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Friday Free-for-all! March 10th 2016

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Another grand week in paradise draws to a close, the weekend awaits.

And you know what that means? That means it’s Free-for-all time, our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Bank of Canada good on rates
–We’re building lots of condos
–Who’s doing what
–We’re not realtors
–Think of the children
–Local demand irrelevant?
–Empty homes are low
–

So, what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
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@ulsterman: “Was Amanda’s “skill” buying the house below market value?”

Exactly, by making unsolicited offers. A property that is publicly listed is going to sell for market value by definition. I thought that in one of the world’s most RE-aware cities people would understand this by now, but I guess not.

The biggest money-making skill has always been the ability to identify gullible people.

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space889
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The thing I don’t get is why should people be forced to use a RE to buy real estate? If I got money to spend on RE but too lazy to look for it myself, or live somewhere, why should I be forced to hire a realtor to do it? Especially when all the heavy duty work are done by lawyers anyways? And lawyers aren’t legally required either, just notary public is sufficient in most cases too.

Maybe, the gov’t should stop over regulating and get out of the way. If realtors offer actual value then let them prove it in the marketplace.

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patriotz
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“The thing I don’t get is why should people be forced to use a RE (agent) to buy real estate? ”

You’re not. Any buyer and seller can negotiate a sale between themselves. What you do need is a lawyer or notary to handle the conveyance.

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space889
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In the article, there was mention that these wholesales people operate in a legal gray area, and another mention about warnings sent to certain people to either get license or decease their buying activity. And I believe they had someone from the Realtor associations saying this kind of activities without license can be illegal.

So seems like there is at least some legal issues around this practice.

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patriotz
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I would guess that someone who is buying on behalf of another person would fall under the classification of a RE broker and require a RE agent’s license. Note this is not the same thing a being a Realtor, which means being a member of the REBGV or similar boards. These boards have no statutory authority.

But someone who simply engages in buying and selling properties, i.e. your standard flipper, is not an agent.

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space889
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Don’t you have to belong to some RE board to have a RE license?

Regardless, if I hire someone to find and buy RE on my behalf cuz say I’m just too lazy, why do I have to hire someone with a RE license? This seems like gov’t over regulation to me.

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voter
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Good question.Why should people be forced to buy real estate to live where their born.If we had a real country people should be able to pay a fair rent and live here for the rest of their lives.

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FirstWorldProblems
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My wife and I bought a SFH in 2013 for 900K in Van West. It was listed slightly above its 2008 selling price – it was one of the cheapest at the time. A divorce gone bad apparently, we ‘lucked out’ at the time, but I thought we were nuts at the time.

We’ve since learned that houses with this lot size and characteristics sell for over 1.5m. I want to sell and materialize those gains in to tax free hard currency, but the wife wants to stay.

I keep telling her that rare opportunities to make +600k in 2 years don’t last forever, but she says in 10 years it will be worth 2m or more. I also reminder not to be emotionally attached to a box.

Any suggestions on arguments I can use to convince her to sell ?

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2 years 10 months ago
vangrl
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what is the mortgage on it?

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Royce McCutcheon
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Too few personal variables here to give meaningful feedback, I think. vangrl notes outstanding mortgage. There’s also your current household earnings/job stability, your intentions if/when you cash out (stay in the region and buy elsewhere? stay in the region and rent? leave?), your proximity to retirement, whether the house will meet your needs long-term, etc. Without knowing any of that, all I’ll say is that if you know you can move to sell at the absolute first sign that the market might be tapering off – and can get your spouse to agree to that up front (a tall order, maybe) – it might be worth hanging on a bit longer. It’s a risk, to be sure. But if/when the market turns, you’ll be prepared to be at the front of the stampede and you could come out ahead by… Read more »
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bestplaceonearth
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the answer is on the wall. listen to your wife. why would you ask this question to those who have been priced out for the last 12 years; all because, they didn’t grow a pair.

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space889
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Sounds like a perfect letter to: Dear Garth, I …..

And seriously, you are asking advice from people who thought prices were too high back in 08 and the crash is just around corner??

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Royce McCutcheon
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Many of the people frustrated by housing costs here were in undergrad in 2008. Heck, I know some who were in high school. Some people cling too tightly to the notion that the only people opposed to the current situation are 40+ year old basement dwellers who bet wrong a decade or more ago.

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space889
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I don’t see a lot of new posters on this blog. Most of the posters are from 08 and ’til this day refuse to admit they were wrong, really wrong about the market. Don’t see how this is the best place to ask for advice about selling.

Frankly, at this point, it’s a toss up between SFH keep on going crazy for a few more years, or stall and crash. But given the diminishing supply of SFH in choice areas, and that most people still covet that SFH with white picket fence, I think this crazy run got some more legs to go.

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vangrl
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would you shut-up already with the “refuse to admit we were wrong”. No one has refused to admit anything. And if you were so right, why in the world didn’t you capitalize on it? you only make yourself look more like an idiot (if that’s possible) by pretending you were right and knew our prices would go up for the last 8 years and you didn’t even buy anything.

Was that poll on the side of the page posted just for fun, or is there supposed to be an outcome?

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bestplaceonearth
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those undergrads already accepted and moved on to condo lives.

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Funkeymonkey
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Or moved to another city like so many of my friends. Not in bc.

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patriotz
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I think this post is a troll. The language and situation are clichéd.

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space889
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Hence perfect for a Dear Garth letter 🙂

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bestplaceonearth
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trolling? haven’t you been doing so since the slice of bread?

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2 years 10 months ago
ChinaOne Swallows Dicks
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Can any translate gibberish for me?

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ostritch
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First look around for your next “brilliant” purchase. If it’s out there as it’s an insanely competitive market right now.. Then buy it with a long close if possible. Then sell. You are both right.

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ostritch
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Oh. And ask yourself if your next purchase will go up at the same speed as your current home.

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Burt
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You have a great house in one of the most desirable neighbourhoods in North America.
If you intend to stay in the city, are decently comfortable financial, why sell and uproot your family?

Enjoy the house, enjoy Vancouver. Forget what the house is worth, and live a full life.

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space889
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But if you can clear say $1.5M net, isn’t that enough for you to move to a retirement country / region like Caribbean, Philippine, Thailand, Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc or even China, price a local doctor/professional family out of their own local real estate, send your kid to a private academy you can’t afford here, and live a hedonist lifestyle all on interest / investment returns, and if you are smart, still eligible to collect all social benefits back in Canada?? Seriously. A millionaire can live very nicely in lots places in the world and never have to work again. Why stay and work? Especially if you don’t like your job very much in the first place?

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patriotz
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No, it’s not nearly enough. A retiree couple with $1.5M net worth and CPP/OAS can do OK in a low cost foreign country. No way can you support a family to Western standards, particularly after buying a middle class dwelling, and given the cost of Western private education in such places. You are also seriously underestimating the immigration barriers to many of them. In particular, retirees from the EU countries can move around them and receive social benefits but you can’t.

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space889
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A conservative 5% return on $1.5M is $75K/year which is above the average income here. Greece, Spain, Cyprus have pretty low entrance requirements now, just buy a house for xxx amount. Philippines, Thailand, Caribbeans can be even cheaper, and you can probably supplement your income teaching English to local young ladies and lads.

Not a high life, but a comfy life for sure.

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paulb
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New
230
Sold
300
TI:8097

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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bestplaceonearth
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told you months ago, if you haven’t bought your condos already, it’s too late now. buy a trailer like mine.

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space889
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Record sales, record low inventory, if this keeps up, pretty soon the only inventory are going to be new builds, and forced sells from divorces….

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Doomcouver
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I believe the super tight real estate market in Vancouver and Toronto is the main reason why CMHC is finally looking into foreign ownership seriously. It was estimated there was over $1 Trillion in capital outflows from China last year. That money is searching everywhere for perceived high yield/low risk investments. With the vertical trajectory Van RE has taken, the wealthy elites from China are salivating for more Vancouver property. Add that to the fear of being priced out for the locals, and you end up with all out price insanity escalating everywhere in the GVR. Right now we’re in pure greed-mode in this market from all players. At some point the end of this prolonged supercycle will lead to total fear, and speculators will use cut-rate pricing to liquidate these extremely illiquid assets. The prices, set at the margins,… Read more »
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space889
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Maybe for condos & TH. But Vancouver West SFH? I’m not so sure. A lot of the people bought those with cash and can really hold on. They aren’t as leverage as locals and can basically just hold if they don’t like the price. And SFH supply is continuously dwindling and we know what a dwindling supply does to price in a basically supply-demand formula.

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dyugle
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1% of a trillion is 10 billion. At 5% down that equals a borrowing capacity of 200 billion in real estate. 1 billion is a thousand million. Thus if only 1% of the outflow finds its way to Vancouver’s market that represents 200 thousand real estate transactions valued at one million dollars. But according to Garth this would not affect our market??????

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SuperDupered
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Garth Turner is a sad joke for whoever follows or followed him. Its no wonder neither of the official parties had any use for him.

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wwwww
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Citizenship revamp: New Canadians no longer have to intend to live in Canada

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1919566/citizenship-revamp-new-canadians-no-longer-have-intend-live-canada

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patriotz
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That requirement was contrary to the Charter of Rights and would have been thrown out by the courts anyway, which is perhaps why the former Con government didn’t try to enforce it.

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space889
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So basically we are just giving our citizenship away to anyone who’s willing to fill out some form? And requiring new citizenships to actually want to live in Canada is contrary to Charter of Rights??? WTF?? Exactly which section of the Charter does it violate?

If we are going to just give away citizenship to anyone who wants, I hope at least we are charging an appropriate amount for this. Maybe at least $2.5M?

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patriotz
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Canada grants citizenship to those meeting the requirements set out under law. If you feel those requirements aren’t strict enough, you can ask your politician of choice to change them.

The government has no power to oblige any citizen to live in Canada:

6. (1) Every citizen of Canada has the right to enter, remain in and leave Canada.

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Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Prospective citizens have to spend years physically present in Canada as a PR before they can take the oath. After that they have the same mobility rights as any other citizen. What’s the problem exactly?

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Doomcouver
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Surprised this hasn’t been posted yet:

http://www.moneysense.ca/save/debt/canadian-household-debt-rises-to-a-record-high/

Household debt is now at 165.4% in Q4 2015 compared to 164.5 in Q3. This is a disaster waiting to happen. BoC should have raised rates despite anemic economic growth ages ago. Canadian businesses are hoarding cash, so access to cheap credit does almost nothing to stimulate growth anyways.

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patriotz
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Sure it does, which is why both the federal and provincial governments (the latter via property tax deferral) keep it going. For the short run, anyway, but that’s what politicians are interested in.

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Many Franks
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Kerry Gold goes looking for problems with the housing vacancy report:

Poking holes in Vancouver’s housing vacancy study

There’s an interesting comment from Tom Davidoff buried near the end:

He’s had recent discussions with the province that look promising.

“I am quite optimistic that something will happen,” he says.

I’ll believe it when I see it, but that’s already more than I would have expected.

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2 years 10 months ago
Zero Down Forty
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Considering that, in the last decade, housing starts outpaced household growth 17to13 in Metro, it’s not surprising that there are empty homes. More homes have been built than are needed. Overbuilding is typical of a bubble.

Empty homes… whether there are a lot of them or a few… are not the cause of high home prices, but the result of speculative frenzy.

Once again, the media is chasing after the effect not the cause.

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ostritch
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A 1.5% tax on foreign owners. I actually laughed out loud.

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Brian Ripley
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re: “We’re building lots of condos”
I have added city housing starts data to my provincial housing starts chart page:

http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

CITY MONTHLY
​Housing Starts FEB 29, 2016
​Toronto +85% M/M
Montreal +30 M/M
Vancouver +72 M/M
Calgary +4 M/M​​
​
CITY ANNUALIZED
​Housing Starts FEB 29, 2016
​Toronto +107% Y/Y
Montreal +34% Y/Y
Vancouver +313% Y/Y
Calgary +80% Y/Y​

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2 years 10 months ago
Confucius
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Gotta keep up with the foreign buyers by going deep into debt.

http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Canadian-Housing-Mortgage-Investment-Corporations-4.jpg

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Shut It Down Already
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Funny, for all that foreign money “trickling down” people don’t seem to be getting any richer….

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paulb
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New
208
Sold
206

TI:8060

For weekly sales and/or new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhood and market segment can be quite different.
http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Shut It Down Already
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If listings keep piling up like this I predict we’ll have 8.5K by July!!

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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You’re not the only worthless. traitorous cunt who’s giddy about record low inventory and skyrocketing prices.

Krusty and De Jong are beside themselves with glee.

Mike even attempted his first ever e-mail to celebrate.

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2 years 10 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Napoleon complex? Has to be.

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2 years 10 months ago
GreenSalad
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http://57.media.tumblr.com/b151e16140e06d99d610e619c82f46c1/tumblr_mmqmp0dqOx1qa4w2ho2_250.gif

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2 years 10 months ago
NorthVan56
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Does anyone know what 4282 Mountain Highway sold for?

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2 years 10 months ago
voter
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An arm and and a leg.

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2 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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No honour among thieves, it seems.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-realty-withholding-commissions-from-sale-of-luxury-homes-agents-say/article29198578/

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2 years 10 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Sounds like standard locust business practices to me: “The agents involved said the owner of New Coast Realty, Ze Yu Wu, required them to sign a contract when they were hired, written in Chinese. Each contract has a set term – nine years for example – that agents must work for the company to fulfill the terms. They all said they weren’t allowed to have a copy of what they signed. The Globe and Mail obtained one of those contracts. The translation reveals a clause that says any agent who goes to another firm will lose all outstanding commissions. The contract reads: “Important item. If Party B [the realtor] terminates the cooperation agreement and joins another real estate agency, all the commissions from all the property sales by Party B belongs to Party A [New Coast]. Party B cannot communicate… Read more »
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2 years 10 months ago
franko
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It must suck for locusts having to learn enough English to pass the 4 week real estate entry course.
Just a matter of time until they force the GVRA to offer the course in Chinese as they surely hold the majority in membership by now.
Might have to wait a few years for them to monopolize the industry enough to change the course to Chinese only.

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2 years 10 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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No Canadian companies or individuals would act that way. That’s why courts and lawyers didn’t even exist until recently.

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2 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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Um, the article is about a Canadian company.

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2 years 10 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Um, you know what I meant Mr Nitpicker.

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2 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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Sure did, Donald.

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2 years 10 months ago
ChinaOne Swallows Dicks
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ChinaOne Swallows Dicks
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GVRD = Greater Vancouver Realturd Douchbags.

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2 years 10 months ago
wwwww
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Measles risk at Vancouver Airport

Vancouver Coastal Health is warning passengers on a flight from Beijing to Vancouver that they could be at risk of getting measles.

http://www.cknw.com/2016/03/11/measles-risk-at-vancouver-airport/?sc_ref=twitter

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2 years 10 months ago
Bestplaceonearth
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And this would bring in the van re correction?

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2 years 10 months ago
wwwww
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No.

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2 years 10 months ago
Yikes
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Market is being engineered as a pump n dump. .
I overhead yesterday 2 agents taking about there latest pump on Grant Street in Vancouver sure enough I live in that area and dug up a few off the chart sales their current pump is 2796 Grant which just sold last month for 1.5 ..the other 2722 Grant is being sold as a assignment on Craigslist by New Coast. ..and the suckered who bought 2710 Kitchner a block away just got bent over. .they talked about bag holder’s and making quick cash saying that they only have a few more months before it busts. …Wow man..Beware

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2 years 10 months ago
bestplaceonearth
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and i supposed these two agents know the market would bust in a few months?

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2 years 10 months ago
p123
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I agree just wishful thinking, if it hasn’t busted in 10 years what are the chances of it happening in a few months.

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2 years 10 months ago
OpenCourse
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Buy shares with their ill-gotten money in two western mining companies before announcing their billion-dollar takeover bids. After the news of the bids were made public and the share prices soared, then quickly dumped the shares for a A$1.7 million profit.
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/1923122/australia-jails-chinese-ex-hanlong-mining-boss-steven-xiao

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2 years 10 months ago
null
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This year:

Passengers on Air China flight 991 to Vancouver at risk of measles – Mar 11, 2016

And last yer:
Measles found in 2 passengers on Air China flight CA991 to Vancouver – Mar 23, 2015

Second flight from China to Vancouver has brought threat of measles to Canada – Apr 08 2015

Could be more. I stopped looking.

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2 years 10 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Get vaccinated rather than being a hippy and/or conspiracy theorist. Problem solved.

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2 years 10 months ago
null
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Measles makes a comeback in China as vaccination falters among migrant workers

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1548296/measles-makes-comeback-china-vaccination-falters-among-migrant-workers

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2 years 10 months ago
bestplaceonearth
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wow, this news is so important…measles bust the re buuble !

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2 years 10 months ago
null
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I didn’t say it’s “so important” or that it would bust any bubble.

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2 years 10 months ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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The real news is that this the best thing to come out of china in the last 60 years.

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2 years 10 months ago
Newcomer
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After ten years renting to us, our landlady has decided to sell this 1.1 M shack (it’s not that’s it’s awful, it’s just that I couldn’t imagine a millionaire wanting to live here). Does anyone have any suggestions about where to look for new digs. Are there some property management companies out there that specialize in larger places (we really need at least three bedrooms).?

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2 years 10 months ago
crazy
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Yes Troll prices are very good in Prince Rupert

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2 years 10 months ago
Newcomer
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Are you saying that you think I am a Troll? How could that be a trolling post? FWIW, I’ve been on this site and the ones that preceded this one for the past 10 years, but I don’t know who you are.

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2 years 10 months ago
Bestplaceonearth
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In case you don’t know, it’s the land.

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2 years 10 months ago
Mark Etting
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Can you blame her? I’m guessing that cash in hand is probably worth more than she could get from it in rent over the next many years.

What part of town are you looking in?

As I’m sure you already know, craigslist has a lot of garbage but you can occasionally find something good there.

Oddly enough I’ve found my best rentals in vancouver by looking in less widely used places, like the courier classifieds, etc.

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2 years 10 months ago
Newcomer
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Thanks. I certainly can’t blame her. I would have sold basically every year that I’ve been there. It’s not that I’m a perma-bear but the fundamentals have been screaming sell for ten years. For all I know they may go on screaming sell while prices go up for another ten, or twenty or a hundred years. I am no longer capable of surprise.

We are hoping to find something in the East Village/Sunrise/Drive area.

I never thought of the Courier. Good idea.

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2 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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How to exit the housing market without exiting your house

It’s called a sale and leaseback and now a group of Toronto realtors, who say they are specialists in dealing with seniors, are bringing the concept to the residential market. The group says they have already structured 15 deals with hopes of more to come.

So someone has come up with another scheme to get people to sell below market, plus take a bigger cut of the proceeds.

To get the market price for a property you have to list it publicly and sell to the highest bidder. Is having to move such a bad thing? You can easily afford to rent a place just as nice as the old one.

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2 years 10 months ago
wwwww
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International students ballooning in Richmond

2016 marks a record year as close to one in 20 students are non-residents in the Richmond School District

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/international-students-ballooning-in-richmond-1.2196290#sthash.l5ZoBGaY.dpuf

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2 years 10 months ago
The Lowdown
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Was at a post NDP gathering last nite. New proposal coming out from them is a 2% tax on a purchased house. Rebatable after 1 year if you are a PR or Citizen.

I objected. Said only Citizens should be allowed to purchase Canadian REsidential RE. But the participants have skin in the game.

Oh, de-ban ChinaOne. He tell truth.

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2 years 10 months ago
voter
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He and cousin probably at local Chinese restaurant learning new scheme to defraud Canadian out of anything they can.

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2 years 10 months ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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So the locals get to borrow even more so they can lend to the government for a year at 0%?

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2 years 10 months ago
voter
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Do you mean when Christy and her crew go to China on hands and knees begging for Chinese to buy bonds and real estate.

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2 years 10 months ago
southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Back From the Dead: Interest-Rate Hikes Are on the Radar Again”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/back-from-the-dead-interest-rate-hikes-are-on-the-radar-again-1457894871

“The U.S. bond market is starting to think about something it hasn’t considered for months: rate increases”

“There is little expectation the Fed will raise rates when it announces its next policy decision on Wednesday. But the odds of an increase by June have jumped to 43%, and the odds of one by December are now 75%, based on the price of interest-rate futures on Friday. That is a sharp turnaround from early February, when the market was estimating the chance of a rate increase at either point at zero.”

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2 years 10 months ago
southseacompany
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“Central banks lurch from topsy-turvy 1970s to helicopter money”, Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e9334e48-e53e-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39.html#axzz42oaDZuNZ

“Consumers and businesses have not responded to (central banks’) policy measure. In fact, some households may be saving more because rock-bottom nominal interest rates make it harder to meet savings targets for pensions and so forth. This is curiously like the topsy-turvy habits of the 1970s when inflation produced very negative real interest rates, yet people saved more to plug the hole that real losses on savings left in their finances”

“The reality is that central banks’ policies are failing. In desperation they will no doubt turn to helicopter money next, which means overt monetary financing of government deficits. It is hard to believe that this will be any more successful. Expect more unintended consequences.”

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2 years 10 months ago
tedeastside
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tedeastside
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Today in SoCal……hows Vancouver
https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6137/5966472158_0b6d4f0605_b.jpg

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2 years 10 months ago
Bestplaceonearth
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Windy for sure. Are you there, or here in your mama basement sucking a pacifier!

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2 years 10 months ago
Null
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HAM doesn’t like sunshine; dont want to get dakr. so the weather here is perfect.

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2 years 10 months ago
voter
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Yeah you see them waling around town in the summer with umbrella’s. If they did that in L.A they’d probably call the men with the white coats.

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2 years 10 months ago