Friday Free-for-all!

Another beautiful weekend is here!

Who wants gloomy housing news?

This is our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Canada’s economy: a rough ride
Have more kids and move to BC
Rents in vancouver high or low?
QE in Canada?
Fix Canada with US-made tools?
20% overvalued in Canada
Rennie raises funds for BC Liberals
Secret data?
Ghost town back on market

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
Member

Why You Shouldn’t Buy A House

Link courtesy Carrick at G&M. Note this guy is in the US where houses are 1/2 the price that they are in Canada. But of course, south of the border they have problems like job insecurity and student loan debt that we don’t. 😉

George
Guest
George

According to the Globe and Mail, another interest rate cut is unlikely this year because the Canadian economy is already “bouncing back”. Oh yeah, we’re bouncing back alright. We’ve barely begun to feel the inflationary effects of a lower dollar and the recession seems to have just gotten started. What are they talking about that we’re “bouncing back”?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-bouncing-back-further-rate-cuts-unlikely-economists-say/article25652240/

patriotz
Member
Tax assessments based on your net worth: be prepared Mr. Smith (not his real name) – who recently experienced a net worth assessment (NWA) by CRA. A NWA is a tool used by the taxman to figure out if someone has been under-reporting their income. CRA might become suspicious if, for example, you own a nice home and drive an expensive car but report a relatively low income each year. In these cases, CRA has the right to assess tax based on some amount of income that they think makes sense based on your net worth, costs of living and reported income. Well isn’t that interesting. Looks like CRA has the legal power to assess income based in assets right now. So why is “Mr. Smith” getting the treatment and not “Mr. Zhao”? When the Cons canceled the old IIP… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl

“So the Creek development goes on sale this weekend. ..my buddy is getting paid by the developers to camp out in line 400$ a day. ….the slime slimes”

Is this post B.S?

fanaticallybroke
Guest
fanaticallybroke

@ 3

That is very interesting. I had no idea the CRA could assess on net worth. the question then is …why the fuck aren’t they?!

there are several Mainland Billionaires living in West Vancouver alone, one recently got chopped up by a cousin. If they just assess this one area , they could probably pay off the national debt. Remember some of these guys have no where else to run to. They have already laundered their money out and will probably be in front of a firing squad if they go home.

I bet many of them pay less taxes than the average guy making 50,000. heck the guy who was chopped up and worth over a Billion bucks had the second house in his cousin’s name so as to avoid paying tax when he sold it.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“I bet many of them pay less taxes than the average guy making 50,000. heck the guy who was chopped up and worth over a Billion bucks had the second house in his cousin’s name so as to avoid paying tax when he sold it.”

We know they are, didn’t stats come out saying the average IIP income was $18,000?

Billy Bob
Guest
Billy Bob

As a long time bear who has been wrong for years I think the perfect storm is brewing and the election will be the trigger for the slide finally happening. We all know debt levels are off the charts, interest rates are lower than they’ve ever been, adjustments have been made to mortgage qualifications, immigrant investor programs have been exploited and a cheer leading press have all played a part in the incredible price escalation. I predict the Liberals and NDP will form a coalition govt. which will cool investment and trigger a down turn in the economy followed by a housing market crash. You read it here first!

vangrl
Member
vangrl

So 61% declared 0 income.

“According to the study, five years after immigrating, only about 39 per cent of IIP principal applicants reported ANY earnings whatsoever to Canada’s taxman, compared to 67 per cent of all Canadians.

And the annual income among those who did report was pitifully low. After their first year in Canada it averaged about C$18,000. After five years, it was about C$21,000; after 15 years in Canada, it had only risen to C$25,000. Compare that to the Canadian average of C$41,000 for the 2008 tax year, from which the data is extracted.”

This was such a fantastic idea!

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
@7: “You read it here first!” Even as a long-time bear myself, this expression still makes me smile (sardonically) as it relates to predicting a housing market decline here. I’m not saying I disagree at all with the logic you present. I’m actually of the mind that, regardless of the outcome of the election, we could see a decline. No federal politicians really talk about this topic – or want to talk about it, it seems. If the Liberals and/ or NDP form the government and things are bad, they’ll stop shoring up the mess, let it fall, and hang it on the previous guys. If the Conservatives form a minority government, they’ll hang it on their hands being tied by the minority situation. Even if the Conservatives form a majority government again, if the headwinds are as significant as… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

record take by bc gaming helped by foreigners playing 100k per hand games.

http://www.richmondreview.com/news/b-c-gets-record-gambling-take-1.2005503

Billy Bob
Guest
Billy Bob

Oh Royce McCutcheon… it’s called sarcasm! A bear since 2005 has a hard time making anymore predictions.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
space889
Guest
space889

@vangrl – Geez what a surprise….none of the IIP came here to actually start a biz. The Investor part of IIP refers to investing in GoC via a $800K loan. When you sell citizenship for a cheap $800K loan, this is exactly the outcome you can expect.

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode

Open house July 25 SAT 2-4pm. Don’t miss this west coast jewel, and maintenance fee only $504 a month:

409 5955 IONA DR, University, Vancouver West, $1,980,000.00

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=V1135374&rowc=3&rowp=1&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=21&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=1&MNPRC=1800000&MXPRC=2000000&SCTP=RS

crikey
Guest
crikey

Don’t you hate it when you have twelve bags of luggage checked in for a flight between New zeal land and Hong Kong, all filled with cash (10 million NZD)… and then one of the bags goes missing?
yeah, we’ve all had those days eh?
I would point out the obvious – that it is just one more example of the HAM phenomenon… but that would offend the sensibilities of some posters here that refuse to believe it exists (and call it “supposed HAM”).

right!…
it was just a regular Joe who completely forgot about a thing called money transfers..
http://nypost.com/2015/07/22/airline-loses-bag-filled-with-660000-in-cash/

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

HAM is myth. you can go to river rock and bet 100k a hand now. but it’s regular canadians playing at those tables!!!

Yunak
Guest
Yunak

@9

I’m not saying I disagree at all with the logic you present. I’m actually of the mind that, regardless of the outcome of the election, we could see a decline.

Any rational would agree 100% but then you have this insane supply of Chinese through either channels which is absolutely sufficient to keep relatively small market perpetually churning by injecting money in it. A paradox caused by BIG numbers that history of economics haven’t experienced before. I don’t think that interest rates would be a factor for them to cool down, given the prices that they easily absorbed so far.

patriotz
Member

@16: “absolutely sufficient to keep relatively small market perpetually churning”

Depends on what you mean by “relatively small market”. If you’re talking about those properties the rich Chinese are actually buying, sure. If you’re talking about other properties, no.

Remember during the US bubble the local wealthy class – who were just as numerous – kept getting richer. Didn’t keep the broad market from crashing when the supply of other buyers ran out.

Yunak
Guest
Yunak

@17

Depends on what you mean by “relatively small market”. If you’re talking about those properties the rich Chinese are actually buying, sure. If you’re talking about other properties, no.

At this point term “rich Chinese” is very expansible and comes in a wide range as well as RE market so yes I am talking about entire market given the huge number of Chinese with more or less money that will keep coming.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“Remember during the US bubble the local wealthy class – who were just as numerous – kept getting richer. Didn’t keep the broad market from crashing when the supply of other buyers ran out.”

Local wealthy that were already there and holding property.

They didn’t have thousands of rich mainlanders coming in every year, or just buying from afar.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

They’re building houses like crazy right now specifically for the Chinese market, so there are more and more houses that are “typically bought” by Chinese. The average price for a house on the West Side just broke 3 Million, so this entire area is considered “luxury market”

All that being said, I’m still hoping some unforeseen thing happens to turn this market, I just don’t think it’s going to be something that “we” do.

patriotz
Member

@19:

Are you saying that if prices drop, say, 10% or 20%, the Chinese will simply swoop in and buy every property for sale in the metro? Well then why aren’t they buying every property now? We keep hearing that they don’t care about such petty amounts.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

@16: Without at all denying the existing of HAM, especially in certain segments of the market, I am of the mind that the intense focus of government/government agency efforts towards preserving or increasing real estate prices is of huge importance. This market has repeatedly proven itself to be very responsive to interest rate changes, for example.

I would be very interested to see the result if government/government agencies backed off (or were forced to back off) their intense focus on maintaining high home prices.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#21

No I’m saying that as much as I’d love to see a decline, I fear that Chinese demand will prevent prices from falling 10% or 20%.

Unless I’m misunderstanding this convo?

vangrl
Member
vangrl

I hope I’m wrong.

I’d love to think that locals are the ones supporting this market, cuz we all know that won’t last long.

And if I am wrong, and “we” bring the market down by 20%, I’m pretty positive Mainlanders will start selling here and fast.

I don’t believe that they don’t care about losing money, that’s not their style in the slightest.

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