Open Topic

Friday Free-For-All!

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81 Comments

It’s that time of the week again…

Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend – here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–The bank will pay your mortgage
–The illusion of equity
–More cutting by Poloz?
–Bubbles and crying wolf
–The kids are all right
–HSBC stops some china US mortgages
–Prices up beyond wages
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments section below and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] Patriotz pointed this out in the weekends open topic thread: […]

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southseacompany

More on negative Poloz;

“OPINION
Will negative interest rates help the Canadian economy?”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/will-negative-interest-rates-help-the-canadian-economy-1.3427828

“Mr. Poloz believes that the rate that would stimulate our economy is somewhere near minus one per cent. If he could bring rates closer to that mark, the thinking is that the economy would pick up.”

“In theory, of course, nothing prevents the Bank of Canada from setting its rate at minus one per cent and some commentators have said this will likely happen in 2016.”

“Will negative rates work?”

“In the end, I hate to sound like a broken record, but monetary policy has been largely useless. What we need now is significant fiscal stimulus, precisely what John Maynard Keynes prescribed. Will governments finally listen?”

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patriotz

Tomorrow there will be provincial by-elections in Van Mount Pleasant and Coquitlam Burke Mtn. Both former MLA’s ran in the recent federal election – for the NDP (won) and Conservatives (lost) respectively. What do the candidate websites have in common? None of them have anything to say about housing. For example in Coquitlam Burke Mtn which is the only real contest: http://www.jodiewickens.bcndp.ca/issues http://www.bcliberals.com/joanisaacs/ However I think this bizarre paragraph by Issacs on “Sharing Economy, Growing BC Tech” is notable: I will advocate for a Sharing Economy to optimize new services for families – the Ubers, the AirBnBs, the Lyfts. A diverse economy means being open to new ideas and technologies. A Sharing Economy encourages the tech sector in BC, which helps create jobs and generates investment. It starts by giving British Columbians the freedom to participate as entrepreneurs or consumers… Read more »

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

had dinner with a friend who is highly placed in a big bank over the weekend. she said that she hates dine-out. i agreed. the service sucks, and it ruins dinner for regular customers. she also said that it looks like i’m loosing weight. i was flattered and i think my sun run training is starting to show.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

ndp will win the by-elections. ruling party almost never wins byelections in bc. turnout is so low it’s meaningless. “sharing economy” is a millennial friendly synonym for deregulation. uber will undercut the competition until it achieves a monopoly. then it will drive down driver pay and increase fares. in the end, it’s the people who want these services that will suffer for their shortsightedness. taxi drivers will be collateral damage.

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space889

Once automated self driving cars becomes legal and accepted in about 10 to 15 years, all those UBER drivers who helped UBER get the monopoly will be unceremoniously given the boot as UBER cuts out that pesky human cost that’s reducing the profit. But surge pricing will likely still be there and possibly even worse, all to get more autonomous cars onto the road.

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I\'m With Stupid ^

http://www.theonion.com/graphic/renting-vs-owning-home-52247
Its funny cause its true.

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space889

So what’s the word on the group Westside Realtor? We haven’t had a market update from him/her for a long time??

btw, so VanRant’s anecodote is totally valid but bestplaceonearth’s meeting with a top 5 bank exec is not?? Seems biased much?

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VanRant

Bass told the WSJ that China’s woes are actually “much larger than the subprime crisis,” and he believes the country’s currency could plummet by as much as 40 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/31/chinas-currency-becomes-the-target-of-speculators-wsj.html
Wow! 40% firesale in China!

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GreenSalad

Wentworth golfers threaten legal action over £100,000 charge planned by new owners

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12131795/Wentworth-golfers-threaten-legal-action-over-100000-charge-planned-by-new-owners.html

Interesting story….

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Whistler or bust?

http://bloom.bg/1QLYddx

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vangrl

Worst month since 1991: new home sales in Hong Kong plunge 80 per cent in January
http://www.scmp.com/property/article/1907982/new-home-sales-hong-kong-plunge-80pc-january?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed

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bestplaceonearth

just had brunch with a friend, who is on the top management level of one of the big five banks. he said, if you think the van RE price is to expensive now, you haven’t seen any thing yet.
take it for what it is worth.
the phrase “buy now or be priced out forever” is so true.

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Whistler or Bust?

That is hilarious. You are taking advice from someone who has a vested interest in the bubble continuing to inflate.

The top is in.

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Turist

The asshole is troll, a spacefuck 5-cent- party buddy. Top management level level of one of the big five banks, brunch… Shitload of crap, what a delusional moron…

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Shut It Down Already

Brave man calling the top when interest rates might yet go lower and inventory is at its lowest in a decade. Do you genuinely believe it or are you just being argumentative?

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Whistler or Bust?

As I posed here a week or so ago. I think between now and the next 3-6 months will mark a very long term top for Vancouver RE. I base this on several things but mainly that the dirty Asian Money (I am trademarking that by the way – no more HAM. DAM is the new lexicon) Is drying up faster than people think. This market has to be able to stand on its own fundamentals and I think we passed that in 2005. When it pops it’s going to be far worse than ever the most ardent bear can imagine. I am more convinced of it with each passing day.

So no SIDA I am not being argumentative.

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YLTNboomerang

So you were in Toronto having lunch?

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wwwww

International visitors on the rise in BC

http://www.cknw.com/2016/01/31/international-visitors-on-the-rise-in-bc/

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tedeastside

UBC its worth it, this house is only a 5 minute walk from Mcdonalds

talk about convenient

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VanRant

Just had dinner with a mid level big 5 banker and she said this year will be a very bad year for Vancouver Real Estate cause the Chinese government is now blocking all money from
China that is destine for the off-shore Real Estate Markets.

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wwww

They were always attempting to block the money and the money always came through.

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Shut It Down Already

You’d think somebody with access to some of the pertinent market data would understand that the majority of purchases are LOCALS.

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YLTNboomerang

So why do you think they are selling it partially finished? Possible reasons I can think of:
1. Builder is going under
2. Builder is frightened the market is turning and wants out before any further investment
3. Original buyer bailed for whatever reason, perhaps worried market is turning on a flip.

On a different note regarding “no foreign ownership issue here” topic, check out the comments page of the realtor’s website including where his client is from, not a lot of lower mainlanders:

http://gloryhomes.ca/testimonials.php?lang=en

16 our of 19 testimonials are from offshore buyers for those who don’t want to see for themselves

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patriotz

According to the first two Chinese language testimonials I translated, the buyers are immigrants (including “William from Beijing” who immigrated in 2006). Anyone with the time to translate them all is welcome to make a tally.

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YLTNboomerang

By immigrated you mean came over, bought a house, then went back to China to earn an income right? She signed it Cindy（from Guangzhou）not Cindy (from Vancouver).

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would-be-buyer

Sam Cooper is the best news reporter we have in Vancouver: http://www.theprovince.com/government+planning+study+impact+foreign+home+ownership/11687722/story.html

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patriotz

I’ve heard something like that before – from Harper during the election.

The provincial government will pay for an external study

I wonder who will be doing that.
The provincial government is committed to using all possible means to keep RE prices high. Whatever this “external study” comes back with, that will not change.

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Whistler or Bust?

Ho Hum –
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/officials-concerned-homebuyers-unaware-of-real-estate-risks/article28471686/

Interesting shout out to Vancouver Condo Info in the article but the link goes to a different site.

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patriotz

This is apparently a US website that is inserting contact info for local realtors, in this case Sutton Group. Topics such as PMI indicate US origin. Google the first paragraph and you will see similar websites.

I think the reporter simply made a mistake.

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Dinnertime

Bula reads this site, so it’s most likely an editor ‘corrected’ it to add the dot com.

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vangrl

ya I posted the comment in October, she obviously read it. I also took a crap load of screenshots from Julia’s page. Crazy they are saying she was never an employee. She had posts saying she was VP of the company.

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UBC in Crisis Mode

“Among the commercial sales that have raised eyebrows is the Molson brewery site in Kitsilano, assessed at $43.7-million. But a source confirmed to The Globe and Mail it has sold for $190-million.”
Sun Commercial is crazy to think they can make money buying this site. Scam has to be involved.

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southseacompany

“Canada’s Real Estate Problem: Canada’s Real Estate Problem
Relying on a frothy real estate market.”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/canada-s-one-legged-stool-economy

“The Canadian economy was largely stagnant through the first 11 months of last year, shrinking by 0.09 percent. In light of the collapse in oil prices, however, things could have been worse. But the relative resilience of headline growth belies the extent to which the economy is now being supported by one sector: real estate.”

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Yunak

The future is anything but bright for the city of Vancouver with all these capable and smart business people, their connections and wealth from offshore base. No wonder why they call it the best place on earth…

https://www.baytoday.ca/business/bc-residents-accused-of-60-million-fraud-involving-company-with-no-employees-191430

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paulb

New
151
Sold
140

TI:7441

For weekly sales and/or new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhod and market segment can be quite different.

Cheers!

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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would-be-buyer

@ilovecharts I am with you as well. I am debating buying something this year, but haven’t decided where. I have waited for 6 years for this market to correct and in the interim prices have only skyrocketed. I don’t know what will stop this market. I am a professional making mid 6 figures and I am priced out. I don’t have $300K to put down on an average east Vancouver house. I am only able to save from my INCOME, while paying rent and daycare etc. My family and friends have made six figures just owning homes and have (by all accounts) very affluent lifestyles: expensive cars, vacations and renos. This market is fucked beyond belief. I can’t leave Vancouver, because my head office is here. I may buy on the Island or Interior and hope to retire there. Who… Read more »

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bestplaceonearth

are you serious, or you just want to poke the bears?

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GreenSalad

This Charming All Brick Tudor Has A Formal Dining Rm, Formal Lr W/ Fpl, Eat-In-Kitchen. 4 Bdrms, 3 Baths, Wood Floors, Full Finished Bsmt W/ Spring Kitchen, Family Room, Laundry Rm. Close To Transportation And Shopping.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4682-188th-St_Flushing_NY_11358_M45605-39045

What less than a Mil will buy you in NY…..true our $ has fallen but wasn’t that long ago we were at par…..I personally think we are seriously hooped here…..In my opinion, if I had Chinese mainlander type cash, I know where I’d be shopping…..

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Shut It Down Already

Why do you have to buy a SFH as your first property? Most people buying those have the large downpayment required because they’ve built equity on a smaller place first.

Always makes me laugh when the Bears here conclude locals can’t afford houses because they’re assuming that every market participant is a first time buyer, or that SFH is the only property type.

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Guest

Trading up hasn’t worked in the past few years if you started off buying a local condo. At best you trade off a longer commute for bigger space and more debt. Of course, trading up from a New York or Chinese property is a different story thanks to our sinking loonie.

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crabman

Why should he be able to buy an SFH? Because he makes “mid six figures” you dipshit. Show me one other mid-sized city where that’s the case.

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Whistler or Bust?

Beat it troll.

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Shut It Down Already

Sound counter-argument. Well played.

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ILoveCharts

Two questions for you guys:

1) After waiting for years, I’m thinking of giving up and buying a house in Squamish. Horrible decision or are is that far enough from Vancouver to be sane?

2) I’m sitting on some USD that I want to put into CAD. Some chores got in the way of me doing it last week and then it had an amazing rally this week. Hold out long or do it now?

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Whistler or Bust?

1. Hard to go wrong with Squamish if you are buying because you like the outdoors. I think there is some upside there especially if the new mountain gets approved.
2. Do what everyone isn’t doing. 11/10 currency forecasters say the C$ is going to $0.65 or lower. When everyone agrees, everyone is wrong.

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bestplaceonearth

you ask the very people who missed the run-up for 10 years for housing idea?

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crabman

Do you really want to live in Squamish? If not, keep renting. If you can, leave the lower mainland altogether.

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would-be-buyer

I am super curious why house prices continue to rise here while starting to fall in other favourite HAM locations. Thoughts? http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1907067/hong-kong-sees-spurt-negative-equity-home-owners-property?utm_source=edm&utm_medium=edm&utm_content=20160130&utm_campaign=scmp_today

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Guest

Hong Kong is tied to US monetary policy so financial conditions are getting tighter. In Vancouver, we are tied to the Bank of Canada which is determined to follow the ECB and BoJ it seems into negative interest rates. That said, household formation in China has peaked so that could be a medium term headwind for both Hong Kong and Vancouver.

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Yunak

This is why here is different, and Vancouver doesn’t have such problem of prices going down. “Aafordability???” (what is that?) and instead of first-time local homebuyers Vancouver has infinite supply of of the foreign-first-time homebuyers and also suficient supply of all-other-second-third-fourth…fifteenth-time homebuyers either local or foreign therefore can run this shit forever…

“There are two things needed for home prices to go higher: there must be demand from buyers (especially first-time homebuyers) and homes must be affordable for consumers. As it stands, both of these factors are working against the housing market and housing prices.

http://www.profitconfidential.com/economy/housing-market-why-home-prices-will-fall-in-2016/?google_editors_picks=true

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bestplaceonearth

this kind of info is dime a hundred. your time is better spent watching peter russell.

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VanRant

For the Beijing politburo, halting capital outflows is becoming a matter of life or death, because there are only so many liquid reserves China can liquidate before it enters dangerous territory; worse, the less the reserves, the greater the desire will be on behalf of the local population to take their money and run. Of course, China’s rabid defense of further capital outflows means that its original intent, to devalue the Yuan to a degree that boosts its economy via exports, has been put on hiatus, or in other words China is trapped, and instead of an external rebalancing it is forced to boost its economy in the one way it knows best: by issuing ever more debt. However, with China’s total debt now estimated at 350% of GDP, it only has a finite amount of time before the debt… Read more »

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

i’ve spoke about the phenomenon of mainland chinese and how they enjoy hunting and the outdoors, much more than previous waves of chinese immigrants. here is another example (guy in the story isn’t a poacher). once again, i’m ahead of the curve. On the poacher patrol: In search of Metro Vancouver’s illegal urban hunters Language can sometimes be an issue. “There’s a change in the profile of the hunters, more diversity, and urban people who are interested in harvesting wild animals for healthy reasons,” Gravel explains. The officers check a hunter launching his aluminum boat — decked in camouflage colours, right down to the outboard motor — at Wellington Point Park on River Road near Ladner. Businessman David Ou of Vancouver apologizes for his poor English but says he manufactures blue jeans in Guangzhou (Canton), China, and enjoys hunting, staying… Read more »

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Yunak

This is positive and progressive cultural advancement in the city. We all must have to get used to it and reduce unnecessary policing and sanctioning those progressive and valuable habits and customs. For example that man at pool who confronted those nice people who were spitting wherever they could. “After witnessing people brazenly flouting the rules, Clackson said he confronted a pair of men and asked them to stop their unsanitary behavior. “They got really confrontational and thought they were being picked on,” Clackson told the News. “One guy said, ‘I’ve got a cold, that’s why I’m spitting it up.’” What was he thinking? Instead of encouraging them to spit even more and help community to further increase the value of land and property in the city he is making them possibly to feel unconformable, not right and not acceptable.… Read more »

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joe

I recently witness a mainland chinese letting his child pee on the side of the pool and the lifeguard is not doing anything about it. It could have been worst for them to pee in the pool. That’s why I am not swimming in pools with a lot of mainland chinese.

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space889

Maybe they should add hunting team BPOM to the list…that’s a more fun, challenging, and fulfilling hunting than shooting a bunch of ducks who can’t even recognize that they are being hunted and shot at.

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