Friday Free-for-all!

Another weekend looms!

Inventory is at rock bottom levels!

We have temporarily turned off comment voting!

How you all doing?

What if this weekend we talked about the only thing that matters: data

Without data the causes and solutions to the Vancouver housing bubble are subject to endless bickering that devolves into nonsense.

WITH data the causes and solutions to the Vancouver housing bubble will also be subject to endless bickering, but at least the dabate could be based on facts.

That would be progress.

Post your thoughts in the comment section below and have a very good weekend!

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

No bubble, prices to rise:

“Toronto condo prices could skyrocket 40 percent, predicts major developer”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/Toronto-condo-prices-could-soar-40-predicts-developer.aspx

““My prediction, and I’ve been pretty accurate to date, is we are going to have a 30-to-40 per cent increase in values of the condo market in downtown Toronto over the next three to four years,” Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“If Canada’s housing boom goes bust, the labour market will feel the pain”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/4/If-Canadas-housing-boom-goes-bust-the-labour-market-will-feel-the-pain.aspx

“PART FIVE OF BNN’S WEEK LONG SPECIAL COVERAGE: RISKS AT HOME “

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“November homes sales in Vancouver up, but will it last?”, Global news

http://globalnews.ca/news/2375994/november-homes-sales-in-vancouver-up/

“The risk of a severe home price correction in B.C. and Ontario has risen to a medium probability event given the continued run-up in prices in Toronto and Vancouver,” TD economist Diana Petramala said in a new research note on Monday.”

“The commentary follows yet another warning from the OECD of overheated housing markets in Canada – with Toronto singled out in particular for being at risk for a “sharp market correction.””

“The CMHC, the federal housing agency, is also escalating its concerns, suggesting last month home prices across much of the country are overvalued.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Solid U.S. job gains make Fed likely to hike interest rates”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-jobs-gains-1.3350564

“The U.S. economy generated another month of solid hiring in November, making it highly likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates from record lows this month.”

Jimmy
Guest
Jimmy

@4 “highly likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates”

My concern is the last time the Fed Reserve started increasing rates from 1% to 5% between ’04-’07 our prices went ballistic… sort of like the guy’s prediction in your first comment.

space889
Guest
space889

BPOM seems going ballistic & hysterical when things don’t go the way he likes….man, if this is how the best and brightest locals is, no wonder there is no other industry in town. Who the hell would hire basket cases like this who can’t even admit they are wrong when they are consistently wrong, and basically blame everything on foreigners, instead actually doing some self-inspection and reflection.

Here’s a hint, the problem isn’t asians. The problem is staring you right in the face when you look in the mirror.

space889
Guest
space889

@Jimmy – Shhhhh….don’t tell the bears or they will tear you to pieces to daring to raise such blasphemy. You see bears like BPOM are holding out their last hope against hope that this 0.25% rate increase will be IT. It’s going to cause all the HAM to flee and crash the whole market from top down and they will finally be able to buy that SFH for pennies on the dollar like they deserve as god given right.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

Canada sheds 35,700 jobs in November, unemployment rate up to 7.1%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-canada-november-1.3350423

Canada and the US are going in opposite directions.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

BPOM:

Actually, about 33% of Canadians are doing great, better in fact. Its the other 66% that are in trouble…courtesy of a combination of gov policies and the fact that the 66% are too dumb to realize what going on.

USA has had it’s great reset and those with cash on the sidelines bought at the bottom a few years back. Great pace to be the last 6 years.

space889
Guest
space889

Canada and US going in different directions? Isn’t that just what Garth has been saying for the last few years?

Yunak
Guest
Yunak
Tiger
Guest
Tiger
Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

re DATA:

I noticed CMHC this week did a private presentation in NYC with respect to stress testing Canada if oil averaged $35/bbl for 5 years. I mashed up some charts to see what that would look like:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/35-oil-stress-test

Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.

Bullets from the presentation:

SCENARIO 1:
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
26% drop in Canadian home prices
12.5% peak unemployment

SCENARIO 2:
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction
30-44% drop in Canadian home prices
12-16% peak unemployment

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

DATA
…and on the employment earnings side (latest Canadian data):

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Last 10yrs SFD Prices are up
116% in #Vancouver
77% in #Calgary
96% in #Toronto

But Employment Earnings are only up
29% in #BC
46% in #AB
28% in #ON

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

ok… now some data for the bulls:

http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html#Double

The chart shows the bulls in charge prior to the 2007-2008 plunge that took the average Vancouver SFD price down $122,900, or 15.9% in 8 months (24% per year drop).

The crash derailed the exponential doubling trend and the new trend (black dashed arrow) from the April 2008 high to November 2015 projects that another doubling will occur March 2017 at $1,542,642.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@11

The gingerbread house just sold in a fierce bidding war, $600K over asking.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

According to the Globe & Mail, 94% of Syrian refugees contacted in UN camps were not too keen on coming to Canada. Hope we don’t have to kidnap them just to keep an election promise.

patriotz
Member

@17:

6% of 4,000,000 is 240,000.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

12, technically on the rise but still a tiny proportion overall. Nice try, though.

Cat in the hat
Guest
Cat in the hat

http://news.mingpao.com/pns/dailynews/web_tc/article/20151205/s00004/1449251314562

Hong Kong housing market has been dropping since Sep this year per Property Assessment, ie Government data, not WSR. Big developers, like Mr. Lee’s, has been unloading their condos. New condos prices are cheaper than used ones. So in 2nd handed markets, owners are unloading units with 10% off from 2 months ago.

How much the HK housing market resembles Richmond? HK is mostly 100% HAM Vs 40%, and has a real economy.

I cannot said about SFHs in Vancouver, since it has its divine status. But condo market in Vancouver are pretty much twins.

So, the link is like your kids school’s notices. It contains important information, please has someone translate for you.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

i bet you don’t know how to run a stress test for yourself. otherwise, how have your charts and graphs get so wrong?

ostritch
Member
ostritch
Cat in the Hat, According to Google translate sales and prices are down slightly in HK, that’s after 18 months of increases, which admittedly looks and sounds like Vancouver a lot. I think it’s all down to the anticipation of the FED as HK prices are even higher than here. I bet investors are taking a breather and waiting to see things how things pan out. In fact, every asset is holding its breath right now. I’m still not sure rates are going back to normal (3%-4%) any time soon (next 2 years) so it’s as likely the HK and YVR real estate markets will carry on after the new reality sets in. However, IF we see the FED raise a 1/4 pt after 1/4 point, things will be different. In this market, that usually means sticky prices. Maybe the… Read more »
paulb
Member
Active Member

New
97
Sold
136
TI:8539

For weekly sales & new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhod and market segment/price range can be quite different.

Cheers!

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Hçistory
Guest
Hçistory

HK is very sensitive to Fed hop scotch.. but the global EM (emerging market) wants to dance to jazz..

… unfortunately for transplants, Canada is more like France in the 1930s

http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/12/emerging-markets-what-has-changed.html

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
Rental market looks weird. Couple houses in my hood have been sold, bought, now on the market for about $5k. Comparatively, our house rent is $2k. $5k for a rental in East Van seems a bit excessive to me (considering what we pay). Also it seems you can get a pretty decent house in the west for this price, so why would someone pay the same amount for a house in the East (and both the houses I’ve seen for rent are 20 plus years old). My best guess is that these houses have been bought by “investors” (fools), who have been duped into believing these houses can be rented for $5k per month (haha), and given that they both went for over $ 1 million (obviously), it looks like a decent investment-so they can hold and flip in a… Read more »
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