Vancouver market now a national problem

Most people in Canada don’t care about the Vancouver housing market, but that doesn’t mean they would be unaffected by a bursting housing bubble here.

Canadian Business argues that what we need is a national regulator to deal with risks in the financial system:

In 2013, the International Monetary Fund called on Canada to create a federal entity with a clear mandate to monitor threats to the financial system. The IMF earlier this month scolded Ottawa for so far ignoring its advice.

The Vancouver house-price surge is exactly the sort of thing the independent agency should handle. It is a national issue: everyone knows who will be called on to clean up the mess if it bursts. The banks would feel it and likely would curb lending. CMHC would feel it because it has insured most of the mortgages Vancouverites have used to buy their inflated assets.

Unfortunately as a politician anything you could do about the housing market would most likely be political suicide. Owners are voters and nobody wants to see the value of their home drop.  Read the full article here.

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VanRant
Member
VanRant

Is the Vancouver Housing Market a Ponzi Scheme? – The Lynda Steele Show – May 17, 2016
http://omnyapp.com/shows/lynda-steele-show/is-the-vancouver-housing-market-a-ponzi-scheme-the

8888888
Guest
8888888
patriotz
Member

What it could learn is that the purpose of such “restrictions” is to increase the profits of the RE industry:

“The Foreign Investment Review Board has been in place for many years and foreign buyers may purchase new property or construct new property and that’s in part to encourage development and encourage the growth of building stock,” says Neville Sanders, the president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia.

Remember, “new property” includes new building on the site of a teardown.

squeak
Member
squeak
“Unfortunately as a politician anything you could do about the housing market would most likely be political suicide. Owners are voters and nobody wants to see the value of their home drop.” Oh well then, then the answer that the politicians shouldn’t do anything, nobody wants to hurt them of course. And of course we don’t want the homeowners to lose money (they are so special and different), so just keep the foreign money flowing in and speculation keep going. As a matter of fact every Canadian should quit their jobs (no matter “how important” or deemed essential service – who gives a rats youknowwhat) and get in on the flipping/speculating! That is the “thing” now and been for last 15 + years. Keep it going, eh. We will be rich! Canada will be even Greater! Yes! The Great White… Read more »
realist
Member
realist

“As a matter of fact every Canadian should quit their jobs (no matter“how important” or deemed essential service – who gives a rats youknowwhat) and get in on the flipping/speculating!”

Sadly, quite a number have. It’s giving a whole new meaning to the phrase “misallocation of resources”, an earmark of bubbles.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Indeed. A realtor sitting in a townhouse I visited last weekend was a practicing lawyer but she found she made more money practicing real estate.

Bear Vancouverite
Guest
Bear Vancouverite

This frustrates me a lot too. You wouldn’t believe the % of people around me who are in the industry directly or indirectly, and many of them bright folks that could have gone into other industries. And if it’s not people I directly know, it’s their siblings, cousins, parents, or relatives.

I know a nurse, a physiotherapist, a former import/export business owner, a telecom employee, and lawyer all who have dropped their practices/jobs to go into real estate.

space889
Member
space889

Slap a triple/quadruple/quintuple property tax surcharge on all residential housing units where the owner (individual or trust or corp) / renter doesn’t file a Canadian tax return, or is not a primary residence. Use the $$ for debt reduction or personal income tax reduction, needed healthcare, infrastructure spending, reduce gov’t debt.

I’m sure the rich with their high priced lawyers & accountants can find ways to get around it, or influence how the rules are written. But something simple like that would curb foreign $$, raise a boatload of needed $$$ for useful societal purpose, and wouldn’t really drop housing prices overall. Best of all, it doesn’t affect local tax filing law abiding voters. So, not really political suicide.

Likelihood of that happening unfortunately is pretty much 0.

8888888
Guest
8888888

Can Canadians buy property in China so that we can speculate on their housing ?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Canadian firms already are investing in China property; “Ivanhoe Cambridge boosts China property investment to $1B”

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/6/23/Ivanhoe-Cambridge-boosts-China-property-investment-to-1B.aspx

Ivanhoe Cambridge, one of Canada’s largest property investors, doubled its investment in Chinese real estate to $1 billion U.S. by taking a stake in a firm that builds retail-anchored mixed-use developments in the Shanghai area.”

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
I think working in the background and affecting the politicians’ mindset is the idea that homeowners are the most important citizens because they are the ones most likely to be stable (because they would be the ones raising families in the community rather than would the renters be) and to make socially responsible choices and to donations to the community. But, see, while that may be true for those who actually live in the houses, at this point it is probably not true for a sizable portion of “home” owners (i.e. single family housing), and rather, it will be more likely to be true of renters. That is, if you find someone who is stable, works in the community, makes socially responsible choices and donates labor or ideas to the community, it is more probable that he or she is… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Sorry for the typos
End of first sentence/paragraph: … and to make donations….

Second paragraph, first sentence: …*i.e. single family housing owners)….

space889
Member
space889

Statistics says otherwise…almost 70% of households are owners, maybe even more in BC given our RE obsessions. Just cuz there are lots of foreign absentee owners doesn’t mean locals ownership have to be low.

Also, older people are much more likely to vote than young people and guess what? The home ownership among the older population (say 45+) will be much higher than the 20-35 crowd.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
For the sake of argument, let’s assume you’re right that (1) the home ownership rate among the older population (50+) is higher than the 20-49 crowd and that (2) a bigger proportion of the 50+ crowd vote compared to the proportion of 20-49 who vote. Even so, this would not show that if someone is stable, works in the community, makes socially responsible choices and donates labor or ideas to the community, it is more probable that he or she is the owner of a detached house than a renter. That’s for numerous reasons. (a)Even if (2) is true that does not mean MORE 50+ vote than 20-49. (Though perhaps the number is higher; I don’t know.) (b) Even if more 50+ vote than 20-49, this does not mean that all those50+ that vote are homeowners nor that those 20-49… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

In other words, Space, statistics doesn’t say otherwise. I’m not denying your 70% figure. I am disagreeing with your way of applying it.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2012001/article/11629-eng.htm

Homeowners turnout to vote more than renters.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

(1) That’s from five years ago.
(2) It’s doing this: Look at the population of voters. Ask what proportion are owners and what proportion are renters.
(3) I’m suggesting look at something else. (a)Look at the population of owners. Ask what proportion of them vote. (b) Look at the population of renters, what proportion of them vote?

Do you understand the difference?

patriotz
Member

Homeowners are a lot more important to the politicians because there are a lot more of them than renters and they are probably more likely to vote. You don’t have to go into assumptions about who is more “responsible”, that does not make one vote count more than another.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

See my comment above.

asdf
Guest
asdf

June Rate hike, prepare CAD back to .68,

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/18/federal-reserve-minutes.html

8888888
Guest
8888888

This looks like the interest rate chart in Canada. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE_aVsPs4Sw&feature=youtu.be

8888888
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8888888
8888888
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8888888
tokyorealestateman
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tokyorealestateman

whats wrong with that little house?–looks fine by me.

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29
just like the heat was turned up first on vanc east side, then the various burbs and now vanc island, the sunshine coast and elsewhere we will see this brush fire spread across the country (well at least in the major metro areas) as everything else now looks dirt cheap compared to vancity. this is precisely what has occurred in toronto in the last 18-24 months. and why not calgary/edmonton housing bubble 2.0? this city is proof that a robust underlying economy isnt a requirement for 30-40% increases YoY ad infinitem. it wont take long for the hot money crowd to forget all about fort mac and start trading RE there again for simply for sport. perhaps this all comes to a thunderous end after new coast opens satellite offices in yellowknife and iqaluit. lords knows they have already got… Read more »
Loon
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Loon
Runawayscreaming
Guest
Runawayscreaming

Good luck with that.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Well, at least they’re trying to do SOMEthing.

tokyorealestateman
Guest
tokyorealestateman

people who struggled to buy over the years aint gonna take anything but market price–why would they–my 2 cents–this is an interesting blog–enjoying it btw thanks

Ulsterman
Member
Today was a tough day as i watched my neighbour’s house sell in one weekend for well over asking. But to truly appreciate how far down the rabbit hole we’ve descended, it’s worth looking at the price action of the past couple of years – I live in North Burnaby. 2014 assessment = 988,400 2015 assessment = $1,298,800 Listed $1,988,000 Sold in days for…$2,300.000 It’s a SFH on a 70×122 lot that is zoned duplex. Total floor area 2236. I’ve surrendered unconditionally to this market. I am of course utterly defeated. At $1m my house (which is on a slightly bigger lot) was too expensive for my budget. $2.3? That’s just insanity. That all said the buyers are probably the smart ones because they’ll probably flip it next year for a quick $500,000 profit. And before anyone thinks that’s outlandish,… Read more »
123
Guest
123

I could never figure out the appeal of that area that justifies the prices. Brentwood mall is boring. Sure, there’s a skytrain station but there’s one in Whalley too….

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’ve got a buddy selling his place in North Burnaby for the same list. I laughed at him five years ago when he said that he expected it to reach 2M.

Bear Vancouverite
Guest
Bear Vancouverite
Thanks for sharing. Years ago I had huge arguments with family and friends about the overpriced real estate in Vancouver. One family member felt strongly their house would eventually one day fetch $3M and I was incredulous and probably laughed at him. This was long ago when his house was assessed at less than $1M. This year his home has received four separate $3.2M offers from developers. The sad reality is, your neighbour’s place would have to drop 80%+ or more in prices to return to levels before 2009. It’s possible that those in their mid to late 30s and early 40s have been priced out forever (I fall into this age group). If the bubble pops today it might take 5, 7 or even 9 years to fully correct. And if prices continue for 2-3 more years it could… Read more »
mlS watch
Guest
mlS watch

This is why I gave up on Vancouver. And I am so glad I did. It feels so good living in a community that feels like 2000, where at parties NO ONE talks about real estate the whole evening :).

space889
Member
space889
yeap, that’s exactly it. And I guess that’s why all the hate on this blog from a certain group of bears who refuses to admit they were wrong, and now lashing out at anything to justify that it’s not their own mistake and error in judgment. This RE mania is very unlikely to pop this year and next. Even if it pops in 2017, after the 30% price up so far (at least for SFH) and likely another 20%+ run up this year, it would need to drop ~33% just to reach 2015 starting price which bears already consider to be bubble territory. For housing prices here to drop 80% when we have population growth still and very slow supply increasing is extremely unlikely. Unless we have interest rate going back up to 6% and stay there, or massive 10%+… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Guest
Bear Vancouverite
Here’s an interesting question space: do you currently own a home and do you personally and honestly believe that prices of homes (whether SFH, townhomes, or condos) are honestly anything but inflated and distorted? From what I’ve read of your posts in the past, you actually do believe they are inflated. The point is, I personally regret very much not jumping back in maybe 4 years ago, but I also find it hard to justify overpaying for a cramped and small space to live in when I currently rent for much less. No, I’m not renting a 2400sq ft house for $1800 a month like some bears have disclosed, but my rent is far lower than the equivalent mortgage even had I bought this apartment in 2010. I do wish I could be like mls watch and move somewhere where… Read more »
StupidityCheck
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StupidityCheck

Shut up, you idiot.

tokyorealestateman
Guest
tokyorealestateman

even if it corrects–by how much? 10-20 percent–at that point the buyer will step in there.
Anyway–I thinks its a bad idea to sell good real estate–i never sell–just add to it.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
I remain surprised by what we have witnessed in the last 3 years in particular (on top of the madness that preceded it). That said, I’ve found in some ways that my life is easier now that anything I would remotely consider living in is at a price point I wouldn’t even begin considering. And anything at the upper bounds of what I’d be comfortable paying is hilariously insufficient (too small, too far). These days I feel very *ahem* detached. While I never really felt FOMO, I am now getting a perverse enjoyment out of the fact that my long-held concerns have gone spectacularly mainstream. I’ve increased my income about five fold in the last six years, yet buying where I’d like to buy feels LESS attainable. I have no idea how this will all play out, but it’s fun… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

how does restricting supply help with decreasing prices? Just because someone feel it’s morally right? If rent control didn’t help renters, what makes you think price control will help home buyers?

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

You seem to have confused my last points as advocating for that particular position. I did not. I said that I am very interested to see the outcome if/when someone does start advocating the position I listed in #2 as I believe it will really get to the bottom line on this issue: not immigration or race, but dollars and cents. Not sure if we’ll see that happen in the mainstream prior to the provincial election, but we’ll see.

As to actually discussing your opinions on policies, your misrepresentations, non sequiturs, and reflexive combativeness kind of make that a waste of time.

[This is your cue to attack racist posters on this blog that I have in no way defended.]

space889
Member
space889

Whatever…

if you don’t make your point clear, it’s your problem, not the readers.

Regardless, how do you propose to decrease prices if you don’t allow supply to increase? Demand sure isn’t going away or go negative even if you limit immigration.

And good luck trying to advocate for lower home prices….how would you like it if some gov’t want to implement policy to take away 10% of your wealth every year to distribute to the poor in the name of fairness? I doubt you will like or support it, even if you think the poor should be helped.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

If this was bought by a developer I can’t see any profit for them at this point. Sold for 2.3m and another 800K to build out a duplex, so they are now in it for 3.1m roughly and could sell each side for say 1.5m on a good day so 3m… add in taxes and fees… no net profit. Bought for speculation only.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

parliament is too busy discussing more important things like right to die legislation. next up, legalization of marijuana.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

‘This used to be Chinatown …’

UBC history professor Henry Yu argues to keep chinatown chinese. This is the same prof that argued that kits is too white.

sinification continues unabated. learn mandarin or move to vancouver island. the mainland is for mainlanders.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-this-used-to-be-chinatown

paulb
Member

New
202
Sold
289
TI:8306

http://www.paulboenisch.com

8888888
Guest
8888888
Delta Charlie
Guest
Delta Charlie

What a joke Vancouver is and its houses prices…

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Seriously? Who would buy a dump like that in Beverly Hills when you could get an ordinary house in Burnaby for the same price.

Delta Charlie
Guest
Delta Charlie

US aircraft intercepted, South China Sea tensions rise again
CBC.ca – 27m ago
Two Chinese fighter jets carried out an “unsafe” intercept of a U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea, the Pentagon said on Wednesday, a further escalation of tensions in and around the contested waterway.
http://goo.gl/n5uUru

space889
Member
space889

They should have shot it down instead?

dyugle
Guest
dyugle

This is exactly what needs to be done. You would not invest in the stock market if it was regulated by the stock brokers. Funny thing is it used to be, but Ponzi schemes exposed the need for an independent regulator with the ability to fine and jail. The jurisdiction of the stock market regulator should be extended to the housing market. But they will not do it until it crashes, otherwise it would be political suicide.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Houses are easier to value than stocks, so not a great comparison. It’s the buyers who are the problem with real estate, not the transaction facilitators.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

I am sorry… I completely disagree with you here. I would argue that the complete opposite is true regarding your statement of easier valuation of houses (Real estate) vs stocks.

Land is almost entirely priced by perceived value, and potential use. No direct productivity can be derived from it (especially in the case of residential real estate), and is only valuable (more or less so) based on the perception of the next potential buyer.

Stocks (and more specifically the underlying companies which they represent) on the other hand have a myriad of quantifiable metrics that help determine what the valuation should be. Furthermore, in the case of good stocks/good companies, they actually add value to the over all economy by employing people, increasing gdp and encouraging the training and education of the general population.

space889
Member
space889

You have obviously never done any stock analysis nor NPV calculation.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Yeah you must be right… again… you are so good at this Space!

space889
Member
space889

Uhm…the stock market is regulated by the brokers. Where do you think the head and senior mgmt of the various enforcement agency like SEC come from? Brokers firm! Where do you think most of the junior people working in those agency aspire to be? Brokers making 3x to 10x salary. They just make some scene about enforcing the law every now and then, but protect their buddies always. Has a single senior people from a bank involved in the crash, HFT, market manipulation, LIBOR / FX / Gold rigging from any major banks went to jail? That would be a NO.

dyugle
Guest
dyugle
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Metro Vancouver real estate is like the lottery, says study”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/metro-vancouver-ccpa-lottery-1.3588159

“Profits for homeowners are ‘more like lottery winnings than a reward for hard work’ says study’s author”

Like, duh.

space889
Member
space889

Only in the amount of money….other than that, comparison is bull….chances of winning lottery jackpot is lower than being struck by lightening twice & survive.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

I totally agree with you here Space.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“U.S. Federal Reserve ready to hike interest rate in June”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-reserve-june-interest-rate-1.3587906

“The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as firming inflation and employment, according to minutes from the U.S. central bank’s April policy meeting released on Wednesday.”

“In the wake of the news, the Canadian dollar sold off sharply against the U.S greenback. The loonie dropped 0.71 of a U.S. cent to close at 76.79 cents US. “

space889
Member
space889

I believe it when I see it, especially given that every other major central banks are now talking about helicopter money as a SERIOUS next policy move.

And even if they did raise, that 25bps is not going to make people stopping RE or sell. If anything it will increase RE as people take advantage of the locked in low rate like before.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Again, right on the money Space.. or should I say, mo-money, MO-Real estate! Fist pump!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“TSX falls on lower commodities; Canadian dollar declines on Fed minutes”, NEWS 1130

http://www.news1130.com/2016/05/18/toronto-stock-exchange-rises-slightly-dollar-down-in-morning-trading/

“The Toronto stock market fell almost 100 points Thursday in the face of declining commodity prices, while Wall Street trading was muted amid growing signs of a possible June rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”

ChinaOne
Guest
ChinaOne

You dummy. It foreign cousin money causing prices higher. Not rates.

We ant your blonde women work as maid in our houses.

Wait and see. Already we can provide shelter for alternative payment. We will own you and you won’t even know it.

space889
Member
space889

Only if they are hot…no fugly with leathery or bad skins from too much sun tanning.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Haha yeah totally Space! Fuck those lazy sun tanning gwai low bitches! You deserve only the alabaster skinned white ladies! I totally hear ya!

space889
Member
space889

As long as I don’t have to pay for their skin cancer treatment via taxes or look at them, sun tan away….

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

like the Aquilini condo ad , a world class community inspired by the spirit of play.!!
pictures of people jogging and playing soccer

what exactly does world class vancouver have to offer.???…..pay a fortune for housing because you can go jogging and play soccer .

vancouver trying to sell itself is getting more funny …..im pretty sure you can go jogging in Atlanta too , odds are it wont be in the rain either .

8888888
Guest
8888888

The Chinese don’t care ,they just like saying world class to their comrades in China.

space889
Member
space889

The future of sports is mental sports like Poker and e-sports. Running, soccer are so yesterday, unless you are talking about Wii / Xbox Kinetic Running / Soccer / etc.

Read that story about UBC e-sports winning championship 2nd year in a row and getting $180K in scholarships.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Right on Space! I have been campaigning this with local school boards for years?!!? DOWN WITH PhysEd! Up with Chess! Preach it!

patriotz
Member

Taiwan, the place to be a woman in politics

Because it’s… well it is Chinese.

space889
Member
space889
@CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName – You said that politicians should listen to people who actually live and work here and do what’s best in their interest. I countered with the argument that majority of the people who actually live and work here are actually home owner, who despite what they may say about high housing prices, would NOT want their own hard earned equity to go down. So politicians are doing exactly what their voters want them to do. It’s mostly the young under-35 population who are mostly pissed off about the high housing cost and unfortunately for them, they don’t vote as much as the older population, and they don’t participate in the political process nor give as much bribes as the older voters. When’s the last time you heard a 20 something donating $50K to BC Lib? Lastly, our system does… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Also, keep in mind that cooling housing would be a massive short term hit to the general economy and the youngest people would be the first to be unemployed. Nobody is going to enjoy paying the piper for this one.

space889
Member
space889
Depends on the company. I know some IT companies lay off the highest paid engineers first, save for a few star ones, and keep the much much lower paid and OT willing young ones. But in general, young people get the shaft, just like in US where almost all jobs recovered in the last few years went to 55+. That’s why sometimes I do laugh at the bears like team BPOM who can’t wait for a big crash in China that will cause a big crash here and thinking they will somehow escape the knock on economic effects. If they work for gov’t or crown corps then yes they likely would. But then I would consider them to be leeches given how utterly unproductive and useless a lot of them are, especially at crown corps. if they don’t then if/when… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

In the long term, it benefits the young in the same way a forest fire allows for new growth, but the fire itself and the immediate aftermath isn’t much fun for anyone.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Spitting fire Rude-boy!

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Space, you are on fire!!! its like you are in my head pulling out my ideas before I get a chance too!?!? To all those millennials and 30’something young families out there, “Don’t hate the playas, hate the game!” ~ Ice-T

gordholio
Member

Nom Nom Nom, I gotta say it. Your Space-directed posts today are too funny. Totally enjoyable contributions. I actually laughed out loud at the last one.

Space, your never-ending river of BS here on VCI runs deep. Do you ever take a break? You know, to eat? Or sleep? Or work? Or think?

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

I figure the change of tactic couldn’t hurt… Glad I got my joke across.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

I also must say, having jotted down responses to a few of that monkey’s posts, I have finally realised how prolific he is!?!?! I mean serious time goes into his trolling… Psycho-esque amounts of time

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
People I know who are objecting (lots of them) are in their 40s or 50s. That just happens to be because that’s the age group of people I hang around with. Likely you are right that the under 35s are also objecting. I certainly know personally of people who have left town because of it, and these are the creative people, the innovators and makers who were trying to create their own little businesses with plans where they actually added value and created. Some have moved to Kelowna or Alberta or northern BC and some to the states or to Eastern Canada. The people who are sticking around tend to be the ones who have government jobs or who work for giant companies or big box stores and so don’t require a lot of initiative to get along and make… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

Oh I’m sure they are objecting. However, ask your friends if they would support policies that cut their housing prices by say 35% so young people can buy. I doubt many of those 45+, and especially 55+, would be willing to take that hit.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I do ask them, including the late 70 somethings that bought 40 years ago for three times their then annual salary. And they think the present policies are abominable and indeed wouldn’t care if the price of their west side home fell a few hundred thousand. In many cases they have sold by now, but in some cases, they are afraid. Afraid of not finding a place to go if they sell. Yet they need the money. They think Vancouver is ruined.

As for the ones in their 40s, they decided to buy in Washington State and in Kelowna. Another couple is in way way over their heads.

space889
Member
space889

They don’t care if their $5M west side house fell a few hundred K. Wow…that’s generous of them and it would totally make that house now affordable to a professional family of doctors / lawyers or bears.

No, if they seriously want affordable housing, and SFH for young professional families, their house prices need to fall by like 75%. That’s a different story. Or, they allow massive densification, which I doubt they will actually do.

realist
Member
realist
A good commentary by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph on the recent important People’s Daily article about China’s debt: “China’s Communist Party Goes Way of Qing Dynasty as Debt Hits Limit—-Impending Adjustment Will Set Off International Earthquake” http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/chinas-communist-party-goes-way-of-qing-dynasty-as-debt-hits-limit-impending-adjustment-will-set-off-international-earthquake/ “Hence the fevered speculation about this strange article published on May 9 in the house journal of the Politburo. It was no ordinary screed…The 11,000 character text – citing an “authoritative person” – was given star-billing on the front page. It described leverage as the “original sin” from which all other risks emanate, with debt “growing like a tree in the air”…It warned of a “systemic financial crisis” and demanded a halt to the “old methods” of reflexive stimulus every time growth falters. “It is neither possible nor necessary to force economic growing by levering up,” it said.” “Most think the… Read more »
space889
Member
space889
Well all those construction is creating or maintaining jobs right now which is needed. Putting aside the issue of debt and systematic risk for a minute, yes I know they are important. The increase in housing supply means extra supply coming into markets / countries, which despite all the talk about empty homes & ghost cities, is actually still short of critical housing stock. A lot of people in China are still living in pretty old housing stock done in the 60s & 70s or simply living in very crowded living arrangements. These people should ideally move into more modern and up to date housing units. The buying frenzy is doing a good job of absorbing all the empty housing units on the market as well, so it’s not a bad thing if you think empty homes & ghost units… Read more »
Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

You say this in regards to China – “Crashing housing prices means a lot of people, especially the young & disenfranchised, can now buy that apartment they always wanted / needed.” – and note that it might lead to some very necessary societal re-calibration.

And literally right above (and posted only a few minutes later) you talk about how young people get screwed in a downturn, laugh at bears who think they’ll make it through a crash unaffected, and say:
“Crash may sounds nice, but it really only benefits the already wealthy with spare capital lying around. That was demonstrated clearly with the US crash.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Took the words out of my mouth, Royce.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

[Shrugs]

Two hard-coded Space traits created this situation: 1) reflexively attacking anyone with a bearish POV/ perceived past racist intent and 2) reflexively posting pro-China messages. Here we are.

Dare to dream, but maybe by having the incoherence so closely laid out together – and so obviously apparent – perhaps he will have some pause. Maybe it will help him realize that the reason he is the most popular choice for an IP ban is not racism, but it is actually because this level of incoherence is on display across literally every VCI thread – and it accounts for about 15-20% of the posting volume on this entire site.

space889
Member
space889

Only the moronic bears who can’t see the whole pictures, and the racist ones who think it is all Chinese fault, with the latter seem to be in the majority these days. Interestingly they are also the biggest cry babies when someone calls out their bullshit and cries about wanting people to be banned.

I find it interesting that the more wrong the bears get, the more they dug in their heels and refuse to admit they are wrong, and it’s must be someone’s fault. Such myopic views.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Is it better to be myopic or flat-out self-contradictory (within 5 minutes no less)? Just curious.

And for the record: many posters to this site have freely admitted that they have been wrong about how spectacularly out of reach prices would become.

Carry on.

space889
Member
space889

Different situation, different outcomes. Simple as that.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Sure thing.

space889
Member
space889

Gee…I don’t know, maybe because China currently has a 20% saving rate, not a 0% saving rate?

That kind of makes a difference you know?

And there is a tightening of labour market due to the one child policy, and wages are rapidly growing in a lot of sectors, by 5% to 10%/yr recently, unlike here?

Ever thought about those? Maybe the dynamics in China is not the same as the dynamics in Canada and hence there could be very different outcomes to a house shock?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

With a minimum wage of a buck an hour, I’m glad there is some wage growth.

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

20% of the annual average wage of $10000 USD.. wow

space889
Member
space889

You two just demonstrates that you know jack squat about wages in China.

Average skilled worker wage (eg. IT, programmer, consultants, etc) is about 10K RMB/month which is over $2K CAD now. That’s base salary before bonus and special project bonuses. And another good thing about China is that the wage that’s quoted to you is what you get – tax already deducted. Unlike in Canada where a $100K salary is not really $100K salary cuz there is all those taxes, medical insurances, etc, and you are likely to only get 65% in the end.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

2K CAD a month! Jeaze, I didn’t realize it was that high. I can totally see how you can buy multi million dollar houses abroad on that kind of money.

space889
Member
space889

So people making average wage in Vancouver are buying SFH??

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Until 10-12 years ago.. Yes, yes it did… as it has in our society for generations.

vanvic
Guest
vanvic
8888888
Guest
8888888
realist
Member
realist

Other than the reversal of the seasons, this recent article in the Guardian about the Auckland housing market could substitute “Vancouver” for “Auckland” and you wouldn’t blink.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/17/new-zealand-housing-crisis-forces-hundreds-to-live-in-garages-tents-and-cars

“New Zealand housing crisis forces hundreds to live in tents and garages. Property prices in Auckland have increased by nearly 80% in five years, leaving some families unable to buy or rent”

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

I am sure the crib can fit in the living room. Why the bathroom? Isn’t it a bit dramatically!

Pips
Guest
Pips

Nope! 19 month old sleeping in the living room means that everyone goes to bed at 7 and hides in their bedrooms for both of his mid-day naps.
My 18 month old and 2 year old were sharing a room, but are having behavioral problems so my 2 year old is sleeping in a play pen in the entrance way. And I am hiding in my bedroom.
Parenthood!

Bear Vancouverite
Guest
Bear Vancouverite
Just a thought exercise for all of us, bear and bull alike. I don’t see any signs of prices popping in Vancouver/Toronto this year. I do suspect prices will continue to accelerate into 2017 and possibly further. No one can predict these things of course but here are my observations so far: non-bearish indicators: 1) We’re at historic low inventories 2) Any new stock coming online is being absorbed incredibly fast. listings show up and are sold within a week, often over asking. 3) Bidding wars. For townhouses even. 4) Interest rates are unlikely to rise much, if at all in Canada this and next year. Most investors don’t even really believe in the US’ June hike even after the recent Fed minutes. Some bears here have made fun of the CAD dropping as the US raises rates. Is it… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

It’s a waste of resource to build condos that nobody lives in. However, I do believe that investor resources are limited. So if you want affordable pricing for family in the quickest possible way, without urban sprawl, then massively increasing the supply of condos & attached townhomes are the way to go. Along with minimum standards like a bedroom must be say 150 sq ft with minimum 5 ft per side, minimum 40% 2 bedrooms, etc, etc.

Build enough of them and prices will fall as investors can’t afford to continuously buy them and leave them empty. Thus builders will have to cut prices to move inventory. Also, all the amateur investors will have to chase a smaller pool of renters which means lower rent as well.

mlS watch
Guest
mlS watch

I do not feel sorry for those boomers who want to sell and are afraid of not finding another place. For god’s sake, if I were given 2 million dollars, I would retire immediately in one of the many less expensive amazing beautiful places that abound in BC. Downtown housing is needed by those working here. Talking about entitlement…

Ulsterman
Member

The problem is if prices correct 30% they end up where they were about 18 months ago, assuming they’ve risen 30% in the past 12 months. Even a 50% haircut still leaves my rental where it was 3 years ago when i was reading bear blogs assuming the top simply MUST be in. A 75% catastrophe would take my rental back to where it was about 10 years ago. It’s a pyrrhic victory for us bears if it ever does come.

For the record, my SFH rental was bought for 300k in 1999 and would go today for $2.5m. I know this because the house across the street on a slightly smaller lot sold a few days ago for $2.3 and my rental was consistently assessed at 200k more than that one.

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Canadian rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. Both 5yr and 10yr Canadian bonds are at an all time low. There is no evidence they were affected by the drop in CAD and I don’t see how they would be affected by a US rate hike. (see: http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield and http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-10-year-bond-yield) Right now a 5yr fixed mortgage can be had for 2.5% (below the already outrageously 2.69% from last year). In fact if the bank considers one is well capitalized they can offer a rate of as low as 1.8% for 5 yr fixed (I know of one person who has one of these rates from HSBC). Not advertised as it would induce more outrage – but available. Low rates like this bring more and more people to feed off the debt trough. If the interest rates don’t drop more… Read more »
would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer

I am not sure if the Canadian government is stupid or just naive. Who is righting this ship? The US said NO to Anbang and we roll out the red carpet. I am seriously worried about our government officials. Canada is for sale to corrupt Chinese officials. Fucking unbelievable.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/commercial-real-estate/ottawa+approves+chinese+firm+anbang/11931225/story.html

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Kind of difficult not to allow Chinese development firms to buy Canadian property when Canadian development firms, owned by employee pension funds, have been investing heavily in Chinese real estate;

“Ivanhoé Cambridge Inc doubles exposure in Chinese market through investment in Chongbang”

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/ivanhoe-cambridge-doubles-exposure-in-chinese-market-through-up-to-us500-million-investment-in-shanghai-real-estate-developer

You invest in my bubble – I’ll invest in yours. And so the world turns.

tokyorealestateman
Guest
tokyorealestateman

question to the experts–Can i get Canadian real estate financing backed by my 6 figures securities account–brings in dividends every month?

tokyorealestateman
Guest
tokyorealestateman

question to the experts–Can i get Canadian real estate financing backed by my 6 figures securities account–brings in dividends every month?

space889
Member
space889

Why not just ask the bank as they are the final decision makers. The “experts” on this blog don’t get to decide on your mortgage approval.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Enjoying a family vacation in SoCal, went for a walk and picked up a flyer for an open house: 4 bdrm 5 bath 3500sqft mid century modern with pool and views. The whole place was meticulously renovated 3 years ago and is reduced 285K to $1.1M…we could probably get it for under $1M said the realtor. Oh yea, it rents for $2800/week through a property manager who does does everything (actual range is $2000-5000/week depending on season) My wife just asked if I can find a job here…guess it’s time to start looking!

Ulsterman
Member

a week?!!?? I don’t understand why anyone would pay $11,000/month to rent a place that can be bought for half the price

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Vacation rental I would suspect

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

While I think the price point is particularly high in terms of this being a vacation rental (as noted by WoB), I also think it’s worth noting that $1M properties often rent for over $4k in markets where high prices are a reflection of actual demand for a place to actually live in (and not for a place to speculatively invest or launder money).

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