Friday Free-for-all

It’s that time of the week again…

Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Sales fall because not enough inventory?
–Hey, Politicians!
–BOC not responsible for record debt
–Shaky economy for next PM?
–It’s all relative
–You can’t afford the burbs
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Owe Canada

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I haven’t heard any discussion in this election campaign about two major problems we in Canada (as well as all of the other so-called advanced economies of the world) have, which I heard described nicely by a financial analyst on a money show on a Vancouver, B.C. radio station back in December, 2010: “Way more money has been borrowed than will ever get repaid” “Way more promises have been made by governments and so on than will ever be kept” Interesting economic/financial system we have developed for ourselves in Canada in that it seems we have to constantly grow the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows. Our annual gross domestic product is $1.98 trillion. At the end of June, 2015 the total household, government (all levels) and business debt in Canada (total debt outstanding) was… Read more »

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Justin Trudeau promises to make family reunification easier for immigrants Trudeau said that if a Grit government is elected on Oct. 19, it would double the number of applications for parents and grandparents that could be submitted each year to 10,000. The Conservatives capped the number at 5,000 in 2013, saying that the number of older immigrants allowed into Canada must be limited because of the burden they place on the health-care system and other social security programs. In May 2013, then citizenship and immigration minister and current Conservative candidate Jason Kenney said it was “just not right” that a growing number of older immigrants were ending up on welfare, calling it “an abuse of Canada’s generosity.” In place of new applications, the Conservatives introduced 10-year “super visas,” which allow the family members of some new Canadians to stay in… Read more »

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Bentleys and Bordeaux: Chinese newcomers drive Vancouver’s luxury market

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0S81I920151014

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southseacompany

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“Canada’s housing affordability: The math that doesn’t add up”, BNN video

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-canadas-housing-affordability-the-math-that-doesnt-add-up/article26824393/

“BNN crunches the numbers with Samantha Brookes, Founder & CEO, Mortgages of Canada to get a better sense of an average Canadian’s ability to buy a home in a current market. We look at personal income, debt, and an average price of a home as a case study of the challenges a new home buyer faces.”

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southseacompany

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“Donald Trump: Janet Yellen keeping interest rates low for political reasons”, Washington Times

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/16/donald-trump-janet-yellen-keeping-interest-rates-l/

“Real estate mogul and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said Janet Yellen, who chairs the Federal Reserve, is keeping interest rates low for political reasons and that the Obama administration doesn’t want to risk triggering a possible recession before the president leaves office.”

““Keeping these interest rates at this level … this is a political thing. When they get raised, perhaps with the next president, you’re going to see some bad things happen,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that aired Friday.”

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southseacompany

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“Home sales fall in Toronto, Vancouver because not enough property on market: CREA”

http://www.nationalpost.com/home+sales+fall+toronto+vancouver+because+enough+property+market+crea/11440706/story.html

“David Madani, an economist for Capital Economic, continues to predict there will be a pullback in prices. “Overall, while most markets are responding logically to softening domestic economic conditions, Vancouver and Toronto continue to exhibit bubble behaviour. Over the longer-term, we still believe that these markets will experience major price corrections,” he said.”

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Westside Realtor

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fewer sales = lower demand.

Sellers will get the message.

Lower for longer.

WSR

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

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>We look at PERSONAL INCOME, debt, and an average price of a home as a case study of the challenges a new home buyer faces.

then they are using bad data, because we all know HAM doesn’t declare income.

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realist

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The following article reports on New York City, but conditions described are seen often enough in Vancouver:

from Alternet:

“Rich People Scared to Move into High Rent Apartments Because of Homeless Displaced by High Rents — Is gentrification eating its tail?”

http://www.alternet.org/rich-people-scared-move-high-rent-apartments-because-homeless-displaced-high-rents

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bullwhip29

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@ #6
fewer buyers = fewer sales

@ #7
they are only looking at data which is available. math doesnt add up because they are using the wrong formula. the banks could help to fill in the blanks so to speak with regard to HAM, but won’t. HAM doesnt require financing, but rather a conduit with which they can circumvent the laws in a somewhat plausible fashion (ie. making a large purchase). its win-win for all involved

Guest

This post from Oracle worth a reread

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Vangrl:

It is really that simple.

Only allow Canadian Citizens to own residential real estate in Canada.

“Everything else drawing attention to interest rates, CMHC policies, etc is just a sham to deflect attention from the primary driver of house price gains. Sure these have an affect but houses don’t cost $2 million because of these.

Again:

—> restrict Canadian residential real estate and farmland to Canadian citizens.

Foreign money inflows would stop because they would have to put it in a bank. Haha, not likely.”

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Whistler or bust?

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REPOST – I didn’t get near enough Bulls answering these questions – Actually none of them did. I will be the first to admit I have been very wrong about the direction of Van RE in the past 2-3 years. That disclaimer said, lets examine some facts to see if there is any upside left: These are the incomes required to be in each % (Source CBC) 10% of income earners $80,400* 1% of income earners $191,100* 0.1% of income earners $685,000** 0.01% of income earners $2.57 million* So with the average Vancouver detached home at $1,408,722 (Source Yatter Matters) A DP of $281,744 is required to buy PPT is $26,174 Misc Closing $2,000 Total $309,918 Mortgage $1,126,978 @ 2.59 for 5 yrs = $66,072 Annually ( I will note these are record low rates) Assume 1% Annual Maintenance (This… Read more »

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bullwhip29

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@ #10
unfortunately this is all wishful thinking. cdn RE house of cards is simply too big to fail now. best case is cdn citizens/1st timers will be tossed some crumbs in the form of tax breaks/deferrals, lower fees/rates, easier access to credit and the like.

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Zero Down Forty

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Not too many homes over $2 million are being sold.
Out of the 13,000 homes for sale in Metro Van right now,
only 1,000 are over $2 million.

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/map.aspx#CultureId=1&ApplicationId=1&RecordsPerPage=9&MaximumResults=9&PropertyTypeId=300&PriceMin=3000000&TransactionTypeId=2&StoreyRange=0-0&BedRange=0-0&BathRange=0-0&LongitudeMin=-123.34547424316388&LongitudeMax=-122.418502807617&LatitudeMin=48.97376056593517&LatitudeMax=49.455928978155875&SortOrder=A&SortBy=1&viewState=m&Longitude=-123.066696166992&Latitude=49.3166961669922&ZoomLevel=13&CurrentPage=1

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Diadora

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From the end of August to the end of September, (Chinese) police smashed 37 underground banks and captured 75 suspects.

They have also uncovered dozens of major cases involving a total of 240 billion yuan ($37.8 billion), the Ministry of Public Security said.

These crimes not only involve financial and securities offences, but have also become an underground route and method of money laundering for many suspected corrupt officials and terrorist suspects to illegally transfer their money overseas, he said.

The ministry has also tightened supervision of offshore companies and targeted underground banks to prevent suspects from sending proceeds abroad.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-cracks-down-on-black-banks-stashing-ill-gotten-wealth/articleshow/49411899.cms

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bullwhip29

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@ #13
in other words 12k < $2M available

and the underlying message in this article
http://www.nationalpost.com/home+sales+fall+toronto+vancouver+because+enough+property+market+crea/11440706/story.html

is total and complete BS

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Funkey monkey

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What ever happened to the condo building EVAN on great northern near main?
It had condos for sale now a rental building?

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southseacompany

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“A world of economic hurt awaits Canada’s next government”, Macleans magazine

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/what-a-stagnating-global-economy-means-for-canada/

“The storm clouds gathering over the global economy will make it hard for the next government to deliver on its promises”

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southseacompany

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“World markets count on Federal Reserve delaying liftoff until 2016”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/10/15/World-markets-count-on-Federal-Reserve-delaying-liftoff-until-2016.aspx

“Stocks rose around the world and emerging- market currencies advanced as weak economic data globally sent the odds of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates this year to a record low.”

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Funkey monkey

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#11 Whistler or bust
This is what I have been saying to people but they say prices only go up.
I am a millennial. Boomers just think I think I am entitled to a house.

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Charlie

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@13
Zero down Forty. thinks having ‘only’ 1,000 ‘homes’ over $2 million, yes TWO frikken MILLION dollars isn’t very much.

Zero down forty thinks we have 13,000 ‘homes’ on the market! In reality we probably have about 4,000 ‘homes’ and 9,000 shoeboxes…

..useful only for singles or at best couples if you can stomach having no personal space for more than a couple of years. It’s the perfect real estate industry recipe to confuse us all via stats and headlines. These aren’t lasting homes.

Hey ZDF, how many ‘homes’ under $1 million do we have? (which most of us still couldn’t qualify for anywhere near the credit to buy!) You know the kind of homes that aren’t boxes, and may, just may, have a yard. How many?

Member

Best place on meth

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@14

We need an extradition treaty where anyone suspected of stealing money in China and laundering it in Canada gets sent back immediately, no questions asked.

All of these crooks lied to get into Canada in the first place and therefore have no rights here.

Just line up the planes on the tarmac at YVR and fill ’em up.

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Yunak

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@21

We need an extradition treaty where anyone suspected of stealing money in China and laundering it in Canada gets sent back immediately, no questions asked.

It rather looks like that Vancouver/BC reached the point where is more likely for Julia Lau to become the 36th Premier of British Columbia than to clean up the garbage and send it back where it belongs, unless somehow people wake up.

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Zero Down Forty

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Re: #20 Probably not many. It’s people extending themselves to buy homes of all and/or any type over the last 15 years, especially in the period between 2003-2007 when the greatest gains happened, that created this asset bubble. Or more correctly, the increased borrowing power behind those purchases.

And since Metro Van’s home homeownership rate has increased from 55% in the 1980’s to 65% today, ‘most of us’ have been buying.

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crikey

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#11 Whistler or Bust said: “So the conclusion – Even the 1%ers are realistically priced out of the average Van detached home. Only the 0.1% and and above can really afford to buy.” Great analysis – Good read! I would point out for your statement above that it is talking about the “declared 1%” and “declared 0.1%”. As we all know, a tsunami of undeclared foreign income is a huge part of the problem with the market right now. When there are so many, many families immigrating to Canada, buying multi-million dollar properties, then only declaring a $19k yearly income (putting them ‘officially’ at the ‘poverty’ level!), then the declared earnings numbers you give sadly don’t truly represent what incomes are competing for property in Vancouver. The front end devastation of this tsunami is, of course, that all but the… Read more »

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Friday Free-for-all

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