What would be the ideal housing economy?

What’s ‘fair’ when it comes to housing?

Should you be able to purchase a home in the town where you were born using only income from an average local job? Or would efforts to bring a level of equality to the buying side unfairly take gains from those wise or lucky enough to have bought at the right time in the right place?

A recent report from San Francisco says that the average millennial can only afford 135 square feet of housing, the lowest buying power in the country.

We’re assuming numbers for Vancouver wouldn’t be a whole lot more hopeful for millennials wanting to buy a home.

But these are numbers for San Francisco and Vancouver – there are a huge number of cities in the world that have better options for most any subjective criteria you could name: culture, food, climate, etc.

If you’re priced out, what’s so horrible about moving and exploring new options?

In the first world, we’ve had the right conditions for a rising housing market for more than a decade now – prices have gone up all over, in some place more than others.

Is this ‘fair’ to those left out, who didn’t have the ability at the right time to buy?

On the flip side is it fair to those who stretched and saved every dime to purchase a home to have people wishing for it’s value to drop?

If you were king of the universe and could control the market what would be the best case scenario not just for you, but for society and the economy as a whole?

 

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crabman
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crabman

@173 – You have to be logged-in to vote now, thanks to spacefuck.

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[…] that time of the year again –The ideal housing economy –China stocks down, prices up? –Taxes might limit house profits –Expect mortgage […]

Jimmy
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Jimmy

Danielle Park has been wrong about everything for many years now, at least she’s much nicer to look at than Garth Turner.

David Lee
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David Lee

Take a listen to Danielle Park on Howe Street tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06zYUcV919k

Everything she says in this interview makes sense and the way she explains it (i.e. balanced, reasoned arguments) makes it all seem like common sense.

Listen to what she has to say about RE in YVR and YYZ (I won’t spoil it for you). The whole interview is definitely worth listening to several times.

Her last line in the interview is the best:

“I love it when truth comes out because then you’re actually dealing with math and things you can make some reasonable judgements about”.

Hçistory
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Hçistory

“Deutsche Bank, in its report, stated that Hong Kong’s home prices as well as rental costs declined significantly in the past four months. In the broker’s opinion, this is a strong signal for the property market to start a downtrend because the rental market can better reflect the real demand and affordability.

“Based on the experience, the down cycle can last at least 36 to 48 months. If the affordability ratio falls from the current level of 73% to 50%, home prices may fall 32%, which implies another 8% drop at least in 2016. In addition, the United States may increase rates again this year, the decline may…

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.711999/1

… even reach 10%. “

Yunak
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Yunak

@170

Those analyses about Vancouver and China are amazing. They sound like village pimps, close to the battlefield in the middle of the war, discussing outcome of the fights and predicting business performance of the local brothel depending on which army win the fight and enter the village. How pathetic is this, China farts and Vancouver is shaking…

vangrl
Member
vangrl

hey how come I can’t vote?

Ulsterman
Member

Patriotz: “I just can’t see how owning something that is the norm for most people should be a disqualification for public office.”

I don’t think he’s saying that you should be disqualified. It’s more an observation that when the power brokers are also the same people who will lose from policies that correct housing prices, it’s very hard to get them the “understand” why these are good policies.

Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already

Yunak, have you totally lost the plot? It would appear so.

Shout it out
Guest
Shout it out

Sorry wrong link this is the link. When their market goes up, we are told they will cash out and move into real assets in money laundering jurisdictions like ours and when it goes down we are told the same!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/china+market+turmoil+likely+have+impact+real+estate+economists/11637481/story.html

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer
GreenSalad
Guest
GreenSalad

Chinese CSI 300 back down near where it was about a year ago after what some may opine as mid year “exuberance”. Crash or just a return to normal? Lots of ink being spilled on dramatic headlines though……

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000300.SS+Interactive#{“allowChartStacking”:true}

Hçistory
Guest
Hçistory

“Promised Liberal spending will help economy more than monetary policy: Poloz”

where does Gambler Immigrant Program fit into this sentence?

paulb
Member

New
138
Sold
56
TI:6507

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Shout it out
Guest
Shout it out
Yunak
Guest
Yunak

@163

Better ask your HQ in Beijing, they will certainly know.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

angie = vangrl?

angie
Guest
angie
China suspends forex business for some foreign banks – sources Wed Dec 30, 2015 “The latest move comes just three months after the PBOC ordered banks to closely scrutinize clients’ foreign exchange transactions to prevent illicit cross-border currency arbitrage between the offshore and onshore yuan. The sources said the banks might have been targeted due to the large scale of their cross-border forex businesses.” http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-currency-banks-idUSKBN0UD08D20151230 China’s central bank has suspended at least three foreign banks from conducting some foreign exchange business until the end of March, three sources who had seen the suspension notices told Reuters on Wednesday. Included among the suspended services are liquidation of spot positions for clients and some other activities related to cross-border, onshore and offshore businesses, the sources said. The sources, speaking on condition that the banks were not named, said the notices sent to… Read more »
Dave
Member

160, I agree… it’s not collusion. But, it’s not the bond market because bond rates have been falling recently. The banks are increasing their spread.

I’m just joking that the conspiracy types are going to start proclaiming collusion the same way people do with gasoline.

Steve, Janet, Mark & Mario
Guest
Steve, Janet, Mark & Mario

@#159 There is no magical collusion. It’s called the bond market. That’s where the banks sell and buy their debt.

If you owned a shop and buy things wholesale and sell them retail, and the wholesale price goes up, you’ll be trying to pass that on to your customers along with all other retailers. No collusion necessary.

Dave
Member

I got an email today saying a few banks increased their 5 year fixed rates by 0.1% today. Somebody in the thread earlier said RBC, but it’s other banks too. They all magically reached the same conclusion to raise rates by 0.1% at the exact same time. I don’t believe in collusion, but all those people with 5 year mortgages are going to start thinking that over the next few years as their servicing costs go up.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
@ #156 the vast majority of china’s many hundreds of billionaires (with a B) all hit the jackpot on real estate after starting out with seemingly very little. you should watch True Detective season 2. @ #157 i only need to look at 6 month chart of shanghai index. if you think this was a controlled demolition then you’re a bigger moron than i previously thought. i bet you there are 100’s of enron’s (which are worth ZERO) littering the chinese exchanges. the powers that be can look the other way, halt them, talk the market up, arrest people or whatever new tricks they can think of. doesnt matter. the chinese public and the rest of the world have figured out that the gig is up. the govt will likely try something bold tonight because they have no choice but… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

Look at the long term chart of Shanghai Index, it dropped from a high of over 5000 to a low of ~2500, until very recently, a drop of 50% and the central gov’t let it drop. The only difference is that central gov’t prefer a slowly controlled drop instead of a big crash as a controlled steady drop allows negative effects to be more easily controlled/offset. Stock market dropping 50% over 6 years is going to do way less damage than a 1 yr 50% drop.

But regardless, China is way way way overdue for an economic crash or at least a recession, and frankly a good cleansing recession is needed.

space889
Member
space889

@bullwhip29 – Right, just like all those Internet millionaires & billionaires during the dotcom boom time and even the recent booms created low interest rate.

Seriously, it’s possible to go from 0 to millions in Western countries through entrepreneurship in less than a decade, but in a big country like China, that’s just impossible without cheating??!! Geez…biased much?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Poloz – out of ammo?

“Promised Liberal spending will help economy more than monetary policy: Poloz”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/try-it-now/?articleId=28050437