Time for another recession?

It seems like it was just a few years ago we had a recession, could it really be time for another already?

The Canadian economy has now contracted four months in a row and if that trend continues will Poloz have to cut rates again?

Economists have already written off the first half the year, but something better was still expected for April.

This also brings into question the outlook that had been painted by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.

A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, meaning May and June will have to be stronger to avert that in Canada.

Even if the May showing is flat, said Andrew Grantham of CIBC World Markets, there could still be a “modest negative” for the second quarter.

“It probably already feels like a recession for people in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” he said.

Read the full article here.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

pop quiz, how would a recession and the associated rate cuts effect

1.) stocks
2.) real estate

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-detached-homes-spark-bidding-wars-1.2937732

“Real estate agents say locals, not mainland Chinese buyers, are driving the market”

hmm why would agents say that, I thought they want to scare everyone with HAM.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

DUH.. REALATURDS SAY IT SO IT MUST BE A LIE!! I AM NOW A HAM TRUE BELIEVER, DUH… BEARLOGIC IS THE BEST LOGIC!! DUH…

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

greek crisis pushes down rate of 5 year canadian bond.

now 0.909%. was 1.029% yesterday.

http://www.brandonsun.com/business/breaking-news/canada-bond-yields-and-prime-rates-for-monday-june-29-310752421.html?thx=y

Gnomes of Zurich
Guest
Gnomes of Zurich

Have no fear.
Election is near.
If numbers go bad
Poloz can ease a tad
With the help of a few more 1st time buyers
Keep the political asses out of the fire.
Enough to get us to October.
Then the bond market takes over.

patriotz
Member

@2:

Does anyone have an objective definition of “driving the market”? If not, is this actually saying anything?

patriotz
Member

@2:

Also notice the phrase “driving the market” does not occur in the body of the article. It was put in by the headline writer.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New Listings 235
Price Changes 75
Sold Listings 128
TI:13224

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Happy Canada day VCI!!

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Happy CD to you as well PaulB, and to all the blogdogs.

Hey…where have all the buyers gone?

I think Poloz knows the only way to extend the inevitable is to reduce interest rates.

As the surge is done, son.

HAM, where art thou?

WSR

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Bull bull bull:

The problem here in Vancouver is foreign money is leading to high prices. The local who wants to get in and does will be up to their eyeballs in debt. Will result in a meaner society. The have nots will turn on the haves.

It will be worse for all. More blackmail, deceit, and anger. And it will be on the streets.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Notice the articles as of very recent, highlighting bidding warz driven soley by locals?

Realturds (other than PaulB and myself) don’t want any more attention on the tax dodging foreign buying, it’s starting to worry the golden goose.

No matter, Adam Smith will correct all.

If Poloz doesn’t throw a pre election lifelike, the goose is cooked, will get blackened and charred beyond recognition.

WSR

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Presumably foreclosure proceedings are public record? So we can see who’s been swimming naked when the tide goes out…. Will you all finally admit you’re wrong when they turn out to be locals, or will you instead concoct some dumb “well, all the foreigners simply moved back home or paid cash to begin with” stories?

Loon
Guest
Loon

Corrupt in Canada,

That article is from January, anything newer ?

santa
Guest
santa

Come xmas time Santa will be unloading his sack..no not into Ms Claus he will be unloading bonds and watch out mortgage rates bi buy rock bottom fixed. Next spring after the election is in rear view mirror and we are in full blown recession. Boom shackalacka watch listing rise and prices fall.

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

@13

Interesting, that appeared on my facebook feed today

CBC Vancouver
6 hrs · Edited ·

If you’ve bought – or bid on – a house in Metro Vancouver of late, you may have run up against some higher bids. However, those higher bids may not have existed at all. The practice is fair game in BC, as of tomorrow, the practice will be banned in Ontario. Hear more about the ban, today On The Coast.

fanaticallybroke
Guest
fanaticallybroke

From the selling Realtors I would guess that there are still some big HAm buys but it is settling down from the frenzy earlier this year. Of course the choices are getting more limited and maybe they are feeling the zeitgeist around corrupt money. If China and Canada were really serious about tracking corrupt money, they should just pick an outrageous number say 3 or 4 Million and ask anyone who buys a residential or commercial property in that range…where did your money come from?

Shlomo
Guest
Shlomo
The emasculation of this once-great country continues. Today I heard of a co-worker moving back home, to his wife’s parents’ SFH in Burnaby. His parents are long dead, so that’s not an option, but this is a 41 year old man with two kids and a wife. They live in a condo in the West End and have been patiently waiting for the bubble to burst. I can only imagine the attrition and acrimony as they saved and waited and waited (can you imagine two kids in a 750 sq ft condo?). It turns out that the wife’s been pushing this strategy as a money-saver, for the short-term or whatever. He has been hesitant to buy, not because he’s some fanatic bubble-believer but because he thinks it’s a bit overvalued and is willing to wait for a slight correction(10%), not… Read more »
Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Oh man, everyone is calling for another rate cut. Can’t wait to see what that’ll do to real estate here. Record highs again!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Lurker, rates are going to zero. The private Bank of Canada and its ally Harper are stuck. Raising rates will cause extreme damage to the Canadian housing market. Then jobs will be lost.

As jobs are lost, people will turn against immigration. Then more carnage in housing.

They will not raise rates. Bet everything against the Canadian Dollar.

patriotz
Member
@17: “You hear about all these boomers sitting on big, now-empty homes and young families cramped into 700 sq ft condos with kids. A 5-year old child would tell you that the right solution is to simply swap places” The reason empty nesters continue to occupy properties which are far too big for them is that they are being subsidized by provincial and federal policies. The unused space is far, far bigger in total than all the empty houses owned by foreigners that everyone is so upset about. This artificial holding of shelter off the market results in both higher prices and rents. Get rid of these policies and the problem would go away: – Extra home owners grant for seniors – Property tax deferral – Below market assessment for legacy residences – Capital gains exemption for principal residence –… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the powers that be in Cda will do whatever it takes to keep highly indebted Cdns from getting sucked into a black hole. maybe there is an outside chance lending standards are tightened if things really go awry, but rates stay low and/or trend lower. wouldnt surprise me to see loonie drop another 10% from here in next several months. meanwhile the usual cast of characters will be boasting that Van RE is still the best place on earth to park your cash as prices remain flat to slightly up (in CDN) but in reality break to new 5-6yr lows in USD.

apparently everyone thinks the whole situation in greece was fixed overnight. give me a break. continue selling, this mess in greece (and elsewhere) far from over.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#2
The real question is “Who’s driving the Lambo?”
And we all know the answer.

fanaticallybroke
Guest
fanaticallybroke

The Great Garth who has been saying the Fed would raise and the B o C would be forced to follow, now quotes David Madani as saying the B o C may cut again this fall and this would another boost to housing before the great spring collapse.

He changes his opinion with the seasons but has lots of “i told you so…” posts.

Not many ” guess I got that completely wrong.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

#22

a certain % of this is HAM doing the “in your face” act while much of it is an illusion, for show only. nothing is more important to chinese than appearing rich to their friends, family, neighbors etc. people that act like douche bags usually get what’s coming to them eventually.

btw, did anyone check to see how shanghai closed last evening?
http://tinyurl.com/q8x3asm

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

cont’d…

i couldnt help but post this pic too. it is self explanatory…enjoy
http://tinyurl.com/ph5y6fs

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