Friday Free-for-all! November 20th 2015

Well, well, well…

you made it to the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all here on VCI!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

2 more years of price gains?
Will we get some good mexican restaurants?
Million dollar Canmore
‘Millennial blindness’
Wealthy oasis with slowing economy
Teck to shed 1000 jobs here
Lofty prices in historical context
20% drop would be ‘devastating’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Oracle
Guest
Oracle

“you made it to the end of another work week”

Careful there with the words, you might offend the non-working class..:)

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Heard some chatter from friends tonight regarding the 25000 Syrian refugees coming.

Most had to ditch their ID’s en route to Germany.

One guy mentioned the talk in the camps was what age to declare on arrival in Canada. Most of the adults want to declare something that is 10+ years over their real age. So someone born in 1990 will declare 1980.

Get your pension 10 years earlier. 🙂

But then again, all the parents/grandparents coming to Canada over the last few decades have been doing this so all is fair i guess.

Londonernow
Member
Londonernow

Just thought this story was interesting. Obviously it has nothing to do with Vancouver real estate as we’ve been told many times from many posters here its not foreign investment that’s driving the Vancouver real estate market. sarc/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/china-cracks-64-billion-underground-bank-moving-money-abroad

Loon
Guest
Loon

Middle-class Vancouver family can’t believe how many crawl spaces are in their price range

http://www.thebeaverton.com/national/item/2226-middle-class-vancouver-family-can-t-believe-how-many-crawlspaces-are-in-their-price-range

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Oracle, and your friends can prove this, right? Thought not. You do realise that the refugees arriving here haven’t simply walked over?

space889
Guest
space889

@pricedoutfornow – I have a feeling that the kind of ideal landlord you describe would number far far less than the number of renters out there….

space889
Guest
space889

@realist – *sigh*….

Ok, let’s get past this technicality, and replace buying it’s own preferred with that of another company – say a blue chip utility company’s preferred. Satisified now?

Geez….seriously…whether it buys its own preferred or that of another company with equal credit rating doesn’t alter the core of the arguement about whether taking a loan to buy stocks/preferred is a risk free proposition or not.

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

I mashed up some charts this week including Canadian Consumer and Mortgage Credit:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/worried

Auto loans and credit cards are starting to show up on default lists. It could be that the bottom end of the income stream is rolling over.

I went to an information session yesterday to accompany and support a Gen-X relative looking to upgrade their skill set here in Vancouver and the organizers commented that they had never had so many potential applicants in the room before (twice as many as usual) – upgrade cost $40,000+++ over 2 years… out of 50 applicants, 80% were women.

Interest rates may not rise anytime soon, but pressure on income streams is certainly rising.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

@shut it down :

Prove it?

Dude, I’ve been telling friends who’s grandparents are in hospitals to tell the doctors that they’re not really 100 years old so they can get proper treatment appropriate for a 80 year old.

I kid you not. That is an extreme example but I know many who came to Canada over the last few decades listed 55 as their age (even though most were around 50 as they were sponsored by their daughter who were chosen for marriage).

Just trust me. Or you could say ‘there is no data’.

Don’t worry, just work an extra 10 years so others can work 10 less.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

#7 Space

Banks make more profit loaning money out to suckers to buy houses at 3% interest than they ever would buying some other company’s preferred shares at 5%.

Nothing wrong with buying equities using borrowed money (on margin) investors do it all the time. The interest is tax deductible and the div tax credit makes it even more profitable. Div tax credit is for Canadian dividends only of course.

I love cash flow.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
@2 The Syrians won’t be coming from Germany, they will be coming from established UN refugee camps in Jordan & Turkey. “Unlike refugees flowing into parts of Europe, who undergo no security reviews, any Syrian refugee coming into Canada faces a three-phase security screen. In the first phase, refugees are selected from a large pool by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Of those, the UNHCR chooses only one to two per cent to go into a resettlement pool, Showler said. The UNHCR looks for those who are deemed less risky — women, children and those who may have sustained injuries from the conflict. But most importantly, anyone who could raise security markers, is associated with any jihadi groups or involved directly in the conflict, would be rejected, he said. Refugees are then referred to a visa officer for… Read more »
franko
Member
franko

@3
$64 billion is not exactly chump change, and reports from Bloomberg are not exactly idle chatter…and imagine Vancouver getting an honorable mention in the big league.

Loon
Guest
Loon
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
elvince
Guest
elvince

@BBB: Even if it was 0 risk, no prefered in the world would be T1C, so the bank couldn’t leverage it with cheap money. The banks makes more money lending 1000$ at 3% then lending 100$ at 5%.

The bank needs to make its ratios to access the virtually-free money, and to make its ratios, it has to lend, not own equity.

squeak
Member
squeak

#4: “Middle-class Vancouver family can’t believe how many crawl spaces are in their price range”

Oh, do not despair, it can be solved: use plastic pop bottles for natural light source. We can call it “windows sans view”.

http://www.gizmag.com/pop-bottles-provide-light/19829/

space889
Guest
space889

@HAMster – wait what?? what math are you using that shows that 3% is greather than 5%?? Especially since holding securities have less operating cost than holding shares.

space889
Guest
space889

@elvince – uhm…what?? Banks get most of their funds from bond market now, not GIC/saving/chequing accounts anymore. I don’t think smart investors would buy bonds at lower tax-disadvantage rate instead of preferred if the risk is the same.

btw, mortgages aren’t counted as T1C either. It’s an asset which banks have to hold reserves against. T1C capitals refers to stocks, preferred, bonds, cash & equivalent, and other securities issued by the bank. Gov’t debt usually gets counted as cash equivalent with almost no reserves against it assuming it is held to maturity.

David Lee
Guest
David Lee
http://www.vancouversun.com/life/douglas+todd+immigration+fraud+grand+scale/11532672/story.html From the article: In weighing Wang’s contributions to mass tax avoidance, Harris quoted Supreme Court Justice Peter Cory, who maintained the vast majority of Canadians who pay income tax by way of payroll deduction have little or no opportunity for evasion. “Those who do evade the payment of income tax not only cheat the state of what is owing to it, but inevitably increase the burden placed upon the honest taxpayers. It is ironic that those who evade payment of taxes think nothing of availing themselves of the innumerable services which the state provides by means of taxes collected from others.” In further justifying Wang’s seven-year sentence, Harris quoted B.C. Appeal Court Justice Sunni Stromberg-Stein, who said those who facilitate illegal migrants into Canada put an “astronomical cost” on the Canadian taxpayer, “fuel racial prejudice and racial tension” and… Read more »
Madashell
Guest
Madashell

@13

Billion dollars in the hole. Humm… 142 Billion USD left China in August alone and a lot of it is coming to Canada. The Liberals should look at ways of taxing this capital flight rather than letting it drive R.E. through the roof.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Space;

Only fools would have Canadian dollars in Canadian Banks right now.

The smart money went to the USD long ago. Not coming back until we bottom out. Mid 60’s is what I’m thinking.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Madashell:

If China’s working class ever find out what the rulers/business folks are doing by allowing illegal outflows of their countries wealth, then Look out.

Garth Turner’s industry is a huge recipient of this money after it has been thru the washing machine.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“A Bank of Canada interest rate hike is ‘miles’ away as consumers appear unenthusiastic about spending”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/a-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-hike-is-miles-away-as-consumers-appear-unenthusiastic

“Canadian households are making a bland contribution to an economic recovery battered by slumping crude oil prices, keeping the central bank stuck as the U.S. moves toward raising interest rates.”

History
Guest
History

smiles in the land of TrudeAU kilometers

paulb
Member

Happy Friday VCI!!

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