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Realtors hungry no more!

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103 Comments

Home buyers may be eating a lot of Kraft Dinner but Realtors are doing fine.  From RFM over at Vancouver Peak:

The VANCOUVER REALTOR HUNGER INDEX is the percent of realtors who earned no commission income for the stated month. For June 2015 the VRHI was 34%. How does this compare? The 18-year average for June is 39%. At 34%, the 2015 June VRHI was higher than 8 years and lower than 9 years since 1998.

The lowest June inventory in nine (9) years and strong demand forced already high prices higher, especially in single family homes, where the HPI reached a stratospheric $1,123,900. Fueled by continuing historically low interest rates, a flood of foreign investment money and panic buying by uninformed and delusional buyers, the June sales rate is extraordinary! And unsustainable. And prices are unsupportable. For a complete analysis of the market dynamics of this firestorm, consult the DSM-5! (The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), published by the American Psychiatric Association, offers a common language and standard criteria for the classification of mental disorders.)

Details and comparison data for 18 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=64

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realist

99 space 889

“As for CFA Vancouver event, if you don’t ever seek out facts/arguments that might contradict your thinking then you will never ever expand your thinking.”

Entirely agree with you, and so gave you your only upvote so far! However, in this matter, after decades of observation, it will be tough for me to reformulate my views about Vancouver Westside RE. I am one of the few non-Chinese speakers remaining in my area.

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realist

99 space 889

“you don’t control the CRA or how their audit department works”

No I don’t, but I know how it works…waitresses cheating on their tips are preferred as targets over stray foreign criminal billionaires.
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/canada-is-tough-on-small-time-tax-fraud-but-missing-the-biggest-cheaters/

Moreover, some insiders are in the crooks’ pay, and who knows where revenge can lead?
http://globalnews.ca/news/1141101/rcmp-arrest-seven-in-alleged-canada-revenue-agency-fraud/

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elvince

: Every western country has “doctors” or “engineers” driving cabs.

Whenever I hear someone complain that they can’t practice medicine in canada with a medical degree from the university of tumbuctu, I remembe about those foreign TAs in university, which engineering degrees (BS or MS), but in reality they had next to 0 knowledge in their own fields.

These people were TAs because nobody in the private sector would hire them. I’m happy their kind can’t operate on people or design water treatment plants.

Those people wouldn’t even be accepted in a medical program in a canadian university with their cracker jack diplomas.

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space889

@crikey – That must be why it’s also so damn hard for Harvard Medical School grads to be able to get a license in BC. Or Australia as more than a few of my highschool classmates that did medical schools there decided to stay put there cuz they can’t practice here.

And I guess the cheaters and scammers never ever apply to other countries like US/Euro/etc cuz it doesn’t look like their professional registration system is as tough as Canada’s. I guess Canada is just so special.

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space889

@realist – well you don’t control the CRA or how their audit department works. The only thing under your control is whether you report or not. Like hockey/basketball, the chance of you scoring is 0% for every shot you didn’t take. As well, there is no cost, aside from some time, to file a report with CRA. As for CFA Vancouver event, if you don’t ever seek out facts/arguments that might contradict your thinking then you will never ever expand your thinking. If you only seek out facts that agree with you and ignore those that don’t agree then how will facts ever change? Frankly, I value opinions of people who’s livelihood depends on their opinions, or who put $$$ where their mouth is, over posters who have been wrong for 6+ years and refuse to admit it. When reality… Read more »

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history

(my trading account) would like to inform you that the following New Issue has been cancelled, withdrawn or deferred. Therefore, all Expressions of Interest on this offering have been cancelled.

“CHC Student Housing Corp”

http://www.chcstudenthousing.com/

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patriotz

@89: “Our analysis last year indicated that roughly one-third of buyers in Vancouver had some connection to mainland China”

Yet another go-round for this one. Is it at all surprising, giving the demographics of the city, that “roughly one-third of buyers had some connection to Mainland China”?

I will also note that in regard to China in particular last year was so, well, last year.

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crikey

On a tangent… have you ever wondered why it is so hard for new Canadians to transfer over their professional credentials as doctors/nurses/etc from outside countries? Depending on who you ask, some people will point at the travesty of taxi-driving medical doctors and have you believe its all a conspiracy of Canadian unions to keep skilled worker numbers low, blablabla. LOL Uh, nope. This story illustrates why its so hard for them. The problem is that cheating and corruption is endemic in countries like India and China. All those Canadian hurdles are a very good thing. “Over two dozen people with ties to India’s $1-billion exam scam have died mysteriously in recent months” …. “Even by standards in India, where corruption is routine, the scale of the scam…is mind-boggling. Police say that since 2007, tens of thousands of students and… Read more »

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

2010 measles outbreak in B.C. traced to single visitor from China

http://www.theprovince.com/health/2010+measles+outbreak+traced+single+visitor+from+China/11195809/story.html

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elvince

@BBB: i see a lot of predictions of people saying that the chinese stock crash will reduce HAM.

but what if you are wrong?

I guess they keep on paying their rent with the fat dividend checks they receive every quarter. Same old same old.

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crikey

#74 said”i see a lot of predictions of people saying that the chinese stock crash will reduce HAM.
but what if you are wrong?”

You’ll have to cut your gloating short, since only a few people here have predicted that.
(Notably, one of the louder predictors is WSR — whom at least half the people here don’t believe actually works in reality — typo, I mean ‘realty’.)

Anyways, as I have said before, nobody knows when the bubble will burst. Anybody who guesses and happens to get it right is lucky, not smart.

The first rule of Vancouver Bubble Club is: Don’t predict when the bubble will burst.

The second rule of Vancouver Bubble Club is: For confirmation of bubble times, look at how the fundamentals are out of whack.

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southseacompany

“Rent the condo, or buy it? Readers respond: Mayers” , Toronto Sun

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2015/07/07/rent-the-condo-or-buy-it-readers-respond-mayers.html

“A recent column comparing an investment in stocks to one on a GTA condo upset some readers. We revisit the story.”

“Young people have been buying condos as the price of houses drifts out of reach. All their savings eggs in one basket. Their parents may have invested in the decade-long condo boom and done well, so why not? Seems risk-free. That may be why a recent article that revisited the rent vs. buy argument elicited such a strong response.”

“The analysis concluded that over a 10-year period you would have made more in the stock market.”

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franko

@84
“looks like the BoC will cut next week”

Who cares?
The private sector only pays attention to the central bank with any clout, and that’s the FED. There is no demand for credit from corporations who are awash with cash. Poloz takes himself way too serious to realize that, and the only group that will be swayed by his bluster are the few dumb suckers who are already stretched to the limit and are trampling themselves to get into the housing market just when it looks like HAM is about to dry up.

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Westside Realtor

Rapid accumulation of wealth in the history of the planet?

Nope, just massive corruption and huge amounts of non performing loans.

Borrow, steal and head for the hills. Get as much money as you can by watever means necessary, and get off the ship before you go down with it.

In its own way, China is the new Japan (think mid-80s).

Could we see listings explode on the westside?

Not yet, but interesting times.

WSR

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vangrl

#85 The event is put on by Dan Scarrow No one knows better than real estate insiders how money flooding in from mainland China is driving up prices in Vancouver, the second-most unaffordable city in the world. “Shanghai-based Dan Scarrow, of Macdonald Realty Ltd., has followed the money and is among the few real estate executives speaking candidly about the transformative impact of Chinese wealth on Vancouver. “Our analysis last year indicated that roughly one-third of buyers in Vancouver had some connection to mainland China,” Scarrow said. “China represents the greatest rapid accumulation of wealth in the history of the planet. That wealth is now spreading out of China and around the globe. It will transform not just Vancouver, but the entire world.” —————————————————— Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy at Macdonald Realty Ltd., said he has heard enough anecdotal… Read more »

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vangrl

“As China’s steepest market drop in decades continues, almost half (link in Chinese) of all listed companies in China voluntarily suspended trading of their shares on July 8, and over 800 others had their stocks automatically halted after reaching their daily drop limit. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 5.9%. The CSI 300 was also down, by 6.8%.
That left only a handful—just 22%, according to our calculations, of all listed stocks on the Chinese stock market trading on Wednesday. ”

What next ? will they just halt all Asian exchanges completely?

Of course halting stocks will just cause more panic selling with people wanting to get out of whatever they can before THAT stock gets halted.

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realist

@ 85 space889 “Vancouver Real Estate – China Effect – August 11, 2015”

Thanks, but I don’t need to attend, as I’ve lived in Vancouver half a century, give or take, mostly in Point Grey, and have come to my own conclusions. That said, to paraphrase Mr. Keynes, when the facts change, I can change my mind, so I’m always interested in new information & others’ analyses…sadly, the latter too frequently reveals how extensively even intelligent and educated people can be brainwashed.

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realist

@ 82 space889 “you are welcome to report to CRA tip hotline. This should be a fairly simple case for them to investigate and assess penalty tax on, assuming it will be sold at asking.”

True. And funny how ineffectual that seems to be in quelling tax fraud related to real estate (every house somehow is a principal residence, no rental income ever declared on a property despite the house having 3 suites of any degree of legality, etc).

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space889

Lucky for all the HAM denier or believers, CFA Vancouver is hosting an event specifically on Vancouver Real Estate – China Effect – August 11, 2015 at noon – $55 registration for non-members, lunch included:

http://www.cfasociety.org/vancouver/Lists/Events%20Calendar/DispForm.aspx?ID=309&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ecfasociety%2Eorg%2Fvancouver%2FPages%2Fdefault%2Easpx&RootFolder=%2Fvancouver%2FLists%2FEvents%20Calendar

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Westside Realtor

Lots of ‘cash’ HAM buyers here over the years have used leverage on their overall wealth. I get the sense that ‘margin calls’ are starting to ramp up. We’ve had three clients list this week and who want a quick sale (although they also want ‘top dollar’). Hopefully this trickle builds and we get a catalyst for the epic meltdown of this epic bubble. That said….looks like BoC may cut next week…although Poz knows about the cdn debt binnge and it’s hard to see how a cut will do much more than fan the RE mania flames…the dollar is down already, should help exporters…and lower oil should be a boost to consumers…so, don’t personally see the need or logic of a cut, but ifIt comes look for another bit of a buying surge and for cdn household debt to Crack… Read more »

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hoy-poloz

@ Missing ex-Burnaby residents rumored to have escaped to China to hide.
BC panel orders $42M in penalties for securities-related infractions
http://tinyurl.com/qfpm5hj

They may as well assess a $100 Million penalty – the same chance of retrieving either!

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space889

@IDIOT_RICH_COLEMAN – Well, you are welcome to report to CRA tip hotline. This should be a fairly simple case for them to investigate and assess penalty tax on, assuming it will be sold at asking.

I encourage everyone to report all kind of tax evasions cuz it helps level out the playing field, and frankly I don’t like to see my taxes going to people richer than I am.

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space889

@Shut It Down Already – Well I know for the duplex and houses I’m currently looking at, I’m not competing against HAM, or even recent semi-rich immigrants. Rather, it’s all locals or CBC or Chinese who has been here for decades (even though they don’t speak fluent English). Heck, neither the neighborhoods nor the houses I look at and can afford would even interest HAM, even for land speculation process.

So yeah, whether HAM is real or imaginary, big or small influence don’t matter that much to me. I’m competing against locals who don’t mind taking on huge mortgages and have negative saving rates.

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IDIOT_RICH_COLEMAN

Lets try that without the typos!

To our stupid greedy politicians like Rich Coleman and Christy Clark who pushed away a speculator’s tax

this home sold in West Van a few month ago for $2.6 Million.

to my knowledge no one lived in it

Now it has been listed again for wait for it $3.8 MILLION!!!

http://www.rew.ca/properties/V1131586/2548-ottawa-avenue-west-vancouver

Homes here are no longer places to live they are places where off-shore money plays , while our foolish politicians turn the other way and pretend it isn’t happening.

If the owner sells it , I wonder what the chances are that they will pay FULL tax on the proceeds?

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LS in Arbutus

China’s markets have been leading “a life of their own,” Lukas Daalder, chief investment officer with Netherlands-based Robeco Investment Solutions, wrote in a Tuesday research note.

————

Kind of like Vancouver Real Estate.

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