It’s not a bubble, it’s a balloon. Lets give it more air.

Patriotz pointed out this article over at the Globe and Mail:

Economist caution against Harpers focus on rising home-ownership rate.

Stephen Harper is putting a new focus on Canada’s rising home-ownership rate, but some economists warn that pushing to drive it higher is a “wrong-headed” approach in an overheated market.

In government, the Conservative Leader brought in policies to encourage Canadians to save for their first home. Now, on the campaign trail, Mr. Harper’s promotion of home ownership is shaping up as a key part of his party’s pitch to Canada’s younger middle-class voters as he promises a package of new measures.

In a new twist to his message, Mr. Harper recently boasted that his party’s policies have contributed to the fact that Canada’s home-ownership rate is now higher than in the United States.

We’re number one! We’re number one!

Canada’s home-ownership rate is not often cited by Mr. Harper. It is a statistical achievement that did not turn out well for the U.S. when it reached a similar level more than a decade ago.

Oh. Read the full article here.

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Tiger
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Tiger
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“It is a statistical achievement that did not turn out well for the U.S. when it reached a similar level more than a decade ago.”

Is that the general case, though? I understand some countries have far higher ownership rates, and that doesn’t necessarily indicate high levels of speculation.

High prices are surely the thing which matters most. We have those. Why bother looking for secondary indicators?

If ownership rates are a factor I’d imagine the rate of increase is fR more relevant than the absolute number. I’ve not made any attempts to verify, however.

w
Guest
w

Barely Disguised Racism Has No Place In Vancouver Real Estate Discussion

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/lizanne-foster/vancouver-real-estate-chinese-buyers_b_7978002.html

CBM999
Guest
CBM999

Lots of Mainlanders seem to have listed their houses the last two weeks through my west side hood….

I’m sure margin calls in China are a lot more scary than here.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Totally going to vote conservative now, make this bubble as big as possible to maximize the fallout when it pops!

pull back
Guest
pull back

Word is out that since yuan has sank and stock market holdings sunk in China the flow of funds into Vancouver has diminished…my uncle is top dog at HSBC.

renters rule
Guest
renters rule
piklishi
Guest
piklishi

So I ward walking in my hood and got distracted by the open house signs. Well a lot of them, seems like some were cashing out. Anyway checked the first house, nice one renovated, and so many people inside. Mostly Chinese though. You would think they came for a bargain, omg the price was ridiculous, listed at 1.15m, really…oh yeah had a potential suite…
The second one listed for the same price,I asked the realtor: any Reno’s done? Well he didn’t speak English, he handed me the feature sheet and I left. Third one listed at 1.5m, you would think its a palace…I would not even live there, run down 15 years old house, horrible.
Conclusion is that owners can dream about selling it for this much. We,ll see.

George
Guest
George

From The Province:

It was interesting to hear Donald Trump, the billionaire real estate developer who wants to be president of the United States, talking about how many high-end New York properties he’s sold to buyers from China.

“They buy my apartments,” Trump told the usual rapturous crowd during a campaign speech last week.

“Fifty million. Forty million. Thirty million,” he boasted. “Fifteen million — they’re the cheap ones. I don’t have to worry about the rent, believe me.”

It’s often difficult to take The Donald seriously, but when it comes to the global power and reach of Chinese capital, his bragging rings true.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Smyth+Like+Donald+Trump+York+Vancouver+real+estate+prices+driven/11297199/story.html

Zero Down Forty
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Zero Down Forty

Trump’s just taking lessons from Cam Good.

ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts
Why do we need to worry about high home ownership rates? 1) Because when too many people own a home, it reduces the mobility of our workforce. Given the spotty/local nature of our economy, it’s important for our economy for people to be able to move within the country to follow the hot spots. When commodities are hot, people need to move to the west and our dollar is higher so manufacturing in the east suffers. When commodities are doing poorly the dollar drops and people need to move east to escape the barren mines, forests and oil fields of the west. Until we see major investment in diversification at the provincial level (likely will never happen,) this cycle will continue. With high home ownership rates, the teeter totter has tipped but people are nailed to the plank and they… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member
I have been visiting family in Northern Ireland for the past 4 weeks and have somme observations: 1) I can pay a realtor 995 pounds (C$2000) flat fee to sell my house. 2) A house is just a place to live in and there’s a house within 15 minutes drive of the city centre for anyone with a job – even one income families. 3) No one, ever, talks about HAM. It’s a total joy. It’s only after being away for a while that you realise how totally toxic the house-obsessed atmosphere has become in Vancouver. Families unable to buy, reno-victions, being told you are entitled if you think you should own a house within 2 hours of Vancouver. In other parts of the world it’s just a house you buy once you’re an adult and live in. No one… Read more »
Oracle
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Oracle

That Some airline passengers allow their kids to defecate openly on airplanes is the final straw. I’m definitely not moving to an Asian character city. No Richmind or Vancouver for me. What are the British character areas left in this city?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#12
British Properties. 🙂

patriotz
Member

@1: ” I understand some countries have far higher ownership rates ”

Countries with higher ownership rates have different household structures.

1. It’s the norm in many of them for young people to stay at home until married, or even after they are married. That’s one owner-occupied household, as opposed to here in Canada where you have Mom and Dad at home (one owner-occupied) and kids living in an apartment somewhere else (one rental each).

2. If someone rents out a room in their apartment (very common in Asia or Europe), that’s still one owner-occupied household. If someone here rents out their basement, that’s one owner-occupied household and one rental household.

That’s how you get the higher ownership rate. The % of adults who are actually owners isn’t higher.

George
Guest
George
Trump is actually not the same as Cam Good. The blog Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest describes Cam Good as a local real estate agent who attempts to over-exaggerate the effects of HAM in order to scare locals into buying, to prevent themselves from being priced out forever. He used gimmicky news stories with yellow helicopters full of Asian buyers to get across his message. http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2014/01/memories-of-cam-good.html This is not at all the same thing as Donald Trump talking about Chinese investment in real estate in the midst of an election campagin. I don’t get the impression with Trump that he is trying to pump up real estate or cause New Yorkers to fear they will be priced out forever so they better buy now. Cam Good talked about HAM as part of a realtor’s sale’s pitch to boost… Read more »
George
Guest
George
In defense of the NDP, this country needs more social housing, especially for ordinary working people, as opposed to the supportive housing model targeted to drug addicts under the BC Liberals. That still doesn’t excuse the NDP for ignoring the issue of foreign ownership. But more social housing would definitely be a good thing in my books. Hong Kong has about 50% of its housing stock in the form of public housing and they still manage to have a thriving speculative real estate market where mainland Chinese buyers are very active. Vancouver really has the worst of both worlds. We don’t have the social housing levels of Hong Kong or just about any other major destination for foreign investment (London, New York, all the major destinations for foreign capital in real estate have way higher social housing levels than we… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
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Bull! Bull! Bull!

“breathing Beijing’s air is the equivalent of smoking almost 40 cigarettes a day”

if only there was some place in the world they could live that had clean air, rule of law, direct flights back to the homeland, and they could speak their own language eat their own food and were welcomed with open arms. if such a place existed i bet the ones that could afford it would move there in a second. or at least send their wife and children there.

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21661053-new-study-suggests-air-pollution-even-worse-thought-mapping-invisible-scourge?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/Mappingtheinvisiblescourge

patriotz
Member

@17: “if only there was some place in the world”

There are actually quite of few of them, including a country that takes twice as many immigrants from China as we do.

” the ones that could afford it ”

How much wealth do you think can be pulled out of China without the house of cards falling down? Do you think Xi is just going to sit by and let it happen?

say whaaaa?
Guest
say whaaaa?

@18:

And you think Xi doesn’t have assets hidden offshore somewhere? Give your head a shake bud.

West-van-realtor
Guest
West-van-realtor

22nd and Palmerston in West Van- new house, Flipped several times in the last five years. All Chinese realtors. Each time for many hundred of thousands more.

never lived in!

But according to our Premier we have to protect the rights of these folk to be able to come here and launder their money though our RE.

patriotz
Member

@19: “And you think Xi doesn’t have assets hidden offshore somewhere?”

Of course he does. He wants the spoils to go only to his circle.

Can’t figure that out?

MikeS
Member
MikeS

@Shut It Down Already

You got my brain started, so I took a look at Prices compared to Ownership rates.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMtRmYcVEAAWqpO.png

I got the data from http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

and from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

The slope is statistically significant at the 1% level if we take into consideration that things are radically different in Asian countries for some reason.

realist
Member
realist
Vancouver RE is not unique. Most of the references to Auckland could be changed to Vancouver in the following article, and it would still make sense: “Weak NZ Dollar Makes Auckland Property Cheap Despite Price Rise” from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-17/auckland-home-prices-are-up-20-or-unchanged-if-you-re-chinese “Auckland home prices are up more than 20 percent in the past year. If you’re a buyer from China or the U.S., they’re not. The slump in New Zealand’s currency has made properties in the country’s largest city a bargain for foreigners, creating a headache for central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler, who has been trying to put a lid on the country’s overheated property market. “Five years ago I would have estimated two or three percent of Auckland properties were bought from overseas,” said Peter Thompson, managing director of Barfoot & Thompson, which says it sells one-in-three homes in the so-called… Read more »
MikeS
Member
MikeS

And yes that massive outlier at the top is Hong Kong. I also didn’t group India into “Asia”.

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