Friday Free-for-all! April 14th 2016

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Eby on Real Estate Fraud
Affordable Housing Program
Nothing free-market about boom
Concord Pacific buys Molson land
Gentle jaw-boning for looney
Southseacompany on YouTube
Tricks of the trade
Millennials scramble before priced out
Downgraded growth for Canada
Your parents made money, you won’t
Poloz stuck in corner?
Research Chair escapes from UBC
Harsher penalties needed?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
paulb
Member

New
466
Sold
212
TI:8446

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Molotov cocktail may have caused Richmond apartment fire

RCMP probing cause of No. 3 Road blaze on Sunday night as residents claim it was second incident in a week

Residents of the apartment claim this is the second time in a week that the building has been targeted, adding that a smoke bomb was let off and offensive graffiti was found.

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/molotov-cocktail-may-have-caused-richmond-apartment-fire-1.2233660

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Vancouver is “reimagined” as a city in Asia in this stunning photo series

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/04/i-went-to-asia-for-a-day-photo-series-vancouver/

realist
Member
realist

You don’t need much imagination to see Vancouver as an Asian city. You just need the lesser ability of applying a little extrapolation…the Singapore of the North Pacific.

patriotz
Member

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/canadian-confidence-in-housing-soars-to-highest-since-2014/article29664049/

The number of Canadians with an upbeat view of the housing market has increased to the highest in 18 months, weekly polling shows.

The share of respondents who believe local housing prices will rise in the next six months increased to 39.4 per cent in the week ended April 15, according to polling by Nanos Research Group, from 38.3 per cent the previous week. The share of respondents who see lower prices declined to 16.6 per cent from 17.1 per cent, the lowest since November.

And there you have it. The more people think that prices are going up, the more people want to buy at current prices. The song remains the same.

sox
Guest
sox

Hebei province, birthplace of chopped-up victim at Million$ house in British Properties.
~ Bulldozer gladiators ~ coming to Vancouver soon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrtnIImGipg

voter
Guest
voter

I like it .Thats what we need here some passion for your work.

bulyx
Guest
bulyx

Any thoughts of on local buyers who bought a house in the burbs cheap ($200-300K) and are cashing out high ($800K-1M) and using that equity to put down on housing closer to the city ?

I don’t know if this is common scenario or not, but it would certainly be a way to come up with a big wad of cash for something in East Van/Bby.

Thoughts?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

overwhelming majority doing the complete opposite. a reasonably nice middle of the road mcmansion style home in maple ridge (suitable for family of 4-6 ppl) is maybe $700-800k. in richmond these go for well over $2M. forget about moving into vanc directly

bulyx
Guest
bulyx

I agree that there are lots that bought condos in E.Van/Bby and are cashing out to buy houses in the Surrey/Langley.

I’ve talked to a few folks around town that seem to be doing the opposite, these are older couples that bought way out in the early 2000s and are now in the process of trying to get closer to family as parents age.

I know it seems counterintuitive but it could explain (a small)part of the buying insanity going on.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

China Bans Rich Kids From TV So They Can’t Embarrass Their Parents or the State
http://time.com/4297249/china-tv-wealthy-elite-fuerdai-guanerdai-wealthy-rich-kids-corruption/
… so they can come here and be on Ultra Rich Asian Girls of Vancouver and flaunt their corrupt wealth. What a F*** up place Vancouver is.

jzc
Guest
jzc

I hope people posting about Wanting and the mayor knows this fact:
Wanting’s mom, a Chinese official, is in Chinese jail for corruption.

Wanting’s $1 million USD investment money to a US startup company was returned due the fact the money may be tainted.

crabman
Guest
crabman

The PRC went after Wanting’s mom as leverage, so she would continue being a good commie and influence Gregor the way they want her to.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

i had no idea about the startup. did this make the news, and is there a link?

jzc
Guest
jzc

Sorry for the mix-up. This is another daughter of corrupted Chinese official hidding in Vancouver, who tried to invest $1 million in US.

Linda Ching is the daughter of Michael Ching, one of the 100 wanted officials. Suspected of corruption, he fled to Canada via Hong Kong in 2000. His daughter is chair of the Young Liberals of Canada in British Columbia.
According to Southern Weekly, Ching owns many properties in Vancouver and has ingratiated himself with Canadian politicians. He is exceptional among his peers in the sense that he maintains a fairly active public life.

jzc
Guest
jzc
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

TRUMP STARES DOWN CHINA: ‘They Have Waged Economic War Against Us’…

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/17/trump_im_so_happy_china_is_upset_with_me.html

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“Because we can’t continue to get ripped off like we’re being ripped off.”

Got it, that’s exactly how they function at all levels.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Alberta property markets could be a buying opportunity, but maybe not yet”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-market-psychology-1.3537384

“Normally, economic theory tells us that when things get cheaper, we buy more. When things become more expensive, we buy less. In the property market, that often turns upside down.

“There’s a lot of herd behaviour here. We behave like cattle,” said Oxoby, a professor at the University of Calgary.

“People see the prices going up, and they go, ‘Oh, shit, I better buy a house now before it gets worse.'””

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Pattie Lovett-Reid: Fear trumps reason in Canada’s hottest real estate markets”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/4/18/Pattie-Lovett-Reid-Fear-trumps-reason-in-Canadas-hottest-real-estate-markets-.aspx

“While there are many factors contributing to the hot markets — immigration, demographics, foreign interest supported by a low dollar — there is also another influencer, fear.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

it’s funny that after all the endless pumping of RE by the msm you get comments like this suggesting the average joe out there is maybe not thinking rationally.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Australia’s Housing Market Cracks”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-11/australia-s-housing-market-cracks

“Median house prices have fallen 6 percent from a year earlier in state capital cities and new home sales dropped 5.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since July 2014”

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Blogger contributor. Garbage article, means nothing.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“China’s house prices surge as efforts to cool market fall flat”, Financial Times

https://next.ft.com/content/6a04b5fa-0517-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730

“The main reason for the uncontrolled price rises is the monetary easing of the past two years, according to Rosealea Yao of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research group. The People’s Bank of China has been cutting its benchmark interest rates since 2012, making mortgage-lending cheaper.”

““When you create a lot of liquidity, it flows to the hottest markets,” said Ms Yao, who suspects easy credit and property speculation have stoked sharp price rises.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Emerging Markets Brace for Fed Interest-Rate Rise”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/emerging-markets-brace-for-fed-interest-rate-rise-1460909103

“Emerging-market finance ministers and central bankers, who gathered in Washington in recent days for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings, said they were bracing themselves for renewed financial volatility. Economists expect another move from the Fed in mid-June.”

crabman
Guest
crabman

All that time spent voting down comments. Great job commie idiots, it’s really making a difference!

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

That’s considered being productive by party standards.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Petr Pospisil is an educator, musician, union and social organizer. He studied genetics at UBC and co-created crackshackormansion.com.

Lol, a real expert.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Yet another shill, his piece is stolen from some of Renie’s marketing brochures. If not grammatically right it could be almost written by some of the assholes who frequents this blog in effort to piss bears and promote shitholle.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

What’s your first language, Combat?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Afrikaans, why do you ask?

voter
Guest
voter

Mao was right.

voter
Guest
voter

I knew those dummies wouldn’t know how to vote on that comment,they don’t even know they’re own history ,all as they know is house , house ,house.

vangrl
Member
vangrl
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Higher interest rates, slower growth may be part of Canada’s new normal”, Globe & Mail

http://newsalberta.ca/2016/04/17/higher-interest-rates-slower-growth-may-be-part-of-canadas-new-normal/

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Li Zhao, the West Vancouver man charged in the horrific butchering of a Chinese mining tycoon, may have registered a $14,000 donation to the B.C. Liberals just days after the crime.
Way to go Cristy, you traitor.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

With communist chinese crooks throwing so much money at the BC Libs, Krusty could stay in power forever.

As a consequence, BC becomes increasingly corrupt and ends up controlled by china.

The future looks grim for the best place on earth.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Ain’t you sometimes felling extremely retarded of taking part as a citizen in this city?

Wanting Qu, Gregor Robertson Show Off Their Dorky Katy Perry Impression
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/17/wanting-qu-gregor-robertson_n_9715194.html

realist
Member
realist

Well summed up in the comments section by two words: “embarrassing” and “cringeworthy”. If I’m in need of feeling grateful about something today, it might be “Thank God I’m not a social studies teacher and have to explain to a class of children why Mr. G. Robertson and Mr. R. Ford are granted the honorific title of “Your Worship”!

sox
Guest
sox
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

random douche bags taking selfies and trying to rub shoulders with the who’s who of vancouver (and daughter of a jailed criminal)

sox
Guest
sox
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
To add a little more detail: There are ~688k single individuals that can afford to pay a 4.5% interest, 25 yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income (includes all sources of income). There are ~1.75M single individuals that can afford to pay a 2.5% interest, 30yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income. There are ~2.2M single individuals that can afford to pay a 2% interest, 30yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income. Now … how do ~100k people bringing their offshore money into the country compare to ~1.75M and 2.2M Canadians that all of a sudden have access to $500k mortgages? I dislike high prices as much as anyone around here… and I really want to make sure I understand what are the underlying causes of these increases – so educated… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Do we really need to rehash the pointless theory that it must be one or the other?

Really? It’s obviously a combination of locals and offshore chinese money.

Those 4.5% interest rates were eons ago, so why has there been a sudden surge in buying in the last year when interest rates have barely moved?

You think that’s all locals? You think the 100,000 chinese bringing in money and buying at $3 million price points are irrelevant?

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

According to Sotheby’s stats published every year, home sales over $ 3million amount to about 5%-7% of all the 40k-50k sales in Metro Van.

Rich people buying the top few percent of homes is nothing new and the marginal buyer is the real influence on prices, anyway.

What is new is that the world money supply has doubled over the last decade due to central bank easing policies. This is unprecedented in history. Whether you are local or HAM, poor or rich, the money in your hand is worth less than it was 15 yrs ago in relation to assets. Who’s buying is not the issue, the fact that the money they are using has been devalued by central bankers is the issue. Don’t look to the effect – look to the cause.

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
I agree it’s both. That’s why I want both to be presented. But emotions drive the news – and simple, easy to latch on escape goats are fleeced alive by our collective mind. Point in case “shadow flipping” – this is not new phenomenon and it will have no effect on the unaffordability problem – but it elicits an instinctive sense of outrage that can easily be projected onto someone. Unfortunately these raw emotions rarely address the main problem – in fact they weaken our strength to deal with it. Similarly the foreign investors issue. An analogy – if you many – is that the local’s debt is an elephant and the foreign investors are a lion. Yeah everyone is afraid of a lion – it’s easy to tell that it’s dangerous – and everyone is shrieking to do something… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“Can someone remind me by how much the Australian’s foreign money controls cool their market?”

Oz’s “controls” on foreign money simply specify that it has to be used to buy “new” properties, which include redevelopment of non-residential or tearing down an old residential and buying a new one. In other words, they allow the kind of foreign ownership which is causing controversy in Vancouver.

All indications are that foreign purchases of RE in Oz are a greater proportion of the market than in Canada, since the biggest cities comprise a greater % of the total population.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Amen! you nailed it.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Don’t worry about it but a loser is about to call you a “traitor”.

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller

I looked at how the interest rate and amortization period affect the number of people that can obtain a $500k mortgage and as far as I can tell dropping the interest rate from ~4.5% in 2003 to 2.3% (and lower) and increasing the amortization from 25 to 30 yrs has added over twice as many individuals to the pool of Canadian people that can purchase a property for $500k.

These results are for a single individual who does not spend more than 30% of their gross income on mortgage payments.

The plot is below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcddZCXLL9GpT0Zvc9DF3aykaW8YNf_iRv8EmZwlsxE/pubchart?oid=1298694418&format=image

I used the 2013 Canadian Income Distribution from statcan:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcddZCXLL9GpT0Zvc9DF3aykaW8YNf_iRv8EmZwlsxE/pubchart?oid=1889450833&format=image

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Any thoughts about buying in Victoria? Prices look to have been relatively flat.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This is why I don’t eat at chinese restaurants ANYWHERE in the world.

I just don’t trust them.

patriotz
Member

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35957232

According to this Chinese spent USD$52 billion on RE worldwide in 2014. What % of that do you think was in Vancouver? Notice the report doesn’t mention the city. By comparison total sales volume of REBGV in 2014 was CAD$27 billion, and that doesn’t include private sales, pre-sales, and south of the Fraser.

franko
Member
franko

There goes the neighborhood.

voter
Guest
voter

Now they`re ruining this blog also .

franko
Member
franko

How can that number possibly include all the dirty money that is smuggled out without any paper trail, that could be 5 times as much?
I’ll stick with the estimate from National Bank of one third off all Vancouver transactions.

patriotz
Member

Why should it include all the money leaving China? You think all the money is spent buying residential RE?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

#giveusdatabutonlyifitsupportsourprejudices ?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

#eatshitanddieyoufuckingtraitor

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Well, according to the map in the article, the answer would have to be, not very much. Mind you, you can probably buy half of France for the cost of a six bedroom house in Point Grey.