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Friday Free-for-all! March 4th 2016

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153 Comments

The weekend is almost here and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our standard end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Unconditional offers the new normal
–$1 million over asking
–Bubbles bursting everywhere
–PC city councillor not PC
–New York vs Vancouver
–Kleptocracy Tour
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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bullwhip29

Vancouver buys Arbutus corridor for urban greenway, ending dispute with CP Rail
http://www.vancouversun.com/story_print.html?id=11768241&sponsor=true

“The greenway would include walking and cycling paths and space would be set aside for future light rail or street cars. Under the terms of the deal, any corridor land that city staff decide is not needed for the greenway can either be repurposed or sold. ”

>>> careful what you wish for people…

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space889

Coming to a public pool near you?? How would this affect RE prices? Especially with Libs gangho on bringing more and more….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-07/sexual-assaults-soar-swedish-swimming-pools

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Hyper-mega-Bull

we have our own issues at public pools.

Spitting mad with behaviour at Richmond pool

Regular at Minoru is fed up with other patrons bad habits and wants the City of Richmond to take action

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/spitting-mad-with-behaviour-at-richmond-pool-1.2161453

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bullwhip29

“regulars” wont be swimming there in the not too distant future; there is already a long waiting list for initial membership to new “private” sports club…anyway you get where i am going with this. not only will this town be too expensive to live in for average locals, they’ll be priced out of everyday services, amenities, schools and leisure activities we all take for granted at the moment. mark my words, there will be a day (very likely in my lifetime too) where places like spanish banks, kits beach, endowment lands etc will all be privately owned and therefore off limits. i also suspect it is only a matter of “when”, not “if” something happens to portions of stanley park, which is a certifiable gold mine yet to be tapped.

http://www.richmond-news.com/business/patrick-chan-skating-school-to-be-part-of-new-private-athletic-club-1.1943195

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HAMster

I agree Garth Turner is as bad as any lying real estate agent and he should be charged with fraud. He says an investment adviser cannot state how much a portfolio can generate but then he comes up with 7% where does he get that? He was also very wrong on interest rate increases where he said rates would be going UP when in fact rates are going DOWN. His “advice” is always WRONG. Do the opposite of what Garth says and you will be ahead.

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space889

Investment advisor can’t PROMISE a return to any client. However, they are allowed to give an expected return based on accepted methods like historical average return, with disclaimers like past is not guaranteed to repeat in the future.

The 7% came from historical average 10% equity and 5% or 6% fixed income returns combined at 60/40 constant asset mix. Only really valid if you have like 20+ investment horizons and still fairly hypothetical.

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David Lee

I’m interested to hear the comments from the bulls and those who think “it’s different here ” on this one:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canada-revs-up-hunt-for-foreign-flows-into-torrid-housing-market/article29045442/

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space889

And likely very few resulting persecutions on tax evasion.

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GreenSalad

They are finally “revving” up their hunt, eh?
Wow….ya think just maybe?
………by the year 2030

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bubble tea

Don’t forget to get the real identity of owner of companys thats been buying up Canadian Real Estates. Should have done that at the first place.

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Yunak

This will be a tough investigation for Canadian institutions. Those gangsters, fraudsters and money launderers are well organized and relatively powerful at the same level as Cartels compared to money turnover. This kind of investigation would be more appropriate and suitable for FBI/CIA type of organizations with strong logistics and trained operatives in the field. Government and legal institutions appears to not understand that country is under specific attack that could substantially damage Canada concerning economy and sovereignty.

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Oracle

Regarding Garth:

Can he be criminally charged? He has openly promoted 7% annual returns on his portfolio yet highly unlikely that was realized. At the same time, he conned vulnerable seniors by convincing them to sell their Vancouver homes because there is no foreign influence.

That is fraud. Like Madoff.

This guy should be sent to jail.

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space889

Send a complaint to the OSC with screenshots of his blog posts where he stated that you can get 7% without risk. However, I’m not really holding out any hope there will be any actions against him given how toothless and gentle most of these regulators tend to be.

As well, he could also claim that 7% is returned from his model 60/40 portfolio and not a promise to any client. So it’s a legal gray area.

But regardless, I thought many bears have stated that they can easily get 10% return with no risk easily? Some have even posted their own trades/investments. So why are you doubting this number?

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Oracle

Fix the damn bug on this site. It autocorrects words wrongly after you hit the submit button.

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Oracle

Vancouver will have a caste system. Those with houses are the elected class. They will have the silos able classes. Immigrants without houses will adapt..they came from a world like that and will exploit loopholes to get more than they give.

I really feel bad for the local raised without houses. They will be the slave class. Already there are girls selling their bodies to lay the rent. They haven’t been exposed to that Type of world. Wives will have to be sold to pay the upcoming rent increases.

It’s what you get for not fighting for your rights.

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No Money Down

Just rewatched “How to Change the World”, a documentary about Bob Hunter and the early days of Greenpeace. Some really nice footage of early Greenpeace campaigns, hippies, Jericho Beach, False Creek, West End…

Left me feeling a just little melancholy and what has been lost in this city.

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FEDup

Vancouver was truly something special then. Money did not rule. Humanity did. And social groups were connected not solely on net worth. House prices. …A non discussion.

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space889

You mean a bunch of moron groups that can’t see the contradictions of their own views and reality? Where do you think gas will come from if oil drillings are stopped in North America, and we don’t allow oil tankers? From magic faery dust?

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MarKoz

Why is 2016 different than 2008?
In January 2008 the affordability of a 2 floor SFH in Van was at 75%. http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/pdf/20080124affordability.pdf
The market was slowing and in March it started to dive. The financial crisis did not hit until September.
Now, in 2016 the affordability rating has hit 109% and the market is on fire.
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/reports/rbc-housing-affordability.html

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Combat-roach

In 2008 locusts and roaches didn’t go nuclear, now is an apocalypse with full support from the local allies.

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FEDup

Vancouver to be the prime example of class inequality in the developed world.
Sad really.

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FEDup

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/hong-kong-residential-sales-plunge-70-as-slowdown-intensifies

So HK purposely slowing their bubble down. Soooooo…New Wesr now instead of HK? 😉

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Tiger

The Chinese own Vancouver and soon their probably going to try to buy all of BC

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Combat-roach

Logically at that point some Trump will start sending them back with expired return policy.

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GreenSalad

Debtor days are over as BIS calls time on world credit binge
The world’s credit boom is beginning to show dangerous signs of unraveling, ushering in a period of fresh turmoil for the over-indebted global economy, the Bank of International Settlements has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/04/debtor-days-are-over-as-bis-calls-time-on-world-credit-binge/

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voter

How does lowering the cost of borrowing increase the inflation rate ? It seems to be working in the opposite direction as it would if you lowered your wage.The only winners are corporations borrowing more money to get even bigger.

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GreenSalad

@ voter
Finance 101 night school 4 U

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FEDup

Voter. This might help explain it. Essentially. Low interest rates = more borrowing = more spending = higher prices = inflation.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/inflation/inflation3.asp

GS. Be nice. :).

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patriotz

“The only winners are corporations borrowing more money to get even bigger.”

The opposite is true in fact, corporations are sitting on cash and not making capital investments due to lack of demand.

In Canada it’s the consumers who’ve been doing the borrowing.

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Best place on meth

Someday, historians will refer to the invasion of the lower mainland by hundred of thousands of criminals and scammers from China as “The Rape of Vancouver”.

Krusty will go down as the worst traitor in Canadian history.

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wwwww

I wonder how they’ll see the apologists and deniers.

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Best place on meth

With luck they’ll see them swinging from trees.

“Hey, is that Garth up there?”

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crazy

Will anyone attend?

http://davidebymla.ca/event/1324/

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Loon

New West home sells for 700k over asking, a new WTF moment:

http://www.newwestrecord.ca/news/queen-s-park-home-sale-historic-in-new-west-1.2190025

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Combat-roach

“She estimated 80 per cent of people attending her New West open houses are from mainland China.”

These fuckers are unstoppable like super resistant cockroaches. Now they go on whatever is out for sale.

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FEDup

2mill for a crackhouse in crackland. Now just silly

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Oracle

So this past week I was in the company of BC NDP people behind the scenes. Talk turned to housing and China. They were all upbeat about money inflows. They were all significantly invested in Real Estate via numbered companies.

BC Libs or BC NDP. This party won’t end for a very very long time.

My guess is rents are going to skyrocket as soon as people realize they are shut out from housing market. There will be a run on good rental places.

Hate to say it but this is going to be true.

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FEDup

I guess when it’s your regions only real industry.

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FEDup

Perused through the Airbnb listings. Lots. If any of these get booked for even part of time owner making pretty big $$. I am guessing no one claiming that to cra. Does make it tough for legimate landlords who do pay taxes. Cra needs to crack down on those. Easy to trace. There are just so many things wrong with this government. I’ve never voted ndp. I just might.

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Best place on meth

Coming soon to a mandarin-only strata council near you:

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-elevator-trapped-starve-death-20160305-story.html

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OpenCourse

Mr. Ottawa, they jostled each other to the point of recklessness over China’s pension benefit worth approximately C$300 per year, do you still believe that they are not here for our OAS+GIS+CPP, universal healthcare and etc.?

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1920098/video-nasty-angry-chinese-tourist-shown-threatening-kill-tour

http://www.ejinsight.com/20160226-brawl-at-japan-airport-gets-more-bad-rap-for-chinese-tourists/

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patriotz

New York City house under USD$500,000

Mortgage $2K/month, taxes $3183.89/year. From NYT article.

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No Money Down

Staten Island…

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Ulsterman

The point is that regular people can live 20-30km away from Manhattan and find affordable housing. This is like living in Port Moody except here houses start at $1m. Look at many of “burbs” of NYC and you’ll see SFH’s well within the reach of the worker drones who cross the bridges and tunnels to get to work in the city.

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Oracle

HAMSTER: yes, Garth Turner deceives people. He recently bought another rental unit in Hamilton. He has a small portfolio of real estate now. He will turn around and say the rule of 90 BS. If he truly thought RE was going down , he wouldn’t be buying these last few years.

With regards to my buying, I wa stood at ALL open houses to write an offer without conditions. Walked away. Most buyers were Indians. They know HAM is real and aren’t deceived like white people by people like Garth.

Money is his GOD. That guy has no shame deceiving people.

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ostritch

Hamilton aye? Isn’t that funny. It’s the market where all the money that can’t afford central TO is escaping to.

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Tiger

THIS IS I WROTE TWO DAYS AGO, GUESS WHAT IT GOT DELETED
———————
Garth are still going to deny about Chinese purchaser in Vancouver?

YOU CAN DENY TLL THE COWS COME HOME BUT THE TRUTH IS RIGHT HERE

9 MILLION TEARDOWN

Point Grey home sold for more than $1 million over its asking price.The house was listed mid-February for $7,888,000, and sold for $9,000,060 a week late.

We had 10 offers from Chinese families,” Park said. “I believe they all had Vancouver home addresses. A good half didn’t speak English at all well.”In the end, the house was purchased by a young Chinese couple with two children.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-over-asking-bellevue-point-grey-1.3476617

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Bill

Garth Turner is schill for the banks. He promotes bank investment. In my books he has no credibility.

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GreenSalad

‘Insane, that’s the best word to describe the Australian housing market:’ Renowned expert predicts the mortgage bubble will burst and property values will plunge by 30 to 50 PER CENT

Young couples and families have already begun to look down the barrel of bankruptcy as they fail to meet their monthly repayments

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3457077/Insane-s-best-word-Australian-housing-market-Renowned-expert-predicts-mortgage-bubble-burst-property-values-plunge-30-50-CENT.html

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voter

Great then we can buy your gwai lo properties for fifty cents on the dollar ,it’s going according to plan comrades

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wwwww

>mortgage bubble will burst and property values will plunge by 30 to 50 PER CENT

So prices are going to go back to 2014 levels?

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Ulsterman

Sadly you’re right. Even with a 50% correction Vancouver houses would still be too expensive. Bears lost this war, no matter how much them claim to have made with their incredible stock timing prowess.

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Yunak

Alternative theories… “How far could prices fall back here? MacBeth thinks that the national peak-to-trough decline could be in excess of 40 percent, with Vancouver’s drop being even bigger. “Every bubble bursts, and they all burst to the degree that gets the prices all the way back to the original trend line that was in place before the bubble formed. If we assume that this bubble started to form in 2000 or 2001, then house prices would have to go back to that trend line.” And while such apocalyptic forecasts are countered by claims that “it’s different here,” MacBeth isn’t buying it. “The price gains in Regina, Saskatchewan, have been just as outrageous as Vancouver, British Columbia. The price to income ratios aren’t as stretched, but the percentage gains from ten years ago are just as big. And I don’t… Read more »

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Jack

You only lose when you buy in….you sound like a troll now

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p123

Haven’t they been predicting an Australia crash for as long as we thought Vancouver housing was in a bubble?

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Yunak

Unbeatable talent and creativity…

http://youtu.be/i5gR8TmhGO8

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HAMster

Good Luck Oracle, I hope things work out for you.

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Brian Ripley

I just updated my Double Double Chart with Feb-2016 data of Single Family Detached house prices in Vancouver:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html#Double

The recent trend shows that the bulls will hit the target this year or early next year.

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FEDup

Wow. According to your charts. MOI
Vancouver = 2
Calgary still low at 5
And Toronto at 1 month ?

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FEDup

Also would appear more than half of those AIrBnB rentals don’t get rented out

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