Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again, Friday Free-for-all time!

Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

What’s going on with HCG?
45 brokers falsified income
…for $1billion worth of mortgages
5 booming markets not VAN or TO
Don’t hurt property values!
Do retirees really want to move here?
Shadow lender feast on subprime

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend!

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Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme

Hey Paul – there is only one place to go in Oregon – the dunes. Dune City. Rent some dune buggy’s (or quads) and that is the most amazing thing there is down in Oregon coast. After that, go get some no tax goodies anywhere in Oregon.

patriotz
Member

What’s keeping this 30-year-old super saver from buying a home?

Here’s Mr. Marritt’s problem: He’s too good with money to feel comfortable buying in today’s housing market. Here’s my question: Why don’t more people think this way?

George
Guest
George
From CBC: “Could the scandal at Home Capital just be the beginning? The Canadian alternative mortgage company halted its shares after it was revealed that some of its brokers had been falsifying information on the income of mortgage customers. As the soaring housing markets in Alberta and Saskatchewan go off the boil, a gradual weakening in Canada’s roaring real estate business may reveal more irregularities in the market… On a conference call yesterday Home Capital CEO Gerald Soloway insisted that the problem with its brokers was not an indication of a mortgage fraud crisis across Canada. Home Capital’s delinquencies remain low, and the company says it has stopped doing business with the brokers that investigators had shown to be pretending customers’ income qualified them for mortgages… Of course the Home Capital scandal is of a completely different magnitude, and there… Read more »
George
Guest
George

From Globe and Mail:

“The Canadian economy contracted in May, the fifth consecutive monthly decrease, increasing the possibility the country slipped into a recession in the first half of the year.

Statistics Canada said Friday real gross domestic product fell 0.2 per cent in May due mostly to weakness in manufacturing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction as well as wholesale trade.

Economists had expected no change for the month, according to Thomson Reuters.

“There is no sugar-coating this one,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter in a note to clients. “It’s a sour result.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadas-economy-shrinks-for-fifth-straight-month/article25794346/

George
Guest
George

The economy in recession and Canada’s very own subprime mortgage crisis has been exposed. Is this the beginning of the crash? Happy long weekend everyone!

George
Guest
George

From Wolf Street (found link in comments on Garth’s blog):

“Liar Loans Pop up in Canada’s Magnificent Housing Bubble”

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/07/30/canadas-highly-touted-conservative-mortgage-standards-sink-into-liar-loan-scandal/

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus
China’s Naked Emperors by Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/31/opinion/paul-krugman-chinas-naked-emperors.html?mwrsm=Facebook&fb_ref=Default&_r=0 Hmmm Canada in a recession and China is a huge bubble, wonder how this will end? ———————– Meanwhile, China’s leaders appear to be terrified — probably for political reasons — by the prospect of even a brief recession. So they’ve been pumping up demand by, in effect, force-feeding the system with credit, including fostering a stock market boom. Such measures can work for a while, and all might have been well if the big reforms were moving fast enough. But they aren’t, and the result is a bubble that wants to burst. In part, they may be worried about financial fallout. It seems that a number of players in China borrowed large sums with stocks as security, so that the market’s plunge could lead to defaults. This is especially troubling because China has… Read more »
RFM
Guest
RFM
As traders, market pundits and economists jaw over whether the Federal Reserve this year will lift its benchmark lending rate for the first time in almost a decade, several corners of the U.S. bond market are not waiting around. A wide range of short-term interest rates, which tend to be the most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, has been quietly grinding higher for weeks, or in some cases much longer. Several have even surpassed their levels of two years ago during the bond market’s “taper tantrum,” when prices dropped steeply and yields shot up as the Fed pondered whether to halt its massive asset-purchase program. Banks, money market mutual funds and other investors do not want to be stuck with low-yielding debt when the U.S. central bank finally does begin raising interest rates, something it last did in June 2006.… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“TD warns of ‘vulnerability’ of frothy Toronto, Vancouver home markets”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/tds-toronto-vancouver-housing-froth-meter-proceed-with-caution/article25778700/

“Toronto-Dominion Bank is flashing “cautionary yellow” warning signals about the frothy nature of the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“What to do with your pot of housing gold”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/what-should-you-do-with-your-million-dollar-home

“What if you were sitting on a pot of gold worth $1 million and you thought somebody might come and take it away at any moment?”

“In Canada’s two most expensive housing markets that’s the situation some homeowners fear.”

“Are prices really under threat? Some economists think so. David Madani, of Capital Economics, a known housing bear, says the two markets may be as much as 30 per cent overvalued. Derek Burleton, the deputy chief economist with TD Bank, counters that at best the Toronto market has a medium risk of a U.S.-style correction — one where prices dropped by up to 50 per cent in some markets.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Liar loans on Global news:
“Liar loans helping to inflate hot housing markets, experts say”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2140474/liar-loans-helping-to-inflate-ontarios-hot-housing-market-experts/

“The allegation comes as economists raise fresh warnings about lofty Canadian home prices, notably in the Vancouver and Toronto areas, where prices accelerated again this spring.”

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

looking at the post thus far, bear desperate index is hitting all time high. you guys should dig out more miserable link to post here…it’s in your nature.
it’s gonna be an awesome long weekend here in Vancouver with lot of activities. why don’t you come out and join the fun and the people. you mama should have told you that hiding behind the computer screen dont do you any good!

M
Guest
M

TransUnion Study: Negative Credit Impact From Plunge in Oil Prices May Have Only Begun in Alberta and Saskatchewan

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/transunion-study-negative-credit-impact-100000498.html

w
Guest
w

Are we ignoring the amazing price appreciation we are seeing in Vancouver real estate? Just want to make sure I’m on the same page as everyone else.

Many Franks
Member
@southseacompany: That article’s hilarious. Watch Gary Marr cast feebly about for ideas: So what do you do if you think the apocalypse is coming to the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets? You could use the equity in your home by borrowing against it and diversify your overall wealth by investing in the stock market. The strategy has been suggested by some certified financial planners but it’s one that scares homeowners who don’t want to bet their house. Wonderful! Leverage up against an overvalued asset to hedge against having an overvalued asset. Selling your property is always an option, remembering you’re not just abandoning an investment but your way of life. Once you sell you have to figure out where and how you’re going live. It takes a while for your eyes to adjust to living in the sewers, and you… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@vangrl – right, so basically everyone local has to have the same taste as you, and want to live in some small ugly looking “character” house, with that wonderful Vancouver special mold smell, and even awkward layout, instead of a brand spanking new spacious mansion? Cuz, no self-respecting Canadian would ever want big mansion to live in?

Geez…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
@ #3 RE: article by CBC news “In the case of Home Capital, the company insists the brokers who falsified information amount to only 53 of 4,000 brokers the company works with.” “But the company also revealed that these 53 brokers originated $960 million worth of business from a total in 2014 of $7.6 billion. In other words, the bad apples were producing a hugely disproportionate share of the business.” >>> in HCG’s first quarter report, they quietly disclosed that its mortgage originations had been impacted by, among other things, its ongoing “review of its business partners”. given that these 53 brokers accounted for almost 13% of co’s business in 2014, it is puzzling that investors for the most part ignored this detail >>> given the scope and nature of this review (which commenced last fall i believe as a… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #11

this news story wont hit the evening news. (and no one will notice story posted on global website)

instead we get more of the standard rose colored shlock like this

http://globalnews.ca/video/2134673/will-chinese-stock-market-slide-impact-bc

http://globalnews.ca/video/2139094/mortgage-rule-changes-for-homes-with-rental-suites

Cat in the hat
Guest
Cat in the hat

#7
It is funny.

Isn’t that is what exactly fed did?

franko
Member
franko

Hi Paulb,

Don’t know if anyone has mentioned yet, but the Tillamook cheese factory is worth checking out. Lots of novelties and fun stuff for kids.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@bullwhip29

>instead we get more of the standard rose colored shlock like this

the media has accurately reported economic stories especially real estate. just look at what they’ve said and what the market has done for more than a decade.

do you think the media should take their cues from vancouvercondo.info? anyone who did that would have lost all credibility, bankrupted their outlet, and lost their job.

the shit you people say, it’s just so hilarious. that’s why i love this site.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

@B!B!B!

No, you love this site because you’re an anti-social troll or a clueless realtor who loves to rub in the fact this bubble has gone on far longer than any of us expected. Enjoy it while you can.

The_Shit_Garth_Says
Guest
The_Shit_Garth_Says

Taken from GT(the denier) site.

Home Capital Group, Canada’s largest non-bank mortgage lender,hhrough its subsidiary, Home Trust, the company focuses on “alternative” mortgages, disclosed upon the urging of the Ontario Securities Commission, the results of an investigation that had been going on secretly since September: “falsification of income information.” Liar loans.

Home Capital revealed that it has suspended “during the period of September 2014 to March 2015, its relationship with 18 independent mortgage brokers and 2 brokerages, for a total of approximately 45 individual mortgage brokers,” who’d together originated nearly C$1 billion in single-family residential mortgages in 2014.

My point: do not worry, these liar loans are a necessity for those “Canadian citizens”,through the help of their HAM, in keeping their investments safe and our vibrant housing market alive and well.

Tiger
Guest
Tiger
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

saw a BMO analyst on BNN this morning. he put the chances of BOC cutting rates again is 50/50. it’s so simple. economy slips, cut rates. it slips more, loosen lending. a 9 year old could figure it out. interestingly, if you had a child when this website was started they would be 9 now.

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