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Friday Free-for-all! Happy Canada Day!

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106 Comments

It’s that time of the week and that time of the summer.

Long weekend time, Happy Canada Day!

This is our regular Friday Free-for-all post – an open topic discussion thread for the weekend and news round up.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–“outright bubble”
–It’s made of debt!
–“No housing bubble”
–Losses down under
–Auction fail
–Getting out
–Diving in head first
–Brexit & low rates
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend!

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Doomcouver

Victoria homeless camp a symptom of B.C.’s broken housing market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFr6Kl4nWsc

Amazing that it’s politically acceptable to leave your own citizens homeless and at the same time bring in and house 25,000 refugees. The government should be housing Canadians first, then go ahead and let in all the rich immigrants and refugees, not the other way around. I used to be proud to be a Canadian, stories like this make me think otherwise.

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Combat roach

You can’t go around, parade and take selfies with your homeless citizens as opposed to refugees. It is humanitarian marketing used for the self-promotion. “Rich immigrants” are another story related to corruption and money laundering.

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different this time

We cant be too hard on the refugees , there are only 25k of them across the country. They walked out of a 5 year war.

We got about 2000 in the whole Province.

Meanwhile about 500K Millionaire non tax payers have come and harvested our housing like an alien life form eating a weaker species.

the homeless problem was not caused by 2000 refugees.

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Oracle

Ways out of this:

1) end immigration
2) allow free movement of people between the USA and Canada – like the EU

Then prosecute anyone that had power to enact policy and profited from the artificially created housing boom. Including relatives and children.

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Combat roach

Just end immigration from China, cancel all those 10 years visas and deport crooks who cheated and falsified papers to get in Canada. Along the process retro-charge for money laundering and where is no legal proof of money that was exchanged for RE confiscate and straight to the public auction to further fund public needs.

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ostritch

Oracle. Seriously? Canadians are anti-American. I can’t think of one friend of mine that would be into that. In the meantime, they look at me askew if I mention we’re overrun with immigration, lack of housing, funding for healthcare etc. They don’t get it. So your dream is just that.

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HAMster

More Christy shenanigans:

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/frank-carson-victoria-lawyer-appointed-chairman-of-b-c-transit-1.2293779

This guys wife also has ties to the BC Liberals. Let’s keep it all in the family and buy the buses made in China!

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different this time

http://globalnews.ca/video/2804456/betting-on-the-housing-bubble-burst

HERE IS THE INTERVIEW

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BubbleTea

WOW. Great Interview with Marc Cohodes. “Market is going down 50 to 80%” Krusty and the BC Liberals have to go NOW!!!!

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I can’t get to it from Safari, Firefox or Opera, and have tried a few times over the last two hours. I tried following the link and I tried copying and pasting the url. My computer is old so maybe that’s the problem but I’ve been able to see other videos from that site I’m pretty sure (though not today). I will try from another computer at another IP, but perhaps someone could be so kind as to post it in youtube or perhaps reddit another site?

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burntout

Marc Cohodes
On BC GLOBAL this am just nailed it

YVR RE is a money laundering vehicle for the Chinese.
Our politicians are in cahoots with it.
Clark takes realtors on her tour of the Far East. she is completely bought and needs to be kicked out

They have the data won’t release it. Best quote:
“Mike De Jung is full of more crap than a Christmas Turkey!!”

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ostritch

Not every house purchase is stolen money. I’m convinced that in the PRC, stolen money is just for people who have fallen out with their connections, like Wanting Qu’s mother. The rest of the money is from the connected people from the top.

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BubbleTea

Mayor Moonbean’s girl friend, Wanting Qu fears for her mother’s life as trial in China looms.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/world/vancouver-pop-singer-fears-for-her-mothers-life-as-trial-in-china-looms/article30750606/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe
Doesn’t look good cause China’s got a conviction rate of almost 100%, communism at work.

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southseacompany

“Opinion: Vancouver housing bubble will burst”, Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-vancouver-housing-bubble-wil-burst

“All of the public and political discussions about high and rapidly rising house prices in Vancouver are focused on the impact they have on affordability and the problems they cause for young Canadian families wanting to buy a home. This focus on affordability diverts attention from the fact that the development of Vancouver (and Toronto) house prices has all of the characteristics of a classic price bubble, which will burst and bring hardships to many that could dwarf those arising from the affordability crisis.”

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LS in Arbutus

Yes. It’s true. As bad as not being able to afford to live in Vancouver, the fallout from a collapse in prices will be brutal. And sorry guys it will happen. The herd will finally get spooked and change direction.

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southseacompany

“Is a Big Bust Ahead for the Canadian Housing Market?”, Bloomberg video

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-07-04/is-a-big-bust-ahead-for-the-canadian-housing-market

‘The Canadian housing market has been making headlines around the world as prices continue to climb. Are we headed into bubble territory, or is it simply a case of supply and demand? Hilliard Macbeth, author of “When the Bubble Bursts,” and Gregory Klump, CREA chief economist joins Bloomberg TV Canada’s Rudyard Griffiths to debate this topic.”

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patriotz

“Are we headed into bubble territory, or is it simply a case of supply and demand?”

Prices are always set by supply and demand in RE markets as in stock markets, whether or not there is a bubble. Another case of the writer not understanding what supply and demand actually are (they are not the total stock of housing versus the total number of households).

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

True, and yet the supply and demand functions for housing are nonetheless partially determined by total housing stock and number of households, respectively, are they not?

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Knowing the number of houses/apartments in existence provides no information about supply unless you know in addition how many are available for use. Somebody could build 10 houses to look at and thereby fail to add to the supply. And “household” can be defined in various ways. Does a UBC student count as a household if he lives with his parents in Hope for four months of the year but in Vancouver for eight? (Sorry, did I get that right, patriotz?)

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would-be buyerl

WTF?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/vancouver-pop-singer-fears-for-her-mothers-life-as-trial-in-china-looms/article30750606/comments/

Ms. Qu’s mother has been in detention for almost 2 years and there is no reporting of this in VA? Ms. Qu goes on with her life with Major Moonbeam without care that her mother could be sentenced to death? Her mother risking everything to send Ms. Qu to VA to live a life of luxury? What am I missing? Ms. Qu reads like a sociopath and our Major is dating her.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

She’s hasn’t accomplished enough of what the PRC wanted her to accomplish and now they are putting the pressure on or helping out a bit.

Or in an alternative reality, she’s a typical citizen with a devoted but sometimes troublesome mother, a mother who through her hard work accidentally got in the way of an oppressive government, who found her way to Vancouver and fell into the arms of the married mayor.

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Combat roach

Do communist regimes press and blackmail relatives abroad by thretening their families at home in exchange for secret and security sensitive information?

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Oracle

Atlantic Canada to double immigration levels because Mcallum and Trudeau signed off on it today.

I think these clowns are toast.

Where the duck do they think these immigrants are going to end up? Halifax. Yeah fucking right.

Immigrant consultants will apply for them there, as soon as they land they will be in Vancouver or Toronto.

Fucking morons know this too. Time to demand an end to immigration via a referendum.

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CityObserver

CRASH IT CRASH IT CRASH IT. Organize 100 people (who promise not to break ranks by offering higher prices or competing with the others in the group) to go around and start making lowball offers at carefully picked properties-for-sale. Get a trusted financial advisor to estimate best numbers to offer for maximum effect. If a lowball accepted, then buyer take the property. If not accepted, buyer does not offer any higher nor compete with others.

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paulb

New
408
Sold
224
TI:8496

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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different this time

Larry isn’t doing the AVERAGE price stuff right after the end of month.
Anyone have a number?
Thanks

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

What do the numbers even mean anymore? Nothing. Since (1) the market is open to endless nonresident foreigners or resident nontaxpayers with endless money (relatively speaking), and since (2) there are apparently large amounts of corruption at various points in the system, and lots of scamming in the getting prices from buyers, the numbers mean nothing. They’re just a joke — they don’t carry any information.

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VanRant

Fintrac getting tough?
“Everything in the real estate business has changed. Everything.”
The Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) enforces a law that says real estate agents must identify their clients and verify where their money is coming from. They must report any large cash transactions. They must also be on the lookout for suspicious financial actions and refer them to the authorities. This cannot be ducked or avoided. It is the law and woe to you if you ignore it.
http://www.remonline.com/publishers-page-everything-in-the-real-estate-business-has-changed/

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squeak

Oh, it has? Must identify their clients? If not, may be a 2 dollar fine? Verify where the money is coming from? Ok, it is coming from xyz country. Yes? Now you know where it is coming from. We complied. Oh, yes, report large cash trans actions: Ok.. here is 5million dollars in cash. Reported. That is nice. Complied. Look out for anything “suspicious”. LOL. What exactly do they consider “suspicious” these days? I think this whole honking country is suspicious. Lack of transparency is blinding, a media that is tranquilized by money, people that don’t dare speak what they think in fear of being ousted for a variety of invented reason that are fuelled by .. yes you guessed it.. money. It has gone pathetic. And “refer” them to the “authorities”? What authorities?? These “authorities” are dysfunctional. But of… Read more »

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VanRant

We will find out if Fintrac has any teeth or if its for real very fast. If its for real, it could be a game changer with all the dirty money thats has been flooding into the lower mainland housing.

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BubbleTea

They did fine a big bank 1.1 mill earlier this year and thats a 100% more than Krusty and Justin had done.

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Tiny slap on the wrist.

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ChinaOne

We pay off government bureaucrat official and your leader. Then more my cousin can come and buy houses.

Your people let us. We own all detached house in Vancouver in 10 year. Then your women work in our house. Yayayaya

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patriotz

“and verify where their money is coming from”

Which is ABC bank in Canada via a transfer from XYZ bank in Canada. That’s all you get. Obviously no private party is going to be able to dig any further.

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patriotz

Oops XYZ in China, of course.

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Fintrac has been around for a long time. With the same mandates. Nothing has ‘changed’.

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southseacompany

“The one quick way to cool the GTA housing market: Mayers”, Toronto Star
https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2016/06/29/the-one-quick-way-to-cool-the-gta-housing-market-mayers.html

“There’s little point in Finance Minister Bill Morneau studying what to do about over heated housing. He already knows the answer.”

“the quickest way to cool the housing market is to invite Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz down to the office and agree to let interest rates rise.”

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patriotz

That’s the quickest way to cool the whole Canadian economy, including the parts that are already in the freezer. Just slash the CMHC limit – and he doesn’t have to get the BoC to go along.

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franko

You’re living in the past Patrioz. Long gone are the days of tight money supply when central bankers could spur the economy by juggling rates. The world is awash with money, and all efforts by central bankers to kick-start their economies for the past 8 years have been utterly futile, even as they flirt with negative rates.
A quarter point hike by the BoC would affect the economy about as much as flogging a dead horse, but it would certainly send alarm bells through the housing market.

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patriotz

Leading the US on interest rate increases will certainly hurt the economy in many sectors. I don’t think the low rates are accomplishing anything, but Canada cannot buck the US in raising them.

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southseacompany

“Brexit fears push back hopes of US interest rate rise to 2018”, The telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/02/brexit-fears-push-back-hopes-of-us-interest-rate-rise-to-2018/

“A surge in US hiring will not be enough to prompt a Federal Reserve interest rate rise this year or next, investors believe, as ripple effects work their way across the Atlantic.”

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southseacompany

“Why smart money is still investing in Canadian houses: Don Pittis”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-brexit-negative-interest-1.3659726

“Sorry, young house hunters. It turns out the overpriced home you were hoping to buy isn’t just a place to live. Now, maybe more than ever, houses are a financial investment.”

“In fact, a new flood of money into the global economy from central banks in an attempt to counteract the depressing effect ot the Brexit vote only makes putting cash into real estate a sounder financial investment.”

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HAMster

It is not a bubble if all agree it is not a bubble.

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Londonernow

Who keeps saying that Vancouver house prices are locally driven?

“Realtors Pitch Vancouver to Soak Up Capital Flight From Brexit”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/realtors-pitch-vancouver-to-soak-up-capital-flight-from-brexit

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Zero Down Forty

Realtors will pitch anything to sell a home; HAM, locals, interest rates will never go down, land is running out, Brexit, Boomer parents, fake asian sisters, immigration … the list goes on.

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burntout

Even though Marc lives in Sand Fran area he has taken our crazy market of bought politicians and money launderers to heart.

Worth following his tweets. He just nails old Christy

https://twitter.com/alderlaneeggs

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

What is the best way to protect myself from the popping bubble (in addition to renting)? Should I go see if my mutual funds include mortgage companies? Should I make sure investment funds are divested of Canadian banks?

Marc Cohodes, do you do any direct advising of little people? I’d be happy to work at the chicken farm for a few days in exchange. I could wash the eggs or feed the hens. I’m really perplexed about what to do.

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ostritch

If you are thinking like this my opinion is a) stop reading this blog b) get a financial advisor to keep you from going over a cliff. Just because someone says something scary doesn’t mean you should do anything.

I’m afraid you have a strong confirmation bias and that’s going to get you in trouble. That’s why you’re here and why you’re attracted to a short seller. He could very well lose his trousers on this bet and he has won and lost many times before. The losing part being very very painful.

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burntout

March Cohodes the ‘big Short’ genius who shorted US housing, says Vancouver RE is heading for a cliff. Says it is all Chinese Laundered money and laughs at out Premier’s actions. “Like pissing on a house fire”

that pretty much sums up our Premier alright

http://www.news1130.com/2016/07/01/former-hedge-fund-owner-vancouver-housing-market/

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I\'m With Stupid V

He has also said
He insists he has no interest in betting broadly against the Canadian economy, or trying to short the big banks. “They’re well-run, they’re diversified and they’re too big to fail by the Canadian government,”

So basically he is only shorting HCG, while making it sound like the country is going under.

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Best place on meth

““People need to get upset, protest, speak up, and speak out about what’s going on,” he argues. “I was there when the Canucks lost the Stanley Cup. They were mighty pissed off when the hockey team lost, so I think this a lot more important than that.”

What a city, people here riot over a hockey game but sit quietly as we’re taken over by foreigners – the scummiest kind of foreigners.

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patriotz

“laughs at out Premier’s actions. “Like pissing on a house fire””

Christy isn’t pissing on the fire, she’s pouring gas on it. I assume he hasn’t looked into her policies in detail as I think he’s smart enough to get it if he did.

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richmond, lol

Handicapped Parking Violator Busted!!

“In my culture, I have a parking lot guy”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfIZgwUzgu4

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southseacompany

“Housing bubble worries banks” CTV news
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=884318

Note fake asian buyers ‘Lee sisters’ make a brief appearance.

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Oracle

IMO, there is only one way out of this now.

End immigration. No amount of taxing homes will help now. Over 1 million 10 year visitor visas were issued in the last 12 months.

Rents are going to go through the roof in Vancouver over the coming year. Not trolling here. Watch and see.

We must end immigration or every “have not ” person better turn crooked in order to provide for their families.

These politicians and their offspring who inherit the corrupt money should be held responsible.

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Tim

If you’re right, it doesn’t necessarily mean we need to “end immigration”. We just need to end loopholes for somebody else’s 0.1%. Traditional immigration, including refugee claims, has worked well for many decades.

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Sellnoworbeprucedin4evah

+100

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ostritch

If he’s right, loopholes ain’t the problem.

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ostritch

Oracle not to doubt you but where can I substantiate your numbers? And what does this visitor visa allow a person to do? Can they work? Can they stay a limited number of months per year? I once knew but now I forget.

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burntout

BC Liberals get big money. You can understand all Christy’s policy decisions by seeing who paid the bills

http://www.integritybc.ca/?page_id=2116

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HAMster

Talking with a guy I know just sold their Burnaby townhouse for over asking. Three offers but the highest had subject to financing so they went with the next highest. But realtor says I can squeeze them, so she says to the buyers: “there are multiple offers can you come up?” So they offer another $15K but it was for nothing because the seller would have taken their initial offer. So they just spent an extra $15K they didn’t need to. It was not technically a lie, but it sure was unethical. And the stupid buyers fell for it.

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I\'m With Stupid V

Heres how it works.

1.Realtor has an open house. (Which actually results in sales these days as opposed to fishing for new clients scheme and lookie-loos)
2.Tells everyone we are having a blind bid meaning you get one bid and you wont know how much anyone else has bid.
3.Everyone overshoots, even if there is only one buyer, that person overbids because they believe they have to to win the bidding war. They are only allowed one bid so they make it their best.
4.Sells for over asking.
5.New price is set for the area/unit.
6.Rinse and repeat.
7.Oh yah almost forgot, blame offshore money.

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patriotz

” it sure was unethical”

The job of the seller’s agent is to get the highest price for the seller. The seller’s obligation to the buyer is not to tell them anything that isn’t true. IMHO the agent would be unethical if they didn’t use every legitimate means to get the highest price.

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