BC, economy, hype, opinion, prices, USA

Hot American Money?

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43 Comments

If you’re looking for someone to blame for high house prices (anyone but locals!) you’ve got a new scapegoat: Americans.

The Province has an article saying the falling CAD means that US buyers are responsible for the biggest surge in the local market over the last year.

Asian buyers make up about 60 per cent of foreign buyers of Metro Vancouver real estate, according to a story published by the Financial Times on Good Friday.

But buyers from the U.S. accounted for the biggest surge in the Vancouver market in the past year, the story said.

The article also said the Vancouver market is unique because record prices seem to have little impact on buyers’ enthusiasm.

Read the full article here.

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paulb

@Frosty – I’m in N Van where it’s a real mix. Lots of locals and a fair numbers of foreign buyers too. Here lots of young couples and families growing out of townhomes and apartments on the Westside are moving to N Van, E Van etc. in search of some property.

The word on the street is most of the >4M SFH market in West Van and the Westside is foreign buyers. Not typical working class Vancouverites anyways.

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southseacompany

“OECD joins growing chorus warning of a weaker Canadian economy”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/oecd-joins-growing-chorus-warning-of-a-weaker-canadian-economy/article23854916/

“Canada’s economy is softening, the OECD warned today in yet another signal of how the collapse in oil prices is hurting the country.

The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development didn’t blame the softness on crude, but we all know that’s what’s behind it”

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southseacompany

“Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold; next move is up: poll” Reuters http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/09/us-canada-rates-poll-idINKBN0N01R320150409 “One rate cut is probably enough for the Bank of Canada, which is no longer expected to follow up January’s surprise move and instead is likely to see if the economy recovers after a rough start to the year, a Reuters poll showed.” “The median forecast of about 40 economists found rates would stay at 0.75 percent through the first half of next year. They expect the next move to be a rate hike, to 1 percent in the third quarter of 2016, ending next year at 1.25 percent.” “Economists put the odds at 90 percent that the central bank would hold rates steady at its next meeting on April 15. Still, the possibility of another cut remains, and analysts are wary of being caught… Read more »

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southseacompany

“Canada’s mortgage wars hit new low as fixed rate dips to 1.49%”, Financial Post http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-wars-hit-new-low-as-fixed-rate-dips-to-1-49 “A Toronto-based credit union has upped the ante in the spring mortgage market rate wars, a development that is likely to make the country’s most expensive markets even hotter.” “Though the term is only for 18 months, Meridian, Ontario’s largest credit union, has offered what appears to be one of the lowest rates ever on a fixed term at 1.49 per cent.” “As long-term rates continue to drop to previous unseen lows and the Bank of Canada forecast to drop its overnight lending rate again in the near future, some worry that cheap money is driving Toronto and Vancouver housing prices to unsustainable levels.” “David Madini, an economist with Capital Economics who has long predicted a major market correction, said low interest rates could make… Read more »

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southseacompany

“Economy, housing market top the agenda in pre-budget talks”, Toronto Star,

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/04/09/economy-housing-market-top-the-agenda-in-pre-budget-talks.html

“The Housing Market:

Oliver said the government has no intention at the moment of moving to cool off the red-hot housing market. “We are closely monitoring the residential real estate market,” he said. “We’ll take action if necessary.” He was asked about the move Thursday of a Toronto credit union that offered what may be the lowest mortgage rate ever — 1.49 per cent. “We understand and are watching the fact that consumer debt is high,” Oliver remarked. But the pointed out that the credit picture has improved and “default rates are very low.””

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Joe Mainlander

Re: #28; “In 2008 I told CBC TV and Maclean’s Magazine (against some colleagues urging) that the party was over. ”

Then Flaherty, Carney and the CMHC showed up with more booze for the party. After a few years Flaherty got guilty and took some booze way – party slowed down. He left and Joe Owe and Polly walked in the door with a new supply. Party on Canada!!

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Oracle

After reading this article , I believe that the next great war will be against China. God help us if we lose.

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/world/china-building-artificial-islands-in-the-pacific-stoking-tensions-with-neighbours

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Oracle

Thanks Paul B for telling it like it is. But Westside Realtor says his office quiet. Go figure. Lol

I want to flip a detached house (don’t get mad at me bloggers). Is it better to buy in a more expensive HAM area or less expensive non HAM area?

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doc

People of this blog: saying it’s a bubble every second post does not make it a bubble.

I’ve been an avid follower of local housing blogs, VHB, chipman, turner, etc, etc. and at times I’ve believed we were in a bubble.

However, I have never let that cloud my personal decision to have a mortgage and stay in the market – the reason none of the clowns that claim it’s a bubble or the clowns that claim it’s not have magical forecasting abilities.

you can sit on the sidelines for another 10 years or you can get in and see where it goes, really a personal decision that must be considered based on your family needs. /end of rant 🙂

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88

Case of measles confirmed at Terry Fox Secondary School

The health authority says it is linked to the original Air China flight in March carrying two infected students.

http://www.news1130.com/2015/04/09/case-of-measles-confirmed-at-terry-fox-secondary-school/

this school district has implemented a Confucius institute.

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Frosty One

(29): Thanks for the local viewpoint- Who’s buying in your personal experience, is it Americans, Mainlanders, locals, etc? You’re a Sothebys agent and they focus mainly on in international buyers, is that right?

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Best place on meth

@21

University of a Billion Chinese?

I thought it was University of Beijing, China.

BCIT is Billions of Chinese In Training.

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Joe Mainlander

#7
Your assuming the fire started on the WS. What informs your decision on that?
Perhaps, someone poured gasoline over the whole forest, and it’s gone up at the same time.

Considering that there’s been 40,000-50,000 sales a year in Metro Van, and we’ve been adding 18,000 new units to a metro that’s growing 15,000 households per year, I hardly think that the 1,500-1,800 single family homes sales/yr on the WS is really much of a spark

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paulb

I promise to be the first to call the market a dog when things cool off. In 2008 I told CBC TV and Maclean’s Magazine (against some colleagues urging) that the party was over. Sales were down 70% YOY that November. It was a bloodbath! But it’s hot right now and this year will be another strong year for local real estate. When rates climb it should cool things off. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever of course.

New Listings 263
Price Changes 84
Sold Listings 219
TI:13449

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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88

Passenger on another Beijing-Vancouver flight diagnosed with measles

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/passenger-on-another-beijing-vancouver-flight-diagnosed-with-measles-1.2317457

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Slagathor

….Do you think anything these people say should be taken seriously?…

Difference between a bull and Realturd?

The bull shit only comes out one end of the bull.

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patriotz

@21: “University of a Billion Chinese.”

Actually it had that nickname back when Mao was still alive and there were neither visa students nor any immigrants to speak of from Mainland China.

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patriotz

@24: “Condominium prices haven’t kept pace with single-family homes, and that’s made the sector ripe for investment”

Amazing the absurd things these guys say. Condos haven’t gone up as much as SFH, so that makes them a good investment?

“a stronger US dollar takes about a third off the price.”

At CAD = USD .80, (e.g.) CAD $400K = $320 USD

That of course is one fifth off. This clown can’t even do simple arithmetic.

Do you think anything these people say should be taken seriously?

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vangrl

#23 haha ya maybe

“The condominium market is the biggest target for Americans,” says James Upton, an estate agent at RE/MAX Crest Realty Westside. “Condominium prices haven’t kept pace with single-family homes, and that’s made the sector ripe for investment, especially when you consider that a stronger US dollar takes about a third off the price.” Long-time local residents are also boosting sales of condos, adds Upton. “They’re selling their homes for very high prices and then downsizing to condominiums.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/80837826-d24a-11e4-ae91-00144feab7de.html#axzz3WrMxpUFU

well I realize that the last part of that quote completely contradicts another news story that was just put out but…

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Yunak

He said it’s just insane right now, that before it used to be Chinese outbidding Canadians by about 20%, and now it’s Americans outbidding Canadians & then Chinese outbidding Americans.

Perhaps those are American Chinese, buying second homes to be closer to the new motherland once BC becomes China?

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vangrl

It would appear to me that America thinks Canada is in trouble, mostly because they basically say that everyday on the news.

I just can’t imagine what part of the States these people are in that would think buying in an overheated market in a Country who’s dollar keeps falling is a good idea?

Especially after they’ve witnessed 1st hand what happens when Real Estate gets Bubbly…

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Bo Xilai

#3 space889, there a reason why UBC’s nickname is

University of a Billion Chinese.

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vangrl

#Space.

I actually agree with you on this. I can’t believe Americans are interested in buying here, despite our low dollar. It doesn’t make any sense to me. The friends that I have that have moved to the States in the last decade have no interest even visiting here anymore.

That’s just what he said to me. There is “now” interest from Americans as well as Chinese. He did say that the West Side was definitely dominated by Chinese buyers.

Maybe realtors have been told to deflect the issue away from Chinese? who knows.

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StupidityCheck

18: Can you understand why a Vancouverite will pay $2M for a place they could rent for $4k instead? Bubble mentality is not rational.

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