Canada, economy, prices

House prices up across Canada

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It’s not just Vancouver – House prices are up 17% in one year across Canada.

Of course the big increases are happening in Toronto and Vancouver where sales and prices seem to just keep going up and up, while inventory stays low:

That”s even the case in hot markets, where homes are snapped up in record time. “Vancouver’s market is drum tight, with an almost unheard of 91 per cent sales-to-new listings ratio,” BMO economist Robert KAvcic said. “In other words, almost every new listing is getting absorbed within the month as record sales meet average growth in new listings.”

We have found the secret to unlimited wealth and it is housing debt!

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Many Franks
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China Capital Flight 2.0: Lose A Lawsuit On Purpose From the underground banks of southern China to deliberately overpaying for imports, Chinese residents have a dizzying plethora of ways to spirit money away from the economic uncertainties of home and toward the safer shores of hard currency. Now, American lawyer Dan Harris says at least one Chinese company is attempting a new way to beat Beijing’s tightening regime of capital controls: by faking a breach-of-contract lawsuit with an offshore entity which the Chinese company intends to “lose.” Watchdogs circling Vancouver’s flipping marketBut realtors note that real estate agents also have fiduciary duty to their clients not to release details of sales agreements. For example, if a realtor’s client is buying a property to flip it, no disclosure has to be made to the original seller, said veteran Vancouver realtor and… Read more »
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space889
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I think for CRA it is the reverse of normal judicial process where you have to process your innocence. Regardless, it is pretty hard to hide the fact that you are flipping a house 3 months after you bought it.

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2 years 7 months ago
patriotz
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If you are charged with income tax evasion, you are entitled to the same process and presumption of innocence as for any criminal charge.

However if CRA simply reassesses your income, that is a civil matter and there is no guilt or innocence to be proven.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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Vancouver housing prices jump over 30%

http://globalnews.ca/news/2520183/vancouver-housing-prices-jump-over-30-toronto-also-sees-spike/

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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we have found the source of unlimited wealth and it is HAM!

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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And who doesn’t like a good helping of good old fashion HAM aka Canadian Bacon? 🙂

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bullwhip29
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Vanc RE priced in USD is still well below the 2011 peak and has been sideways (at best) for approx 5 yrs. Naturally all the bull maniacs who continue to tout the virtues of the endless wave of int’l money flowing into what is clearly a “global”, “world class” marketplace will simply ignore this fact as it doesnt support their thesis. Ask anyone who has kept Cdn cash under their mattress (or in a TSX index fund) for the last few years if they feel wealthier when they travel, go to the grocery store, pay for bills and consider pretty much every other aspect of their lives. You can also ask the average working stiff out there if he/she has realized a wage increase of some 30-40% in the same time frame to at least offset some of this. Eventually… Read more »
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space889
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So basically, the Chinese rich who hasn’t bought yet need not worry too much as the prices hasn’t risen that much in RMB or USD terms. They can still get it at the same price as 5 years ago.

And really, if you are that worried with the Cdn dollar decline, why are you still working for CAD$ instead of being paid in USD?

Plus, with currencies, what comes around goes around. How soon do we forget the 90s and all the talk about Canadian peso and/or calls to adopt US $ as our currency, before Cdn$ started going up and went to par??

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bullwhip29
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So, despite record amts of foreign cash entering this market, prices are flat in USD. This could be interpreted in many ways.

The vast majority of Cdns are paid in loonies meaning they have experienced a significant pay cut (effectively) in recent yrs.

The peak for CADUSD coincided with the top for commodities. That is behind us now. At best China is going to have to deal with a soft landing in the coming years. There is no way whatsoever that what they’ve built up over the last decade or two can be replicated going forward. If the situation there is handled poorly, 2008 willl look like a walk in the park.

I have joked numerous times in the past that I saw Cda going the way of Mexico and continue to maintain this stance.

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space889
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This is what people thought in the 90s too before a commodity boom and Paul Martin’s balanced budget on the back of falling interest rates bailed us out. Unless there are alternatives to oil, gas, coal, etc on a mass scale, commodity will come back, granted it might be a decade before it does. So until then, yes Canada is likely to have low loonie, bad job market, and slow growing economy. However, I don’t think we would go to 3rd world country status unless gov’t & people started doing really stupid anti-growth policies. Also, the way Mexico is going, they might actually overtake Canada if we don’t stop relying on commodities & housing as our big economic drivers. What Canada has been lacking for ages is a competitive entrepreneurial spirit. Seriously, why is Canada exporting lumber and importing finished… Read more »
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patriotz
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Vancouver teardown in Point Grey sells for almost $2.5M

New York City, USD 1.8 million

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space889
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The NY one isn’t exactly in the same location as Point Grey though….

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ostritch
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Come on, Jamaica NY. Put us a few blocks off Central Park and let’s see what we can get with 1.8M. And don’t send us to Harlem please. It’s not the equivalent of Point Grey.

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Vanco
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30% increase yoy is unbelievable. Not even the most optimistic bulls would predict this last year. Just shows that it’s foolish to try and time the market, stock or housing.

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space889
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No one can call absolute top or bottom aside from luck, but usually you can get the general direction of the market right and likelihood of a boom (very hard) or crash (slight easier) if you analyze the market & signals properly and looking at the right signals.

Fundamentals work in the long run but that could be very very long run, and you have to update it when structural breaks occurs.

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ostritch
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Real estate is easier to time because inventory levels move slowly. If you’re ready to go, you can get listed in a week.

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bullwhip29
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This screams late inning blow off top. The signs are all there. Markets that go parabolic always crash in a spectacular fashion and take no prisoners in the process. We’re already starting to see the beginning of this in what were supposed to be bullet proof, can’t lose US blue chips and FANG-like stocks, which just suddenly fell out of bed on Jan 4. Bulls everywhere know this isnt sustainable but firmly believe they’ve positioned themselves appropriately in advance of the music stopping, so to speak. In my opinion, focusing on getting a chair when the music ends means little when the whole floor under you is about to collapse.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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didn’t you just say vancouver prices are gong sideways? now you’re saying they are going parabolic.

“So, despite record amts of foreign cash entering this market, prices are flat in USD. “

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bullwhip29
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More on the “signs”….

ramp up in ads and happy talk from the RE industry and MSM

non stop 24/7 ads from payday loan sharks and alternative lenders like Capital Direct, Dominion Lending etc

coordinated jawboning from central bankers, CEOs and the like just when things started to buckle. here we are just a few pts off all time highs for stocks and they’re worried about a repeat of 2008 all over again (by insisting ad nauseum that this isnt like that at all)

more and more evidence of financial fraud here and abroad

bizarre and unexplained moves in financial markets which are kept under wraps by the MSM

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space889
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Anyone who actually believed that FANG stocks are foolproof can expect a very expensive lesson in believing can’t lose stocks. Seriously, that concept is as bad as those get rich quick schemes police are always warning people about.

As for Van RE, didn’t you also earlier just stated that prices in RMB/USD hasn’t risen in 5 years? If so, then Van RE isn’t going parabolic, rather it’s stagnating and if you believe foreign money is driving the market, then it’s not given whether it would consolidate to go higher, or forming a big top and dropping down.

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GreenSalad
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@ Vanco
Actually trying to time the market is not foolish at all….many pros do it all the time. It’s knowing when a market is trading on fundamentals and exercising discipline…
To your other point…I question that 30% figure….

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space889
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Good managers who aren’t bond to an index mandate can usually get out in the first 25% fall and avoid the rest of the 75% fall. That alone will probably boost your return compared to buy & hold. Missing the biggest drops & the proverbial 10/25 best days will still pop up your returns way more than buy and hold.

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ostritch
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Don’t question it. For some properties, like the one I’m in, it’s real.

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Shut It Down Already
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Regardleas, the majority of those who attempt to time the market will get it wrong – like vangrl, who sold before the peak.

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Not the real Garth Turner
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How dare you guys imply foreign money is to blame. Ruins my business damn you! I need people to sell homes so I can invest their money and take a cut. 🙂

I’m not like Madoff you know. Im a former politician tho.

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squeak
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It is a cash party, print it up, super low interest rates, stoke the media fire, line of credit: buy those fancy schmancy cars, spend spend . If the house prices don’t go up: we wont vote for you! I’m a genious and better than thou!! Wow.. so remote from what we were taught in school and by my elders: be frugal, don’t brag: it is bad taste, be modest, live within your means, pay your debts-better yet, don’t get into debt, save for that rainy day, be fiscally responsible, live by basic 10 commandments, work hard, be honest and in time it will pay off. Really? In today’s Canada? In today’s so called economy? There is a huge gap between my values and what is happening HERE,TODAY. So my old tip to get out of BC and Vancouver for… Read more »
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space889
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And go where?? US isn’t really that much different than Canada and some would say worse. And where are those 3rd world country people going? Developed nations like Canada!

So serious question, where would you go that’s better?

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history
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“We have found the secret to unlimited wealth and it is housing debt!”

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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The new BC budget with some RE measures:
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/budget+offers+help+buyers+homes/11723141/story.html

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2 years 7 months ago
patriotz
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The government will, starting Wednesday, exempt any purchaser of a newly-built home, condo or townhouse valued under $750,000 from the property transfer tax, potentially saving them up to $13,000.

I have to say I thought the subsidy to the RE industry would be a bit more subtle.

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2 years 7 months ago
Many Franks
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Yep. I had low expectations and they still managed to disappoint.

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ostritch
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Yup. Pathetic.

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Andy
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Wow. So glad that we are going to start to track foreign ownership. It’s going to have a real impact. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/02/22/chinas-rich-kids-head-west

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ostritch
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I wish they could just track the money rather than the mortgage signer or title holder because we’ve already seen local agents take on that job for their clients. I’m sure they’ve got cousins who aren’t agents who would like to earn a few extra bucks.

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Yunak
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Right, they just created a framework to support status quo and legalize laundering and tax evasions.

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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Also, what about those absent Canadian citizen or PR who are Canadian in name only, but really reside and live elsewhere? It really doesn’t do much, though I guess once the number is out after a few years, at least we could say, foreign buyers really only account for about xxx% , and $yyy billions of total RE transactions. Then we can actually say if the amount of $$ is actually consequential or not.

But I’m guessing some people just simply will not stop blaming foreigners & immigrants no matter what.

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patriotz
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Nobody is a Canadian “in name only”. Either you’re a citizen or you’re not, whether you live in Vancouver or on Mars.

PR status is contingent on residence in Canada and this needs to be enforced more strictly.

Also note a citizen may be non-resident for tax purposes (e.g. Wayne Gretzky) and as such subject to the same taxation rules as a non-resident non-citizen.

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space889
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So you are saying citizens of convenience don’t exists?? Cuz I’m sure a lot of Canadian citizens in Lebanon, HK, etc don’t really consider themselves to be Canadian and I doubt they will do anything patriotic for Canada.

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that budget….. unbelievable……. I don’t even have words.

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Best place on meth
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This is Krusty math:

“De Jong’s budget outlined $47.5 billion in spending for the 2016/17 fiscal year, starting April 1, with a projected $264 million surplus. ”

“Total provincial debt is estimated to rise $2.4 billion next year, to $67.7 billion.”

Hello, accounting department?

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2 years 7 months ago
Mortgageslave
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@space It’s obvious that you don’t own a house or any investments with your complete BS…. “Good managers who aren’t bond to an index mandate can usually get out in the first 25% fall and avoid the rest of the 75% fall” Classic clueless investor, worried my stock will go to zero when they are falling…. If you sold out of the market in the past few weeks and missed Friday and the past two days you can write off 2016. I have stocks up 25% in that time, dividend payouts account for 71% of returns over the past 30 years in stock market. Space, once again you’ve proven that your ACFI. How’s your mom basement anyways? Is it only me or does everyone feel dumber when they read a spacecase comment?
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ostritch
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Gotta agree.

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ostritch
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What is ACFI? A c*nt without a clue? That would be CWAC.

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space889
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Actually you don’t know what you are talking about. Nobody is worried that an index would go to 0. And no, dividend don’t account for 70% of the total returns, unless you are talking only about the last 10 years.

As for timing the market, missing the worst declines and best days will still beat buy and hold. And frankly there are better ways that can get you to miss most of the bad days, and still get a lot of the good days like the last month. But I don’t feel like enlighten jerks like you. Suffice to say, a lot of very highly paid people disagree with your views.

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2 years 7 months ago
vangrl
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Space = The only person who’s been Bullish on the market forever yet never bothered to buy.
No real estate and obviously no stocks. Yet he spends all his time on here talking about both.

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2 years 7 months ago
Tim
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If space889 is the inimitable Victor Wong, then his family does own several properties in Vancouver, which he helps manage. If he’s Victor, any claim that he isn’t involved in this market is far from the truth.

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Best place on meth
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There is no way space is Victor Wong, he’s way too stupid.

Although they are both similarly deranged.

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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I’m not a realtor and I did said I own but you don’t believe me. So whatever….you can believe whatever makes you feel better but it still doesn’t make you a better person.

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diadora
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diadora
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Exclusive: China sends surface-to-air missiles to contested island in provocative move.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/02/16/exclusive-china-sends-suface-to-air-missiles-to-contested-island-in-provocative-move.html
One thing people in the west fails to realized, China is still a “Communist Dictatorship”

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2 years 7 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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No worries, President Trump will deal with those vermin next January.

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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space889
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And the military bases the other countries have in that contest region have what?? Just tourist attraction props??

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2 years 7 months ago
ostritch
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ostritch
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So what’s next a run on condo prices under $750,000? Prices have already been bid up quite a bit in the last year. I hear the ultimate high end SFHs have slowed as money is getting held up in China. If this is true, the next year of price wars could be totally Locals on Crack(Credit) doing themselves damage. One thing is certain, this market is never dull.

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2 years 7 months ago
ostritch
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ostritch
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Plus T2 is going on a spending spree into these headwinds. Not good long-term for the locals here. It could be Wily E Coyote running out past the cliff in 2-3 years. BUT NOT NOW.

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2 years 7 months ago
vangrl
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vangrl
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You’d save 1.7% of the purchase price with this tax break. Plus you have to buy new, so GST will eat that up x3.

But of course we’ll probably see a run just as we did with people trying to beat the new higher downpayment rules. Bidding 10-15% over asking in fear of having to put down an extra 5%… morons.

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2 years 7 months ago
ILoveCharts
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ILoveCharts
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This rule came into effect immediately.

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2 years 7 months ago
Oracle
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Oracle
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The changes in the budget are to drive up prices in the valley. Many MLAs own multiple properties there.

Lots of new homes will be sold there.

This is what happens when you let a criminal gang be elected.

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2 years 7 months ago
ChinaOne
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ChinaOne
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We like Christy Clark and Bc Liberal. We pay no MSP premium. My cousin pay no MSP premium. We drive Lexus. We like sleep in on weekdays. we like noodle for lunch on No 3 road Richmond. Best county in world after China.

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2 years 7 months ago
Yunak
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Yunak
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Is this you and cousin?

https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6217/6332801505_c6383883ef_b.jpg

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2 years 7 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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We need to build a wall around Richmond, and make China pay for it.

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2 years 7 months ago
A-hole
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A-hole
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Then fill that wall with water

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2 years 7 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Then fill that water with piranhas.

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2 years 7 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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The toss the ignorant racists into the water with bacon wrapped around their genitals.

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2 years 7 months ago
Whistler or bust?
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Whistler or bust?
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Pope by letting Space and his gang of fools game the voting it makes the rest of the people who actually contribute not want to even bother.

You need IP bans now and you need to take control of your blog back.

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2 years 7 months ago
vangrl
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vangrl
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agree. why bother having the voting when it’s rigged? Ban that IP.

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2 years 7 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Best way to fix this blog is to get back to discussing RE again. A good start might be to hold all posts containing links in a moderation queue and can all of them that contain pointless off-topic negative news articles about Asians. IP bans for repeat offenders, including the “regulars”.

The lunatics are running the asylum.

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2 years 7 months ago
patriotz
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If you mean PRC Chinese say so, not “Asian”. Spare us the political correctness.

Of course neither the Chinese nor any other nationality from Asia call themselves “Asian”, unless they are referring to the whole continent collectively. The word itself is European (it originally meant present day Western Turkey).

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2 years 7 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Oh dear. Mr Nitpicker strikes again.

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2 years 7 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Also, I don’t recall you making the same pointless comment to explain how “HAM” should really be “HPRCM”. A little hypocritical, wouldn’t you say?

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2 years 7 months ago
patriotz
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As you already know, I don’t think foreigners are responsible for the bubble in the first place, so why should I “correct” one bogus term with another?

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2 years 7 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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You clearly work for the government.

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2 years 7 months ago
Whistler or bust?
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Whistler or bust?
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Start with IP bans on Space and Hyper Mega Bull. Notice the 15 up votes for ridiculous articles

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2 years 7 months ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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Hyper-mega-Bull
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first, just because you don’t like the articles i post doesn’t make them ridiculous. second, i have nothing to do with the voting discrepancies.

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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But the flurry of down votes for all those articles posted by BPOM that has nothing to do with RE are what? Purely on topic and good?

And article regarding BC Budget are ridiculous?? Seriously?

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2 years 7 months ago
Nong
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Nong
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Don’t go EXO in Vancouver

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSTJiGFHJnw

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2 years 7 months ago
Squamish22
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Anyone know if a map of planned future developments on the Quest University lands in Squamish can be found anywhere?

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2 years 7 months ago
southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Is a housing price correction coming in Toronto and Vancouver?”, Maclean’s magazine

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/home-sales-up-8-last-month-average-price-soars-17-per-cent/

“Surging sales in the piping hot real estate markets of Toronto and Vancouver last month prompted one of Canada’s big banks to express concerns Tuesday that the cities may be at risk of a home price correction.”

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2 years 7 months ago
ChinaOne
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ChinaOne
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My cousin buy rancher last year. It go up in value. He say now raise rent. he take cash only.

i told my mom buy another rancher. we then raise rent. we love this county.

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2 years 7 months ago
history
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history
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“With slow economy growth, commodity and property price fall, the asset quality outlook for Asian banks quickly deteriorate, and will adjust downward Standard Charter Bank EPS in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 by 75%, 42%, 30% and 22% respectively.”

“Morgan Stanley in its report, reiterated its Underweight rating for STANCHART with Target Price cut from $68 to $46, as the bank will underperform its European and Asia-Pacific counterparts. Under the bearest scenario the target price is at $29. “

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2 years 7 months ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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Hyper-mega-Bull
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“If B.C. and Ontario were stripped out, the picture would look even bleaker — the average price of a Canadian home would have dropped by 0.3”

vancouver #1 HAM city. toronto #2 HAM city.

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2 years 7 months ago
VanRant
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VanRant
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Uh On, this can’t be good for Ham…
“An amended Property Transfer Tax Act will authorize Victoria to collect new information on the citizenship of individual homebuyers, and compel directors of corporations involved in transactions to disclose their citizenship. Transferees will also be required to disclose whether they are holding land as “bare trustees” and provide information on the beneficiaries of trust funds. The use of bare trusts has been identified as a “loophole” in B.C.’s real estate market that obscures buyer identities and encourages speculation from foreign investors, according to critics.
http://www.theprovince.com/homes/government+begin+tracking+citizenship+home+buyers/11723363/story.html

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2 years 7 months ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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Hyper-mega-Bull
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it’s not good, but it’s not bad either. after decades of foreign money impacting our market they have decided to analyze the problem.

how much longer until ANY action is taken? how much longer until EFFECTIVE action is taken? HAM are experts at getting around the rules.

also, this doesn’t address the issue of people who are citizens and PR in name only, PR for sale, schools that just act as student visa mills. the discussion on this issue hasn’t even begun.

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2 years 7 months ago
space889
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space889
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I’m sure those highly paid lawyers and accountants will find a way around it. That’s what they are paid for and why they are so highly paid.

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2 years 7 months ago