Friday Free-for-all!

It’s the end of another glorious week here in paradise! Let’s enjoy another weekend of world class premium quality lifestyle in one of the most exciting places on earth!

This is the Friday Free-for-all, our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat, Bon Appetite!

Totally not ‘mind-numbingly boring’
Nuanced debate.
Look who jumped on the bandwagon
Entitled to what?
The terror of a speculation tax
‘Free market’ means what?
Don’t need data. You’re racist.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme

Vancouver is mind-numbingly boring because:

1) Van is a “hedge city”/safe haven for foreign SS (obsessed w/ RE so no culture/only $ making development)

2)?

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

One trick pony, who’s act is getting old and tired.

Gravity is weighing down.

Without lower mtg rates, the weakness will reassert in months.

Jmho

WSR

Shlomo
Guest
Shlomo
Reposted from Thursday’s thread for better visibility: One thing that would really help is if we had a whistleblower realtor. Entire regimes have been toppled by whistleblowers leaking data, and in comparison, a data dump of all RE sales in Canada or BC over the last 40 yrs ought to be child’s play to anyone with access to the system. (Just talk to a software dude if you don’t know how to dump the database to a text file that can be leaked, a la Wikileaks) This is the missing piece of the puzzle the scumbags in power are sitting on, and this is exactly what will bust the floodgates wide open. If this happens, Rennie/Robertson/Clark are gonna go through an inquisition that makes the one Sepp Blatter/FIFA are currently undergoing seem like a walk in the park. Any realtors… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

So stealing private data is fine when it suits your purpose?

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#3

not so far out of reach.

I’m pretty positive there are more than a few realtors that aren’t as happy about this as people think.

You can safely assume that more and more of the high end, huge commission listings, are being listed with only mandarin speaking realtors and sold to mandarin speaking buyers agents clients. A scenario that is sure to be more and more the case if things continue the way they are.

I’ve already seen more than a few comments, on the petition and in comment section of articles, where Realtors are speaking out.

Might actually win them some future customers if they were to ban together and speak out.

Dave
Member

What’s to whistle blow? Shlomo what data are you looking for?

Many Franks
Member

Al Jazeera covers Vancouver’s housing crisis…

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/vancouver-housing-costs-receive-international-attention-video/

A 35-minute segment that’s actually pretty good. Not coincidentally, note who they didn’t automatically include on the panel: a realtor.

Loon
Guest
Loon
I received a letter in the mail the other day, it had the “To: the owner of ### street” as the addressee in a pretty fancy handwriting. I thought this was some elaborate realtor trick. I was kind of right, I opened it up and there was a lovely card inside, with an artistic image of a bike and a ball on the front and the word “play” beneath. Inside the card was a handwritten, heart wrenching plea from a couple who “loved our community and wanted to start a family here”. They wanted to buy my place and if I was interested in selling I should contact them on their phone number. They included a picture, they seemed to be a nice enough looking white couple with a dog. But the whole thing seems a bit desperate to me.… Read more »
Loon
Guest
Loon
Shlomo
Guest
Shlomo
#6 We would need data that would help us find the root cause of unaffordability in Vancouver, be it foreign ownership, speculation, flipping, high-ratio loans or whatever 1. Date of each property status change, this would allow us to construct a price history of each property, as seen on Zillow, for example. We’ll know that the house on “1234 Some Street” was listed at 299K, sold at 300K, relisted at 440K, sold at 460K, relisted at 500K, sat for 3 months, sold at 700K etc etc. For an example of what Zillow does, look here: http://www.zillow.com/homes/recently_sold/45814063_zpid/24.684106,-81.384208,24.651776,-81.435192_rect/14_zm/ and click on Price/Tax History. 2. The mortgage information for each sale: was it cash, or 5% down, or xyz %. This will help us see how leveraged each sale is. Perhaps the market is not as leveraged as we thought and everyone is… Read more »
Dave
Member

Loon, this is probably a new HAM tactic now that the easy sellers are gone. The remaining owners can only be shaken out with emotion. Expect more heart wrenching notes in the future.

Dave
Member

And you guys thought MAC Marketing was bad. Pretty soon, they will have a family a white actors driving around in a Subaru knocking on doors looking for a home.

Dave
Member
Shlomo, most of that information is already available. You can order the price history of a property. It costs money to do of course, but it’s there. If you want to see what the market is doing as a whole, those numbers are readily available. Obviously, more data is better and that happens to be free, so I’m not sure what you would be hoping to find in the price history of individual properties. Foreign buyers are tracked. These numbers are published. In my opinion, the data doesn’t tell the whole story though because we know there are far greater foreign buyers that is captured. CMHC publishes data about first time buyers but not for individual properties. That’s private information. But again, aggregate data is better than single data points, so I am not sure what you would be hoping… Read more »
Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

“Free market’ means what?”

Well – transparency would help and so would access to data.

I revisited a theme I looked at in 2013 (Canada’s increasing preoccupation with armament production and sales) and to accompany my beef, I added a chart of Canada’s Current Account since 1946.

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/state-of-war

It looks clear to me that Canadians shipping arms to incendiary regions of the world has not improved our ability to do anything other than keep our national consumption in high gear at the expense of improving our ability to employ, produce and export. No wonder news of this sort is secreted away.

soloho
Guest
soloho
The data can be bought but is only for a single property. Zillow let’s you compare across the board. We really need statistics and they can’t be produced one house at a time. Percentages and amount of leverage averages, etc. Having this data would also make clear if chinese are buying everything, buy now or be priced out fowrever is a scare tactic or real. some exmaples 5,6,7 below can’t be done with current mis-information. #6 #10 5. How big are Hellocs and how much trouble can they cause. 6. Collusion. Is the same Canadian Development Corp. buying the houses, then selling it to Canadian Investment Corp. ? And are they repeating the patter blocks at a time. Are they just creating shadow demand for quick flips and raising the prices ? 7. Numbers manipulation. Are the franken numbers honest… Read more »
Dave
Member

It’s all available other than your ‘inside information bit’. It just takes time and money.

The only real ‘insider trading’ in the real estate business is colluding with City employees who know what’s going to happen with zoning, or will be friendly in getting new zoning through. That happens in real life, but you’re not going to capture it with any statistics.

Real estate is not a cartel. Nobody is prevented from buying and selling anything. It’s a free market.

Nobody is manipulating numbers. The closest we ever got to that was freezing the BC Assessment for a year during the Financial Crisis.

Sold2Soon
Member
Sold2Soon

RE: Loon #8.

So far I’ve only seen flyers of the beaming realtor showing multiple listings with “SOLD!” signs on them. Who knows, one day it may be the desperate realtor sending notes imploring the homeowner to help out with a sale?

Dave
Member

I had a home owner make me an offer after viewing their listing. They owned and lived in the house next door and their sales pitch was we really want you to be our neighbours. Pick whatever of the two houses you want most and we’ll live in the other, and then our kids can play together and we can have BBQs.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

@Shlomo:

I wonder if there could be a good sampling approach that would allow agreed-upon analyses of different regions in the Lower Mainland over the last many years. And then what it would cost to execute that analysis. If the cost wasn’t too high, perhaps an Indiegogo/kickstarter campaign could be launched to support such an effort. I’d be willing to contribute to something like that if it was well formed and it did not presuppose any conclusions about the role of foreign money.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Having the imprimatur of someone from, say, a UBC or SFU Statistics department for the proposed analysis would be pretty great too.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
From the UK: “Record low home loans pose rate conundrum for consumers and BoE”, Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/84721a2a-05ec-11e5-b676-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3bYOT451r “The fall in the oil price and inflation dipping below zero in April have transformed expectations in interest rate markets, so the first rate rise is now expected a year from now in the second quarter of 2016. Thereafter, investors have listened to the BoE’s insistence that any rises will be “limited and gradual”.” “The conundrum for consumers and for the BoE is that the more effective this stimulus proves, the more likely the Monetary Policy Committee is to raise rates earlier and faster than currently expected. Such cheap mortgage deals may be strictly time-limited.” “Financial market interest rate expectations often move quickly once sentiment changes, and not much needs to change for the BoE to begin to think about slightly earlier and… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Terrifying stats show how many traders have no idea what real interest rates look like” Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/traders-are-so-young-they-only-know-zero-interest-rates-2015-5#ixzz3bYQZWxni “30% of traders are so young they have NEVER experienced anything other than zero interest rates.” “66% of traders have no adult memory of the dot-com crash of 2000.” “Only 43% of traders are old enough to remember the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2007 credit crisis — the two most significant economic cycles of the last 15 years.” “For those above a certain age, the current interest rate environment is an anomaly. Zero interest rates are an emergency measure. The kind of extreme act that only happens in a worst-case scenario, when a central bank needs to rescue an economy that can’t otherwise function unless the cost of obtaining cash is negligible.” “The fear is that the current generation of traders… Read more »
crikey
Guest
crikey
Just a reminder to all to always to be true to yourself and think fully for yourself — you should never be swayed by what seems like a popular opinion or public consensus on a message forum. Take Russia’s troll factory, which works hard at changing public opinion around the world: “Kremlin trolls,” the men and women work 12-hour shifts around the clock, flooding the Internet with propaganda aimed at stamping President Vladimir Putin’s world vision on Russia, and the world.” … “those in her department had to bash out 160 blog posts during a 12-hour shift.” … “bout 400 people work in the building. A video he posted on YouTube this spring gave a rare glimpse inside the building; in one room trolls were shown sitting shoulder-to-shoulder at their computers.” … “the trolls receive daily talking points on what… Read more »
@#22
Guest
@#22

Not @you. Voting the traders down since they have basic maths, and possibly a tertiary education.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

white ppl have been creating and using systems to give them an unfair advantage for hundreds of years. will that primal urge be able to stand up to HAM? time will tell. my suggestion is to learn mandarin. can’t hurt!

wpDiscuz