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Friday Free-for-all! May 20th 2016

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Oh yeah! It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all.

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Gov terrified of popping bubble
–CREA: Market ‘topped out’
–We don’t need no education
–How to pop the bubble before its too late
–BC Real estate watchdog leaving
–continued acceleration
–Anyone want to sell under market?
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
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This is what Vancouver has come to ?

The playing fields around John Oliver Secondary School is a prime real estate.The Vancouver School Board is considering subdividing and selling or leasing the land to keep the cash-strapped district afloat.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2707694/3-vancouver-schools-could-close-sooner-than-expected/

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space889
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Meanwhile Surrey can’t build elementary school fast enough and it’s school board is asking the city council to stop all new developments in 3 areas.

So maybe Vancouver isn’t the center of universe and people should look at the region as a whole?

As for selling school property, well if there isn’t the money what do you expect VSB to do? Print the money out of thin air? Raise property taxes? Keeping ghost schools around?

At least VSB can sell at the top of bubble for top $$$ and buy it back for pennies on the dollar once the bubble pops right? I mean people here still believe this is an epic bubble destine to pop, so why not make a $$ making trade.

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
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SELL KINGSGATE MALL FOR $100 MILLION DOLLAR BRIDGE THE BUDGET SHORT FALL, THEN PUT THE REST OF THE MONEY IN SAVING THAT GIVE YOU GUARANTEED 3 – 5 %

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StupidityCheck
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Shut up, you idiot.

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Shut It Down Already
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Check yourself.

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squeak
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Oh well, that’s nothing. Just think about how much money could be made if they sold off St George’s School, tear it down (it could have old ghosts in there..) and build 30 storey glass steel sky scraper. Yes. private, but if an offshorer offers enough ka -ching, think about the profit! And not to mention all the flipping that can be done =tax freedom! What a great society if we all could not pay taxes, taxes are only for the dummies (aka hardworking, honest tax paying Canadian citizens). Besides, who needs an extensive quality education, when you reap greater rewards being a house salesman? It is fast quick, no big student loans, no need to burn the midnight oil to pass migraine generating multi day exams. Are the Doctors, Engineers, Scientists, Teachers, etc. stupid? (Apologies for my sarcasm, Vancouver… Read more »
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8888888
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Lets tear down the BC Legislature as well ,they don’t really do anything in there anyways . If you want anything done you can just go to your local real estate salesturd.

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space889
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Isn’t St. George a private school?

And if you have no income then how do you pay income tax? Unless you are advocating taxing assets / wealth, and beneficial interests including ones extended from parents to kids.

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Dinnertime
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How do you accumulate assets with no income?

If you got all income from somewhere else and paid no tax here I think it’s reasonable that you to not be subsidized by those that did pay taxes here.

That means you should pay extra for almost EVERYTHING since healthcare, roads, police service, etc is all paid for through taxes.

How do you make a system like that work?

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space889
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Sales tax & property tax – both are much harder to dodge.

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bullwhip29
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been this way for a while now. all these shady, hush, hush deals done behind the scenes. even the resident idiot here should be able to figure out it all about RE all the time in this city. fellow vancouverites should keep their eyes on the ball and be on the lookout for more “underutilized” plots of land sprinkled over gr vanc, translation = any retail/commercial space that has no multi-family development on top of it is fair game imho. the days when kids could run through acres of grassy fields during recess are coming to an end…fast. coming to an apt block near you…schools within your bldg which will kill many birds with one stone. now parents will only have to escort their princesses and princelings to the elevators (vs loading them up in family range rover, driving 3… Read more »
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DaMann
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http://vancouverhomeproject.com/

The people that started this blog are ridiculous! As much as I hate this market and find it absolutely out of control, these guys are even worse. What makes them so special that someone should sell to them under market? Really? I’m going to “give you” $500k just because you really want a house? What planet are they on?

They don’t strike me as the smartest people as the article states they own a 2 bedroom condo but rent it out and rent a one bedroom condo because they don’t need the space. So they will end up paying capital gains tax on their condo and most likely not covering all the condo expenses either. So they already own a place but feel someone should also sell them a house cheaper because, well, they want one.

Unbelievable!

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Newcomer
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What kinds of scenarios are people seeing for rents? A few months ago I was actually in the market, as our landlady had decided to sell (she has since changed her mind, as she wasn’t sure she’d get the full 1.6+ she was counting on, and she has decided to wait). At that point, asking prices for 3 bedrooms looked to be up by about 25% from a year ago, but looking now, asking prices seem to be pretty close to last year’s numbers. That makes sense as we get into moving season, more supply comes online and landlords get fed up of having their places sit empty at higher asking prices. That said, a lot of offered three bedroom places now have smaller square footage, as people are relentlessly chopping up ordinary houses into multiple suites (sometimes as many… Read more »
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Hard to say – we’ve been looking for a few months and initially we had thought there was a big spike in rents from when we last moved two years ago. In the last 1-2 months the sort of postings we are seeing appear to have dropped significantly in price.

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Confucius
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From what I have experienced, people ask whatever their carrying costs are for the property. I’m not kidding you, I talked to several people and they said that’s their price cause they have to cover the mortgage and taxes. This can work in their favor when there’s low supply and everyone else is going by their same pricing rules. Why is there such low supply compared to a couple years ago? Tough to say, but it can’t totally be explained by empty houses and condos by foreign buyers. From local people I know, there are many knocking down houses to rebuild. This is temporarily taking supply out of the market and will come back double as they are building with income suites. You can drive around anywhere in town and see houses being rebuilt everywhere. What will happen when the… Read more »
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Yes, I think people start with their carrying costs and post that asking price of Craig’s List. Other people base their asking prices on that, and it is not until places have sat empty for a while that they start lowering.

It would be really interesting to know how many rental suites there are out there and how many more are being built. I have never seen any city like this, where so many people are living in multifamily buildings that were built a single family buildings. It’s just plain weird.

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Jim Jenkins
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Try moving to London, England where you have many people sharing a tiny little house. I remember one group of Aussie friends that had 12 people sharing a 3 bedroom home

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david
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FWIW: The term ‘bubble’ could be applied to most Canadian markets 5-7 years ago. Today, the term ‘gasbag’ is more appropriate.

As for Vancouver, moving and laundering money has made all real estate economic analysis utterly irrelevant.

Party on, Li “Ka Ching”.

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asd
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People of Vancouver, you haven’t seen the beginning yet. People down south are putting brake on Foreign money, Canada is the only place on earth with free capital flow, about cheap financing.

“The Australian Taxation Office on Thursday unveiled new legislation which will require those who are considered foreign residents for tax purposes to pay 10 per cent withholding tax on properties worth more than $2 million. It follows recent changes targeting foreign buyers: proof of residency and citizenship will be required when purchasing property in Sydney, while higher stamp duty rates will apply to foreign buyers in Victoria.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chinese-property-investors-getting-wary-of-buying-in-australia-20160519-gozd5s.html#ixzz49EbaD4wU
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook”

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asd
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chinese-property-investors-getting-wary-of-buying-in-australia-20160519-gozd5s.html

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asd
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your government is stupid, and haven’t learned. The kangaroos have a bigger brain than the people here. Stupid.

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space889
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I would say less willingness to be bought by special interests for cheap, and more willingness to do what’s they are elected to do, rather than the bidding of their financial backers. Maybe, they also got a more active electorate.

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david
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Our government is not stupid. It is oblivious, self-interested and completely unconcerned about the average voter/taxpayer….who are, collectively, stupid.

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space889
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Well, looks like Aussie housing authority are under their federal, not provincial gov’t, and I guess the federal gov’t hasn’t totally been bought by their RE industry yet.

Also, the Aussie politicians seems to have higher willingness to commit political suicides as shown by their gun control policies.

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patriotz
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Australia’s new withholding requirements are weaker than the requirements which Canada already has. In Canada the purchaser of a foreign owned property must withhold 25% of the purchase price, unless the seller has obtained a certificate of compliance and paid 25% of capital gains:

http://www.royalpacific.ca/what-non-residents-need-to-know-about-canadian-taxes-and-real-estate/

The fact is that Oz’s federal government welcomes foreign RE ownership, as long as it can be shown to be following their minimal rules. The only government in Oz which is taking concrete taxation action against absentee RE owners is Victoria’s Labour government.

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bullwhip29
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FP: Mystery Canadian hotel buyer potentially tied to China’s Anbang, report says
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/mystery-canadian-hotel-buyer-said-potentially-tied-to-anbang

http://wpmedia.business.financialpost.com/2016/05/anbang.jpg

>>>well, surprise, surprise…

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bullwhip29
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‘Dirty money’ driving real estate boom
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2016/05/19/dirty-money-driving-real-estate-boom.html

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Chinese Buyers Push Up Cost of Canadian Homes
https://beijingtoday.com.cn/2016/05/chinese-buyers-push-cost-canadian-homes/

https://beijingtoday.com.cn/_media_/2016/05/CFP398338695-1140×500.jpg

“The average annual income of Vancouver families is CA $70,000. At the current market price, the average Vancouver family would have to go 20 years without eating drinking or paying taxes to purchase a home.”

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Shut It Down Already
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Since when has the average Vancouver family not used a mortgage rather than paying 100% in cash?

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bullwhip29
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Chinese property investors getting wary of buying in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chinese-property-investors-getting-wary-of-buying-in-australia-20160519-gozd5s.html

http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/o/z/d/4/t/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.gozd5s.png/1463732035537.jpg

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Martyn Brown: An essay on B.C.’s housing crisis and what to do about it
http://www.straight.com/news/702206/martyn-brown-essay-bcs-housing-crisis-and-what-do-about-it

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Great read.

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bullwhip29
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SCMP: Chinese buyers of property in Canada and the US must stop flaunting their wealth
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1947333/chinese-buyers-property-canada-and-us-must-stop-flaunting

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Real Estate Flipping Seminars Trigger BBB Warning
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/20/real-estate-flipping-seminars-trigger-bbb-warning_n_10057176.html

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Here’s another harebrained idea from our leadership. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/surrey-mayor-wants-a-network-of-helipads-across-the-city/article30104262/

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space889
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Seems like these two found joy in life once they stopped wanting and caring about the house – retired at 31 with $1M and starting a Millennial Revolution

https://youtu.be/fGaEqwGGXfQ

Hats to Greatfool blog.

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New
246
Sold
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TI:8178

Thinking of buying or selling? Or just want to find out what your neighbours house sold for? 😉 Contact me anytime http://www.paulboenisch.com

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http://homesearchpalmsprings.idxbroker.com/idx/photogallery/b041/16120798PS

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The great celebrity house price slump: Suddenly, stars can’t shift their mansions – no matter how many millions they lop off the price. Hankies out!

For those of us stuck in the mundane world of mortgages and rent, it’s hard to feel sorry for them, but spare a thought for celebrities trying — and failing — to sell their homes.

Palatial pads that would once have been snapped up within days are lingering on the market for months at a time, forcing sellers to slash the asking price.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3601681/The-great-celebrity-house-price-slump-Suddenly-stars-t-shift-mansions-no-matter-millions-lop-price-Hankies-out.html

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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I was listening to CBC earlier today, and there were some interviews with club owners, describing pressures they face in getting in great musicians and getting the public to show up at events. One spoke quite heatedly with a lot of emphasis on the problem of housing affordability in Vancouver as having an effect on their industry. He made some excellent points in referring to various aspects of the situation. For example, people having to move out of the city to afford a place to live means longer sky train hours needed if there is good club attendance. Another example: the general class divisions entailed by the relentless globalization of Vancouver mean more people are being hyper precious about going to clubs anywhere near hastings and main, etc. There were several other facets of the bearing of housing (un)affordability on… Read more »
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In the housing crisis, Vancouver is not alone – and London offers hope

In London, the British Property Federation commissioned a report with the straightforward title Who Buys New Homes in London and Why.

The report looks at sales in 2013, and contains some startling numbers.

For instance, 61 per cent of all new homes sold in London in 2013 were bought by investors. Of those investors, 15 per cent were offshore buyers not living in London. Fifteen per cent is a London-wide figure. In what is known as Prime Central London, 49 per cent of new homes were bought by offshore investors.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/in-the-housing-crisis-vancouver-is-not-alone-and-london-offers-hope/article30113530/

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Shut It Down Already
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So 15% of 61% are foreign, the other 90% are locals.

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@ SIDA
Detailed research by Knight Frank’s research team indicates that overseas buyer activity varies with location as follows:
• In Prime Central London 49% of sales go to overseas buyers.
• In Inner London the figure is 20%.
• Outer London trails with 7%.

http://www.bpf.org.uk/sites/default/files/resources/BPF-Who-buys-new-homes-in-London-and-why.pdf

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wwwww
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Don’t all of you wish you hadn’t listened to people like patriotz and bought a house? You would have mode so much money.

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Newcomer
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You can’t make money by buying a house. You can only make money when you sell.

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You sound like patriotz. Pedantic, missing the big picture, and totally unhelpful.

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You may also be missing something in this conversation. If I had bought the house I live in last year, my equity would be 20 % higher this year, but if I don’t sell it this year, my equity could be 30% lower next year. Owning an expensive asset is not the same as making money. That is precisely the lack of understanding that burns people. They think they have a lot of money and then find out that what they actually have is a lot of debt.

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wwwww
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No, I get it. It’s obvious. Everyone get it.

But it doesn’t change the fact that everyone on this blog who didn’t buy demonstrated a huge failure in judgment.

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By that logic, everyone who didn’t buy a lotomax ticket demonstrated a failure in judgment.

Leveraging to buy overpriced assets is risky. Just because it works out well for people, doesn’t make it good judgment to take the risk.

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Shut It Down Already
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False. Many of the people here were making invalid buy/rent comparisons by:

a) fabricating large maintenance/insurance costs
b) including mortgage principal as an expense
c) not considering the possibility that RE was underpriced at any time in the recent past.

They never listened when people tried to correct them. So, yes, it was a failure in judgement and not like a lottery ticket.

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2 years 5 months ago
wwwww
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Wow… are you serious?

The vast majority of people who bought a lotto ticket lost all their investment.

Every single person who bought a house made money.

It’s simple.

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I can see where you are coming from. If you believe that every single person who ever bought a house made money then, of course, it would be foolish not to buy.

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wwwww
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Why are you intentionally misunderstanding?

Obviously I mean everyone who bought a house in Vancouver in the recent past.

You were wrong. Own it. Learn from it.

You had the same information and opportunity as everyone else. Your interpretation was incorrect. Theirs was correct. They benefited greatly from it. You didn’t. That’s where we are now. That’s reality.

Live with it.

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I didn’t realize that you don’t read the comments here. If you did, you would have noticed me often saying I was wrong on my predictions of what this market would do. Or perhaps you are just being a dick for the fun of it. Who knows. But it does not change the fact that the story is not over for the purchasers until they successfully sell. We will see who comes out ahead. I’m guessing that folks who bought ten years ago will come out ahead of me (even if they have paid more for shelter than I have) but I doubt people who bought yesterday will be glad that they did. We’ll see.

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2 years 5 months ago
tokyorealestateman
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no–wwwww is correct–buy and hold works–market timing is so hard if not impossible. tokyo’s market is booming too btw

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2 years 5 months ago
ILoveCharts
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Meanwhile, it seems like everyone I talk to is buying a house or land on the island.

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mlS watch
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Is it because they have lost hope Vancouver will ever be affordable, or because they are fleeing what Vancouver has become?

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bullwhip29
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both partly correct. also a factor are investors (local and foreign) scooping up what they deem to be cheap properties for use as rentals or vacation homes. sunshine coast has seen same thing. 12-18 months ago there were 100’s of homes just sitting on mkt in the 300-400k range (were talking many months if not yrs without offers). since feb 2016 pretty much every one of them just got mysteriously hoovered up as if some light switch was just flicked on or some yet to be announced material development is imminent. i suspect some sort of a fixed link to sunshine coast is a done deal while a confederation bridge-like mega project is being tossed around for vanc island.

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squeak
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The thing about Vancouver Island is that it is a island with only boat access, or plane which most cannot afford.

To get off the island is a project. You are stuck b/c of time restraints and money restraints.

To get to the ferries: 1 hour (watch your speed, this is income for the road patrols)
At the ferries: wait 30 to 60 min to board, or more if waiting for next sailing.
On the ferry: 1.5 hours (to eat: costly)
To get off the ferry: 20 min
To get into Vancouver or surrounds: 1 hr at least, Vancouver is in a gridlock.

That is a big time investment not to mention a return trip is $150 for a car and driver, NO passengers.

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volkboot
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The worst thing is that after all that work you just end up in Vancouver.

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bullwhip29
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only boat access for now. things can change. this govt has proven time and time again that it will move forward with whatever agenda suits them regardless of the cost or public opinion. if the confederation bridge can be built on the east coast, it can certainly be done here too. obviously such a project would be mammoth in size, but it would also make every property owner on the island a small fortune in the process. dont think for a second that the thought hasnt crossed their minds…

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http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/transportation/transportation-reports-and-reference/reports-studies/vancouver-island/fixed-link

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bullwhip29
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a lot has changed since the 1980’s. the potential money to be made will motivate the best and brightest to come up with a solution even it means having to turn over each and every stone to find the answer.

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what the govt says means little imho. take the massey tunnel/bridge as an example. one moment they’re saying a modest tunnel upgrade would suffice, the next they are ramming plans for a multi-billion $ bridge (which will be one of the largest in cda) through at warp speed as big business and RE industry stand to bank windfall profits as a result.

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They are priced out of Vancouver. You were warned that this would happen.

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People who are priced out don’t buy land a ferry ride away from their jobs. They’re speculating.

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wwwww
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We don’t have neo-feudilasim yet. People are still aloud to leave their jobs and find new ones.

Some are priced out, some are cashing out, some are speculating.

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mlS watch
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Going to the Sunshine Coast is 13$ per person, with an experience card, for a return ticket. The translink bus drops u at the ferry terminal. If you are will organized, there is a lot you can do on the ferry (work, have dinner, etc). There are more than a 1000 people who live on the SC and work in Van. Not easy. But it fits some people’s lifestyle. Lately, one income families have been looking to buy homes. Hubby away long hours. Reminds me of the sailors’ families.

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imho, a fixed link to the sunshine coast is in the works making it an extension of the north shore. i feel sorry for those that hit the first bid that came along after waiting and waiting for months and months, basically every liveable house on a decent lot under 500k got snapped up in the last 2-3 months. something is definitely up. maybe chrusty let the cat out of the bag to her family, friends, business associates and RE developers and investors??? the study they commissioned earlier in the year will be ready in the fall but i suspect that is all about dotting I’s and crossing T’s

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LS in Arbutus
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The fact that market can go up 25% – 30% in a single year should be very scary for everyone. What is this? This is wild speculation, people throwing caution to the wind, going all in, on top of the last 10 years of this. This is not a housing market this is like a stock market. Would you buy into the stock market doing the same thing? You cannot continue to make money out of nothing. Most of this is on the back of DEBT. Foreign or domestic. Just because this has continued for the past 14 years, when interest rates went to record lows, debt went to record highs, does not mean it will continue. It could easily come down 25% in a year as it went up 25%. Why does everyone think that can’t happen? As home… Read more »
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squeak
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As far as I am concerned, nothing should happen except to the person that took the loans. And the bank giving the loan should do what a 7 year old can figure out, can the person afford it?

She signed the contract.
She deals with it. (or he or they)

It is NOT MY PROBLEM. Why? Because I did not sign it, not even a finger print.

How about practicing some clean decent honest living for a change?
(did you hear that, Government ?)

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wwwww
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>What is this?

It’s HAM. House hold debt isn’t even keeping up with inflation, let alone 25% annual price increases.

Wake up and smell the chicken feet people. Or just buy a house cause people still don’t know what’s causing price appreciation so we are still a decade away from a solution.

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MACLEANS: The anatomy of a housing bubble
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/

http://www.macleans.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/MAC22_HOUSE_BUBBLE_POST.jpg

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bullwhip29
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There goes the neighbourhood: Part 3 in a series about real estate in North and West Vancouver
http://www.nsnews.com/news/there-goes-the-neighbourhood-part-3-in-a-series-about-real-estate-in-north-and-west-vancouver-1.2260597

http://images.glaciermedia.ca/polopoly_fs/1.2260608.1463789504!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_804/monster-homes.jpg

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vanvic
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Reading this story made me feel sick.

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squeak
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Don’t get too sick, health care system is very strained, resources are very strained.

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This is the same thing that’s happening on the West Side of Vancouver. Citizens of China are buying large lots that make up a significant percentage of the land area of West Vancouver. How much of the land area of Vancouver is now owned by Chinese citizens?

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2 years 5 months ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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What about the businesses along Broadway west of MacDonald? A lot of old standbys seem to be changing ownership or under threat from nearby competitors who have just moved in. Are these businesses getting sold for unusually big bucks in the same way houses are, or for more typical ‘rational’ prices?

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I\'m With Stupid
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Chinese citizens? Not many.

Chinese immigrants with pr cards or citizenship, quite a few.

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southseacompany
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“Could this post-Fed bond selloff be a repeat of ‘taper tantrum’?”, MarektWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-this-post-fed-bond-selloff-be-a-repeat-of-taper-tantrum-2016-05-18

“A spike in Treasury yields, which posted Wednesday their largest daily jump in five months after the Federal Reserve said it is open to hiking interest rates in June, fueled fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” during which yields skyrocketed as government bonds got hammered.”

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2 years 5 months ago
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another thing you’ll notice living in the US compared to vancouver is
the wealthy people in America are all well educated , hard working , and have good jobs, and have no interest in flaunting wealth

the rich people in vancouver are all dopey accidental millionaires who never worked much , and live off some real estate inheritance from their parents …

the rich Americans I meet are not even 1/10th as smug and cocky as the dopey accidental millionaires I meet in Vancouver

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Shut It Down Already
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Can they use capital letters and punctuation correctly?

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Mandrake
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Taking prickness to the next level, marvellous…

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Whistler Or Bust gave me fresh ideas.

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great blog–enjoying reading the posts–ty

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https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/4k9r67/lineup_for_polygons_new_townhouse_complex_in/

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