Many Franks says:
With the “Give Us The Data” rally upcoming, I think it would be useful to collect past unanswered calls for data. I’ve started a thread for this:
http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=5329
If the speakers at that rally can say that consistent, clear calls for data have gone unanswered for half a decade, rather than “hey, does anyone have data?” I think it’ll be much tougher for the old “we shouldn’t do anything until we know more” line to prevail.
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I have heard many people say the market has slowed down. Seasonally the market usually slows down in the summer. I’ve noticed in my neigbourhood that there were some very high priced bidding war sales during the spring. New listings are now asking these high prices or even higher, but they are sitting on the market much longer and with many more options.
Could the irrational exuberance of the spring followed by a seasonal summer top lead to a panic of listings in the fall combined with buyer exhaustion? This could play out like a classic bubble starting with the blow off top in the spring.
@172: Well yeah. I meant BESIDES that.
171,
The Act is to buy very tight pants from Lululemon on sales, or 2-for-1 high tea.
@168: I had this conversation recently. Expectation of further increases could definitely drive low inventory. Look at the spike this year after so many years of gains already. Why not, right? If I were an owner considering selling, this possibility would probably occur to me. I have no idea how this plays out in the near-term, but 2015 is clearly the year where the battle lines on this topic went public and were drawn brightly. Those on the 1) outside of the property market or 2) holding condos that aren’t appreciating quickly enough to participate (i.e. on the low rungs of a busted property ladder) are vocal, angry, and looking for solutions. Those on the other side reaping benefits from the status quo – and the politicians who support them – are nakedly saying that these other people don’t matter… Read more »
@vanFlippers.
Nice try.
Some of my extended relatives immigrated via Winnipeg through their PNP ‘blood’ program and another family via Quebec. Stats show Winnipeg and Montreal as destinations. Guess where they are now.
Nice try though.
Loon, that is my premise exactly.
Buzz is gone from our mkt, it has just fizzled out.
Wait for true rate hikes and watch the rats run for the exits.
Classic herd mentality at play, now during the mania phase, and soon as we move to Fear.
WSR
What does a low inventory really mean ?
Perhaps that more people are holding back from selling, suggesting they are waiting for higher gains in the future ?
This withholding of inventory could lead to a potential tidal wave of inventory at a later date, what happens if that combines with a higher interest rate – bingo, lower sale prices.
This is speculation of course, but an entirely possible scenario.
More Americans Are Renting, and Paying More, as Homeownership Falls
Here is the house pictured in the article:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/339-Livingston-Street-,-westfield-nj_rb/
Note the railway on the map. This house is walking distance to the station. It’s a 55 minute ride to Manhatten. Zillow estimates the house would sell for $257K and rent for $1,653/mo.
The article gives the main reason why housing is so much cheaper in the US – there are so many people who can’t buy or don’t want to buy.
The rally made the news! VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – People were holding signs reading “No more bogus data” and “Ignorance is not bliss” at an affordable housing rally. The event called the “Give Us Data” rally was aimed to put pressure on all three levels of governments to research who is buying homes in Metro Vancouver. People want to know things like the percentage of homes bought by foreign investors, how many are purchased just get flipped as well as left empty. UBC Planning professor Penny Gurstein who was one of the speakers says it’ll help bring solutions to what many call a “crisis.” “[By getting the data] It makes it very obvious what the issue is, so you identify the issues, and you try and actually make policies and programs that address those issues. Dana also feels it’ll get… Read more »
@Oracle – Tidal wave of immigrants? Then why is population growth in Metro Vancouver less than the national average?
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150211/cg-a001-eng.htm
As to your statement that “High prices are a result of the highest per capita immigration rate in the world.” Here are the actual per-capita immigration rates for Canadian CMAs:
Regina – 1.83%
Saskatoon – 1.79%
Winnipeg – 1.67%
Calgary – 1.44%
Toronto – 1.31%
Vancouver – 1.30%
@142: “One hell of a lot of people would be prepared to take a hit in equity in order to restore some sanity and prevent this part social unhappiness. You have no evidence to suggest otherwise” The evidence is that not one politician is willing to advocate direct policies to bring down RE prices. Including this one: People who already own homes would be unfairly hurt by a policy that would lead to a drop in real-estate values. If the current homeowner has taken out a mortgage for say 90% of the worth of their home, and values then drop by 10%, the homeowner has lost 100% of her or his equity. @142: “However if you’d like to explain why boomer riddled, SFH dominated, Point Grey voted Christ Clark out” Because it’s an academic dominated riding (it includes UBC) which… Read more »
#153 – Gee WSR, I keep noticing these cussing similarities with someone else who for years posted lame cheerleading posts.
Romeo Jordan Says:
June 30th, 2011 at 9:46 am 42
cico – go f yourself!!
@sclomo
Then keep blowing hot air for all I care. Maybe the naive are meant to suffer.
#159
Oracle, you persist with your race-baiting. Immigration is one tiny aspect of the problem, but you relentlessly try to reduce it to simple entities like “black” and “white”. Sort of like religious nuts who try to reduce the complex nuances of life to simple entities like “heaven” and “hell”.
In any case, if you think there are too many “brown” immigrants, and you are “brown”, as you claim to be, then am I the only one missing the obvious next step for you?
Education is key.
Got to get word across that massively reducing immigration is not racist.
The haves will have made so much money that private schools and private healthcare will be welcomed. The have nots will continue to blow hot air on blogs like these.
Survival of the fittest. make sure you don’t get brainwashed growing up. Nothing has changed in a thousand years.
Rally won’t solve anything.
High prices are a result of the highest per capita immigration rate in the world. To complicate matters further, this tidal wave of immigrants wants to settle in either Toronto or Vamcouver.
The only thing that is going to bring this down is if There is a white backlash against these immigrants. Since I’m brown, I guess I’ll be on he other side.
If it continues, Vancouver (and BC) will be more Asian centred than British and with governments to match because of a simple majority.
profit from the chaos.
Keep saving.
Follow the right woman.
Keep saving.
Forget Christy.
Keep saving.
Watch Janet and the FED.
Keep saving.
Was at the rally. Paltry turnout, around 120 people at best.
Pete Fry was best orator, some good lines and in the right direction.
Eveline was there, she said it was her last planned event for the summer. It must be a lot of work to organize this and then be so demoralizing when a lot of people don’t show up. Kudos to her for persevering and I was grateful for the chance to participate.
Someone else needs to step up to the plate and carry on her good work IRL. In the meantime, we can continue circlejerking each other off in here.
Hehe. The people that email me never ever post in the comment section. Hope my followers don’t figure that out. Hehe. Sell sell sell and invest with me. I accept HAM even tho it not exist you bigots. Hehe. Oh, just got another 2 emails for the weekend. Hehe. Betcha they’ll never post in the comment section. Hehe.
Folks, 2007 just called, they want their blog back.
Give you credit for perseverance, Patriotz must be up to 100,000 posts by now. Hey, where’s Drachen?
WSR, your post wouldn’t have been so comical had you not immediately followed paulb’s 140% sell/list stats.
Well done.
The Top…like your name. We’ve Topped might also be a good one.
Yes, it is slowing and it’s starting to be noticeable. Admittedly it’s a modest shift thus far, but without a further interest rate drop to act as a catalyst I’m hard pressed to think of what will stop the market from continuing to slow.
SIDA, go F yourself you suckhole.
WSR
New Listings 221
Price Changes 85
Sold Listings 309
TI:13234
2 realtors have publicly stated this week that detached market is slowing!
Could we finally be there?
What are Paul’s stats for? Condos, houses, all of Vancouver?