Friday Free-for-all!

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s Friday-free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

CMHC: All is well in Vancouver
New Highrise to have ‘poor doors’ 
Alberta impact on BC Real Estate?
Ontario condo market a risk to economy
US Mortgage rates rising

So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
Member

@previous:

B.C. Housing Minister Rich Coleman dismissed the idea of provincial intervention, however, arguing it would be unfair to people who have already invested in housing, including locals.

That sounds familiar, where did I hear that before? Oh here:

Would you support policies that would lead to a drop in real estate values?
People who already own homes would be unfairly hurt by a policy that would lead to a drop in real-estate values. If the current homeowner has taken out a mortgage for say 90% of the worth of their home, and values then drop by 10%, the homeowner has lost 100% of her or his equity.

First one to guess the author of that quote gets… well a thumbs up.

crabman
Guest
crabman

For those that haven’t seen it yet, here’s strong evidence foreign buying is driving the market now.

https://vancouverflippersintrouble.wordpress.com/2015/05/05/mystery-solved/

Wearehere
Guest
Wearehere
Here is how our elite: Robertson, RE commentators. Premier, Garth Turner, Rich Coleman, Banks etc have talked the off-shore buying issue – as more and more people, including Realtors have said that off-shore buying is dominating our RE market: 1) There is minimal off-shore buying of Vancouver RE 2) There is not enough data to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is significant offshore buying. 3) What little there is, is not enough to move the market and it is only at the high end 4) Yes there maybe off-shore buying but how can we stop without hurting those who own and we are a free market. The worst of these IMO is Garth Turner, he sets himself up to be a man of the people, advising on RE and investments and yet so completely misleads them… Read more »
George
Guest
George
This deserves a re-post. Vancouver recently lost one of it’s oldest buildings, the Legge Mansion, in order to save a tree. Now it looks like one of downtown Vancouver’s oldest and most significant heritage buildings, the Sinclair Centre, is going to have 29 storeys of additional office density added to it. Outrageous. Note the article points out it will be impossible to add that to the building without compromising the integrity of the building. It also notes that this is part of the Greenest City initiative of City Hall. What is so green about destroying our heritage? They say it’s green to concentrate office space around hubs like waterfront. Oh really? I don’t think that’s green at all given that most office workers can’t afford to live anywhere close to Waterfront Station. Isn’t part of our problem that so much… Read more »
Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

@#1 Good old lefty and COPE candidate Tim Louis. Who was known for wearing a Che Guevera t-shirt.
All politicians are on the side of the 65% of who own homes.

Shlomo
Guest
Shlomo

> For those that haven’t seen it yet, here’s strong evidence foreign buying is driving the market now.

> https://vancouverflippersintrouble.wordpress.com/2015/05/05/mystery-solved/

This so-called strong evidence is just someone who can’t analyze his own charts. Just look at the clusters. The bulk of the increases are still in the sub-1-million range. All it shows is that the second phase of the bubble, as Michael puts it, has lesser appreciation than the first phase. Probably because the locals are getting tired and tapped out.

Sure, maybe some super-rich dude from Guangdong is responsible for those outlying specks over the 2 million mark, but the majority of dots is still well under the CMHC limit.

hahaha
Guest
hahaha

good morning,

wake up and smell the fresh air in the best place on earth. how is the bear desperate index this morning?

have a nice weekend, you all.

space889
Guest
space889

@Shlomo – I think all his charts indicates is that people are getting more speculative as RE price “bubble” kept on going.

As I said in reply to his post before, if you think housing price is going up as a sure bet, what would you do? Be conservative and invest in lower priced housing units or go big and borrow the max and buy the most expensive house you can get for max leveraged gain? I think most would go big for the big gain, not conservative.

space889
Guest
space889

@George – Uhm….you know this concept called progress? Maybe you should look it up. Applying your logic, we should basically do what? Never redevelop anything that’s older than 30yr, 40yr, 50yrs old?

Most of heritage downtown buildings have already been redeveloped into condos, and downtown has a lack of office space more than a lack of condos. As long as they don’t demolish the building, I think I’m ok with it.

btw, if you really want to be environmentally friendly, eat less beef. Look it up! Cutting out or drastically reducing beef consumption have a much higher impact on environment than less driving. Beef production in North America contributes about 1/4 to 1/3 of all methan emissions globally and methan is ~22x worse for global warming than CO2 from your cars.

crabman
Guest
crabman

@6: You might want to look at that chart again, Shlomo. 8 of 9 areas with a benchmark price above $1 million appreciated more than all areas where the benchmark was below $1 million.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Artificially low interest rates worldwide a recipe for disaster”, The Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/artificially-low-interest-rates-worldwide-a-recipe-for-disaster/story-fnc2jivw-1227344008395

“Regulators seem to believe pinning interest rates to the floor for as long as possible is the best path to sustainable economic growth. But there is a darker, corrosive side to the money deluge, whose shadow looms larger the longer interest rates are artificially low.”

“Distortion is obvious: the higher prices are pushed artificially, the further they have to fall, making any crash all the more damaging. More generally, when the price of money is artificially distorted it is difficult for businesses to evaluate the real cost of borrowing over the longer term with confidence. Artificially cheap money makes inherently poor investments profitable.”

space889
Guest
space889
@crabman – Cuz when you think the prices are just going to keep going up, what would you do? Buy the modest low price house? Or get in on the action and buy the most expensive house you can get and hence get more profit?? If I think some investment is a sure bet then I certainly isn’t going to hedge my bets by going in very conservatively. Just like when you think you got the nut hand in poker, are you going to check or bet/call the minimal amount? Or are you going to try and get everyone to go all in with you? All the charts show to me are what is termed rational bubble behavior/exuberance. Not some foreign investment mania. If you want to proof foreign investments then Patriotz have already laid out a very simple fool… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@southseacompany – I have one slightly issue with that. If I’m a company and I can issue say a 20yr bond at 5% then I think that’s a pretty sure way to lock in some long term financing rates. So that wouldn’t really be an issue for me. Rather, the problem is the return I can get on a project when the economy is so sick that we still 0% rate after 6 years.

crabman
Guest
crabman

@space – Your theory didn’t happen in any of the US markets. In every case I’ve ever looked at, the low-end appreciated more during the frenzy and crashed more during the bust. What’s going on now in Vancouver is similar to what happened in the early 90’s when well-to-do people from Hong Kong were immigrating.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1440792/immigration-property-prices-and-vancouver-experts-view

And I would love to look at ownership data to confirm my position. If you can provide a link to this data, I will be all over it.

space889
Guest
space889

@crabman – You have a choice of 2 investments and you are sure both will go up. However, you only have $10K, and while you can borrow another $50K, you can only invest in 1 investment option.

Option 1 – Cost $10K, will go up 50%. You can buy at most 2 units for a total of $20K.

Option 2 – Cost $60K, will go up 25%. You can only buy 1 unit due to your borrowing limit.

Which one will you buy? The cheap one that goes up 50% or the expensive one that goes up 25%??

Think about it.

space889
Guest
space889

@crabman – btw, if we actually have the hard data then we wouldn’t really be arguing about foreign money influence would we? Unfortunately the one who can get the data free/cheaply wouldn’t compile it, even to sell it. So we are left here guessing and arguing.

For individuals to do what Patriotz is proposing, it would probably cost a few million $$$ in land title search fee alone.

patriotz
Member

Infographic: Canada’s households now owe a record $1.8-trillion

Some argue that since asset values have been rising even faster than borrowing, households are able to carry their larger debts.

The presentation fails to point out the flaw in this argument. Yes I can retire my debts by selling my house, but the buyer has to borrow just as much (probably more) to buy it. So asset values don’t allow households in aggregate to carry debts. Only incomes do.

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

re: New Highrise to have ‘poor doors’

I just updated my earnings charts.

Since March 2009 earnings are

Up 29% in #Alberta
Up 20% Nationally
Up 17% in #Quebec
Up 16% in #Ontario
Up 15% in #BC

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Perhaps that should read “Some Provinces to have poor doors”

In the last 10 years average SFD Prices are up:
109% in Vancouver
98% in Calgary
91% in Toronto

and median Family Incomes are only up:
29% in BC
60% in AB
29% in ON

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Hey Mo Yeung Ching Chang, your money looks so clean – what do you use to launder it?

ANCIENT CHINESE SECRET! 😉

space889
Guest
space889

@BPOM – Jealous loser?

popgoesthebubble
Member
VanRant
Member
VanRant

Corruption, Greed and Murder….

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1348092-did-chinas-former-security-chief-order-the-murder-of-a-family-in-the-us/

And we welcome people like these to our country. How far had we fallen.

space889
Guest
space889

@popgoesthebubble – What about local companies that are majority owned by foreigners? Would they be prevented from acquiring housing?

And exactly what is a foreigner? Do TFW count? How about foreign students? How those here on a work visa only?

Or those Cdn citizens in Lebonan that has Cdn citizenship but hasn’t set foot in Canada since Isreal’s last invasion?

Or those in HK who hasn’t been to Canada since they grad from local university? But they like to cash out their HK apartment winnings and put it into Van condo for future retirement?

What about kids born to Cdn citizens outside of Canada?

SCha
Guest
SCha

Just seen that video with Rich Coleman using immigration as a tool to cool any grass-roots movement building to limit external Foreign real estate investment. The two things are totally separate! Yet again, more attempts to confuse.

He says they’re (BC liberals) not even considering it. So sad to see the political games going on to protect global cash and the rich at the expense of the local worker.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

looking forward to hearing patriotz drone on about how the petition is blah, blah, blah.

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