Party like it’s 1981

Remember the 80’s?

Big hair, jelly bracelets and 20% interest rates.

Homebuyers back then had a tough time, they had to save up for a big down payment and the cost of holding a mortgage was high.  All that hard work and sacrifice was well rewarded though as Rob Carrick points out in the Globe and Mail:

The high interest rates of the early 1980s must have felt unbearable for all Canadians buying homes and arranging mortgages (it was heaven for savers, but never mind). The reward for perseverance was a 30-year run in which resale house prices on a national basis surged by an average annual 5 per cent and were up in 28 of 34 years.

This rally was fed by falling interest rates. After the visit to high-rate hell in the early 1980s, home owners benefited from a long decline in rates that continued into 2015. House prices haven’t gone up because homes are a great investment, because of immigration, because of foreign money or because home ownership is awesome. It’s because we’ve had a 30-year sale on the cost of financing a home purchase, with ever-increasing deep discounts.

That sale may be ending. There’s a growing sense that the U.S. economy is on the upswing, and interest rates in the bond market have already started to creep higher. Mortgage rates take their cue from rates in the bond market, so we could see lenders increase fixed-rate mortgage costs at some point this year or next.

For the historical perspective read the full article here.

The thing that may surprise you is that despite a housing market that has provided magical returns for older buyers and cheaper and cheaper debt seniors are still going bankrupt in record numbers.

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Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Who in their right mind wants another 1 million people here? The majority will be from Asia.

Having ties to Asia, good luck maintaining a tax base to fund healthcare etc. Its your developers who are behind this.

My grandparents are from Asia but this is like giving away the lower mainland. Asians would never allow this on their land…and i thought we were gullible.

Wow.

1 Million more people and I pity the people who speak English.

joe
Guest
joe

China’s tycoons lose $45 billion as stock market tumbles

The worst monthly slump in Chinese stocks in two years wiped away more than $US34 billion ($45 billion) in combined net worth of the richest people in China and Hong Kong in June.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/chinas-tycoons-lose-45-billion-as-stock-market-tumbles-20150702-gi45ds.html

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in that Chinese village full of illiterate farmers/financial experts as they watch their life savings go down the drain once again today.

Of course, I would be one of millions of flies on that single wall desperately fighting for space, but still…..

Shlomo
Guest
Shlomo

In some brutally nihilistic way, I am cheering for the house prices to go up insanely. Since I’ve pretty much given up on owning a SFH ever, I’m a spectator watching the soap opera of international economics play out.

And if I’m priced out, the least I can expect is entertainment. At the risk of sounding ghoulish, some blood in the streets and civil and societal unrest is the bare minimum one can hope for. Kleptocracy FTW!

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

The Transit vote was not against extra funding for transit,
But against letting in another 1 million locusts.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

more on the market in shanghai:
http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1831614/chinese-stocks-extend-slump-beijing-policy-stimulus-fails-inspire

for those watching, the index is down again tonight and currently sitting at 3785, down 26.7% from the peak which was hit 3 weeks ago

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

12K party!!!!

(As predicted)

Burnt
Guest
Burnt

Buyers who bought in this madness will get burnt playing in a hot market. .
Cool buyers only buy in cool market’s. Seller’s will list like free hotcakes in Ethiopia and sales and prices will burn down. That I tell you for free

Corrupt in Canada
Guest
Corrupt in Canada

That is a lot of sales.

I guess we have to wait till next year for this bubble to burst.

paulb
Member

New Listings 264
Price Changes 75
Sold Listings 271
TI:12749

http://www.paulboenisch.com

fanaticallybroke
Guest
fanaticallybroke

numbers to make a prudent buyer sick
20% rise in SFH prices YOY
MOI barely over two.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2015/07/hot-vancouver-single-family-home-style/

All thanks to :
Pathetic Poloz
and ‘learn-to-love-hot-foreign-money-Christy-Clark’
and the current feds who would sell our souls for money.

very sad

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

BBC like CBC and patriotz have a left wing political agenda and foreign investment is close enough to immigration that they feel they have to defend it.

joe
Guest
joe

@patriotz

Who said otherwise?
Why are you piqued…..homeowner here perhaps?

patriotz
Member

@57:

It is legal for foreign buyers in Oz to purchase:

1. Any new property
2. Any existing property if they tear it down and build a new one

According to the article linked by @56, that seems to cover everything the Chinese want anyway.

joe
Guest
joe

China Goes on a $46 Billion Aussie Home Spending Spree

Surging Chinese demand for Australian homes is dwarfing efforts to root out illegal buyers as the government struggles to avert a backlash against unaffordable housing.
Since announcing a crackdown on unlawful home purchases in February, the government has forced only one foreigner to sell up. Chinese already buy almost a quarter of new homes in Sydney and their outlay will more than double to A$60 billion ($46 billion) in the six years to 2020, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/china-s-46-billion-aussie-home-blitz-swamps-crackdown-on-crooks

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

In case you were worried the BBC had any sort of journalistic integrity, they’ve managed to serve up this platter of horse dung.

“With house prices soaring out of the reach of many young Australians, Chinese investors have been singled out for criticism. But experts say foreign investment has a silver lining.”

By “experts” they mean they’ve asked a bunch of people who make money off real estate and what have they come up with as a silver lining?

“Australians should welcome the investment because longer term, it will make homes more, not less, affordable by funding the construction of new apartments, claims Mr White.”

There you go Vancouver, quit your bitching since the more HAM flows in, the lower prices will go. Thanks BBC!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-33339804

joe
Guest
joe

Christy can tax foreign investors to pay for Translink. We’ve had enough.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@43

richmond driving culture has shifted gone from timid HK drivers to aggressive don’t give a fuck mainland drivers

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#50

Some sad stories coming out regarding the Chinese markets 🙁

Why oh why do people go in so over what they can handle…

space889
Guest
space889

@bullwhip – well, you must be very happy that BC Gov’t has removed traffic courts and moved to a system like the municipal parking tickets resolution system, where the officer don’t need to show up to present evidences, and it’s pretty much impossible to for people to dispute the tickets and win or ask for leniency which are often given out by traffic court judges.

In one of the European countries (maybe Denmark??), some traffic tickets fines, like speeding, is based on your income/asset level. So there was one case I read a few years back where this one guy got a $1M+ speeding ticket.

But with a lot of rich people reporting no-income, it might have to be some sort of car value based ticket fine instead.

space889
Guest
space889
@crikey – Chinese people in general don’t like paying taxes and will frequently vote against any party that will likely increase taxes or for party that promises to keep or lower taxes. Case in point, NDP generally do badly in Asian heavy ridings – regardless of whether they are Mainland, HK, Taiwan, or even locals. This is the way it is. Part of it is an inheritant distrust of gov’t, especially with spending $$ properly and efficient. Another part is that HK & Taiwan have very low and straightfoward income tax system. Mainland Chinese never have to fill out any tax forms cuz taxes are deducted at source and most don’t even know what their tax rate is, or even that they pay income tax at all. There is also no property tax in mainland China. Hence, they don’t associate… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

btw, i am also hearing the market in shanghai is gonna get beat up real good tonight. the a-holes at cnbc nailed the top perfectly…lol. this video looks more and more silly by the day http://tinyurl.com/ov6d2un

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
@ #44, 46 a general property tax is definitely not the answer, but the problem is not that hard to fix imho. i estimate there are 100’s of thousands of drivers who buy their gas (among other things) regularly south of the border. this equates to $100’s per driver in lost tax revenue annually. how difficult would it be to ban the transport of multiple jerry cans over the border. currently there is no limit in place. i see people transporting 3,4 and even more of those 18L containers on a regular basis. for obvious reasons, this sort of practice is very dangerous too. secondly, the penalties and fines for driving/parking infractions are way too low here. make repeat offenders pay thru the nose to retain these privileges and remove the worst cases from the roads entirely. perhaps some sort… Read more »
Ford Prefect
Guest
Ford Prefect

I learned a couple of weeks ago that real estate brokers, at least some of them, pay individuals to refer friends of the individual either to the brokerage or one or more of its realtors.

The referring individual is a secret agent in that the person being steered to the realtor has no idea that their friend or acquaintance is being paid to do so – the person receiving the referral thinks they are getting disinterested or impartial advice.

How much is being paid? $400.00 for the first referral and $500.00 for subsequent referrals assuming a sale results from the referral.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Crash? Yes. Of course.

When? My guess is three months after the second Box rate hike.

But, can that ever actually happen? Can they actually raise rates?

You bet your petutie they can. Even if they don’t want to.

This gasbag can only be extended now with another rate cut. Poloz might give us that in a couple of weeks. Pump up things before the election.

That said, no matter how u slice it out two dimensional economy is showing it’s flaws.

BANG!

WSR