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Friday Free-for-all – February 5th 2016

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It’s that time of the week again…

Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Economic ghost town
–Last chance to buy
–First chance to Rolex
–The inevitable drop?
–The infinite job machine
–

So what are you seeing out there? Been to any open houses lately? Thinking about buying or moving away? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
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B.C. budget to address Vancouver’s hot real estate market

Mr. de Jong has already said he is looking at overhauling the property-transfer tax. The province is likely to raise the threshold for tax exemptions – and pay for the change by adding a new, higher tax rate for the most expensive houses.

This is a measure to support higher prices. Those buying luxury (i.e. multimillion $) properties are insensitive to higher PTT, while reducing PTT for houses in the million dollar range makes it possible for the locals who support this market to pay more.

It’s clear that the government’s goals are to maintain prices and maintain profits for the RE industry.

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Polozi Scheme
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https://bchn.com/city-officials-worried-global-attention-spawning-a-movement-against-inequality-and-money-laundering/

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southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Who’s to blame for Portland’s soaring home prices?”, CNN

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/05/pf/oregon-unaffordable-california/

“Portland home prices jumped 11.1% between November 2014 and 2015 — the biggest increase in the country.”

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patriotz
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“The median home price in Portland is now $345,500.”

Still the cheapest big city on the West Coast by a long shot. Cheaper than Victoria, which is nowhere near as big, too.

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2 years 2 months ago
Bird
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345 USD is approx $480k CAD.

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southseacompany
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“Fed’s Mester: ‘Gradual’ rate hikes to continue”, CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/feds-mester-gradual-rate-hikes-to-continue.html

“Volatility in financial markets as well as deflationary pressures from the plunge in energy prices shouldn’t keep the U.S. central bank from raising rates, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday.”

“she said market participants still should expect the Fed to continue on a tightening path, albeit a slow one.”

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southseacompany
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“Fed’s George sees more rate hikes coming despite market swings”, Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-george-idUSKCN0VB24F

“George added that she thought the Fed got a “late start” when it raised rates by a quarter percentage point in December after leaving them near zero for seven years. She did not say how many increases she thinks are warranted this year but said she backed a “gradual” path of hikes.”

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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Happy Chinese new year long weekend everyone!

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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It’s the year of the monkey, you know what that means?

Shit’s gonna fly.

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bestplaceonearth
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to whose faces? you are smart, you can figure that out!

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Krusty’s face would be my ideal target.

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Osnabrück
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You are lucky bastard being let to enter and settle in Canada and now flexing muscles online, stinky piece of shit.

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Osnabrück
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This was for bestplaceonearth or whetewer POS is called.

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bestplaceonearth
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another angry one just joined in. aren’t we all “lucky bastard” in this best place on earth since the slice of bread, but nothing will ever satisfy some of us, and whining we keep doing!

“stinky POS” – i thought POS is all stinky. dont believe me, try to smell some.

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southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“London’s Suburban Real Estate Prices Are Skyrocketing”, The Atlantic

http://www.citylab.com/housing/2016/02/map-london-suburb-real-estate/459717/

“But in Central London, home values might have hit their peak.”

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southseacompany
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“Australia city home prices rebound in Jan, Melbourne hot”, Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-economy-houseprices-idUSL3N15F0FW

“Australian home prices rebounded in January with Melbourne boasting especially strong growth, a counter to speculation the market was at risk of crashing after a rapid run up last year.”

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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Citi: World economy trapped in ‘death spiral’

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/citi-world-economy-trapped-in-death-spiral.html

what do you guys think policy maker’s response will be?

things in china look really bad. what did they do the last time their economy was at risk? you have to think at least one move ahead bears.

bears play checkers bulls play chess.

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Confucius
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So you’re thinking one move ahead? The world economy continues to deteriorate despite historical low interest rates, negative rates and QE. Assets are being proped up with barely any wage gains. Think a couple more moves ahead checker boy. Better sell, easy come easy go.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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yes, you’ve described the status quo. but don’t just stop there!

now, in order to think ahead you need to ask yourself how will people and governments respond to the status quo. then you position yourself to take advantage of their moves.

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Confucius
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They’re desperately fighting the forces of deflation. Rather than creating sustainable growth, they are creating monster asset bubbles. Many of those bubbles are already popping such as the stock markets. Just wait and see what happens to all these large mortgage holders when unemployment goes up . Do you think the banks have your back? They’re just boosting their profits and riding into the sunset with their riches, they could care less what happens to you. When in history has the herd rode into the sunset with their gains? It never happens, you are sheep, checkmate.

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southseacompany
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Reminds me of this article from a couple of years ago;

“Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/upshot/welcome-to-the-everything-boom-or-maybe-the-everything-bubble.html

“Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards. The phenomenon is rooted in two interrelated forces. Worldwide, more money is piling into savings than businesses believe they can use to make productive investments. At the same time, the world’s major central banks have been on a six-year campaign of holding down interest rates and creating more money from thin air to try to stimulate stronger growth in the wake of the financial crisis.”

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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canada avoided unemployment in the great depression? how did it do that? if it worked before, do you think the government will try the same thing again? the lesson learned from the great depression is don’t wait; stimulate and print at the first sign of trouble. moral hazard be dammed. that’s why the US did better than europe. it was like a controlled experiment. one test subject stimulated and printed (a little late though) and the other instituted austerity. everyone learned the lesson. does this mean that this is the ideal or moral or correct? no and it doesn’t matter. we aren’t making decisions, no one cares what we think. so you bet on what’s going to happen, you make your money and you ride off into the sunset with your riches. negative rates were only talked about, now for… Read more »
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Confucius
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US did better, but still in a death spiral, like in your link? I think you mean GFC, not great depression. There’s enough information out there showing that Canadians are living on the edge and aren’t prepared for an economic shock. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but when it comes these huge gains will be vaporized. I’m just trying to help you out by crystallizing your gains. The boomers that sold are smart and will have a good retirement the ones that don’t will see their gains vaporized.

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Shut It Down Already
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US is in a death spiral? LOL.

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Bulls play with themselves.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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DON’T SHAME ME!

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NDgwWDY0MA==/z/lSsAAOSwDk5Txp1M/$_1.JPG

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WTF
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Not sure how typical for Vancouver but there are at least 8-10 younger (<30 years) employees at my work looking or have recent bought condos in the $500 to $750 range. Quite a few have been in multiple offer situations.

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Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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The Chinese made them do it?

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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millennials have completely bought into the high-density, live downtown or in a town center life style.

they tell them selves that they are making life-style choices. really, they are just poor and priced out.

at least it makes tinder hook-ups easier.

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Confucius
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Wow, hope you don’t sell, you sound like such a douche.

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space889
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Portland’s population density: 4,375.1/sq mi (1,689.2/km2)
Vancouver’s population density: 13,590/sq mi (5,249/km2 )

City & Metro Area:
Portland:
• City – 145 sq mi (376 km2)
• Land – 133 sq mi (346 km2)
• Water – 12 sq mi (30 km2)

Vancouver:
• City – 44.39 sq mi (114.97 km2)

Source: Wikipedia

So Vancouver’s population density is 3x+ as much as Portland, and less than 1/3 the size, and you believe Vancouver should have the same price as Portland? Especially on SFH which uses the most amount of land per dwelling???

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david
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No money laundering. Local government there frowns on it.

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Bird
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What strange version of wikipedia are you viewing that compares Portland Metro to the City of Vancouver? Why not compare the two metro areas?

Vancouver Regional District has a population density of 2,218/sq mi according to wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Vancouver

Portland Metro has a population density of 4,375.1/sq mi:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon#Geography

So the actual facts are kinda the opposite of what you were trying to say?

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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Chinese New Year Celebrated in Three Charts

Yes, it’s the Lunar New Year, and cities from Shanghai to Singapore to Vancouver are preparing to usher in the Year of the Monkey.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/chinese-new-year-in-charts-pollution-spikes-bak-kwa-prices-jump-and-tourists-disappear

bloomberg agress with me, vancouver is in the sinosphere.

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Chabar
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Yes it is and that’s why Krusty will get reelected and stay in power until retirement. After that probably spaceshit or Victor Wong will become premier.

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Vanco
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If you look at the recent sales, properties are going for 15-20% over asking! And this is after the run up last year. This won’t make the Bears happy.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
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bears don’t like numbers. they like to trust their gut lol!

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Reasonfirst
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My 94 year dad is selling in Richmond after 60 years somewhere in the 1.2 to 1.3 range for a teardown. – I am a happy bear.

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Brian Ripley
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Average SFD prices in Vancouver have been rising at 1.2% per month since the last major low in January 2013.

My “Double Double” chart http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html#Double

…has average SFD prices in Vancouver hitting another double in April 2016 since the last one at April 2008.

This is a huge bet on housing price inflation that is counter to actual deflation going on in the commodity sector.

One side of this equation needs correcting…. or both.

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UBC in Crisis Mode
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Time to buy condos if you can borrow from the bank at still pretty low interest rate.
No one can afford houses in Vancouver (even doctors/lawyers), condo price will go up.

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tedeastside
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dont know about the west side but most east side houses going well below asking

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2 years 2 months ago
joe
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China’s crackdown on dissent goes global.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/asia/china-dissident-crackdown-goes-global/
Doesn’t look good for Michael Ching Mo Yeung.

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2 years 2 months ago
Chabar
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He is Prominent Vancouver developer, if needed either Bob Rennie or Kristy will hide him in their closets or bathrooms.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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Just like Anne Frank. Except it’s a despised, money laundering chinese scumbag, but other than that, just like Anne Frank.

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2 years 2 months ago
Oracle
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Vancouver is seeing the greatest Boom in is real estate history right now. Almost every house going for over asking.

The flood of international students who get PR via the Canadian Experinec class are to blame. No need for immigrant investor visa anymore. Send son or daughter.,,,pay 2 years tuition to private school…apply experience class…sponsor family and grandparents…launder money by buying house…leave empty until family comes.

The marriage changes are gonna cause a huge spike in prices. Watch and see. And Christy wants more immigration.

Unless you guys become proactive about the situation, your kids are gonna become the slave class of Vancouver.

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2 years 2 months ago
Yunak
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I don’t think so, if you scenario pans out there will be a civil car in the mean time to take care of situation.

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Yunak
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lol, meant to say civil war

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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No need for violence, we can just refurbish some old internment camps.

This time they’ll actually be justified.

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2 years 2 months ago
paulb
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New
245
Sold
116
TI:7663

For weekly sales and/or new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhod and market segment can be quite different.

Cheers!

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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2 years 2 months ago
Freddy
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Local entrepreneur Saied Fard writes about the destruction of Vancouver. A beautifully written piece which we should send to all our friends, contacts and politicians!

http://saeidfard.com/post/113616107456/the-decline-of-vancouver

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2 years 2 months ago
Freddy
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An excerpt from the piece

And then you have real estate agents and lawyers with no understanding of economics claiming that the influx of foreigners and property price boom is good for an economy. Real estate, unlike other forms of capital investment, is not productive – in that other than actually building a structure, it does not produce ongoing economic good the way a factory does. And yet journalists continue to reference the uninformed opinions of these “experts” and contribute to a nice echo chamber of convenient but completely baseless conjecture.

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2 years 2 months ago
Many Franks
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Another day, another big expose in the media.

The real estate technique fuelling Vancouver’s housing market

There’s too much good stuff there to pull just a single quote. Go read it.

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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“It’s obscene,” Ms. Rappaport said. “I had no idea our house was going to be resold. We were shocked when it was flipped.”

Shocked, shocked that someone else would want to make money on the house besides them. If you don’t want someone flipping the house, don’t sell it. Once you’ve accepted an offer it’s not yours any more.

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2 years 2 months ago
Liarsstrike
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I am shocked that insiders can flip assignment contracts on the underlying property transfer-tax free. System appears broken.

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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PTT is set up to tax changes of title.

However the entire gain of the assignment is taxable as business income. That’s also the case for assignments of pre-sales.

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2 years 2 months ago
Liarsstrike
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So its okay if a business property owner has to pay PTT and income tax, but a real estate insider avoids the PTT?

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2 years 2 months ago
Charlie
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As usual patriots you focus on the least important part of the article. Trivial nitpicking and point scoring. Why?

Lets deal with the real issue, we are being screwed by political denial and deception. ‘Experts’ like on this very site. and politicians have made it their duty to largely blame us for this mess. Middle class on cheap credit.

Pretty much what you’ve been saying for the last 6 years..

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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The real issue is that local homeowners want to get something for nothing, so the politicians have set up a system that abets this.

Complaining about RE agents and foreigners who exploit that is the real nitpicking.

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2 years 2 months ago
Charlie
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Everybody knows that local homeowners aka boomers are in on the denial. We know who’s doing the selling. Tell us something we don’t know, or continue to obscure or nitpick.

The real issue is that boomers, politicians and ‘expert analysts’ like you have stubbornly/inexplicably continued to propagate the myth that its been largely the middle class double-incomed doing most of the west of Main SFH buying because of easy money cheap credit. And consequently it’s pretty much our fault that prices are where they are now. Impossible! That’s a HUGE chunk of Vancouver btw before you try to play it down.

And before you throw another confusion post, yes we know we buy condos and east side houses…

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2 years 2 months ago
Zero Down Forty
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Actually, there were 2,000 detached sales on the West Side last year.

http://www.vancouver-westside-real-estate.com/vancouver-westside.asp

That’s out of a total of 42,326 in the REBGV area (not including Surrey, Langley).

http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=December&year=2015

That’s only 5% of all sales. Not a huge chunk.

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2 years 2 months ago
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I would vote for this as my favorite quote:
“I am disappointed in the Canadian government. They don’t have the sense to look at what’s happening out there. Poor Canadians – they just don’t understand.”

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2 years 2 months ago
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A deadly 6.4 earthquake hit Taiwan today with much destructions leads me to think about the looming 9 to 10 thats going to level Vancouver soon. Maybe its time to get the hell out of dodge.

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2 years 2 months ago
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Eagerly awaiting to see how Moonbeam and Krusty dismiss the latest G&M expose. Probably will involve the terms “racism”, “free-market” and “equity”.

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/vancouver-mayor-wants-a-flipper-tax-and-thursdays-other-reasons-to-fear-for-humanity

“Vancouver’s mayor wants the province to take drastic steps to curb the speculative mania that is making Vancouver’s housing even less affordable than ever. In a letter to Premier Christy Clark, Gregor Robinson asks for a provincial “luxury housing” tax, a levy on property flippers, and the power to reduce the number of unoccupied homes by tracking down owners and limiting “excessive vacancies.” ”

This is from June 2015.

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2 years 2 months ago
Doomcouver
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If I remember correctly Christy Clarke rejected this proposal because it would damage people’s home equity. Apparently she fails to grasp the concept of a real estate bubble entirely…

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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Oh she grasps it. That’s the point of the opening post of this thread.

The fact that this government has been taking one measure after another to prop up prices speaks for itself.

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2 years 2 months ago
wwww
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Crystal Mall Parking…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGPJOPCpyFM

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2 years 2 months ago