Bob Rennie urges Vancouverites to give up

The owner of a condo marketing company in Vancouver is urging young families to give up on the dream of a single family home and embrace density.

According to Rennie, whose company was involved in high-profile projects like Vancouver’s Olympic Village and the redevelopment of the historic Woodward’s building, planners need to create a lot of density at once in order to drive down prices.

“I know nobody wants to hear that, but unless we’re going to take a big broad brush stroke and add a lot of density, we’re in trouble,” he said.

Read the original article over at the CBC.

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Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

Single Family?

Hey, I gave up buying a condo a long time ago.

Especially as it’s cheaper to rent an apartment now.

Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

Condos are not doing well. In real dollars, they’ve seen a slide over the last 5 years. That effects Rennie’s pre-sales to investors. He wants some of the SF action to move over to condos.

Remember, he’s not counting on end users to buy his pre-sales. These pre-sales are mostly sold to investors. All this hype about millenials, no cars, high density etc is about marketing to pre-sale investors to get them to park their money in a concrete box with the hope they’ll see future gains.

Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

For a different point of view from another annoying business persona;

Rent–don’t buy–a ‘crusty shoe box’ condo: Kevin O’Leary
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=506049

RFM
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RFM
If you look at the comments to that news report, they are uniformly negative! For some time I have had the sense that anyone who bought a Vancouver apartment property after about 2006 was not going to make any money on resale. So, I thought I would take a closer look at the HPI for January from 1999 through 2015 and then break it out a bit. Here is what I found: Between January 1999 (oldest data available from the REBGV website) and January 2015 the MLS HPI for an apartment property in Vancouver increased by $232,060 or 254%, while the CPI increased by 31.9%. Wow! However, that increase came more in the earlier years than more recently. For example, comparing the increase between 2005 and 2015 yields an increase of $144,277 or 160% while the CPI increased 18.1%. Between… Read more »
Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

@#4 Excellent and informative analysis!

Royce McCutcheon
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Royce McCutcheon

0% increase on rent on our house (Richmond).

Based on assessed value and recent sale of nearby house (very similar), price to annual rent ratio is about 40.

Posting because of past discussions related to this topic and had intended to update.

Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

Year HPI 2015$
1999 $150,740 $206,940
2000 $160,030 $213,205 3%
2001 $155,170 $201,833 -5%
2002 $167,220 $213,548 6%
2003 $187,570 $229,778 8%
2004 $220,650 $268,220 17%
2005 $238,523 $283,400 6%
2006 $288,275 $335,259 18%
2007 $332,460 $377,945 13%
2008 $288,275 $323,349 -14%
2009 $334,602 $370,704 15%
2010 $385,487 $421,168 14%
2011 $390,935 $413,527 -2%
2012 $371,500 $385,542 -7%
2013 $358,400 $368,315 -4%
2014 $371,500 $375,965 2%
2015 $382,800 $382,800 2%

bobby
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bobby

Weird how Vic condos are outperforming, median up 9.6% this past year compared to houses at only 3.4%
http://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf
Could be boomers beginning to retire and give up their staircases..?

oneangryslav2
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oneangryslav2
Update on my spouse’s parents’ house in East Vancouver: Just under two months ago I posted that my wife’s parents had put their PNE-area post-WWII bungalow (2-BR) up for sale. About 1000 sq.ft on the main floor, with an unfinished basement (but with 8-ft. ceilings, which would be the dealmaker). They had been renting the house from about 2001, when they finally decided to purchase in the summer of 2010. They paid just over 600K. They just sold (w/out subjects) for 1.05 million. I haven’t been too inquisitive, but my sense is that the young family who bought (I can’t believe that it wasn’t bought by a builder!) had been interested in the place for over a month, but would not go over $1 million. My hunch is that the CMHC loan insurance limit was making it impossible for the… Read more »
Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

My mistake on that #7 post. Hit return too early by mistake.

Was just going to compare the HPI in 2015$. Hope it makes sense.

Notice the trend and how it follows interest rate/CMHC changes;

2000 (+3%)
2001 (-5%)
This 00-01 recession hit, pus the911 attack. Interest rates dropped to 1%
2002 (+6%)
2003 (+8%)
CMHC reduced mortgage insurance premiums by 15 percent and eliminated the homeowner price ceilings.
2004 (+17%)
2005 (+6%)
2006 (+18%)
CMHC: Longer amortization periods (from 25 years up to 40 years). 0% down payment.
2007 (+13%)
Financial crisis hits.
2008 (-14%)
Interest rates drop to near zero. CMHC buy-back from banks (IMPP). US Fed starts QE.
2009 (+15%)
2010 (+14%)
Flaherty tightens CMHC standards.
2011 (-2%)
Flaherty tightens CHMC some more
2012 (-7%)
Flaherty and Carney out. Oliver & Poloz in.
2013 (+2%)
2014 (+2%)

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Joe Oliver tells realtors Ottawa will stay out of housing market because no bubble seen”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/joe-oliver-tells-realtors-ottawa-will-stay-out-of-housing-market-because-no-bubble-seen

“Canadian Finance Minister Joe Oliver said he’s confident the country’s housing market isn’t in a bubble, setting aside any further action to curb activity.”

“The government, which has made four changes to housing finance rules since 2008 to cool booming sales and rising prices, is satisfied with market dynamics today and isn’t seeking further reform, Oliver said.”

hahaha
Guest
hahaha

#9,

it’s angrily that other people make money, and you dont eh ! you should go begging your in-law for a cut.

Ryan
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Ryan

Bob Rennie; the man who ruined Vancouver.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

“Condo marketer selflessly advises against non-condo alternative. More details at 11.”

Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

@#13 You’re giving him too much credit. It’s easy to become some sort of rock start condo salesman during a period when condos flew off shelf like shoes at an A&N sale. He didn’t have to do any work for that.

Some posts even refer to him as a ‘developer’, which he isn’t. He’s never built anything. He isn’t a developer anymore than a car salesman is a auto manufacturer. He’s just the sales clerk for the developers.

RFM
Guest
RFM
#13: now, to be fair, Rennie had a lot of help! Like these guys: Bob Rennie – white guy – extremely rich Ian Gillespie (Westbank) – white guy – super rich Francesco Aquilini – white guy – mega rich Terry Hui (Concord) – asian guy who looks white – ultra rich Nat Bosa – white guy – extremely rich Robert Bosa – ditto Jim Bosa – ditto Ryan Bosa – ditto Shahram Malek & Peter Malek (those Millennium con artists) – white guys – succeeded, failed, made money anyway (bailout by the City of Vancouver) Rosanno De Cotiis (Onni) – white guy – super rich Norman Cressey – white guy – super rich Michael Audain (Polygon) – white guy – extremely rich Union white guys (Concert) – Oh, yes, they are white – very rich Marcello de Cotiis (Amacon) –… Read more »
Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

@#13 You’re giving him too much credit. It’s easy to become some sort of rock start condo salesman during a period when condos flew off shelf like shoes at an A&N sale. He didn’t have to do any work for that.

Some posts even refer to him as a ‘developer’, which he isn’t. He’s never built anything. He isn’t a developer anymore than a car salesman is a auto manufacturer. He’s just the sales clerk for the developers.

crikey
Guest
crikey
Aaaaand, in New Zealand the elected officials finally begin to clue in: “Capital gains on residential properties bought and sold within two years will soon be taxed by the Government.” … “Other measures announced today will require all non-resident buyers and sellers to provide a tax identification number from their home country along with identification such as a passport. They must also have an Inland Revenue Department number and New Zealand bank account.” … Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei said the announcement was a good start but more needed to be done. “Well, it’s about time that they, you know, stop sitting on their hands and actually do something about the housing crisis in Auckland. “They have other tools that they can use as well. They need to restrict foreign ownership of New Zealand properties, looking at progressive ownership… …… Read more »
Dont split the vote
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Dont split the vote

You will see many headlines like these. Don’t waste vote on NDP and Greens. Vote either Cons or Libs.

Corporate media and pollsters behind this.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-jumps-into-3-way-race-with-conservatives-liberals-1.3079391

crikey
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crikey
From yesterday’s thread, spacedOut999 provides the usual comic relief: “I am so in awe of the superiority of our democratic system where the government don’t give a damn about the people paying the taxes and elected them. So much better than the communist dictatorship….” — And so, when it is pointed out that virtually all communist countries have gigantic problems with human rights, pollution/environment, slave labour, etc, etc… problems that overwhelming dwarf the problems we (and any democracy) are having…. he still defends the beloved comrades, well, because ‘reasons’. “China has its problems as all developing countries” ….”It is part of the development process every country go through.” LOL. 5000 year process, 10,000 year? Maybe 15,000 year? Yeah its a long process but all that suffering and human misery must be worth it? Keep defending asserting its superiority over democracy… Read more »
Charlie
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Charlie

Yes, its the predominantly white real estate industry owners and predominantly white Boomer generation who want to keep foreign investment untouched.

And who are asking for foreign investor tax?

The, by default, Multicultural young middle-class. How ironic is that.

squeak
Member
squeak
#9 Thanks for the anecdotal report, anything anecdotal makes the stats come alive. I am just shaking my head at the madness, yes, hoping to make huge money on the shack a few years down the road. Vancouver does not even have those jobs that would pay for such a monsterous mortgage, so it has to be offshore money. So what is in it for a honest hardworking taxpaying Canadian? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. This city is dead for young people and for many of those up to 45 or 50. It has nothing to offer but poor paying jobs, and worlds most expensive housing. Frankly there is no reason to live here for taxpaying citizens but lots of good reasons to leave. Should you get tied down to a mortgage (unless you somehow have a bank of mom/dad, or access to… Read more »
UBC in crisis mode
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UBC in crisis mode

FMF (Foreign Money Flow) is accelerating (from Vancouver RE board data):
Sales x Median selling price = FMF in Van West and West Van (both are HAM only market)

Year (Jan.-Apr.)/ Van West / West Van /total ($ billions)

2012 / 1.14 / 0.50 / 1.64
2013 / 1.01 / 0.35 / 1.36
2014 / 1.40 / 0.51 / 1.91
2015 / 1.81 / 0.86 / 2.67 (billion dollars)

oneangryslav2
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oneangryslav2
hahaha Says: May 20th, 2015 at 11:30 am 12 Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see. #9, it’s angrily that other people make money, and you dont eh ! you should go begging your in-law for a cut. I’m not “angrily” [sic] at all. In fact, I’m thrilled, since it may mean that they’ll be able to pay us back the almost $10,000 that they’ve borrowed from us since they purchased the house–we paid the property tax one year and helped out with three mortgage payments. The F-I-L, you see, retired in 2012 and his monthly income dropped about 40%. As a result, he hasn’t been able to sleep the last year-and-a-half worrying about how he’d make his mortgage payment. The M-I-L has been on disability for almost two decades so her income is negligible. By the… Read more »
vangrl
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vangrl

“There is a shortage of product,” said Bob Rennie, principal of the Rennie Group and considered the top condominium sales agent in the city. Rennie said condominium prices are up 4.5% from a year ago and young buyers are increasingly leaning on parents to help with a condo purchase. ”

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/5/sellers-market-takes-grip-condo-market/

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