Let’s confuse the public.

Frances Bula has some comments about a recent proposal to tax vacant properties, pointing out the bizarre lack of logic in most arguments against:

… Real-estate marketer Bob Rennie said it would kill foreign investment in everything, since it would inevitably lead to a tax on foreign investment in manufacturing or other sectors. (Never heard of that in other jurisdictions with housing taxes.)

The mystery documents from the finance ministry surfaced again, claiming it would kill off $1 billion and 4,000 jobs related to construction. (Puzzling claim, since this surtax wouldn’t affect, say, foreign investors who are putting capital into major construction projects.)

And Premier Christy Clark claimed again that somehow this could end up targeting seniors who spend part of the year in the hospital or vacationers. Yet the proposal clearly stated that people who do or have contributed to the local economy (in other words, people collecting pensions) would be exempt.

Read the full comment here and Bulas’ article in the Globe and Mail here.

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Cat in the hat
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Cat in the hat

#52

yesss, all the nouveau Swedish furnishings for the connoisseur in you to enjoy.

How about that?

Doomcouver
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Doomcouver

@50
Wow what a deal, $3500 to live in someone’s really nice garage.

Dave
Member
Patriotz 42, I don’t agree with you. It’s basic supply and demand economics. You’re going against well understood and proven economic fundamentals. If the City gave developers extra density for free, they will obviously take it and build. If every developer was given that, it would result in more supply. More supply = lower prices. And I know exactly what your brain is thinking at this point… you’re thinking developers will just sell at the market rate so it’s giving them free money. But again, that’s ignoring how supply curves work in economics. When you increase supply, it shifts and the equilibrium price drops. Sure, if you gave 1 developer some extra density it will have little effect because on the net it only marginally increases supply. The points you are making in support of your position don’t refute me.… Read more »
Cat in the hat
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Cat in the hat

But you can get $3500 per month, all money back in 3yrs.

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/nvn/apa/5387564950.html

space889
Member
space889

@patriotz- Maybe gov’t fee isn’t 100% of the cause of the problem, but I don’t think it’s wrong to point just how high they have gotten. As well, I don’t think anyone can argue that hig, excessive, and expensive ideological driven regulations & fees are good for efficient markets.

Just look at laneway housing. It costs $150K+ to build one of those things. $150K of which at least 1/3 goes to various gov’t agencies and the city. I think there is something wrong there. Especially when many 1500 sq ft houses + land in many parts of the US sell for that much.

space889
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space889

@Many Franks – really? A local born & breed taxi driver? Really? Sounds made up to me.

Cat in the hat
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Cat in the hat
w
Guest
w

“It’s not just about Vancouver;”

You’re right. Money is fleeing Russia, Saudi Arabia, and probably many other parts of the world. It’s just that Chinese money likes to come here because Vancouver is culturally a Chinese city.

Many Franks
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Active Member
Rona Ambrose says the Federal Conservative heart bleeds for us. Time for feds to address high real estate prices: Rona Ambrose Interim federal Conservative leader Rona Ambrose said Wednesday it may be time for government to look at measures to address the high prices in Canadian real estate markets such as Vancouver. Ambrose, speaking at a Vancouver Board of Trade meeting, noted a conversation during her visit to the city that illustrated the seriousness of the situation. “I was talking to a cab driver here, asking him how does he feel about (the fact) that a $1.5-million home is a cheap home here, apparently,” Ambrose said at the meeting. “And he said, ‘I will never get to live in Vancouver. I will never be able to live in the city I was born in.’ And I thought, that’s really sad… Read more »
southseacompany
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southseacompany

It’s not just about Vancouver;

“UK house prices to crash as global asset prices unravel”, The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/12087971/UK-house-price-to-crash-as-global-asset-prices-unravel.html

“Asset prices around the world soared as central bankers embarked on the greatest money printing experiment in history. While much of that money flowed into the stock market, a great deal also found its way into house prices. What we are now witnessing on trading screens around the world is the unwinding of the era of monetary excess, and house prices will not escape the fallout.”

w
Guest
w

Is patriotz finally admitting that HAM is real? Wow. But it’s government policy that encourages HAM right patriotz? Nice word play to dove tail your new opinion on HAM with your tired old theories.

Well crafted and very slick pivot, patriotz. I doubt anyone will notice how you’ve been so wrong for so long on HAM.

patriotz
Member
What I have always disagreed with Dave about is his claim that the high prices in Vancouver are the result of city regulations and development fees restricting new supply. First of all the evidence is that the growth in dwelling units is outpacing population. Second there is no correlation between price trends and regulations or development fees. The great global RE bubble starting circa 2002 was not accompanied by increased regulations or fees, nor was any bust or downturn (including the 2008/9 downturn in Vancouver) accompanied by reduced regulations or fees. What accompanied the renewed upturn in Vancouver RE in 2009? You know what. The bubble in Vancouver, like everywhere else, is the result of government policies that encourage speculation and underutilization in RE by both locals and offshore buyers. These policies include easy credit, government mortgage insurance, property tax… Read more »
southseacompany
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southseacompany

“Canadians’ household debt climbs to highest in G7 in world-beating borrowing spree”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns

“High levels of household debt have increased as a result of near-record low interest rates, which have come in response to the Bank of Canada’s cuts to its trendsetting lending level coming out of the 2008-09 recession in an effort to spur economic growth.”

“This has also stoked a hot housing market, along with concerns that many Canadians could be getting in over their heads with cheap mortgages and face a financial crisis if the residential market begins to fall or when interest rates starts rising again.”

“The new study comes amid growing concerns that Canada’s record-high housing market — particularly in Vancouver and Toronto — could experience a major correction if the economy slows or, more seriously, heads back into recession.”

Hçistory
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Hçistory

BNP Paribas Expects Home Prices to Fall 10% in 2016, Rise 3% in 2017; Weak Developers Provide Buying Chances

“BNP Paribas, in its report, said the recent weak developers’ prices provide good buying opportunities. It considered HK liquidity is sufficient and interbanks’ interest rates are maintained at a very low level. The total balances of HK banking system amounted to about $370 billion, still far higher than about $150 billion in 2011. ”

“It expected the housing prices to drop 10% this year and edge up 3% next year. Its top picks are CK PROPERTY, SHK PPT (00016.HK) and SINO LAND, with target prices of $71, $142.7 and $14.5 respectively as it was bullish on the stable gearing ratio of the three developers and expected SINO LAND to record net cash this year. “

Hçistory
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Hçistory
Citi Expects 2016 Home Prices to Edge Down; No Crisis in Property Market “Ken Peng, director and investment strategist of Citi Private Bank, said during a press conference that HK property market will not face any crisis as current housing demand is strong and supply has not upsurged so far. Nevertheless, he expected home prices to drop slightly this year under the global challenging economic environment. “The bank forecast the short-term interest rate of the U.S. to increase to 1% at the year end from 0.25% currently and rise to 1.25% in the second quarter next year. Ken Peng said the recent three-month HKD interbank interest rates have grown over 30 basis points, yet he believed property market will not face similar colossal crisis as before as mortgage rates have not been adjusted and Monetary Authority (MA) acquires strong measures… Read more »
Dave
Member

Too much dirt on me to be a politician. Ironically, I’d still be the most honest guy.

Most politicians are scumbags in my experience. They’re not likeable people to me. I think it’s probably one of the dumbest professions. I don’t know why we keep picking these people who just run for office their whole life. Get a real job dummy. I have no problem with a successful person wanting to give back for a term or whatever, but these dorks we pick… I used to feel strongly about voting for the usual reasons you hear. I now think the people who don’t vote have it right.

Dave 2016 Electoral Campaign
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Dave 2016 Electoral Campaign

Vote for Dave!!

Dave
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Ostrich, correct, I sold and now rent in Vancouver. I am still invested in other real estate markets though. We all have biases. No doubt I have my own. I work on my biases though. I meditate and that helps me see the truth in things. Buddha put truth up there in one of the things you should seek. Good advice in my mind. Does the tail wag the dog, or do I follow what I think is right? I’d suggest the later. Most people’s thoughts are informed by what is most convenient to them and their ego. Me, less so. So my opinions and beliefs come before my actions, not after. I told you how I thought 2008 would play out. I called the top, the magnitude of the correction and the turnaround. I was right that the market… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

@Doomcouver – Aren’t they constructing a big strip mall with Walmart on Garden City & Landsdowne or somewhere near there?

And I seriously doubt Landsdown Mall will be completely removed. It will most likely be what the Brentwood Mall has done. Lots of new condo towers but still a mall on the ground level connecting all those towers, with a couple mid-rise office towers and maybe parking ltos thrown in.

I bet there would at least be a much expanded restaurants & food court spaces. We Chinese loves food and eating out.

space889
Member
space889
@crabman – Doesn’t the bears claim that condo & TH price have went nowhere in the last 5 years? And most were predicting big drops in prices for all kinds of RE, and can’t wait for the bloodshed and revel in the delight of ripped apart families, ruined financial lives, people being thrown out on the street with nothing but huge debts, etc, etc, etc….All for the crime of just wanting to buy a place of their own like their parents and willing to sacrifice and pay the huge cost. Ok, well, also for driving up prices and squeezing out the bears who want the same places on the cheap. Compared to bears, Dave is more right than wrong by a big margin on that one prediction from 5 years back. And remember, people are allowed to change their prediction… Read more »
space889
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space889

@Ulsterman – Agree with what you said 100%, except the part about the worst culprits having left.

ostritch
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ostritch

Dave,

Aren’t you suffering from some personal bias? Didn’t you sell property recently thinking it was the top?

Hçistory
Guest
Hçistory
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.714231/3 “the decrease in M2 supply should pose more downward pressure to Hong Kong home prices, said UBS in a report. Historical track record shows that there is a strong correlation between HKD M2 supply and residential home prices. Weak RMB could trigger liquidity outflow, especially for the stock market. The home prices of Hong Kong has been surging since 2008 and the reversal of such liquidity flow is likely to accelerate the decline of property prices. “The research house believed that strong HKD and a slower China economic growth will lead to weaker inflation, higher unemployment and slower growth. The increase in real rates should place further downward pressure of home prices. After the 8% residential price decline since September 2005, it is anticipated that the macro headwinds will push home prices to fall another 20-25% till end 2017.… Read more »
crabman
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crabman

Delusional Dave still thinks he was right about the market. In 2010, he said “prices will be flat for a number of years”.

http://vancouvercondo.info/2010/03/hot-markets-in-bc.html#comment-65677

Hçistory
Guest
Hçistory
Bank of America: Derivative Triggers Might Annihilate the Hang Seng, Very Soon “This is a research note that was circulating today–that I didn’t get around to discussing–due to the face ripping market I was enjoying throughout the day. “The banks sold their clients structured products (God I hate that phrase) that gave them exposure to Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, aka “H-shares.” If you recall, everyone was sucking the skin off China’s knee caps just 1 year ago. Boy have circumstances changed. “Apparently, there is a “knock-in” feature that triggers if the H-shares fall below 8,000, with a notional value of $13.6 billion and another $16.8 billion between 6,000-7,000. “Banks have purchased futures on the gauge of so-called H shares to hedge exposure to structured products that they’ve sold to clients, according to Chan. Many of those products have… Read more »