Inching towards instability

Canada’s housing market is overheating.

Don’t worry, there’s no risk of a crash yet and further action by the federal government is expect to cool things down.

This according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Emanuella Enenajor.

And, perhaps more importantly, she noted that “it’s different this time” because the Federal Reserve is in the midst of gradually raising interest rates.

“Economists and investors have become numb to signs of housing excess, as the sector has defied gravity for years,” Ms. Enenajor said.

“However, as the Fed gradually exits its accommodative policy, medium-term rates in Canada could also rise.”

This, she warned, heightens the threat of a correction in Canada’s housing market.

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

 

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BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Clark’s Pay from Donors Too Tied to Real Estate Moguls: Eby
Conflict may explain Premier’s inaction on affordability, says NDP MLA.
A lot of BC Liberal donations come from wealthy people in the real estate industry, and the party’s person in charge of keeping them flowing is himself a top marketer of condo developments, Bob Rennie.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/05/02/Clark-Donors-Tied-Real-Estate/

space889
Member
space889

So please explain to me how this isn’t just out and out bribery? How is this different from all those Chinese gov’t officials accused of taking $$$ into their personal pockets for favors?

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Clark is Chinese official, what kind of difference are you talking about?

ChinaOne Swallows Dicks
Guest
ChinaOne Swallows Dicks

Good point.

space889
Member
space889

Really? And you people voted in a Chinese official? Hmm…interesting….

I didn’t realize the power of Chinese Communist gov’t to be able to do regime change so effectively. Not even US can manage this! Wow.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

It’s no different.

This is the result of allowing a massive influx of corrupt communists into our province, we’ve become just like them.

space889
Member
space889

Wow, you mean this kind of thing didn’t exists before Chinese people immigrated to Canada? That local political donors didn’t donate $$ to various party in exchange for favors?? They did it purely out of concern for democracy??

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Corruption was non-existent before immigration?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Comrade Christy will just smirk it off, she has the classic thug mentality where she thinks she’s untouchable and her arrogance shows it.

Voter from Safeway
Guest
Voter from Safeway

I’ve been told that Vancouver housing market can’t crash. Rates or whatever, people say, there is the infinite supply of Chinese who want to buy Vancouver properties hence to keep this market going upward for another 30-50 years at least. It says that for them this market is super cheap and they aren’t interested in any other investments but properties. Also, thy want good community services, unpolluted air and good schools for their kids as well as medical for their parents so they can bring them all here, and continue to work in China until retirement in BC.

squeak
Member
squeak
Oxymoron: no risk of a crash yet and further action by the federal government is expect to cool things down. Lets just grind this whole thing into the ground. Any so called measures are in my opinion nothing but just trying to LOOK like they are doing something. (Vote PR). Let this housing market continue as it is, Canadians have been out of the equation for years anyways so it does not make any difference what they do now. Let it continue to a nuclear meltdown, maybe then, maybe, BC can start fresh over again. I bet there are already plans in place what to do in this scenario by private/corporate/foreign interests. People need to start thinking strategically, have plans for 10 steps ahead, like a chess game. But of course, that is not all that easy, if you are… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

Look at what happened in US after their RE market crashed? Private equity firms like BlackRock scooped up all the super cheap properties by the thousands and became the biggest landlords in the country. The average joe are crushed financially, and forced to pay higher rents for a roof over their head. So the only real winners are the big $$$ boys. The average middle class in US did not really benefit from the housing market crash or the subsequent cheaper housing prices.

I doubt Canada would be much different. A condo maybe a bad investment at 4% gross yield, but a 50% push that to 8%, add in rent increases and such, it might even go to 10% gross. That’s a pretty good yield.

Many Franks
Member

OSFI is sneaking an increase in capital requirements to “ensure that capital requirements remain prudent in periods where house prices are high relative to household income and/or house prices are increasing rapidly in nominal terms.”

It becomes effective November 1st.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/CAR_nr20160429.aspx

space889
Member
space889

I think the banks are ahead of the game by quietly laying off thousands of relatively good paid middle & back office people. Also, they do purchase CMHC insurance, even on mortgages with > 20% down payment. If any big loss, it will likely be borne by the rank & file taxpayers.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

47 Percent Of Americans Cannot Even Come Up With $400

“The Fed asked respondents how they would pay for a $400 emergency. The answer: 47 percent of respondents said that either they would cover the expense by borrowing or selling something, or they would not be able to come up with the $400 at all. Four hundred dollars! Who knew?”

I wonder if this is the case in Canada too, or Canadians are much smarter and would never get in such situation?

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/

space889
Member
space889

Why am I surprised that the bears are always so behind…. this topic was covered a few months on Garth’s blog, along with almost every major media, where BMO and other financial institutions all did surveys on just how un-prepared Canadians are.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Space, don’t be silly – you can’t expect these racist children to have a memory that goes back all the way to September!

http://vancouvercondo.info/2015/09/canadian-personal-finances-bleak.html

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/29/consumer-insolvencies-bankruptcy-canada_n_9807152.html

It may be a statistical blip, or it may be a warning bell that Canadians have taken on too much debt, and are now struggling to handle it.

The number of consumer insolvencies in the country jumped by 9.7 per cent over the past year, according to data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (OSB).

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Surprised nobody yet has mentioned this paragraph of the G&M article….

“Ms. Enenajor’s report is in-depth, tracking everything from foreign buyers in the hot Vancouver and Toronto markets to job losses in the hard-hit resource provinces…”

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Trump: ‘We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country’

No worries, BC will be always available to accommodate.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/donald-trump-china-rape/

space889
Member
space889

China raping US?? that’s a laugh….

It’s the greedy CEOs and shareholders that send the jobs overseas for cheaper labour costs and looser regulations. If you want someone to blame, that’s the correct people to blame.

patriotz
Member

Hey I guess you agree with Bernie Sanders:

One of Bernie’s key goals is to end our disastrous trade policies with China which force American workers to compete against low-wage labor, which serves largely to benefit already wealthy corporations.

But I guess not with this part:

Because Bernie respects national sovereignty and believes strongly in the universality of human rights, he has a strong record of supporting Tibet as well as both political and religious freedoms in China. Bernie also strongly supports efforts to prevent foreign sales of weapons to China to prevent them from building up their military.

space889
Member
space889

Care to show me one officially recognized map produced in the last 200 years that recognized Tibet as an independent country? And didn’t US fought a long bloody war to prevent some states exercising their democracy to secede from the union?? Kind of hypocritical of him to talk about Tibet.

As for low wage labour, well, when you are living in a dirt poor country living hand to mouth, you are obviously going to work for a LOT less than an American worker. That’s just simple reality.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Trump added that he is not “angry at China,” but with U.S. leaders whom he accused of being “grossly incompetent.”

Well sure, it was the US politicians who sold out their people to china, the commies are just taking full advantage.

What he should come out and say is that china has stolen all of the technology created by the US and continues to do so via cyber-attacks and in-person industrial espionage, which should be considered an act of war with an appropriate military/economic response.

In other words, they’ve been waging war and should be hit back hard.

space889
Member
space889

So you will be volunteering for the US Army and go fight the commies??

And what would you call US tapping German Chancellor’s cellphone and emails? Just a nice caring ally?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I will volunteer to help round up pro-china shitbags here at home.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Big surprise – you agree with Trump. Nobody here saw that one coming!

Queue2
Guest
Queue2

Tensions Rising Ahead of South China Sea Ruling

http://m.voanews.com/a/south-china-sea-dispute-philippines/3311925.html

China is going to cause a military arms race in that whole region. Like they don’t have enough land? They have to pick on the Philippines? How do you find an excuse for this aggression Space?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

He’s been brainwashed by the party to be obedient to the motherland since he was first able to crawl and suck his thumb.

In case people haven’t noticed, he is completely incapable of criticising his country, people or culture in any way, there is zero possibility of him ever doing so.

He’ll also never be a Canadian no matter how long he lives here and he knows it.

VanCity Guy
Guest
VanCity Guy

City of Vancouver Survey – We want your opinion on actions to address empty homes
http://vancouver.ca/news-calendar/empty-homes-survey.aspx
Have your say!

space889
Member
space889

I think the paragraph under the Take the Survey button says it all. Absolutely nothing of real important will be done:

Limited tools available

We have limited tools to discourage empty homes, so partnership and support from the BC government are critical to the next steps.

Public opinion about the need for action will be an important part of the request we present to senior government. Under the Vancouver Charter, the City does not have the power to mandate occupancy.

The online questionnaire launches today and is open for responses until May 16, 2016.

Learn more about housing and homelessness

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

One thing that falls within the city’s purview, as I understand it, is property tax deferrals with limited penalty. Perhaps that should be removed based on the assessed value of the property and/or based on an individual’s net worth/earning:
http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/defer-your-taxes.aspx

I figure if enough people point out that, for e.g., healthy sixty-something empty nesters in Dunbar with two good pensions don’t need tax help, perhaps there will be some changes.

patriotz
Member

No, it’s a provincial program, as the web page you linked to points out itself, and no city has any power to alter its terms.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Damn. Misread. Thought they had some control over it.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Quite the report on our market

“Whether you feel any sympathy for these people is up to you. Whether resentment at what is going on is an ‘entitled mentality’ is also up to you. For me, though, any such discussion of ‘entitlement’ and so on needs to happen after young Vancouverites are no longer forced to compete with vast amounts of money from abroad, sometimes of dubious origin.”

http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/pdfs/Vancouver%27s%20Housing%20Affordability%20Crisis%20Report%202016%20Final%20Version.pdf

Bizon
Guest
Bizon

It is so sad and unfortunate how much pain and troubles were caused by those foreign fuckups and their local enablers. A great study though.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
As this report will show, this interpretation of the crisis is largely accurate: foreign ownership and investment is far and away the most important driver of the housing affordability crisis. If anything, many have placed insufficient importance on this factor. Other alleged factors, when examined closely, cannot explain the surge in prices witnessed in the past decade. If it is so obvious that something has gone wrong in the housing market, why haven’t the relevant governments stepped in to do anything? Even back in June of 2015, which seems like a very different place in the debate, there were strong majorities in support of a host of policy measures to address the crisis.3 69 percent supported a speculation tax on flipping and 79 percent supported an extra property transfer tax on foreign buyers, for example. Yet both the federal and… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Nobody is forced to buy. Ever.

patriotz
Member

Nor is there any reason for people to buy in their early twenties, other than a belief that prices will keep going up indefinitely. In the 1980’s, when prices were far far lower of course, I didn’t know of anyone who bought until they were nearing 30.

Today’s trend of 20 somethings buying (with help from Mom and Dad of course) represents a big increase in market demand.

And I’ll repeat my prediction: the census which is being conducted right know will show record high home ownership in Vancouver CMA.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

“Nor is there any reason for people to buy in their early twenties”

what kind of shitty statement is this? Really now!

franko
Member
franko

No one is disputing the record high ownership that you keep harping about. The fact that the survey in vangirl’s post shows that 79% of the population believes the high cost of RE is hurting Vancouver, and that 87% are worried about the next generation not being able to afford a home, totally debunks your claim that politicians will always be forced to support higher RE prices.

patriotz
Member

And how many of those 79% or 87% have bought since 2005, or helped their kids to buy, or own a revenue property, or voted for a provincial government that is in the pocket of the RE industry? Because anyone who is one of these is part of the problem, but I’ll bet you they don’t think they are.

Many Franks
Member

See the recent discussion of AirBNB. To paraphrase: “Someone should do something, as long as it doesn’t affect my illegal hotel operation.” I think pretty much everyone can agree that there’s a serious problem, but that doesn’t mean they can stomach the remedy.

franko
Member
franko

I don’t know how many of those 79% and 87% have bought since 2005, and I really don’t give a shit. The point is that many homeowners have bigger concerns than profiting from the situation. The more we badger our governments the sooner they might start counting potential votes. That’s something your Justin does not have to worry about for three and a half years.

patriotz
Member

Forget about “badgering”. Christy has made it perfectly clear that there will be no changes in her RE policy unless the voters get rid of her. If they don’t, that means the voters really don’t care that much about the RE situation.

As for the federal government, I’ve already noted that neither the Liberals nor NDP made any concrete proposals to bring down RE prices. That said, getting rid of Harper and his insane plan to increase home ownership further is an improvement.

franko
Member
franko

I can only hope that exploiting this forum for your political aspirations is as obvious to others as it is to me.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Nobody from china should be ALLOWED to buy. Ever.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
407
Sold
203
TI:8299

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

The people of Rome should tell those fuckers to go home as loudly as possible.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Why can’t they get mugged and be left dazed and confused like everyone else?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“O’Leary: Millennials “why own and be in debt?” approach is smart”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=857187

“BNN gets Kevin O’Leary’s take on BMO’s survey of millennials and their intentions in the Canadian real estate market. He says many of the young people who work for him are questioning home ownership, which he calls a smart approach.”

franko
Member
franko

C’mon Pope, it’s time to do something about the hackers. Instead of the conspicuous barrage of down votes within seconds, they have deviously tried to make them look more convincing by limiting the numbers.
My preference would be a reversion to up votes only. If that is too complicated, no votes at all might be better than the constant suspicion.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Possibly the voting charade is yet another example that Vancouver is under Chinese jurisdiction, therefore, the adequate practice, based on deception, dupery, and fraud.

squeak
Member
squeak

I wonder how soon the votes on your and my comment will go down…or, perhaps discreetly kept low…
Pathetic minds.

squeak
Member
squeak

I agree.
Note I did not bother to vote as some like to CORRUPT the voting.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Dice may not roll for Richmond as province cracks down on casino transactions

Stepped up anti-money laundering measures led to dip in revenue for Richmond casino

http://www.richmond-news.com/city-hall/dice-may-not-roll-for-city-as-province-cracks-down-on-casino-transactions-1.2243415#sthash.4wt7LqmI.dpuf

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