Friday Free-for-all! April 14th 2016

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Eby on Real Estate Fraud
Affordable Housing Program
Nothing free-market about boom
Concord Pacific buys Molson land
Gentle jaw-boning for looney
Southseacompany on YouTube
Tricks of the trade
Millennials scramble before priced out
Downgraded growth for Canada
Your parents made money, you won’t
Poloz stuck in corner?
Research Chair escapes from UBC
Harsher penalties needed?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canadian home sales hit record in March”, CTV News

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadian-home-sales-hit-record-in-march-1.2860495

“A record number of homes across the country were sold in March, although the Vancouver and Toronto markets saw declines from the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Friday.
The Ottawa-based group said about 60 per cent of all local markets showed an increase in transactions from February, including Edmonton, Calgary, Montreal and Victoria.
But sales in the Toronto area were down 1.8 per cent from February. The situation was slightly similar in Vancouver, where sales fell a more modest 0.3 per cent, but that contrasted with a national increase of 1.5 per cent.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Average house price in Canada jumps 15% to $508,567 in March”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-house-prices-march-1.3537143

“The average price of a Canadian home hit $508,567 in March, a jump of 15.7 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Great Leap? A little war of words on the West Coast”, Financial Post

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/colby-cosh-great-leap-a-little-war-of-words-on-the-west-coast

“On Wednesday, the NDP’s Mike Farnworth asked Liberal Premier Christy Clark in the assembly if she thinks “it’s fair the offshore speculators get first crack at homes that hard-working British Columbians are trying to save for and buy?””

“Her answer contained a little verbal grenade. “As the member knows,” she began, “people from around the world (live) in British Columbia, which is still a free market … until we make that great leap forward, we are still a capitalist society where people can invest from around the world.””

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Spoken like the true Maoist piece of shit that she is….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Clark saw the opportunity for useful semantic “reframing,” or, more likely, had it pointed out to her.”

Obviously it was the latter, she’s far to dumb to figure that out on her own.

It should be quite apparent to everyone by now that Comrade Clark sides with commie crooks over taxpaying Canadians and that “families first” is merely a slogan, as empty and worthless as she is.

She is absolutely and with a doubt, a traitor and should be in prison.

1234
Guest
1234

I would dispute Christy Clark’s assertion that we are a capitalist society…..not entirely…..and that is just the point. Our hard working middle class via taxes, supports a variety of social programs BUT is being ovrrtaken by globalist financial forces not weighed down by that. Hence the inability of (especially younger) local families to compete with their paycheques. An immature reference to Mao just insults the families in Vancouver fighting to find something affordable against global forces which she refuses to protect them from.

elvince
Guest
elvince

Did San Francisco’s housing market finally peak?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/14/real_estate/san-francisco-home-prices-drop/index.html

“Home prices in San Francisco declined last month for the first time in four years, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.

The median home price in the area dropped 1.8% in March from last year to $1.04 million. Last year, prices in the market averaged 15% growth.

“The sticker shock is wearing people down,” said Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist.”
….
Nationally, home prices increased 4.7% in March as sales ticked up 1% — the smallest rise in 16 months.

“This could mean that going forward, the strength in the housing market could shift away from the high-end superstar cities to the more affordable places with good economic growth,” said Richardson.

If even a real starn eventually burns off, what about a fake one?

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

wow, this is nuclear news of the day ! Not…
don’t worry about the “real one” as bears are even priced out of the “fake one ” long time ago.

geekinexile
Guest
geekinexile
The Bay area has 7 million people living with a real economy. Yes houses are expensive but there are lots of job opportunities. I am happy that our family moved from Vancouver last year, thanks to my American born wife (no kids). We could buy a condo, but if I lose my job, can I find a similar paying one to keep paying the mortgage? If we had a condo, and if we decide to upgrade to a bigger/better place, how would we do that because everything else is just as expensive in Vancouver. My salary surely doesn’t increase by 20% a year. Do I need to move further away from the city and commute in the rain and dark for 9 months of the year? One day, when we cash in everything and retire somewhere, where would it be… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

it’s awesome that you made it work in your favour and did not get into the RE craziness anywhere.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

2272 Million Dollar Jobs available in California on Indeed.com.
Wonder how many Million Dollar jobs are available in Vancouver.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Other than west side realtor, probably none.

space889
Member
space889
Cute Bears Cub: Pre-2008 – Housing is overvalued, interest rate too low. Not innocent cubs anymore: 2008 – 2010 – Home owners are moron, can’t wait for this bubble to burst so I can laugh at those stupid home owner’s misfortune in their faces, and kick them while they down. Oh yeah, I’m also going to buy their houses for a fraction of what they paid. Denial 2010-2012: Renting is so freaking cheap, I’m living the jet set life with all the luxury – traveling & big summer trips for my kids to enrich themselves, fancy restaurants, etc while my landlord is subsidizing my lifestyle and living in the basement. Their kids? While poor souls, never mind trips to Europe, they might not even have enough to eat in the fridge!! Why would I ever want to buy?!!? Now the… Read more »
Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

2000-2006: Dot. com crash/911 attacks – time to goose the pump, asset bubbles be damned
2006-2008: Holy Crap US bubble bursting. Bring in 0 down/40 year mortgages.
2009-2011: Bounce back. Yeehaw, We avoided the crash!
2011-2015: Whoa, this housing thing is getting hot, time to flatten it out a bit. Bring in 5 down/25 yrs.
2015: Oil crash – time to goose the pump, asset bubbles be damned. Van and TO go bat shit crazy.
2016: Stephen to Justin – no more from me, over to you.
2016+: ?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>2016+: ?

the fact that they have choosen to pump every time there is a problem (as you obviously understand) should give you a very big hint want policies are going to be implemented in the future.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

Here’s the big hint:

Monetary polices, that drive interest rates down, are no longer working.

Fiscal stimulus policies that put upward pressure on interest rates are being implemented.

New paradigm.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

“Terence Corcoran: Liberals go from Poloz to Summers”
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/terence-corcoran-from-poloz-to-summers

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

“How the Liberal win will affect interest rates, taxes and real estate”, Business in Vancouver

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/10/revamped-tax-system-increased-infrastructure-spend/

“The Liberals’ infrastructure spending plan could also have an impact on mortgage rates, Cooper said, if the government issues more bonds to pay for the expenditure.

“Given that the BoC isn’t going to cut any further, and if anything the yield curve will steepen,” Cooper said, “five-to-10 year yields will actually edge upward as investors realize that the supply of Canadian bonds is going to increase, and that means that mortgage rates will be stable to moderately higher over the next year.””

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

so you’re predicting an increase in interest rates? how many times have you made that same prediction and been wrong.

maybe this time’s different?

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

Interest rates go up and interest rates go down. Real estate prices go up and real estate prices go down. I doubt that it’s going to be any different.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

bears never put their money where their mouth is.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Patriotz shorted HCG.TO – does that count?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

i gave this a thumbs up.

Softy
Guest
Softy
According to Bloomberg, as picked up by the Vancouver Sun: Chinese investors expected to buy more Canadian real estate in 2011 http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/chinese-investors-expected-to-buy-more-canadian-real-estate-in-2016 Chinese investors are getting hungrier for real estate in Canada, where foreign demand has fueled record price gains and made million-dollar homes the norm in cities such as Vancouver. Inquiries for Canadian homes on Juwai.com, a property search engine that lists real estate around the world for Chinese buyers, jumped 134 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the Shanghai-based company. The figure tracks the total number of queries sent to the agent, developer, or seller of a Canadian property listed on the website. The increased interest indicates that Chinese investors may be seeking to move money abroad amid instability in the country’s economy and stock market, even as the government clamps down… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

Shanghai Avg $ / sq m = $24,000 CAD
Vancouver Avg $ / sq m = $4,000 CAD

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/vancouver-real-estate-website-gives-184338931.html

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i believe the population density of shanghai is approx 10X vancouver, so not an apples to apples comparison (well, at least not yet…lol)

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It’s really more of a locust to locust comparison, as the buzzing swarm continues to consume the lower mainland.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

While speaking of locusts… Can someone explain how one of “acceptable” excuses for their exodus to BC is need for their “kids and families” to escape pollution at home while here they all drive cars with the worst carbon footprint possible? Where else they plan to go once when they fuckup this place too?

Madashell
Guest
Madashell
In a shocking move likely to crush the US economy overnight, China is refusing to make its new gold-backed Yuan, convertible from or to US Dollars. The new Yuan will be introduced next Tuesday, April 19. When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to add the Yuan to the basket of world currencies used for Global Reserves and International Trade, they wanted China to make the Yuan more reliable as a currency. Since then, China has almost un-pegged its Yuan from the Dollar, allowing its value to fluctuate on world markets. But for years, China has been amassing huge amounts of gold bullion; some have said their appetite for bullion has been “staggering.” And with a new gold-backed Yuan to be issued next Tuesday, the entire world will have a choice of a new currency to use for international trade:… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Uh oh, somebody’s been reading a bit too much “alternative media”.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
218
Sold
190

TI:8231

http://www.paulboenisch.com

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Check out the new neon sign at the corner of Broadway and Granville. It feels intrusive.

patriotz
Member

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/15/high-prices-no-barrier-to-property-dreams-forum-poll.html

The vast majority of Torontonians, 89 per cent, believe housing is unaffordable in the city. But 20 per cent of those who rent still plan to put a foot on the property ladder this year.

The findings of a new Forum Research poll suggest that many of those buyers will be looking at new construction and bidding wars, because only 7 per cent of the city’s homeowners plan to sell.

Remember – in the RE market, supply and demand means how much housing someone wants to sell versus how much housing someone wants to buy. Not the total amount of housing versus total amount of households.

Rising RE prices in Vancouver and Toronto are the result of an increase in ownership preference.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

Looks like our voracious locust hackers have prevailed again.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

They shit their pants in excitement as soon as they saw the chance to hack again.
Such worthless people.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Pope, why did you have to bring back the downvote button?

You know how much the pro-china dirtbags love to hack it, it’s irresistable to them.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

What else to expect from the lowlifes? It is their nature to falsify, cheat, hack, forge, steal, fabricate, ruin…

crabman
Guest
crabman

They’re trying to influence opinion. They are all right, just in the opposite way they want. Not too bright, are they?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Giving the downvote button to these retards is like giving loaded guns to monkeys.
You just know that no matter what, the outcome won’t be good.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s House Prices Will Look Like This In 10 Years, If Trends Keep Up”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/16/canada-real-estate-projections_n_9648448.html

“In Vancouver, it takes $879,000 to upgrade from an average condo to a house today, but 10 years from now it will cost between $1.99 million and $4.05 million.”

“If you think these numbers are insane, you’re right. The point of this is not to scare you into rushing out and getting a huge mortgage before prices get any worse, it’s to illustrate that what’s going on in Toronto and Vancouver today can’t go on. If it did, things would get downright stupid.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“How sustainable is Canada’s hot housing market?”, BNN Video

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/real-estate-video/video-how-sustainable-is-canadas-hot-housing-market/article29643982/

“Canada’s housing market is hot, but is it sustainable? Bruce Joseph, Principal Mortgage Broker at Anthem Mortgage Group worries rising home prices and growing unregulated lending could eventually hit Canada’s housing sector.”

Totallyscrewed
Guest
Totallyscrewed
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
“China today, of course, has a somewhat similar situation as Russia: that is, a formerly Communist state whose deeply corrupt culture now masquerades as a quasi-capitalist society, having sold off former state assets to businesspeople who were required to line the pockets of those in a position of power to hand over those assets in the first place. In my opinion, anyone rich from Russia or China has almost certainly garnered their fortune through corrupt means, and one glance at the air or water of Beijing will tell you just how much the businessmen care about the environment or the people who have to wallow around in it.” Spot on. We have 10’s of 1000’s of these corrupt dirtbags here now. No doubt that most of them committed fraud on their applications to immigrate to Canada. They should be sent… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’ve been hearing a lot of different people say “everyone I know planning to sell this year” or words to that effect. It doesn’t look like that to me based on Paul’s numbers, but I don’t follow the numbers that closely. I think there used to be a link to a graph on this blog. Is that graph, or any graph showing units on the market, alive somewhere?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No, no graphs anymore since this blog turned into a safe haven for hate speech.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Oh yeah, I heard the same thing, people are scared, mortgage to the hill, bubble bursting, un employed etc…lot of people would sell soon and move to shelter under the burrard bridge.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

wow, look at the up vote! what does it mean to you? stupid bears are attracted to this kind of post! Good test!

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

Just returned from a walk a couple of blocks up from me in North Van to find 3 houses sold by New Stream Realty. They had all been listed for several months last fall and winter in the $2 mil plus range without any luck by local realtors (one of them a well known ex-hockey player). Two of the houses had 2 New Stream signs each with a bunch of Chinese writing that I assumed were from the listing and selling agent. I thought New Stream stuck pretty much to Richmond /Vancouver and was surprised to find them this far up the hill.

patriotz
Member

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35957232

According to this Chinese spent USD$52 billion on RE worldwide in 2014. What % of that do you think was in Vancouver? Notice the report doesn’t mention the city. By comparison total sales volume of REBGV in 2014 was CAD$27 billion, and that doesn’t include private sales, pre-sales, and south of the Fraser.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Well, according to the map in the article, the answer would have to be, not very much. Mind you, you can probably buy half of France for the cost of a six bedroom house in Point Grey.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

How can that number possibly include all the dirty money that is smuggled out without any paper trail, that could be 5 times as much?
I’ll stick with the estimate from National Bank of one third off all Vancouver transactions.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

#giveusdatabutonlyifitsupportsourprejudices ?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

#eatshitanddieyoufuckingtraitor

patriotz
Member

Why should it include all the money leaving China? You think all the money is spent buying residential RE?

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

There goes the neighborhood.

voter
Guest
voter

Now they`re ruining this blog also .

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This is why I don’t eat at chinese restaurants ANYWHERE in the world.

I just don’t trust them.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Any thoughts about buying in Victoria? Prices look to have been relatively flat.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller

I looked at how the interest rate and amortization period affect the number of people that can obtain a $500k mortgage and as far as I can tell dropping the interest rate from ~4.5% in 2003 to 2.3% (and lower) and increasing the amortization from 25 to 30 yrs has added over twice as many individuals to the pool of Canadian people that can purchase a property for $500k.

These results are for a single individual who does not spend more than 30% of their gross income on mortgage payments.

The plot is below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcddZCXLL9GpT0Zvc9DF3aykaW8YNf_iRv8EmZwlsxE/pubchart?oid=1298694418&format=image

I used the 2013 Canadian Income Distribution from statcan:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcddZCXLL9GpT0Zvc9DF3aykaW8YNf_iRv8EmZwlsxE/pubchart?oid=1889450833&format=image

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
To add a little more detail: There are ~688k single individuals that can afford to pay a 4.5% interest, 25 yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income (includes all sources of income). There are ~1.75M single individuals that can afford to pay a 2.5% interest, 30yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income. There are ~2.2M single individuals that can afford to pay a 2% interest, 30yrs amortization mortgage with less than 30% of their income. Now … how do ~100k people bringing their offshore money into the country compare to ~1.75M and 2.2M Canadians that all of a sudden have access to $500k mortgages? I dislike high prices as much as anyone around here… and I really want to make sure I understand what are the underlying causes of these increases – so educated… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Amen! you nailed it.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Don’t worry about it but a loser is about to call you a “traitor”.

patriotz
Member

“Can someone remind me by how much the Australian’s foreign money controls cool their market?”

Oz’s “controls” on foreign money simply specify that it has to be used to buy “new” properties, which include redevelopment of non-residential or tearing down an old residential and buying a new one. In other words, they allow the kind of foreign ownership which is causing controversy in Vancouver.

All indications are that foreign purchases of RE in Oz are a greater proportion of the market than in Canada, since the biggest cities comprise a greater % of the total population.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Do we really need to rehash the pointless theory that it must be one or the other?

Really? It’s obviously a combination of locals and offshore chinese money.

Those 4.5% interest rates were eons ago, so why has there been a sudden surge in buying in the last year when interest rates have barely moved?

You think that’s all locals? You think the 100,000 chinese bringing in money and buying at $3 million price points are irrelevant?

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
I agree it’s both. That’s why I want both to be presented. But emotions drive the news – and simple, easy to latch on escape goats are fleeced alive by our collective mind. Point in case “shadow flipping” – this is not new phenomenon and it will have no effect on the unaffordability problem – but it elicits an instinctive sense of outrage that can easily be projected onto someone. Unfortunately these raw emotions rarely address the main problem – in fact they weaken our strength to deal with it. Similarly the foreign investors issue. An analogy – if you many – is that the local’s debt is an elephant and the foreign investors are a lion. Yeah everyone is afraid of a lion – it’s easy to tell that it’s dangerous – and everyone is shrieking to do something… Read more »
Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

According to Sotheby’s stats published every year, home sales over $ 3million amount to about 5%-7% of all the 40k-50k sales in Metro Van.

Rich people buying the top few percent of homes is nothing new and the marginal buyer is the real influence on prices, anyway.

What is new is that the world money supply has doubled over the last decade due to central bank easing policies. This is unprecedented in history. Whether you are local or HAM, poor or rich, the money in your hand is worth less than it was 15 yrs ago in relation to assets. Who’s buying is not the issue, the fact that the money they are using has been devalued by central bankers is the issue. Don’t look to the effect – look to the cause.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Li Zhao, the West Vancouver man charged in the horrific butchering of a Chinese mining tycoon, may have registered a $14,000 donation to the B.C. Liberals just days after the crime.
Way to go Cristy, you traitor.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

With communist chinese crooks throwing so much money at the BC Libs, Krusty could stay in power forever.

As a consequence, BC becomes increasingly corrupt and ends up controlled by china.

The future looks grim for the best place on earth.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Ain’t you sometimes felling extremely retarded of taking part as a citizen in this city?

Wanting Qu, Gregor Robertson Show Off Their Dorky Katy Perry Impression
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/17/wanting-qu-gregor-robertson_n_9715194.html

sox
Guest
sox
sox
Guest
sox
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

random douche bags taking selfies and trying to rub shoulders with the who’s who of vancouver (and daughter of a jailed criminal)

realist
Member
realist

Well summed up in the comments section by two words: “embarrassing” and “cringeworthy”. If I’m in need of feeling grateful about something today, it might be “Thank God I’m not a social studies teacher and have to explain to a class of children why Mr. G. Robertson and Mr. R. Ford are granted the honorific title of “Your Worship”!

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