BC, data

The crash? It’s in BC Immigration.

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49 Comments

The number of BC immigrants is down 66% in the first half of this year and has crashed to a 15 year low.

From Business in Vancouver:

As a panel discussion on foreign home ownership prepares to convene next week in Vancouver, the latest statistics show that international immigration to British Columbia has crashed to 15-year lows.

The first half of 2015 has seen a net increase of less than 6,000 immigrants into B.C., compared with more than 18,000 in the same period last year.

This was the first time in more than 15 years, BC Stats said, that B.C. experienced a net loss of non-permanent residents.

If the current trend continues, immigration to B.C. will fall below the annual inflow that forms a key foundation of housing demand forecasts.

The dramatic decline began in the fourth quarter of 2014 when net immigration fell to negative 1,808 people – meaning that many more people left B.C. for other countries than arrived. This was the first net loss of immigrants to the province in more than a decade.

Read the full article here.

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[…] –Trade deficit widens –The problem with everyone –$2m house on 19k a year income –Wealthy Chinese blamed –Not the most rigorous study –How to solve the Vancouver problem –Overbuilding? – […]

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bullwhip29

@ # 46/47

this is the kind of crap that gets marketed to idiots and/or absentee landlords/investors who have gotten far too complacent. but hey, developers love them as they can be slapped up very quickly at a significant cost savings and sold for nearly top price. the heck with safety, durability, comfort etc…

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Royce McCutcheon

@46: We aren’t ever going to agree on much, but I am 100% behind you on that one.

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space889

btw, is it just me who thinks those 6 storeys wood construction buildings sprouting up around town looks like fire death traps??

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space889

@Royce McCutcheon – A lot of new condos seem to be asking rents that are inline with at least what the mortgage monthly payments would be assuming a 20% or 25% down payment. Olympic Village & Metrotown new condos are very expensive to buy or rent. The new Marine Drive & Cambie condo complexes also likely going to have high asking rents once occupancy starts.

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space889

@mls watch – At the current standards, I would be happy with basic addition, subtraction without calculators, and able to estimate how much a 12% tax would be.

As for integral or Pythagoras theore, it probably gets used more often than one would think, just maybe not as obviously stated as would be on an exam.

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space889

– I don’t really care about what other Chinese think on these subjects, I just find it sad that kids these days cannot be kids anymore….

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bullwhip29

>>>i didnt notice that a response from Julia Lau (or more likely her handler) was appended to this story on Sept 29 (see link below). if this was already covered in a prev post, pls disregard. i find it interesting that this article remains online despite julia lau’s claims that “these allegations against me are completely untrue with no basis in fact.”

Inside the world of B.C.’s top realtor: A deep pool of buyers, a dead fraudster and a forfeited licence
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/inside-the-world-of-b-c-s-top-realtor-a-deep-pool-of-buyers-a-dead-fraudster-and-a-forfeited-licence

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mls watch

“end to stick to more basic fundamental type of education that’s we feel is more useful in real life”

Like Pythagoras’ theorem and integrals?

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patriotz

@37: ” shouldn’t we be noting that prices have actually declined (as measured in USD)?”

Not really, because what matters is the price relative to rents and incomes, all of which are in local currency.

My reply is that if Vancouver has caught up to the “world market”, that “world” must be one without the US.

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bullwhip29

@ #36
long term problem for owner who is unable to sell for various reasons (no buyer, underwater, in longterm lease arrangement w/ tenant etc).

@ #37
excellent point

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patriotz

@30: “Maybe, also less time spent teaching 6 years about gender fluidity, 6 sexes, etc, and let kids be kids longer than public school.”

Thanks for explaining Harper’s dog whistle, “These are the values of the Chinese Canadian community and they are also Conservative values.”

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Royce McCutcheon

#6 said: “2) vancouver price was undervalued and caught up to world market. It will slow its rate of rise (with 10-20% fluctuation) but continue at its long term growth rate”

If we’re talking about a “world market” perspective, shouldn’t we be noting that prices have actually declined (as measured in USD)?

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Royce McCutcheon

@32: I think that’s a fair point, particularly given that renters on average have lower incomes. A $500 hit would be unpleasant.

Let’s set aside an apples-to-apples comparison (which might be 2 families with identical household earnings entering the market today residing in identical condo units, with one paying a market price to buy and the other paying a market rental rate).

Who is worse off with the $500 increase? It sucks for all parties, no question, but I still see a lot more down side on the owner side of the equation if that condo hasn’t appreciated much because closing costs aren’t trivial and the attainable rent for a unit might be a pretty good chunk below the monthly carrying costs.

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Funkey monkey

#25 S.Bby Expensive bmw from Manitoba. Proof enough for me that that’s how people are immigrating. (more likely a stolen car)
There is an expensive Subaru from sask in my neighbourhood is that also how they are getting to Vancouver?

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bullwhip29

@ #32
no, they do not. and some wonder why debt levels keep rising. a typical person is treading water at best for as long as possible before refinancing all their problems away. wash, rinse, repeat.

bottomline is that this can’t last. owners cant keep increasing rents forever to offset their own borrowing/operating costs. look what happens when uber expensive restaurants and other businesses in vanc try to pass on these costs to their customers. without the renter, the whole house of cards (with the exception of fortified palaces) comes tumbling down in a hurry

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bullwhip29

@ #30 Do you really want to deal with teacher’s strike every few years when you have kids in school? >>> no Most of the locals I’ve heard talking about going to private school do it for pretty much one reason and that’s not having to deal with teacher’s strike. >>> that’s not the real underlying reason. today’s moderately monied, educated parents think their kids are more special, talented, intelligent and deserve better than the neighbor’s kid. needless to say, many of the fly-by-night quasi exclusive sounding private school wannabee businesses out there are taking many of these folks for a ride there are also other reasons like private school scoring far higher on those standardized tests, higher average marks, better programs, and higher rate of acceptance into university. >>>that’s a chicken and egg scenario similar to longevity/health issues with… Read more »

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space889

The average Canadian family don’t have $500 / month just lying around to spare, home owners or renters. This is more an issue of stagnate income rather than home owners vs renters. Most renters can’t handle a $500/month rent increase either.

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space889

Btw, Jack Ma’s son is in St. Georges. So bears can write that school off since it is infested with locusts 🙂

Assuming you can even afford it or get in.

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space889

@bullwhip – Do you really want to deal with teacher’s strike every few years when you have kids in school? All the disruption, not knowing how long it will last, looking around for last minute daycare options, the delay and continuing decay in your kids education? Not to mention if you have kids in grade 12 and teachers decide to start full strike in Feb/Mar. Most of the locals I’ve heard talking about going to private school do it for pretty much one reason and that’s not having to deal with teacher’s strike. Off course, there are also other reasons like private school scoring far higher on those standardized tests, higher average marks, better programs, and higher rate of acceptance into university. Maybe, also less time spent teaching 6 years about gender fluidity, 6 sexes, etc, and let kids be… Read more »

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bullwhip29

@ #26

perhaps he meant Wi?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17GbGmDORwk (btw this never gets old)

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bullwhip29

IMF cuts Canadian forecast, rebound prospects ‘subdued’ for 2016
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/imf-again-cuts-global-canadian-forecasts/article26677904

>>>but poloz, oliver, harper et al say relax, it’s all rainbows and unicorns from here…

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bullwhip29

Harper promises $1-billion if re-elected to help auto sector after TPP deal
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-offers-1-billion-to-help-auto-sector-after-tpp-deal/article26677638

>>>more goodies from camp stephen. he can officially seal the deal and clinch majority by throwing homeowners a lifeline as election days nears

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S.Bby

@23
Who is this “we” you refer to? Is there a group?

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S.Bby

Thee is an expensive BMW parked across the street from me that has been there and unmoved for two weeks now. It has Manitoba plates on it. Coincidence? I think not…

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