No sign of bubble bursting

This Vancouver Sun article used to have the headline “Vancouver housing market in bubble, new house price index claims.

That version of the article apparently included the following:

“While foreign investors are no doubt playing some role, we think this explanation is overblown. Low interest rates and self-fulfilling expectations of higher prices continue to inflate actual prices independently of fundamentals,” reads a press release from the creators of the index.

“Over the longer-term, we still believe that these housing markets will experience major price reversals.”

But that has since been updated to “Vancouver’s ‘housing bubble’ shows no sign of bursting” and we’re having a hard time finding the above quote. The article now says:

According to Davidoff, it is impossible to judge Vancouver’s real estate market on the same bases as that in other cities. In the Prairies and the U.S. Midwest, where space is plentiful, the value of a home is essentially what it costs to build. Vancouver, on the other hand, is almost out of new land to build on. “The house, that means, is worth whatever people are willing to pay,” he said.

We can’t quite put our finger on it, but it feels like there’s been a subtle shift in the tone of this article.

Read whatever the article currently says here.

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Canada’s ever growing housing bubble: As Alberta’s market tumbles, the rest of the country wonders who’s next”, Financial Post Magazine http://business.financialpost.com/financial-post-magazine/canadas-ever-growing-housing-bubble-as-albertas-market-tumbles-the-rest-of-the-country-wonders-whos-next “Some of the more bearish economists and prognosticators think Alberta’s malaise may spread to other parts of the country, particularly the hot markets in Vancouver and Toronto, which still show few signs of letting up. But David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics, thinks those two markets will correct by 30 per cent.” “Since 1951, the five-year mortgage rate in Canada has averaged 8.5 per cent, while the median during that time is 7.46 per cent, according to Bank of Canada statistics. The five-year rate hit a high of 21.46 per cent in September 1981, and sunk to its lowest at 3.71 per cent in July of this year. To put that in perspective, a $100,000 mortgage in September… Read more »
Natcho
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Natcho

Double Plus Good!

House prices have always gone up and always will because reasons.

space889
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space889
Is there SFH in Manhatten? LA city itself? San Diego city proper? Or city proper/center in any tier 1, 2, 3, 4 city in China? If you think that’s where Vancouver will eventually up being, mostly multi-family with small enclave of nice SFH mansions, then you will buy the land no matter the price. Especially if you got more cash than you know what to do with. It is simple as that. Only when Vancouver population trend actually reverses then there might be hope that SFH land prices in choice areas will likely drop. In the under $1M range, without massive interest rate increase and/or unemployment issues, good luck with getting any price drops. There are too many potential buyers on the sidelines waiting to jump in to get that SFH they feel they so deserve, just cuz they were… Read more »
jonathan
Member
jonathan

Unfortunately even the mighty Google didn’t seem to have been able to cache the original version in time before they changed it (at least not from my efforts to find the cached version). All I could find was a slight reference between the 2 edits:

https://app.box.com/files/0/f/3530204677/1/f_37390044110
https://app.box.com/files/0/f/3530204677/1/f_37390045242

But that’s all the evidence I could find about the edits – at least it shows the 2 different article titles and the different tone (both links point to the same article of course).

Did anyone else have any luck? I think for future, if we come across interesting articles it’s probably best to paste the text here in the comments section so it’s preserved?

W
Guest
W

A. Touts Itself as “Northern Capital of Latin America” for 2024 Olympic Bid

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/la-touts-as-northern-capital-823232

Just as LA is a Latino capital Vancouver is a Chinese capital. This is th way the world is heading.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

say what? no bubble busting? it’s time to pull out all the charts and graphs. where are those arm-chair economists?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

would have been nice to have eavesdropped on that call to the Vanc Sun editor

more importantly, who made the call? and how far up on the food chain is this person?

RE developers?
high ranking local politicians?
the who’s who of the banking world?
the premier?
stephen harper’s office?

patriotz
Member

@3: “Is there SFH in Manhatten?”

Gracie Mansion 🙂

“LA city itself?”

Hundreds and hundreds of thousands. Ever been there?

“San Diego city proper?”

Couple hundred thousand. Ever been there?

How about leaving the rhetoric for places you’re familiar with.

space889
Guest
space889

San Diego -> should have been San Fran, got those two mixed up.

Yes, I’ve been to both places and no, there aren’t any detached SFH neighborhoods in those cities/areas. But whatever, you always have to be right even when you are wrong.

space889
Guest
space889

Hate to break it to the bears but newspaper aren’t under any legal requirement to preserve any story they publish once they publish it online. This isn’t like some school homework that once you hand it in, that’s it, no more changes allowed. News site can update, or complete change their story as they see fit. Maybe some advertiser complained, maybe they just didn’t like the story themselves. Who knows? and frankly who cares? Especially from people who loves to trash the Vancouver Sun in the first place.

If you are confident in your case, why are you people getting so worked up over this? Unless, you aren’t confident at all and is looking for confirmation in any and all places? Even trash newspaper you normally hate?

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

More signs of tremors in our office.

Volume of calls concerned about where the market is going/value of holdings is trumping calls from new or existing buyers who want to add or establish real estate holdings.

Question I have is, could the entire narrative about HAM change on a dime? Could there be a mass liquidation.

Rumors of increased difficulty/scrutiny on getting $ out of China are racheting about.

China itself is not looking like it’s booming.

Inflection point?

Our office is adding new listings faster than sales. I am guessing that listings are going to head north, which again could trigger more anxiety.

Unless interest rates get cut again.

Interesting times.

WSR

vangrl
Member
vangrl

there are hardly any SFH in downtown Vancouver either, you have to go across the bridges.

Kind of like going from Manhattan to Brooklyn.

North, East and West Van are not considered “Downtown”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

final blowoff top for stocks is underway. fed will not raise rates on thurs because things are way more wobbly than they might appear. caution warranted.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Another Bubble article

“On that front, Edmonton real estate agent Greg Steele, past president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, notes that legal action is “starting to creep into the market.” When homeowners fall two months behind in their mortgage payments, he says, the banks will send letters demanding the money owed be paid. Such letters, a precursor to foreclosure, are on the rise. “It’s something we haven’t seen in a few years,” he says, though he adds that judicial sales “are not going to be a huge portion of the market.” Affordability also remains an issue in parts of the country. Annual price gains in some markets have outstripped income growth, notes Kavcic.”

http://business.financialpost.com/financial-post-magazine/canadas-ever-growing-housing-bubble-as-albertas-market-tumbles-the-rest-of-the-country-wonders-whos-next

Also, talking on BNN about a possible 20-22% drop in Alberta

realist
Member
realist

@3 space889

Your examples are faulty, as pointed out above, but that is a minor matter beside the fundamental flaw of your analysis: you do not acknowledge or consider the behaviour of real markets, of which RE is a foremost and highly leveraged example. The longest and best record of residential RE valuations is Oslo – the capital since 1300 of one of the world’s richest and most stable countries, Norway. And because it’s so rich, stable, and organized, we have the transaction data on RE there since 1819! Have a look-see at the figures, courtesy of Norway’s central bank:

http://www.norges-bank.no/Upload/import/publikasjoner/skriftserie/35/chapter9.pdf

http://www.norges-bank.no/pages/93045/Norges_Bank_Working_Paper_2013_05.pdf

patriotz
Member

According to Davidoff, it is impossible to judge Vancouver’s real estate market on the same bases as that in other cities. In the Prairies and the U.S. Midwest, where space is plentiful, the value of a home is essentially what it costs to build.

Canadian cities are more expensive than US cities in comparable regions across the board. West Coast, Prairies, Midwest. For example, there is no city in the US between the Rockies and the Mississippi that is as expensive as Calgary – indeed Dallas and Houston, which are much bigger, are much cheaper.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Simon
Guest
Simon

Yep. It’s official. Vancouver has just about run out of land.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=8KUtAAAAIBAJ&sjid=5J8FAAAAIBAJ&pg=1947,3243516&hl=en

Oops. That article was from 1968. My mistake. I am sure we have run out of land THIS time though.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@19

“Suppose that only 10 percent of grassroots party cadres are corrupt….”

Given the general ethics and morals of that country I would think the number would be slightly higher, maybe around 98-99%.

Garth would of course say the number is irrelevant because none of them are buying houses in Vancouver.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

18: Yep, look at this map. The area in green hasn’t been developed. Almost out…

https://vancouverflippersintrouble.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/alr_map.jpg

trest
Guest
trest

I see fewer HAM shoppers in Holt Renfrew. Something has them scared.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“Inside the world of B.C.’s top realtor: A deep pool of Mainland Chinese buyers, a dead fraudster and a forfeited licence

A Province investigation into hundreds of pages of court documents highlight the money, associations and conflicts surrounding an exceptional realtor in an extraordinary period for Vancouver real estate”

http://www.theprovince.com/news/inside+world+realtor+deep+pool+mainland+chinese+buyers+dead+fraudster+forfeited+licence/11365879/story.html

Loon
Guest
Loon

@trest

Yeah, they are all at Nordstrom.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Nordstrom doesn’t open till Friday

they’re scared

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