Canada, data, debt, economy, predictions, rates

Time for another recession?

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39 Comments

It seems like it was just a few years ago we had a recession, could it really be time for another already?

The Canadian economy has now contracted four months in a row and if that trend continues will Poloz have to cut rates again?

Economists have already written off the first half the year, but something better was still expected for April.

This also brings into question the outlook that had been painted by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.

A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, meaning May and June will have to be stronger to avert that in Canada.

Even if the May showing is flat, said Andrew Grantham of CIBC World Markets, there could still be a “modest negative” for the second quarter.

“It probably already feels like a recession for people in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” he said.

Read the full article here.

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realist

@ 35 patriotz

your argument is logical, but as you are discussing human (economic) behaviour, you have overlooked the fact that you are not dealing with rational beings. This is a error, and a weakness in economic thinking, more often made by professional economists!

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Corrupt in Canada

Weed farmers market at Art Gallery today!

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patriotz

@34: “might therefore change peoples investment behaviours. ”

Yeah right. Savings rate is at a post-WWII low, most people are nowhere near their RRSP/TFSA limits, half of people don’t have a TFSA at all, and you think more people are going to make taxable investments (e.g. in stock market) going forward? Nope.

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Shut It Down Already

“Most people don’t have any capital gains on other investments in the first place, so even if capital losses were deductible they would have nothing to deduct them against.”

Today. They could be carried forward, though, and might therefore change peoples investment behaviours. Things are the way they are now, in part, because of the current taxation laws.

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patriotz

@30:

Capital losses are only deductible against capital gains. Most people don’t have any capital gains on other investments in the first place, so even if capital losses were deductible they would have nothing to deduct them against. This goes for investment RE already of course.

This is a federal policy and it’s not politically feasible to get rid of this one anyway. Some of the crazier policies at the provincial level might be.

I find it interesting that the BC budget makes no mention of property tax deferral. Since it’s a loan to the property owner it’s not an operating expense, but the outstanding total is an asset, and it isn’t mentioned by name on the balance sheet. It must be hidden in another category.

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2015/bfp/2015_budget_and_fiscal_plan.pdf

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bullwhip29

Will Beijing really be the last rescuer for everyone in the stock market?
http://tinyurl.com/pbxcl2q

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bullwhip29

Some Chinese Are Taking 22% Margin Loans to Finance Stock Purchases
http://tinyurl.com/ncanmta

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Shut It Down Already

” Capital gains exemption for principal residence”

Sure, but only if they make losses deductible.

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Shlomo

#25

Looks like those millionaires are enjoying a nice dose of airborne diesel particulate with their eggs and ham. We should all be so lucky.

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Corrupt in Canada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_q61B-DyPk

God this is great, but hes not a racist hes just pointing out the truth right?

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Corrupt in Canada

@25

Great link look at all those idiots. Now look at all these idiots from all around the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoQnbv3DPi4
http://www.dinnerintheskyevents.com/index2.php

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W

http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-story/5703391-chinese-canadian-organizations-demand-apologies-for-stories-in-globe-and-mail/

Chunese–Canadian organizations demand apologies for stories in Globe

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bullwhip29

cont’d…

i couldnt help but post this pic too. it is self explanatory…enjoy
http://tinyurl.com/ph5y6fs

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bullwhip29

#22

a certain % of this is HAM doing the “in your face” act while much of it is an illusion, for show only. nothing is more important to chinese than appearing rich to their friends, family, neighbors etc. people that act like douche bags usually get what’s coming to them eventually.

btw, did anyone check to see how shanghai closed last evening?
http://tinyurl.com/q8x3asm

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fanaticallybroke

The Great Garth who has been saying the Fed would raise and the B o C would be forced to follow, now quotes David Madani as saying the B o C may cut again this fall and this would another boost to housing before the great spring collapse.

He changes his opinion with the seasons but has lots of “i told you so…” posts.

Not many ” guess I got that completely wrong.”

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Son of Ponzi

#2
The real question is “Who’s driving the Lambo?”
And we all know the answer.

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bullwhip29

the powers that be in Cda will do whatever it takes to keep highly indebted Cdns from getting sucked into a black hole. maybe there is an outside chance lending standards are tightened if things really go awry, but rates stay low and/or trend lower. wouldnt surprise me to see loonie drop another 10% from here in next several months. meanwhile the usual cast of characters will be boasting that Van RE is still the best place on earth to park your cash as prices remain flat to slightly up (in CDN) but in reality break to new 5-6yr lows in USD.

apparently everyone thinks the whole situation in greece was fixed overnight. give me a break. continue selling, this mess in greece (and elsewhere) far from over.

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patriotz

@17: “You hear about all these boomers sitting on big, now-empty homes and young families cramped into 700 sq ft condos with kids. A 5-year old child would tell you that the right solution is to simply swap places” The reason empty nesters continue to occupy properties which are far too big for them is that they are being subsidized by provincial and federal policies. The unused space is far, far bigger in total than all the empty houses owned by foreigners that everyone is so upset about. This artificial holding of shelter off the market results in both higher prices and rents. Get rid of these policies and the problem would go away: – Extra home owners grant for seniors – Property tax deferral – Below market assessment for legacy residences – Capital gains exemption for principal residence –… Read more »

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Oracle

Lurker, rates are going to zero. The private Bank of Canada and its ally Harper are stuck. Raising rates will cause extreme damage to the Canadian housing market. Then jobs will be lost.

As jobs are lost, people will turn against immigration. Then more carnage in housing.

They will not raise rates. Bet everything against the Canadian Dollar.

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Lurker

Oh man, everyone is calling for another rate cut. Can’t wait to see what that’ll do to real estate here. Record highs again!

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Shlomo

The emasculation of this once-great country continues. Today I heard of a co-worker moving back home, to his wife’s parents’ SFH in Burnaby. His parents are long dead, so that’s not an option, but this is a 41 year old man with two kids and a wife. They live in a condo in the West End and have been patiently waiting for the bubble to burst. I can only imagine the attrition and acrimony as they saved and waited and waited (can you imagine two kids in a 750 sq ft condo?). It turns out that the wife’s been pushing this strategy as a money-saver, for the short-term or whatever. He has been hesitant to buy, not because he’s some fanatic bubble-believer but because he thinks it’s a bit overvalued and is willing to wait for a slight correction(10%), not… Read more »

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fanaticallybroke

From the selling Realtors I would guess that there are still some big HAm buys but it is settling down from the frenzy earlier this year. Of course the choices are getting more limited and maybe they are feeling the zeitgeist around corrupt money. If China and Canada were really serious about tracking corrupt money, they should just pick an outrageous number say 3 or 4 Million and ask anyone who buys a residential or commercial property in that range…where did your money come from?

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Corrupt in Canada

@13

Interesting, that appeared on my facebook feed today

CBC Vancouver
6 hrs · Edited ·

If you’ve bought – or bid on – a house in Metro Vancouver of late, you may have run up against some higher bids. However, those higher bids may not have existed at all. The practice is fair game in BC, as of tomorrow, the practice will be banned in Ontario. Hear more about the ban, today On The Coast.

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