Friday Free-for-all! March 4th 2016

The weekend is almost here and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our standard end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Unconditional offers the new normal
$1 million over asking
Bubbles bursting everywhere
PC city councillor not PC
New York vs Vancouver
Kleptocracy Tour

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea

Still want to call China Friend….
“China Blocks South China Sea” The report comes from The Philippine Star newspaper in its Wednesday edition.
“The U.S. just sent a carrier strike group to confront China” From Navytimes.com

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

War is inevitable with China. China has to stop the island building. The USA might have something to say policy wise with all the China influence in Vancouver. I certainly don’t want a mini war here in Vancouver but don’t be mistaken. I’ll side with the USA every time.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“War is inevitable with China. ”

What a total joke of a post.

Many Franks
Member

A good summary of ongoing activity from various government agencies:

Who’s doing what about Vancouver’s real estate problem?

Plenty of mumbling and hand-waving from various levels, with few details. Of note: the City of Vancouver will be releasing a report tackling quantifying empty homes via electricity consumption. (Anyone remember Andrew Yan’s work on this a few years back?)

space889
Member
space889

Which is probably one of the easiest thing to get around.

Do a cross reference between all registered residential housing units (available at property tax office database) against CRA income tax filing address DB, and any property that doesn’t have a corresponding income tax return is a potentially empty home. Mail a notice to those home owners demanding proof of occupancy or face 3x property tax surcharge – lease agreement with ID + utility bills (electric & phone/cell) registered to that address. Cross check that info to ensure people aren’t using multiple fake lease agreements and such from the same person, or fake lease to family members/kids.

Problem solved. No need for some fancy study methods involving this or that.

Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea
space889
Member
space889

My preferences would be simply to tax everything as income, none of this special rate for dividends, cap gains, etc which really only benefits the wealthy who don’t need to work. And frankly, why should dividends, cap gains be taxed at lower rate than work?

Tax everything as income, lower the tax rate, eliminate all the deductions & credits – reduce the average income tax return to just 1 or 2 pages and done. Taxes should be simple, quick, and modest. That’s the easiest way to a fair tax system and cheapest to admin.

patriotz
Member

“And frankly, why should dividends, cap gains be taxed at lower rate than work?”

Actually dividends are taxed at the same rate as work. If an company pays someone a salary, that’s from its before-tax income. Dividends are paid from after-tax income. The receiver of dividends pays less tax on the dividends but the total tax paid to the government on the company’s income is about the same.

Capital gains equal accumulated after-tax income in the long run so a similar issue applies there.

space889
Member
space889

That’s such a torturous roundabout route to argument for reduced dividend tax, which again used to accrue mostly to the rich.

Using that argument, we could also argue that since most local working people are spending after tax income at stores, services, etc, then gov’t shouldn’t tax the owners & employee of those stores / services again, or reduce the tax like with dividends. But no, gov’t will tax it regardless of whether it is already taxed or not. So why should dividend be any different?

As well, companies gets to deduct expenses against revenue and pay tax only on the net difference. However, individuals have to pay tax on the full amount? It’s not like people don’t have fix required expenses to live.

patriotz
Member

If you want to make the rich pay higher taxes, just make the rich pay higher taxes.

Reality
Guest
Reality

The old money establishment won’t allow that. They have dumbed down the populace. The sheep don’t even know where to start.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The idiots voted to chop the TFSA in half, let’s not forget. Even when gifted a tax free investment vehicle they’re still too dumb to use it, and despite it being equally available to all they insist it’s a rich man’s tool (whilst shovelling their entire network into real estate).

Reality
Guest
Reality

One solution left. Stop all immigration. Otherwise your kids will be the renter slaves of future.

Another home $1 Million over asking.

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2016/03/04/point-grey-home-sells-for-1-million-over-its-asking-price/?

space889
Member
space889

Most people in engineering, commerce, CS, math, medicine either came here as immigrants or born to immigrant parents.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Right, but not many of those you mentioned came from China and we all know who should be stopped at the gates in order for BC to clean up the current mess and eventually slow down overall deterioration caused by bad selection of immigrants.

space889
Member
space889

That’s a laugh…been to UBC/SFU recently?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Behold! Another racist comes out of the closet!

voter
Guest
voter

B.S, who do you think built this country before you got here .In my line of work most of the TFW’s suck .and as for the recent immigrants they aren’t much better.

space889
Member
space889

And who was here before your ancestor got here? Geez…and I was told to stop glorify past.

remo mastronardi
Guest
remo mastronardi

90% of the doctors I see in any clinic or hospital in Vancouver are Caucasian

space889
Member
space889

and how about current medical school students? I see lots of young Asian internships & recent grads around.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

90% of doctors or 90% of all staff? Most staff I see in hospitals are from South East Asia. The hospital wouldn’t be able to function without them.

Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea

Vancouver Sun Opinion: We suggest three ways the budget could have tackled the issue more effectively:
– The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) residency tax should be linked to all real estate transactions.
– Non-residents and multiple property owners should pay much higher taxes.
– More provisions should be built in for the 53 per cent of Vancouverites who rent, including much more non-market housing.
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/editorials/opinion+budget+measures+housing+little+late/11761129/story.html

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

And a renters tax credit.

Why should homoaners get all the government handouts in this “free market”?

“Contrary to what the B.C. government has said, it is not just a few neighbourhoods in the popular west side of Vancouver that are being impacted. We must remember that the housing continuum is strongly interlinked. As land values reach insane levels, ripple effects will continue to price out growing families, seniors and low and middle-income wage earners across the Lower Mainland — the bedrock to any healthy and self-sustaining city.”

Did she say “ripple effects”? Nah, that’s a myth.

space889
Member
space889

Care to name some?? I can’t think of any real handouts to home owners.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Perhaps these don’t meet a Space-acceptable definition of “handout”, but:
– Interest-/penalty-free property tax deferrals. (Can you defer taxes in this way on other things?).
– RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan. (Is there anything else you can buy where you can “borrow” from your RRSP without penalty?).
– Home reno tax credits.
– Absence of capital gains on primary residence sales (something we charge on sale of many other investments/assets).

Measures like these allow home owners to dodge penalties or taxes, putting more money in their pockets.

But, again, you might not see massive tax relief as a “handout”.

space889
Member
space889
Property tax deferral is not interest free. It’s a low interest but not interest free. It’s part of the seniors benefits, part of vast array of benefits available only to those over a certain age, but not to the young families. RRSP HBP – you have to repay it back or pay tax on it. And yes, you can also borrow your tuition from your RRSP. Liberal will also allow a few other things soon as far as rumour goes. Home Reno Tax Credit – designed to get you to spend money on certain things. The credit is actually very low, less than $150 in actual taxes saved I think. So really peanuts. No capital gain on RE – yeah, that’s a big one but mostly benefits small developers and such. If you tax RE gains then you have allow… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Property tax deferral isn’t just for seniors, it’s also available to anyone with kids. Also since it”s simple not compound interest part of it is in fact interest free, and the simple interest is at rates nobody could get on the open market.

It’s one of the craziest schemes to pump RE anywhere and it shows how desperate the provincial government is to keep this show going.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Corrections from you and patriotz (below) accepted, these are very real benefits that accrue either only to home owners (or in some cases to home owners and a couple other narrow segments).

Because home ownership is deemed special and worthy of such support.

Right or wrong, we do create handout incentives for home ownership, something that seems particularly sad at a time where it’s the sector that seems to need the least amount of help.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Yes, she said ripple effect. She being the originator of a faddish hashtag and organizer of a shambles of a rally at the art gallery last year. In other words, about as credible an expert as vangrl.

Saul
Guest
Saul

Here comes our favourite tosser…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Saul, try posting about real estate for once. It doesn’t hurt, I promise.

crabman
Guest
crabman
Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Sell now or be priced out of that square foot in Ladner forever!

Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea

An American billionaire warned, “You show me a highly unequal society and I’ll show you a revolution or a police state.”
I am afraid Vancouver is becoming a HAVE and HAVE NOT state.

patriotz
Member

Of course Vancouver isn’t a state, it’s just a massively self-important city.

a-non-mouse
Guest
a-non-mouse

For all you going to open houses this weekend! 4 “expert” tips on how to win a bidding war:

1. Unconditional offer
2. Do your home inspection early
3. Write a personal letter
4. Appeal to the seller’s timeline

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/how-to-win-a-real-estate-bidding-war-in-metro-vancouver-1.2804164

Yunak
Member
Yunak

For locals the guide is incomplete, a few items missing before 1.

0. Rob the bank or Sell shitload of drugs or Marry Mainlander

space889
Member
space889

$$$ talks….low ball and don’t matter how well you do 1-4

patriotz
Member

You forgot you have to promise to feed the squirrels.

Ulsterman
Member

My colleague in work who is a regular on the open-house death march – or that’s how it feels to him as he contemplates spending up to a million on a PoCo home – follows these rules diligently. He recently bid $850,000 on a $799,000 asking price and of course was outbid. As soon as he mentioned it even I, the not-in-the-market-guy said, “What? Only 50k over? No chance mate, I’d have gone at least 100k over.” It sold for $923k so i guess my hot-market radar isn’t that far off.

Tiger
Guest
Tiger

Point Grey home sold for more than $1 million over its asking price.The house was listed mid-February for $7,888,000, and sold for $9,000,060 a week late.

We had 10 offers from Chinese families,” Park said. “I believe they all had Vancouver home addresses. A good half didn’t speak English at all well.”In the end, the house was purchased by a young Chinese couple with two children.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-over-asking-bellevue-point-grey-1.3476617

Yunak
Member
Yunak

It sounds like some horror story,. What a fuck up for everyone, local people being totally helpless and left behind and those others with incomprehensible amounts of money who are wondering around but hard to identify who they are and what are they about.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

typo, wondering should say wandering

space889
Member
space889

The article said 9 of those Chinese families have local addresses. So, what are you bitching about? Unless you believe there are different classes of locals?

It’s also stated it was bought by a family planning to rebuilt and live there. That’s not local enough for you?

patriotz
Member

Would that be the house someone mentioned in the previous thread – with no address – and which supposedly had a much smaller lot and no view? See why I think those addressless claims are just BS?

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
219
Sold
321

TI:8021

For weekly sales and/or new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhod and market segment can be quite different.

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea

Thank you Paul. The market is on FIRE. I can no longer finger CMHC or low interest rate for Vancouver Housing. The main contributor is HAMs from China as 1 trillion dollars has left china in 2015 and a lot of it has ended up in our housing.

voter
Guest
voter

No it’s mostly local’s ,just ask Christy and her merry band of realturds.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

I don’t think we are far form the situation where police will have to guard open house events and protect those bidders and buyers.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

I wouldn’t mind seeing some “Open House Massacre” news stories.

The only good locust is a dead locust.

space889
Member
space889

No outrage from board members about BPOM advocate violence and murder? No, off course, cuz it’s only mainland chinese…it’s not like they are humans….

But switch the target to locals and suddenly everyone is up in arms. Double standard much?

Sarin
Guest
Sarin

“it’s not like they are humans….”

No, they’re locusts

space889
Member
space889

And your proof and evidence is??? Oh wait, bears don’t need that kind of pesky things to prove their point.

p123
Guest
p123

I think a lot of it is still locals. Langley has homes with 11 bids that get sold in a couple of days. I don’t imagine it’s HAM buying out there. The higher end homes are most likely HAM.

It has to do with HAM in a sense that people feel priced out, if they don’t buy something now they think they’ll never be able to buy. Hence all the bidding wars.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Don’t be a fool. Foreign money is buying everything.

space889
Member
space889

So yes, it’s all HAM fault to bears….any injustice they feel, it’s HAM’s fault.

patriotz
Member

Well the Manson murders had to do with the Beatles in a sense. Whose fault were they?

50 Cent
Guest
50 Cent
p123
Guest
p123

Why the heck are people paying 10 mil for 65 X 110 foot home here. Insane, if I had 10 mil I would buy in the states something much better.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Because Vancouver will be an Asian city. No room for whites in future. Wait and see.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Because it is place where peasants and scum without connections can launder money, everyone who can’t do it in the first-tier cities is more than welcome to do their shit here.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Going to put in an unconditional offer tomoro about 3% above asking on a detached house in Surrey. I know it’s crazy but the powers that be are going to flood metro Vancouver with Asians and Indians.

So here goes. Money goes from portfolio to dead money.

Should not have sold the north delta home a year ago. Sigh

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Good luck. Let us know how it goes.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

To stop this, join an anti immigration organization. I know some are racist but enough is enough.

This is about your families and kids futures. There is no way I’m letting the gov dictate my life. Join an anti-immigrant movement. And don’t hate. I’m Indian myself.

voter
Guest
voter

Ten years to late ,it’s over for all you gwai los,move to Prince George or some other shithole and keep your complaints to yourself.

voter
Guest
voter

Also ,wait until Trudeau announces the new child benefit you’re going to see population boom and house prices even higher.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Housing ‘the elephant in the room’ as Bank of Canada decision looms”, BNN video http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/4/Housing-the-elephant-in-the-room-as-Bank-of-Canada-decision-looms.aspx “A generation of Canadians crying foul over unaffordable home prices shouldn’t count on the Bank of Canada to ride to the rescue any time soon.” “Governor Stephen Poloz wields a fairly blunt instrument when it comes to reining in housing – the overnight target rate. Still, the bank recognizes its loose monetary policy has played an important role in fueling the Vancouver and Toronto buying frenzies.” “Poloz will make a rate decision this coming Wednesday, and many economists say rising interest rates will be the real test for these housing markets.” ““Eventually (housing) will be a factor prompting the Bank to begin raising rates, probably in 2017,” Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, told BNN in an email. However, Porter warns housing alone won’t keep… Read more »
wwwww
Guest
wwwww

Remember when people used to blame the insane price appreciation on the CMHC? Now that so many houses in Greater Vancouver are ineligible for CMHC lending because they are over $1 million, and price appreciation has accelerated, it’s clear that those people were WRONG!

patriotz
Member

A great number of buyers of million+ houses are trading up from less expensive properties.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Exactly. One of the other major fallacies perpetuated by the fools who occupy this blog is that all sale are to first time buyers with 5% down, completely ignoring the move-up buyer.

p123
Guest
p123

It’s the low interest rates. If you look at Paul’s numbers before the 2 interest rate cuts last yr. Sales were a hundred or sub hundred a day then after the 2 interest rates sales shot up to 200-300 sales per day.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

Typically 80% of the 40-50k homes sold in Metro Vancouver are below $1 million.
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-publications-archive/2015-06-foreign-buyers-research-report.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Sotheby’s stats on luxury home sales, in past years, have shown that + $ 3 million home sales amount to around 5%-7% of all home sales in metro.

All the media make a big thing about these luxury home sales, but they actually amount to a small % of all sales.

But the propaganda keeps the 80% of sales below $ 1mil going, driving the market with folks maxing their debt to keep from being ‘priced out’. – sales that have been little effected by the new CMHC polices.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
wwwww
Guest
wwwww

Vancouver’s an Asian city. We don’t have a bubble, we have bubble tea. And the bubbles in bubble tea don’t pop. Especially the ones made in China because the Chinese use plastic instead of tapioca.

franko
Member
franko

As long as the filthy cash from China continues to pour in, why would local boomers want to sell now when they know their properties will be worth more next month, and local first timers will continue to get sucked in by extending themselves to the hilt.
If Justin had the brains and if McCallum had the balls to stop the insanity, listings would surge to a flood within 2 weeks, and the rout would be on.

FEDup
Guest
FEDup

Very true. I have spoken to countless boomers and older who absolutely do not want to sell as they would lose out on the “guaranteed ” massive upcoming price increases. And really. . They are in no hurry. No mortgage and paid 1/20th of house “value” today.

Ulsterman
Member

And in all probability they are right. Based on the past 15+ years the odds are in their favour. Hold on for another 12 months and probably make another 2-4k/week tax free on their SFH. Not too shabby. Of course the arse could fall out of the market, but then again, who’d be daft enough to make THAT bet?

FEDup
Guest
FEDup

A lot of interesting comments on Zero Hedge regarding this Vancouver price run up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04/ridiculous-joke-abandoned-rotting-vancouver-house-listed-72-million?page=3

FEDup
Guest
FEDup

FWIW. I think it’s pretty obvious these are Chinese non arms length transactions at this point. Bidding up between family and friends to clean money and/or show increased value back home. Price inconsequential and no relationship with local economy. It is mostly concentrated in areas of west side and Richmond. However the mania has spread so now locals who afraid of being priced out are overextending themselves in suburbs like maple ridge. BC guv could stop this in a heartbeat. But they won’t.

patriotz
Member

“I think it’s pretty obvious these are Chinese non arms length transactions at this point. ”

Why are they listed then?

franko
Member
franko

They are listed as a smokescreen to hide the intent and to escape accusations of flipping.

FEDup
Guest
FEDup
FEDup
Guest
FEDup

Btw , the obviously local guys comment at e end is the vid when the reporter contacts him is priceless. A must listen!

franko
Member
franko

The time could come when folks start looking for locust exterminators outside of Ottawa and Victoria, and it won’t be pretty.
Crusty might be shrewd enough to change her stripes just to save her ass, but Justin is too preoccupied with trivial bullshit to know or care what is happening in Vancouver.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Garth Turner is losing more credibility by the day with his HAM denying. When presented with article after article and fact after fact he just calls his guests ‘racists’. Some Chinese bids a million dollars over asking for a Pt. Grey house and he says they are Canadians of Asian origin. Where does a young Chinese couple with 2 kids come up with NINE MILLION DOLLARS to buy a teardown house? Many of the other Chinese bidders could not speak English. That guy is delusional. He also said USD going to 1.50 Canadian… never happened. Someone called him out on this and he ignored their post. He is a clown.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

What facts?

Saul
Guest
Saul

Pianist playing one hand solo… life must be good on Saturdays.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Oh my, I have a stalker. How cute.

Bubble Tea
Guest
Bubble Tea

Scary fact was that he was our finance minister.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Minister of National Revenue – not Finance.

😉

ostritch
Member
ostritch

In one of the news pieces covering this Pt Grey sale the agent said it was bought by locals. Since no one can ask, white local or Asian local, no one knows more than this.

Garth is therefore technically right. Just like he is right about housing correcting,and interest rates going up one day. In the meantime my well balanced portfolio is down this year while our RE is up. There must be a lot of people who would like to kick that guy in the shin.

Brian Ripley
Guest

I just updated my Double Double Chart with Feb-2016 data of Single Family Detached house prices in Vancouver:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html#Double

The recent trend shows that the bulls will hit the target this year or early next year.

FEDup
Guest
FEDup

Wow. According to your charts. MOI
Vancouver = 2
Calgary still low at 5
And Toronto at 1 month ?

FEDup
Guest
FEDup

Also would appear more than half of those AIrBnB rentals don’t get rented out

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Good Luck Oracle, I hope things work out for you.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Unbeatable talent and creativity…

http://youtu.be/i5gR8TmhGO8

wpDiscuz