Will the new government drive house prices up or down?

How will the new Liberal government policies affect rates and house prices in Canada?

And just what does ‘affordability’ mean in this context?

“Here’s some of what the mortgage market can expect from Mr. Trudeau’s new government:

Higher bond yields: Balancing the budget is not a priority for the Liberals until 2019. Trudeau is expected to go on a spending spree and bond traders aren’t keen about it. It suggests a greater supply of government debt and potentially higher long-term yields to come. That, of course, could mean at least slightly higher fixed mortgage rates than we’d otherwise see.

A More Hawkish Poloz: The odds just dropped for a cut in prime rate. More spending by Ottawa puts less pressure on governor Stephen Poloz to stimulate the economy with rate cuts. The implied probability of a rate hike by next October has almost doubled, from 8% yesterday to 15% as we speak.

Wider RRSP Access: The Liberals say they’ll open access to the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan, particularly for homebuyers coping with significant life changes (divorce, death of a spouse, a sick or elderly family member, etc.). More access to down payment funds will prop up housing sales and home ownership slightly, and support home prices.

More “Affordability”: The Liberal platform includes a review of housing policy in high-priced markets. The new government will “consider all policy tools that could keep home ownership within reach.” What that means, we’ll have to wait and see. It could definitely be positive for renters and income property investors, given the Liberals have promised to “direct CMHC…to provide financing to support the construction” of new rental housing.

First-timer Support: Trudeau’s government will add more flexible programs for first-time homebuyers. This could mean any number of things, potentially even higher amortization limits for new buyers.
New Blood at the DoF: The Liberals will be installing a new Minister of Finance, who has enormous power over housing regulation. Will he or she be as hands-off on mortgage policy as the outgoing Joe Oliver? We’re guessing not. We’ll likely have an answer by the time the Liberals release their first budget next spring.”

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
patriotz
Member

The short answer is neither. They will pray for a “soft landing” – i.e. flat nominal prices and rising nominal incomes. That is what JT essentially said when the question came up at the economic debate.

Not exciting but better than Harper’s plan to increase ownership even more which was really a message to those in the know that he wanted higher prices.

Cat in the hat
Guest
Cat in the hat

Just ask me. I give you the solution to the housing problem.

SFH in Vancouver is like Oil to the Middle East. Tax it accordingly, and you and me will become Saudi Arabia Princes you see at Holt Renfrew at 3pm workday.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

lower loonie

slightly higher fixed rates (meaning a trend back to variable rate products)

somewhat firm bid under high end market

continued deterioration in low-mid level market for condos, apts

return to serfdom looking more and more likely

Amanda Lee
Guest
Amanda Lee

I think there’s potential for higher prices with the Liberals in power. Longer amortizations would definitely provide some fuel. I don’t think rates are going to shoot much higher in the next few years so impact from that will be small. Vancouver real estate is extremely overvalued but unless there’s some sort of unexpected shock (war, earthquake, financial crisis, etc) speculation should pay off in the near term (2-3 years).

patriotz
Member

@3: “return to serfdom looking more and more likely”

You do understand that serfdom made the gentry rich because the land returned more in income than it cost them? 🙂

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

these charts tell you everything you need to know…
http://tinyurl.com/nl32ndk

>>>imho this continues under trudeau’s leadership. when things eventually come to a boil (whether it is in china, canada, the US or elsewhere) the result will be messy

Yunak
Guest
Yunak
Well, it’s quite clear why SOME of our fellow citizens, residents and “investors” see Canada as a “temporary craphole” or a necessary evil that they had to deal with when launder/invest money, hide, study, medicate, etc. It is quite normal and expected to take advantage of place and circumstances that one consider hostile by avoiding duties and taxes, cheating, forging documents, collecting assistance, welfare and of course never bother to even try to learn local language, but anyway why – it’s all temporary and secondary or in some case by punishment and imprisonment like in this case below: “In his opening statement to the jury, Troy Anderson, Tang’s lawyer, said that the killing happened in a “moment of madness” and described how Tang’s parents had used corporal punishment on him growing up and had “exiled” him to Canada after rejecting… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889

@Yunak – If you got something to say about certain group of people, just come out and say it…..geez, trying to hide behind all the flowery ambigous words so you can claim you aren’t a racist, while calling everyone else who basically use the same tone and methods as you a racist.

BPOM is a piece of scum but least, he’s slightly better than you as he comes out and just say it and proudly claim he’s not a racist, even if he’s a fing coward in real life.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
>“In his opening statement to the jury, Troy Anderson, Tang’s lawyer, said that the killing happened in a “moment of madness” and described how Tang’s parents had used corporal punishment on him growing up and had “exiled” him to Canada after rejecting his first girlfriend. many want to be here only as long as they need to be in order to get the passort and be eligible for all the benefits, then they will go back and make their money. Some ethnic Chinese migrants in Richmond have told UBC researcher John Rose: “(Canadian citizenship) is more like an insurance policy.” Other transnationals refer to their years waiting in a new land for a passport as “immigration hell.” http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2014/08/02/the-unsettled-lives-of-wealthy-transnational-migrants/ they are even willing to commit fraud to fake residency so they don’t have to stay here any longer than they need… Read more »
space889
Guest
space889
@BBB – And those 300K Canadians citizens living in Lebanon are all model citizens, who stay and paid their taxes and due, and only moved to Lebanon cuz the economy there is much better? But they still file their Cdn tax returns right? Or all the brain drain people who got the free education in Canada and then went to make the big bucks in US. I bet they all kept filing their Cdn taxes to repay all the freebies they got while they were young and in school? Geez… Revoking citizenships for people like this is one of the few things Cons got right. But seems most Canadians don’t agree with that policy. Canada is selling its citizenship way too cheap and frankly to embarrassed to do anything about it which only encourage further abuse. Frankly, anyone who hasn’t… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>And those 300K Canadians citizens living in Lebanon are all model citizens, who stay and paid their taxes and due, and only moved to Lebanon cuz the economy there is much better? But they still file their Cdn tax returns right?

wrong.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Or all the brain drain people who got the free education in Canada and then went to make the big bucks in US. I bet they all kept filing their Cdn taxes to repay all the freebies they got while they were young and in school?

are you talking about these people?

Thousands of Chinese-Canadians lured back to Hong Kong by better job prospects than Vancouver can offer

at least their parents paid taxes, oh wait, they probably didn’t.

patriotz
Member

Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe awarded ‘China’s Nobel peace prize’

The chairman of an award dubbed China’s Nobel peace prize has defended the decision to honour Robert Mugabe, the Zimbabwean president, for supposedly “injecting fresh energy” into the global quest for harmony.

Mugabe, who has been accused of using systematic violence and torture to maintain his 35-year grip on power, recently became the latest recipient of China’s Confucius peace prize…

Previous winners of the Confucius prize include Vladimir Putin and Fidel Castro, who was praised by the committee for “speaking out against nuclear warfare”.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Any country that loves Mugabe and hates the Dalai Lama is a country I want to do business with.

God bless the Peoples Republic!”

– Christy Clark –

Manson
Guest
Manson

You dummies still here?!

patriotz
Member

Last chance to watch this before it goes offline! Remember your tax dollars paid for it:

http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/24seven

In two weeks you’ll have to settle for this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FoUytuoNi8

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

the liberal party will not use tax dollars to promote their own party. patriotz guarantees it!

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode

The price of SFH will continue to go up, as long as people make profit by flipping it:

4312 W 8TH AVENUE, Point Grey, Vancouver West, $6,782,000.00
This 4 years old house sold for $6,000,000 in the summer (assessed around $4,000,000), now it is on the market.

How can you claim “primary residence” for only a few months?

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V1131358&REBoards=All&From=MLS

patriotz
Member

@18:

They won’t have to. The media show JT for free, so he doesn’t have to pay anyone to do it.

space889
Guest
space889

@BBB – Yes, those hongers, taiwaners, and just plain local born Cdns who are now in US working for MS, AMZN, Google, Wall Street, etc. Most of them got a very low cost subsidzed education here and then bolted for greener pastures, never to look back. Heck, I’m not even sure they bother to repaid their student loans on the way out since it’s not Canada can really chase them in other countries.

These people should have their citizenships revoked if they haven’t been filing tax returns. If they want to come back here for free healthcare, and other benefits, then either paid back taxes or do it from scratch like an immigrants.

space889
Guest
space889
@patriotz – and how many people and countries did the Nobel Prize winner Obama bombed, droned, and killed? The astrocities in Syria and the rise of ISIS can be directly attributed to US foreign policies of toppling any ME countries that either do not have a monarch, do not have sharia law, or have elections even if the West claims are all rigged. But if you are a monarchy with Sharia and don’t believe in human or women’s rights then you are A-Ok and beacon of human rights as recent appointment of Saudi Arabia as head of UN Human Rights Council, with support from US and UK showed. Frankly, all these awards are all big sham and political back scratching. Nobel Peace Prize have lots of bad picks as well. At least, Mugabe hasn’t invaded or killed people in other… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl

#19

Are you sure about that? I’m seeing a listing in June for the same price that it’s listed for now.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

ah I see now it was listed in May for $6,480,000

I also think it may have been listed in Feb, just not sure if it’s the same listing as May. Doubt though, houses were selling in 11 seconds back then.

No wonder Realtors don’t want us to have this info.

Paul, how many times has this house sold in the last 3 years??

4312 West 8th

vangrl
Member
vangrl

PAUL

Are you starting to see luxury houses listed for longer than before the summer, or selling for closer to asking, rather than way over?

Is there a slight change in your opinion?

Thanks

wpDiscuz