Friday free-for-all!

It’s another Friday, and that means its time for another Friday free-for-all.

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the week end.

-links to come later

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
DaMann
Member
DaMann

“US Investors Shorting Vancouver housing”
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/News/11162797/story.html?ref=yfp

Interesting. That’s putting your money where your mouth is.

space889
Guest
space889

@vangrl – right vangrl, that will show those overstretched homeowers who will then hurrily drop their asking price by 3/4 so you can swoop in with a smirk on your face and become what you always wanted to be, a Van West homeower.

You are a pathetic human being. Dreams of profiting not by your own strength and hard work or even luck, but at the misfortunes of others and feeling good about it.

space889
Guest
space889
@DaMann – I think this type of thing started at least 2, maybe 3 years ago and was discussed on this blog. So far the trade hasn’t been super successful. The major bets were banks, smaller mortgage lenders and CAD $. Only the CAD $ really dropped vs US$. Big banks hasn’t dropped too much. Don’t know about smaller mortgages stocks. I guess maybe there are more hedge funds piling in now. So far the housing market hasn’t cracked yet and frankly without massive job losses or spiking interest rates (> 5% and staying there), I can’t see massive default comings. People here don’t seem to be too into strategic defaulting. Rather I think bank will simply extend the loan at longer amortizatino. So, say someone is 7 years into a 25 years mortgage and interest rate went up and… Read more »
DaMann
Member
DaMann

“profiting not by your own strength and hard work or even luck, but at the misfortunes of others and feeling good about it.”

Sounds a lot like some current homeowners. Blind luck that they bought when they did ( and the prices were low to allow it) and running around smug as shit at how brilliant they are. Not to mention how many people are putting themselves into financial suicide by biting off $1 million mortgages to buy. I’m sure they don’t lose sleep over that either.

Knife cuts both ways…

DaMann
Member
DaMann

“Rather I think bank will simply extend the loan at longer amortizatino. So, say someone is 7 years into a 25 years mortgage and interest rate went up and they can’t afford the payments. Rather than foreclose, banks will likely simply take out a new 25yrs or 30yrs mortgage on the remaining mortgage principle. That’s a far better outcome for the bank and foreclosing.”

If the banks were on the hook for the mortgage I would tend to agree with you. But we both know banks are anything but altruistic. With CMHC holding the bag I don’t see them going out of their way to help.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

Further to that point, and I’m pulling this number straight out of my ass, I would bet that a good 25% of homeowners have pulled a shit tonne of “equity” out of their homes to fuel a lifestyle they couldn’t afford otherwise. Banks will not be patient because not only is the mortgage in trouble so are the HELOCs, and let’s not forget that in the CMHC’s infinite wisdom they were insuring HELOCs

Many Franks
Member

Someone at the Vancouver Observer jumps into trying to analyze the Vancouver Market based on a small rent-vs-own survey comparing Vancouver to Seattle.

OPINION: Number-crunching reveals Vancouver is in a real estate bubble

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

“Sounds a lot like some current homeowners. Blind luck that they bought when they did ( and the prices were low to allow it) and running around smug as shit at how brilliant they are. Not to mention how many people are putting themselves into financial suicide by biting off $1 million mortgages to buy. I’m sure they don’t lose sleep over that either.”

they are brilliant all right. you had the same chance years ago…and you blew it. instead, you keep complaining about your misfortune on this blog. 5 years from now, you will be posting the same thing.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

@8

So someone who is of the age of say 25 now, it’s their fault for not buying at age 16 when they had the chance? It’s assholes like you that make me puke.

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode

1689 ALLISON RD, University, Vancouver West, $5,780,000.00

Asking so much for a lot.

Total Value $4,571,000 (Assessed as of July 1st, 2014)

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V1130673&REBoards=All&From=MLS

patriotz
Member

@5:

Banks will be happy to refinance to a new 25 year term provided it qualifies for CMHC insurance (meets equity and debt service requirements). Which the borrower has to pay a new insurance fee for.

If not, they will be unable to refinance and will have no choice but to foreclose if the borrower can’t meet payments.

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

“It’s assholes like you that make me puke.”

i do have ass#$%^. don’t you know you have one too?
why don’t you tell the readers how many long years have you been posting nonsense on this blog!

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley
I updated my Housing Starts chart to include population growth as well. http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html If I have done the following math correctly: In 2014 there were 28,356 residential housing starts in BC (all units, SFD, T-House, Condo) In May 2015, the annualized number is 28,179 starts in BC (average of May through May x 12) down 4% from last year. In 2014 there were 4,657,947 people living in BC (assume they all had a roof overhead, although people do inhabit Stanley Park) In May 2015 there were 4,666,892 people in BC (8,945 more people to shelter than in 2014) Annualized starts of 28,179 less additional people of 8,945 equals 19,234 starts left over if 1 person lives in 1 housing start completed. QUESTION will there be another nearly 20,000 people who will be additionally domiciled in BC by the end of… Read more »
Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Good points.

Our housing bubble makes no sense.

What do you think the odds are of a 10% price decline over the next year, to start?

WSR

space889
Guest
space889

@DaMann – But the “stupid lucky smug” homeowners don’t go around wishing for economic disaster that will be indiscriminate in its victims. Whether you agree or disagree with their attitude/believes, at the end of the day their message is more on the positive of “hey join the bandwagon and you too can be rich or whathever”.

That’s different from those bears who actively hope for economic disaster and market crashes and ruining of a lo of people’s life just so they can buy a house on what they think is fair valued and a right that have been denied to them. And I find it amazing that they also believe they can escape any such major economic collapse unscathed.

space889
Guest
space889
@DaMann – well if CMHC and by extension the gov’t will bailed out the banks with taxpayers money then yes, you are probably right. However, if the problem is as big as we are led to believe, CMHC and gov’t might not have that much money. Thus in that case, CMHC can simply deny bank claims by being super anal about the paperwork as they used to be, just like any insurance companies. In such scenario, it would be better for bank to extend the loans as long as the borrower can pay as it is much better than the alternatives. The gov’t might also force/pressure the banks into such actions since massive forced foreclosures isn’t going to be politically popular and people will be clamming for the gov’t to do something to fix the problem and stop the big… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@patriotz – Assuming the gov’t don’t change the rules to prevent mass foreclosure. If everyone acted rationally and logically then bubbles wouldn’t exist. Just as people and gov’t and institutions act irrationally on the way up, they are equal likely or even more to act irrationally on the way down. Especially gov’t facing elections.

space889
Guest
space889

@Brian Ripley – Does that number includes all the TFW, foreign students, tourists with 6 months+ visa, and off course rich immigrants coming from Que, Manitoba, etc??

space889
Guest
space889

@Brian Ripley – Also forgot to mention, is your housing starts net of demolitions as well?

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Could the slowing in sales spur a surge in new listings?

TheTop
Guest
TheTop

Is that Space dude a bit unstable?

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley
To Space 889 re: your queries above: Data based on 2011 Census Definitions https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/ref/dict/pop117-eng.cfm Part B Detailed Definition: Refers to the question about the relationship of household members to the first person reported on the questionnaire for the household, called Person 1. A household member may be related to Person 1 through blood, marriage, common-law, adoption or a foster relationship or unrelated (e.g., lodger, room-mate or employee). This question is used to obtain information on families, as well as the family characteristics of individuals. “Other sources of demand for new housing construction include replacement demand due to intentional and unintentional housing unit losses (such as demolitions and destruction from natural disasters), conversions and demand for secondary dwellings.” [cmhc.ca/odpub/pdf/68020.pdf] I could not find any other reference to “net of demolitions”. If anyone has one, please write me from my website contact… Read more »
best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

bears with pea-size brain like to see rubbish like this one

“Could the slowing in sales spur a surge in new listings?”

Romeo jordan? how is your little box in the sky in north van?

DaMann
Member
DaMann

@15 Space

Not sure I agree. It’s pretty safe to assume that most people simply can’t buy in Vancouver anymore, and I’m not talking about houses, anything. So homeowners wishing for constant appreciation are basically saying fuck you to most people not being able to buy. If the market crashes what do people really lose? Simply don’t sell until the next cycle up. People keep saying it’s all demand for people wanting to live here and it’s not all about foreign money and speculation, so then home owners don’t really lose. If people lose their houses in a crash due to high interest rates, well, it’s pretty damn hard to feel sorry for anyone who buys a place because they can only afford it at 2.5% interest rates. That’s just dumb.

patriotz
Member

@15: “hey join the bandwagon and you too can be rich or whathever”.

You have unwittingly given the pitch for a Ponzi scheme. Yes you can get on the bandwagon and get off rich, as long as someone else is willing to get on. You can’t get rich by staying on, rather it costs you to say on.

wpDiscuz