Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again, time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

It’s Friday Free-for-all time!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Trade deficit widens
The problem with everyone
$2m house on 19k a year income
Wealthy Chinese blamed
Not the most rigorous study
How to solve the Vancouver problem
Overbuilding?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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david
Guest
david

I think a big shout-out to Franco-Nevada is in order from all Vancouverites today. This week, Franco bailed Teck Resources out of a very dire situation wrt its financial liquidity, buying a $600 million royalty from its big silver mine in S. America and thereby keeping the wolves from the door.

As Teck represents the most well-known corporate head office in Vancouver (one of the pathetically few at all….), it’s important.

But I guess the greeenies out there will end up protesting it into oblivion eventually anyway. Whatever….go buy a house!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Housing ‘going to suck’ in the next five years: O’Leary”, CNBC/Yahoo Finance

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/housing-going-suck-next-five-193000061.html

“”Shark Tank” Investor and O’Leary Financial Group Chairman Kevin O’Leary discusses why housing might not be the best investment.”

right-or-wrong
Guest
right-or-wrong

Lets consider for a moment.

1) Id there any chance any level of government will stop the flow of laundered HAM, or the CRA will do it’s job, or banks and Realtors and lawyers will actually be nailed by FiINTRAC- zero to the all.

2) Is there any chance that interest will rise with Poloz at the helm. Zero

What does that leave? A worldwide recession, because we are in a canadian recession and it had very little effect on vancouver RE due to 1) above.

The Central banks will try and prevent that by printing money.

So we either have to wait for this monster to collapse of it’s own weight. leave for Seattle, Portland or Austin where there are better jobs, less HAM, and lower priced housing, or buy in and mortgage our future.

patriotz
Member

@2: “Housing ‘going to suck’ in the next five years: O’Leary”

Keep in mind he’s talking about the US where housing is far better value than in Canada – even in San Francisco you can buy a SFH for about the cost of renting, and you can lock in rates for 30 years.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 7.1%, economy adds 12,000 jobs
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/jobs/article26734841

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #2,4

i don’t know why anyone even listens to the clown. all hot air with abysmal track record. anyone that acted on any of his recommendations over the years lost money. in some cases, the losses were catastrophic.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

Canada’s ruling Conservatives seek investigation into pro-Trudeau group, based in Chinese graft suspect’s office

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1863522/canadas-ruling-conservatives-seek-investigation-pro-trudeau-group-based

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

Vancouver doctors create tool to bridge gap between traditional Chinese and Western medicine

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2015/10/07/bc-docs-create-tool-to-bridge-chinese-western-medicine-gap.html

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#3

“What does that leave? A worldwide recession, because we are in a canadian recession and it had very little effect on vancouver RE due to 1) above.”

What caused the reversal in China?

http://triplecrisis.com/the-bursting-of-chinas-housing-bubble/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #7

this may have sealed the conservative’s fate. this strategically timed about face right before the election isnt sitting well with many. i’d love to see him bring up the subject while he campaigns in HAM central this morning. instead of rushing the stage, maybe some realtor in a bentley will run him over and toss his body in the trunk?

at the end of the day i think it is justin’s election to lose now…
http://vancouvercondo.info/2015/08/eliminating-affordability.html#comment-260956

S.Bby
Guest
S.Bby

#1 David
Right on about Teck. Not the first bullet they’ve dodged but unfortunately it won’t be the last. I wonder how long their luck will last?

realist
Member
realist

@6 bullwhip29; @4 ; @2

As a small-time Canadian peddler of investment advice, Kevin O’Leary is reminiscent of Ms. Abby Joseph Cohen, partner in Goldman Sachs and formerly their Chief Investment Strategist.

It is a mystery to me why anyone gives Ms. Cohen the time of day, much less follow her investment advice, after her perma-bull cheerleading of a huge flock of retail investors over the cliff, not once, but twice! – in the market crashes 2000 and 2007. For all her good work, GS promoted her.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abby_Joseph_Cohen

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

I mashed up a couple of charts related to the TPP since it has been touted lately:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/who-will-benefit-from-tpp

Secrets and lies… trade deals cannot be good for everybody just as military deals exclude some from the battle field. Someone has to give up something to make a trade or win a war. As Trump said, let the Russians have Syria…. they didn’t like Afghanistan too much after awhile.

space889
Guest
space889

@realist – Goldman don’t care about your forecast accuracy. All they care is how much $$$ you made for the firm and will be making for the firm. She obviously is making the firm lots of $$, or else she wouldn’t be promoted.

After all, if GS need to dump some crap, or buy some quality assets on the cheap, they have to get it from the sheeples and I guess Ms. Cohen is perfect at doing that job.

space889
Guest
space889

@Brian Ripley – Please research “comparative advantage” and then come back….

realist
Member
realist

@14 space889

You are so right. In order to cash in, every investment bubble needs its bag-holders, and Ms. Abby Joseph Cohen has been good at finding them and sticking it to them.

N.B. all RE perma-bulls – this principle also applies to RE investment bubbles.

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer
Why aren’t politicians talking about the side-effect of foreign ownership that causes locals to take on huge mortgage debt just to compete in the marketplace? I have many friends who are all in on real estate and have huge mortgages (as in, $1M on their $1.3M houses or own multiple properties). When rates rise those locals who have extended themselves will be fucked unless they can sell to foreigners. Local new buyers are praying that HAM never stops and rates never rise. That’s a big gamble that is so far paying off. But, what if the tide turns? Our finance minister doesn’t seem to care and has pledged to stay out of the market. Our PM has promised higher ownership rates for Canadians. Our premier has gone on record yesterday to state she isn’t banning foreign ownership. It’s to the… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #12
not that i am a fan of cohen and/or goldman sachs myself, kevin o’leary has no qualifications whatsoever to be giving out investment advice. at best he’s a hack third rate jim cramer wannabee.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/kevin-oleary-hes-not-a-billionaire-he-just-plays-one-on-tv/article4564334

patriotz
Member

@17: “Why”

Politicians don’t say what voters don’t want to hear, and the 70% who are owners don’t want to hear that prices might or should go down.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

#19

Patriotz do you think house prices in Vancouver will continue to rise in the next 2 years?

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“By allowing foreign buyers to buy American homes in large numbers, affordability of housing for American middle-class citizens is only going to further erode, eventually to the point of them not being able to afford homes in their own country.
Even worse may happen when the next market correction occurs. As properties lose their values, there may likely be a much stronger, secondary wave of foreign demand that could snap up American homes at an even faster pace, creating a very serious problem of affordability for middle-class Americans. The only way to truly remedy this potential threat is to either severely restrict or otherwise exclude foreigners from buying American homes. This would pave the way for domestic supply and demand to become an exclusively American issue, where the prices of residential properties would adjust in line with American citizens’ affordability factors”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-danger-of-foreign-buyers-gobbling-up-american-homes-2015-10-08

Yunak
Guest
Yunak

@17

“But, what if the tide turns?”

It won’t. Canadian economy (system) looks like like some controlled Soviet (SSSR) monster-system where party controls the economy and market by letting interest groups and oligarchs to break laws and by supporting and encouraging expansion of the black money markets to run it. HAM and their dirty shit is just the best possible thing that could have happened to support this travesty. Until people and “working class” do not literally confront and stop HAM garbage this failure and ruination of our society won’t stop.

a-non-mouse
Guest
a-non-mouse

@21

“If the American government doesn’t take serious, pro-active measures to ensure that the cost of sheltering for Americans becomes an exclusively domestic affair, there is a good possibility where, in a not so distant future, foreigners may become major landlords of U.S. homes, dictating their prices and rentals. Effectively, they’ll be in position to hold Americans at ransom in their own country. ”

Welcome to Vancouver!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Patriotz says: even in San Francisco you can buy a SFH for about the cost of renting…

What a joke. A SFH in San Francisco you say aye? Up on the hill or in the tech-heavy Misson. Har. D. Har. Har. Patriotz you really are the greater fool.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Shhhhh!

Patriotz is going to correct some more post this weekend. Let’s hear what he says….

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