Food for Bulls

No matter how insane the Vancouver housing market gets, don’t take too much comfort in the fact that it can’t get crazier.  For all the logical arguments and reasoning, those who are negative on the price of Vancouver real estate have been more wrong than right for years.

Ulsterman points out one take on this situation:

I just renewed the rental on my $1.2m rental SFU for 2k/month. I great deal no doubt. But i’m dealing with a wife and three kids. My very patient wife would of course like to make changes and modify her nest. I mean, all her friends are doing it. I’m actually surprised I’ve managed to to suppress the mutiny thus far. Yes honey, just wait, the price correction is JUST around the corner. Every year we wait in nervous anticipation to know if we will be uprooting the family to search out another home.

If you have a family rental living is just a pain in the arse. Buying in 2005 or so and just getting the fuck on with your life would have been the best choice. And don’t think to yourself, “well duh, of course i’d have bought in 2005!” Back then, the people who read these blogs were the people who didn’t buy because they already thought there was a bubble. It’s really easy to look back now and say if only i’d had a downpayment back then i’d have bought. You probably wouldn’t have because you’d have been reading stuff like this and thinking a bubble was forming.

If you are a new bear out there, take no comfort reading these blogs. You could still be reading them 10 years from now. Seriously.

Read the rest of the comment here.

Sure, condos haven’t done so great in the last half decade, but detached homes keep going up and up.  At what point does this market affect your major life decisions? Do you capitulate and buy what you can, keep renting or are you considering a move away from the metro area?

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Softy
Softy
5 years ago

““Quantitative easing ‘not on the table’: Finance Minister Joe Oliver”, CTV News”

Isn’t that the decision of the BOC Governor, not the finance Minister?

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
5 years ago

Patriotz, I still think you’re mistaken about the “averaging” of many markets yielding a nice symmetric bubble. your diversionary tactics regarding laying down silly goals about the Q function are noted, however.

Of course, without a valid hypothesis there’s no guarantee that Vancouver’s price chart will follow a similar pattern to the ones presented so far.

I firmly believe that TA is fundamentally nonsense, but there are enough believers as active market participants in the market to make explicitly betting against it a risky strategy.

Slagathor
Slagathor
5 years ago

….Space, can you give us a closed form expression for the Q function?

Hint: it has nothing to do with Star Trek….

Or James Bond. 🙂

southseacompany
southseacompany
5 years ago

JO says no QE;

“Quantitative easing ‘not on the table’: Finance Minister Joe Oliver”, CTV News

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/quantitative-easing-not-on-the-table-finance-minister-joe-oliver-1.2480835

“Finance Minister Joe Oliver says he doesn’t see any need for quantitative easing, despite concerns that the country may have fallen into a recession.”

“”We don’t see any need for quantitative easing in this environment,” Oliver said” “Quantitative easing is not on the table.”

“The debate over quantitative easing has sparked controversy in the past.”

“Oliver’s predecessor drew criticism in October 2013, when former finance minister Jim Flaherty described the American policy as “the printing of money” and said he never supported it. That was despite appearing to back the Federal Reserve’s decision in 2010.”

“Flaherty also signed off on a similar policy in 2009 during the height of the financial crisis, although it was never implemented.”

space889
space889
5 years ago

– I think taxes (all forms – income, sales, fees, etc) have triple or quadrupled since 80s, while income (even nominal) hasn’t even doubled. Unfortunately, most people are lazy to pursue the matter and raise heck. Instead, they devote more time to following Kardarshins, Canucks, and RE & supposed HAM than pursuing things that really matter in the long run.

How many 30 years old actually stop and think if CPP will even be there for them in 45 years when they can retire (after retirement age gets raised to 75)?

space889
space889
5 years ago

– and that has to do with your stats argument and use of Central Limit Theorem how?

And did you just randomly google that? Geez…give it a break with your “I must win every argument” and “I’m so much smarter than everyone else” attitude. You aren’t smarter than everyone else and you aren’t always right.

I don’t claim to be a math genius but at least I took stat courses and I work with this stuff in job. It’s fairly easy to spot who actually knows the stuff and who’s full of it.

space889
space889
5 years ago

@vangrl – So by your definition anyone who’s born in mainland China is a foreigner? That means when I buy another house, I would be counted as foreign money even though I’ve been in Canada for close to 70% of my life and have paid taxes to Canada for my entire working life? But someone who is born in Canada and then worked on Wall Street or Miscrosoft for 10 years, brought back a few million $$ and bought a luxury house would be counted as a local, not foreign? The realtor said the buyer is local. I don’t see where the guy is born is that relevant. Unless you believe there are different tiers of Canadian citizens/localness. Frankly, you don’t know anything beyond that the guy is born in mainland and you are making assumptions based purely on that.… Read more »

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
5 years ago

>Well why don’t they just convert it into condos? Worked in Vancouver didn’t it?

lol, yeah right! odd how something that works in vancouver wouldn’t work in calgary, huh patriotz? aren’t albertans eligible for CMHC loans?

George
George
5 years ago

It’s not real estate, but it’s a really cool graph that shows MSP rates in BC from 1987 to 2013. Look how the rates shot up after the BC Liberals were elected! Rates for singles have more than TRIPLED since 1987. Have average incomes tripled?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fn21b9A2Zs/UV4o1Oe6TmI/AAAAAAAAGwA/DgUct_sZ-YI/s1600/MSP-Rates-in-BC–1987-to-20.jpg

patriotz
5 years ago

As oil prices plummet, Calgary’s vacant office space soars
Well why don’t they just convert it into condos? Worked in Vancouver didn’t it?

patriotz
5 years ago

@30:

Space, can you give us a closed form expression for the Q function?

Hint: it has nothing to do with Star Trek.

fllaneur
fllaneur
5 years ago

source: Mingpao Canada

Cao Yongzheng, the fortune-telling qigong master linked to China ex-security Tsar, controls Hong Kong-based companies worth several hundreds of millions. Some of these companies had dissolved, but at least 5 of them still appear on HK corporate registry.
http://www.mingpaocanada.com/Van/htm/News/20150721/vab1h_r.htm

Cao Yongzheng and his wife, Wang Wenqin are said to be Canadian citizens, having emigrated to Vancouver in 1997. His birth name was Cao Zengyu. Canada Immigration spokesperson, Rémi Larivière, citing privacy act, refused to confirm if Cao is a Canadian citizen. All their four children received their education in Canada and the US before returning to China for greener pastures.
http://www.mingpaocanada.com/Van/htm/News/20150721/vab2_r.htm

Reader
Reader
5 years ago

“Ulsterman Says:
July 19th, 2015 at 11:45 pm 109

But i’m dealing with a wife and three kids. My very patient wife would of course like to make changes and modify her nest. I mean, all her friends are doing it.”

Sorry, not sure I understand. What do you mean by “of course like to make changes”? Do you mean it is not possible to raise a family in that house “as it is”? Why? Is it leaking? Is it inhabitable? Why on earth does she have to “modify the nest”? Oh and by the way it’s not a “nest”: it is a house, unless you married a bird. Oh and by the way who cares what her friends do???

realist
realist
5 years ago

@ space889
“I don’t see why you are so upset about me pointing out something so simple-don’t bullsh*t stuff, especially hard science when you don’t truly understand it.” Not upset, and I agree!

“No one knows everything and is always right.” Correct!

For your own good, and also for the well-being of this blog, it would be best if you would stop personalizing the discussion, however disagreeable you find it, and get on with the fact-finding, analysis, arguments, etc.

YLTNboomerang
5 years ago

@Royce, 15
Your situation is almost exactLay the same as mine except I had a place and sold in 2007 and started renting…plus a kid.

My company is in the process of being bought so we are holding out until the purchase to see if I get a package, relocation, or status quo. Status quo will result in departure for us though it pains me as we will be moving away from the grandparents who came to Canada for a better life, I guess they chose wrong.

Yunak
Yunak
5 years ago

@39

If there is a justice all those scumbags and cheaters should be expelled asap. Why would you foster crime and deception???

w
w
5 years ago

B.C. immigration goes negative but wealthy migrants flood in

Kurland’s office paid for study that tracked the addresses of 5,120 Quebec immigrant investors who had arrived from 2000 to 2008. The study found that, within months of landing in Quebec, 91% of them had a B.C. address and most were living in the Vancouver area.
“That is literally 2,000 wealthy immigrants a year moving in –150 a month – who are not counted in B.C. immigration numbers,” Kurland said. “Can you imagine what 2,000 millionaires means to the high-end property market in Vancouver, as buyers?”

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/6/bc-immigration-goes-negative-wealthy-migrants-floo/

Yunak
Yunak
5 years ago

Hope these clowns won’t last too long and will end up in the dump of political history for all wrongdoings that they did to the BC people.

“While the B.C. Liberal party prepares to break out their punch bowl and party hats, I think it’s important for everyone to realize what we, the taxpayers, sacrificed to obtain this $1.7 billion surplus. Although Premier Christy Clark would love for you to think that it was her hard work and amazing number-crunching skills, the reality is this surplus comes at our expense, not hers.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/sarah-miller2/bc-surplus_b_7821072.html

paulb
5 years ago

New Listings 208
Price Changes 73
Sold Listings 157
TI:12843

http://www.paulboenisch.com

vangrl
vangrl
5 years ago

Author’s comment – let’s just call him Papa Bear. “By the way, I’m aware that the scenario I outlined above may seem a bit irrational or overreaching or over extrapolating. I don’t think it is at all though. Massive residential real estate bubble, and it is massive, peaking while the economy is beginning recession and interest rates are already at the lower bound and the country’s principal industry, energy, is failing, is about as big a nightmare situation as I can imagine, especially for the banks. I honestly don’t know what corrective action is available to the monetary and fiscal authorities. The 50% decline in residential values I referenced as probable is a national average. In the west / Vancouver a peak to trough decline of 75% in nominal terms would be reasonable and only take prices back to where… Read more »

space889
space889
5 years ago

– Whatever patriotz…..as long as it helps you to feel you are right about housing bubble and renting is superior…

Oh wait, you bought! Despite believing it is a housing bubble…Just that Ottawa isn’t as big a bubble as Vancouver so it is ok… and getting kicked out by landlord is just so annoying…something that never happens in Vancouver.

Geez…sometimes humility does wonders for your personal credit and reputation. No one knows everything and is always right.

Westside Realtor
Westside Realtor
5 years ago

Coffee talk with two colleagues regarding buyer reaction to the latest BoC rate cut:

“Meh”

WSR
I think the debt pig is full up…

vangrl
vangrl
5 years ago

me 0 reading comprehension?

I know you’re really excited that you think you found a luxury house that was not bought by a local, but try and relax and read slowly.

Or maybe rent out your imaginary basement suite and use the proceeds to invest in some English comprehension classes.

space889
space889
5 years ago

– Geez….0 reading comprehension and logical thinking…why am I still surprised.

vangrl
vangrl
5 years ago

Space what don’t you get? the majority of bids lost out to a Mainland China Guy, as usual.