housing+market+booming/10949990/story.html

Usual RE quotes:

““Everybody wants to be here.””

“Reasons cited remain the same as usual — it’s safe, it’s a good place to raise a family, it’s gorgeous.”

““The market is smoking right now and I just don’t see an end in sight,”

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Egg Hunt

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>Shut it #63 Thanks for the link. That shows in 2005, >who hold or have ever held permanent resident status in Canada, >including naturalized citizens.[15][16] It does not mean new PR in 2005, but could be for last 50 years. Please look a bit up, >Permanent Residents Admitted in 2012, by Top 10 So this should be new immigrant in 2012. There are 2 G7 conutries. 8, I would say poor social securities systems, poluted air, congested populations, or refugee applicable countries. I am not against immigrant, I am asian iimigrant myself and I appreciate what I receive in Canada, but I also have many immigrant friends who constantly telling Canadian system is “so generous”. In my opinion, Canada can attract more talented, innovative, motivated hard working people from the world. Rather than (not all, I know), who are pension,… Read more »

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Shut It Down Already

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Egg Hunt:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Canada#Canadian_immigrant_population_by_country_of_birth_.282005.29

The UK was the biggest source of immigrants to Canada in 2005.

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Egg Hunt

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I am not Ted, but agreed with him at some point.

Who from the developed countries come to Canada, especially to BC to be Permanent resident?

They have similar or better social security system, pension, medical cares, clean air and safety night walk.

We attract large numbers of new comers from developing world, who are better off here, even without decent jobs.

Maybe different story from Toronto, but in Vancouver, I see more and more new people coming from countries with struggling economies and politic systems .

I heard of new immigration rules, now one need more English skills and post secondary degree.
(to secretly eliminaying certain nationalty)

Developed countries with decent pay jobs, fairly safe environment, English speaking, not so crooked polititians as BC holds, who really want to come here…..?

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Egg Hunt

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/bureaucratic-mess-pushes-ontario-man-to-demand-citizenship-for-his-son/article23799402/

This new rule launched in 2009.
In old rule, Canadian citizens who were born outside Canada, their children were automatically granted Canadian citizenship.

Now no more.

Their children go through Permanent resident process first, then apply for citizenship.

I personally feel for this Canadian dad who happened to be born outside Canada, happaned to have child outside Canada.

But all those loopholes, abuse of citizenship systems, without this new rules, potentially hundreds of thousands of Canadian citizen chidren born in outside Canada for next few decades, mostly in Asia.

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Egg Hunt

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/bureaucratic-mess-pushes-ontario-man-to-demand-citizenship-for-his-son/article23799402/

This new rule launched in 2009.
In old rule, Canadian citizens who were born outside Canada, their children were automatically granted Canadian citizenship.

Now no more.

Their children go through Permanent residen process first, then apply for citizenship.

I personally feel for this Canadian dad who happened to born outside Canada, happaned to have child outside Canada.

But all those loopholes, abuse of citizenship systems, without this new rules, potentially hundreds of thousands of Canadian citizen chidren born in outside Canada for next few decades, mostly in Asia.

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Maui Misor

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…“For a first-time home buyer who’s putting five per cent down and applying for a $300,000 mortgage, the new rules would add $6 to their monthly mortgage payment — assuming it’s a 25-year mortgage at 2.79 per cent, “..

Seriously, 6 bucks a month! I was all ready to buy before I read that, now I’m defiantly out!

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Maui Misor

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…Man I really don’t understand this attitude. Just because you’re too lazy to bike in the rain doesn’t mean that everyone else is…. As a not so avid bicycler, but one who commutes to work via bicycle 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year, I can confirm that folks in this city generally do not ride their bicycles to work when it’s crappy out. This year’s weather, being as unusually dry as it is, has lots of folks out but this is absolutely not the norm. It’s not anyone’s ‘attitude’, it just an observation – in a city with typically crappy weather for 9 or 10 months of the year, masses of people are not going to cycle commute to work. Hell, people in this town won’t even take the bus if they have to walk to the bus… Read more »

Bubble? What Bubble?