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Friday free-for-all!

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100 Comments

This is the day!

Time for our traditional Friday free-for-all post where we round up recent news and have our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–If I can do it, you can do it
–Casino crackdown
–Another Hollywood hater
–Vancouver stressful for millennials
–Why own and be in debt?
–All in for RE
–Cariboo deals with Vancouver invaders
–Affordability crisis
–

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes below and have an excellent weekend!

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southseacompany

“Housing Optimism Hits Two-Year High as Canadian Confidence Rises”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-09/housing-optimism-hits-two-year-high-as-canadian-confidence-rises

“The share of Canadians expecting home prices to increase in their neighborhoods over the next six months rose to 43.3 percent last week, the highest level since October 2014, polling for the Bloomberg Nanos Consumer Confidence Index shows. At the start of this year, just 30.6 percent believed home prices would increase.”

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southseacompany

“IMF Says Poloz Should Consider Rate Cuts If Economy Falters”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-09/imf-says-poloz-should-consider-rate-cuts-if-economy-falters

“Canada’s central bank should consider unconventional stimulus if an economy already weakened by low crude-oil prices is hit with another significant shock, according to the International Monetary Fund.”

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disgrace

No holding back here…. very open and lays the blame where it should be.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/foreign-buyers-crushing-home-dreams-vancouver-canada-b-133008569.html

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Best place on meth

Panama Papers names to be made public tomorrow

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/panama-papers-icij-database-names-public-1.3572138

Kim Marsh, a Vancouver-based expert on international financial crime who spent 25 years with the RCMP, said concerns over the anonymity of high-end property buyers in Canadian cities shows the issue cuts close to home.

“We only have to look at what’s happening in the property market in B.C., Toronto, elsewhere…. They don’t want their names associated with properties, so they’ll set up a nominee situation,” he said, referring to the registration of a corporation using a figurehead to disguise the real owners. “And there’s lots of controversy about that.”

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Newcomer (N)

Counted seven for sale signs on one block of Point Grey road this morning. Looks like the smart money is cashing in. It’s got to be hard to resist that kind of money.

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Zero Down Forty

40 to 50k sales in Metro each year so a sample of seven is hardly going to provide any informative insight.

In fact, there’s only around 10k listings right now, which is very low for this time of year. Peaks were around 18k in past years. Doesn’t appear that many owners cashing in right now.

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Newcomer (N)

Yeah, I wouldn’t suggest basing your retirement plan on what I saw on my jog this morning. I only mention it because it was seven out of twenty-four houses on one of the most desirable blocks in the city. Interesting. Nothing more.

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Shut It Down Already

MOI is under 1 for attached, and less than 3 for detached – that’s why they stopped talking about it here a long time ago.

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Newcomer (N)

Lots of people are selling, and lots are buying.

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Zero Down Forty

10k listings when spring listings are usually in the 15k-20k range means fewer are selling now than in past years. That is one of the factors driving prices – listings are tight right now.

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Shut It Down Already

“Lots of people are selling, and lots are buying.”

Shhhh, you’ll wake up patriotz.

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Madashell

From the Province: The Canadian and British Columbia governments are complicit in fuelling Vancouver’s housing crisis as foreign Chinese buyers continue to shut local residents out of the market, a new study says.
http://www.theprovince.com/touch/story.html?id=11905053&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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patriotz

Certainly foreign buyers are dominant in some high end districts, but local residents are not being shut out of the market metro wide at all. In fact many are increasing their exposure (you know, like buying a pre-sale without selling their current property). I do recognize the claim quoted is from the reporter not the study.

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123

Patriotz: Data please?

Christy doesn’t even have the data….so she says…..so what authority are you?

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Shut It Down Already

There’s sufficient stats about Canadian mortgages and debt to draw some pretty confident conclusions. It’s pretty simplistic to ask for a single number that defines the number of Canadian buyers.

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jim

Simplistic because it doesn’t suit you, Shut It Down Already?

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Best place on meth

https://youtu.be/ueNr7mfFZu8

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Runawayscreaming

One house saved from destruction by China.

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Best place on meth

>>>However, the Little Australia neighbourhood that is part of the University Endowment Lands does not allow massive home construction, says listing agent Evan Ho. Because of that limitation, some offshore buyers were turned off, he says. He received eight offers and of those, three were from offshore buyers who likely would have demolished the house, he says.

The Asian market tends to like to build a monster home, but the UEL has restricted the size and the above-grade [height] that you can build. The general rule is that you can’t go really high or exceed 2,650 sq. ft. <<<

For fucks sakes, is that all it takes to keep out the chinamen, just restrict the size of new builds?

This bylaw should be adopted city wide!

Gregor, get to it!

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98510

What is happening in island building in the South Sea is nothing more than an invasion of the south pacific by China, eerily similar to the Japanese invasion of the pacific during the 1930’s. This could quickly escalate into a time bomb. Meanwhile we are letting in millions of mainland Chinese without thinking about the consequences.

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Best place on meth

That’s why we need to build camps.

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Combat roach

Food is expensive. Big barges would be better, so they can take all those monster ugly houses with them back to China to brag with.

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Best place on meth

BC unemployment rate is lowest in Canada – for the first time ever.

Strange though, the graph showing the number of people employed looks suspiciously similar to the chart of Vancouver detached prices.

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/BC-employment-rate.jpg

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fosolo1

Yep this graph pretty much says it all.

BC , the real estate superpower of Canada. All time record high for amount of realtors in the GVRD. Now add in all the jobs that were needed to support this juggernaut… Builders, construction workers, lawyers, conveyancers, inspectors, stagers etc ,etc, etc.

What could prossibly go wrong? lol

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Vanco

What could go wrong? So far, it’s been priced out bears without a primary residence whining on VCI year after year. lol

Maybe this year will be different. It has to at some point, right?

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StupidityCheck

The smart bears are leaving.

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Newcomer (N)

Don’t forget the barista’s. Those home sales cover a lot of lattes.

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squeak

Upsetting, no kidding . It is tough to be a tax paying hardworking honest Canadian and trying damn hard to raise a child or two, expecially when half of your income goes to taxes and other “fees” and cannot afford to send your kids to prestigious exclusive (b/c of expense) private schools that prime the kids to go to higher education. Is this part of the dumming down process? Sad to see the money taken away from those that don’t have the money for private education. Education used to be the great equalizer, and now its power is being chipped away at by taking money away from the taxpaying honest Canadian’s kids education. When are Canadians going to stand up and say enough is enough? Who are the people that voted for “that girl”? Home/mortgage owners? Are the chickens coming… Read more »

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marble

These international students once they reach the age of 16, can file T2202 & T2202A to claim:
~ GST/HST credit, a tax-free quarterly payment of up to $250.
~ tuition fee credit (T2202A), with unlimited carry forward and transferable to spouse and children.
~ housing allowance, through submitting the rent receipts or property tax receipts (so long as the international student owns house(s) but are in the low-income group).

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Bestplaceonearth

There are publicly good schools that the children can go to. The success of the children do not depend entirely whether public or private schools, but partly to parenting as well. Privately schooling children is not a right and can’t blame politicians for it. Actually, private schools receive a lot less funding than public school, hence less tax burden on the tax payers.

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patriotz

Fallacious argument. Private schools (particularly the ones that cater to rich people like St. Georges) were around before they got any government funding. Also private schools are able to reject students with special needs, which shifts the overall burden to the public system.

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Best place on meth

Private schools should not be getting any tax dollars.

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YLTNboomerang

Hit enter too early:

Investment Thesis:

Canada has one of the most overvalued housing markets in the world and the Canadian economy is over-reliant on debt growth and the housing market. Both supply and demand will begin working against the housing market in 2015

http://spartanfunds.ca/LibertasRealAsset.aspx

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space889

Uhm…we are almost half way through 2016 now….

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StupidityCheck

Shut up you idiot.

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ChinaOne Swallows Dicks

Eat me dog shit for brains.

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paulb

New
213
Sold
282
TI:8237

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Loon

So pretty much most market segments and areas are up yoy 20-30%, anyone have any attempts at explaining this ?

I’ll start:

– Low loonie to cny
– Shanghai stock market boom

Any others ?

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Best place on meth

Billions flowing in from China and locals trying to keep up getting sucked into the market.

There’s really not much else to explain.

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BubbleTea

“The coming debt bust – It is a question of when, not if, real trouble will hit in China”
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21698240-it-question-when-not-if-real-trouble-will-hit-china-coming-debt-bust?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/thecomingdebtbust
The day of reckoning is coming to China and also Vancouver very soon.

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realist

From the above Economist article: “Most important, China must start to curb the relentless rise of debt…This will be tough…the task now is to avert something far worse.”

That “something far worse” is already underway is suggested by the following FT article: has China has entered the blow-off phase of its massive credit boom, with credit increasingly uncoupled from its own real economy?

“The biggest problem with China’s latest credit boom, charted”

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/05/05/2160929/the-biggest-problem-with-chinas-latest-credit-boom-charted/

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space889

So basically locals are morons?

Shut up you moron!

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Combat roach

Copycat or Chinese sense of creativity, a.k.a plagiarism…

StupidityCheck

Shut up you idiot.

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Best place on meth

The last time the chinese had an original idea was the 12th century.

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space889

The last time you had an original idea was?? Well…I’m guessing never.

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StupidityCheck

Shut up you idiot.

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space889

So you are copying me now??

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ChinaOne Swallows Dicks

I had a big dump today so I definitely copied you.

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ChinaOne Swallows Dicks

Eat shit ditch pig fuck wad

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Yunak

Optimism driven by fear and propaganda. The same mindset and feeling like one, when masses obsessively followed Adolf Hitler in his suicidal onrush.

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Shut It Down Already

Shanghai stock market up = mainlanders driving up Vancouver prices as they look for places to invest their profits.

Shanghai stock market down = panicking mainlanders driving up Vancouver prices as they look for for safer place to move their money.

Win-win!

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space889

*sigh* this is what happens when you try to dress up “It’s all Chinese fault!” in some kind of intellectual sound argument. The end result being a self-contradicting mess.

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space889

And anyways, all the smart bears have either left, or simply shut up and bought while keeping their mouth shut now in front of family. The remaining ones are simply knuckle heads who can’t admit that they were wrong. Nor the simple fact that life isn’t fair and no, you wouldn’t have everything handed to you just cuz you want it or feel you deserve it.

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StupidityCheck

Shut up you idiot.

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Shut It Down Already

Check yourself.

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Best place on meth

Roll over, Asshole!

Good boy!

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Bestplaceonearth

Admittedly the stupid idiot is right.

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Bear Vancouverite

Another report from the trenches. I visited a Townhouse presale event last weekend in South Surrey, near what is known as Morgan Crossing (appears to be some sort of strip mall development with all the usual big box stores). Before you get offended or attack me, I was visiting to get a feel for the distance and the price to distance to size value proposition for someone in my situation (DINK). I was attracted to check this development out because they listed prices starting at $399k for a smaller townhouse up to $589k for a 1700sq ft townhouse. It’s funny how such pricing can elicit enough interest to drive 50minutes to check out of curiosity. When I arrived and asked about what units were available, I was dismayed to find out that all the larger units were gone and some… Read more »

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Hyper-mega-Bull

people who are priced out have to live somewhere…

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Best place on meth

Perhaps some were buying for investments and the commute didn’t apply?

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Hyper-mega-Bull

most of the people who live in surrey work in surrey. only something like 13% commute to vancouver.

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Bear Vancouverite

I’m going to make it a point to ask whether people are planning to buy for living or investment. My sense was the people I spoke to and observed (probably arund 10-15 groups max) didn’t sound like investors, but that’s not scientific of course.

And how can “most of the people who live in surrey work in surrey”?

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

sorry, 46% live and work in surrey. 7% delta, 9% langley.

http://www.surrey.ca/bylawsandcouncillibrary/CR_2013-R217.pdf

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space889

ok, but I have to ask, how many Chinese were in the line up? I thought all this housing lust and price craziness was solely due to the Chinese immigrants?

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Bear Vancouverite

You misunderstand, by the time I got there there was no lineup, and had there been one I would have been too annoyed to stand there so long.

You already know the answer to your question anyway: most of the families I saw appeared to be “regular” new immigrants or locals. I saw maybe 1-2 “mainland” groups but they didn’t appear to be high rollers as one would associate with HAM.

I don’t think this is a question that the apparent locals buying were greedy.

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Shut It Down Already

Lots of mainlanders present = mainlanders are driving the market!

No mainlanders present = it’s the trickle down ripple effect caused by mainlanders driving the market!

Win-win!

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space889

Yes, I’m teasing a bit with my question. Keep up the good work with your field reports.

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StupidityCheck

Shut up you idiot.

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Bestplaceonearth

Great report. Lot of bears hide behind the screen, and they think it’s a scrary world out there. Come on bears, come out play, Vancouverites are friendly, they don’t bite. You can even borrow a cup of sugar from them, and don’t have to return it.

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Combat roach

Are you fucking drunk or just illiterate? Some traditional wisdom probably…

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Bestplaceonearth

And why are you using fucking your asshole all the time? Should get help.

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ChinaOne Swallows Dicks

Sorry, I don’t read or write Moron, can someone translate for me?

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Bestplaceonearth

By the way, people pay $10 an hour for lining up to buy houses, just in case you don’t know. Easy money.

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Brian Ripley

The Monthly Absorption Rate is “off the chart”
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

Even in Calgary the Months of Inventory levels are plummeting .

Peer pressure is difficult to resist. The herd is still bullish.

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Bear Vancouverite

Do you have any theories about the stickyness of Calgary’s prices? You charts show only a 5.8% decline in house prices since 2014 after 2 years of oil price declines and tens of thousands of jobs lost in the industry. That seems like a really slow rate of decline.

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Brian Ripley

1) Calgary Listing Supply peaked June 2010 at 13,459 residential units. April 2016, the listing supply was 6,242 ( a 54% drop from June 2010) 2) Alberta Earnings are only down 5% from the Oct 2014 peak and are still 17% above Canada. If you have a good job/life, why sell: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html 3) The inflationist memes: “you will be priced out if you don’t buy now” “governments will bail out the economy” “money printing” will eventually spark a global Zimbabwe (a fallacy) “unlimited foreign wealth looking for safe havens” “real estate is a good investment” despite its negative yield. 4) It takes a while for the weak handed potential vendors to realize that the exit maybe getting crowded. Purchasers on the other hand have the knowledge of making offers after looking at lots of properties and have a better idea… Read more »

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Newcomer (N)

My guess is that people aren’t selling, but rather sitting tight and drawing on their HELOCs, that would keep supply lower than would otherwise be expected.

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dyugle

The number of units under construction has only dropped 10-20%. It needs to drop 50% and stay there for 1 year before it is a good time to buy. Starts had dropped this amount but the absorption rate may put this drop into the rearview mirror and prevent a fall in the units under construction category.

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squeak

I guess that is a sign of how freaked out people are in regards to the housing situation.

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patriotz

Notice how many people are downsizing (including one from a townhouse in Cloverdale LOL).

But the units aren’t going to be ready for 2 years, which means for that period those people are going to be exposed to two properties unless they sell their existing property now, which I doubt.

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UnagiDon

“The developers have set the prices to discourage bidding wars”.
What does this mean? Does it mean deliberately set the prices high?

“The no-bidding promise is what brought Elizabeth Hodgson, 58, rushing up from South Dakota. ”
So she came rushing up to pay high prices?

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Reality TV show set in Vancouver housing market

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/05/05/reality-tv-show-set-in-vancouver-housing-market

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mlS watch

The story of Canadian real estate this year is one of shifting economic fortunes and changing real estate trends. …. As the rise in housing prices continues to outpace Canadians’ income growth, especially in markets like Toronto and Vancouver, more and more people are choosing to rent—permanently, in some cases. Even some retirees are opting to rent after they sell their homes, rather than buy a smaller home. … Many of our survey respondents suspect that Canada’s real estate markets are due for a breather after so many years of economic and real estate expansion—and they’re acting accord- ingly. Some are slowing their acquisition efforts in Canada, and focusing their attention on existing holdings and opportunities in the United States and other foreign markets… Some respondents suspect a downturn is coming—sooner rather than later. It’s a line of thinking that… Read more »

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mls watch

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/square-yards-bets-big-on-international-real-estate/article8520243.ece Square Yards, which was founded in 2013, aims to achieve an annual Gross Transactions Value (GTV) run rate of $500 million for international properties by this year-end. “We are currently present in eight countries. We recently entered Australia and Oman. We will soon be opening offices in South Africa and Canada. We are targeting NRIs in these countries. We plan to move to the US after Canada,” Vivek Agarwal, Principal Partner, Square Yards, told BusinessLine. According to estimates, in 2015 alone, Indians invested nearly $8 billion in the US realty market, $1.5 billion in the London and another $4 billion in Dubai . “We see 700 transactions a month, although the average ticket size of a flat has been declining as people move away from luxury properties. One year ago, our average ticket size was ₹75 lakh. This year,… Read more »

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Trump Jr. calls Vancouver mayor ‘disgusting’ for criticizing dad

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/trump-jr-calls-vancouver-mayor-disgusting-for-criticizing-dad-1.2889694

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Best place on meth

“he push to “Dump the Trump” was spurred by the presidential hopeful’s remarks on the U.S. campaign trail, where he proposed a ban on Muslims entering the country and branded Mexican immigrants as rapists and criminals.”

These shrieking media clowns always conveniently omit the word “illegal” whenever they’re playing the race card with Trump.

He was referring to Mexicans crossing the border illegally many of whom are criminals.

We have a similar problem with people committing fraud in order to immigrate here.

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Yunak

We have a bigger problem though, given the numbers and local support.

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space889

More Mexican left US than entered last year, including illegals. So SHUT UP you ignorant idiot!

hmmm…being jerk and yelling at people to shut up starts to seem fun. No wonder lazy asses prefer this to actual debates that require brain use.

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dyugle

So 10 million people crossing the border illegally is not a problem that should be discussed. Especially in the age of terrorism it should be ignored?
I do not believe that Trump knows what to do about it but it does need to be talked about and none of the candidates would be talking about it if it weren’t for Trump. ISIS, globalization , and immigration are the main problems the the politicians should be solving. Instead they worry about climate change which is going to solve itself over the next hundred years ( if not much sooner) as solar becomes more efficient and replaces fossil fuels. But they will pat themselves on the back and act like they saved the world. Pathetic.

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realist

Your insights are correct. The elites have created and promoted globalization and immigration in its current form in order to increase their return on investment — they certainly do not perceive them as a “problem”, nor do they want to “solve” them. On the other hand, climate change is loudly touted because it is the next big trough of tax money that corporations can feed off – just think of Solyndra, A123, Kleiner Perkins, and our favourite theologian, Al Gore.

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I\'m with Stupid V

I wonder if all the bpom cohorts realize that he is a trump supporter.
That’s like you agreeing with those idiot racists trump supporters in the states.

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southseacompany

“U.S. employment gains hit seven-month low, labour force shrinks”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-payrolls-gain-in-april-smallest-in-seven-months/article29910072/

“The U.S. economy added the fewest number of jobs in seven months in April and Americans dropped out of the labour force in droves, signs of weakness that cast doubts on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year.”

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space889

So basically lower interest rate for longer, and another last hope for bears disappears?

Wonder how Garth will spin this into his buy America, interest rate go up theme.

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