Friday Free-for-all! July 15th 2016

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another friday free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Only Toronto and Vancouver?
Rates stay steady
CRA crackdown on RE
Pauls stats

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

The knock on effect.

Vancouver is screwed for sure. The price of housing has increased beyond what wages can pay. The disconnect makes it harder to grow businesses here so it is hard to see how wages will catch up.

OTOH, huge numbers of average folks who sold their homes to foreigners are now millionaires for retirement. The question is – where will they take the money? Many nice places in BC with good health care and good weather where $1 million lets you live like a king (Kelowna, Comox Valley, etc.)

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I would leave BC altoghether if I had cashed out such a lottery ticket.

If I’m going to live in a banana republic under a thoroughly corrupt goverment, I’d rather be somewhere warm with good beaches and smiling people.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

Everyone says that. Few people do. Why? Grandkids. Friends. Existing doctors, etc. Access to Canadian hospitals.

david
Guest
david

The truly honest answer is that your government makes it too financially punitive for anyone to go to the US, where the standard of living of the average person makes Canada look like Romania.

The rest is classic Canadian denial and BS.

patriotz
Member

The fact is that there are over 1 million Canadian citizens living in the US, far more than in any other country. Also what’s your definition of “average person”?

david
Guest
david

‘In 2012, approximately 801,000 Canadian immigrants resided in the United States, comprising about 2 percent of the total U.S. foreign-born population”.
–Migration Policy Institute

You’re an idiot and a liar.

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Big talk. You should probably just leave then.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

I did

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Great! Here is a cookie.

patriotz
Member

” where $1 million lets you live like a king (Kelowna, Comox Valley, etc.)”

It’s been a long time since you could “live like a king” on just a mil anywhere in Canada, never mind the country’s most expensive communities for their size.

david
Guest
david

The ‘windfall’ is in paltry C$, and leaving Canada is complex and financially punitive. Given that, where do you go? Few Vancouverites have any ability or desire to live through a real Canadian winter in any of the total of 6 other ‘major’ (urrppp…) cities .

The only halfway liveable urban location in Canada has been sold off to the highest criminal bidder, and spinning the ‘silver lining’ of this short-sighted frenzy as a ‘great life opportunity’ for those who cashed out is pathetic.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Sick and tire of the bullshit that’s is happening in Vancouver with the Mainland Chinese immigrants. They have turned this beautiful, once livable city into a three ring circus. Money laundering through our RE and the three levels of government have not done a thing about it. 10’s of thousands of corrupt officials, money launders, criminals from China now living in Vancouver. Just a message to Justin, stop all immigration from China.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

Start with plugging the Quebec loophole!

patriotz
Member

BC can take care of the problem itself by charging a penalty tax on buyers of expensive houses who don’t pay appropriate income tax. As I said, if BC is not willing to take action on this, why should the Feds or Quebec?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Not just stop it, but reverse it.

Send the shit back.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Today I was just explaining to someone who works in sales/service at one of the businesses on Granville what a loonie is. I had asked for some change in loonies, if she had it, and she didn’t know what I was asking for though at first she said “yes of course” thinking that I was asking whether I could pay in change, perhaps. I asked several times whether she had enough loonies and finally saw that she did not know the word “loonie”. I explained that it was the name for a Canadian one dollar coin, and that it was a slang expression. I repeated myself a couple times. And then I asked “did you ever hear that before?” and she said “No”. And then I said “you know where it is from? Guess.” and she recognized the word “from”… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I forgot to add: this woman was nice enough. I liked her. But I wonder a lot about what it going on with the ownership of the business, which seems to change hands a lot and never to hire anyone who knows English for some reason.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

It is likely a money laundering front.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

There are shitload of such retards in the city. A madhouse full of useless waste.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

No birds left in China but lots of dirty old men who try to pick up young chicks. Hahahahha.

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

I am sure that made you feel all righteous and big.
Good for you, you get a cookie!

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

@I\’m with Stupid V

You don’t care that people don’t know really basic simple cultural facts about Canada? Not even ones pertaining to their line of business? Srsly?

Or are you saying you’re not impressed by people talking to each other about anything other than the bare minimum of what it takes for an economic transaction.

Or… I get it…without knowing me, you think you know how I feel. Wonder what that projection would be based upon

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Not all the money is criminal or laundered. People don’t get that. If you own a factory there and Canada let’s you immigrate here you’ve committed no crime. However, if you move your money here in little brown bags on multiple flights, then you’re contravening Chinese and Canadian law and IF you get caught you probably will have to pay some taxes and penalties.

So who are the clowns and who set up this circus?

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Yah!

DaMann
Member
DaMann

Another thing that pisses me off is our Canadian banks openly flouting Chinese banking laws. I read an article where a CIBC bank manager was helping organize smurfs ( tens or hundreds of people to each move out the $50 k limit) so their client can get the money out of China. Can you imagine the uproar if China was flouting our Canadian banking laws like that? Yet again all levels of Government turn a blind eye. Where the hell are our journalists? Why are they not digging this stuff up and getting it more out there?

The rot has set in so deep and for so long it’s as if no one cares about corruption anymore. It’s as if it’s accepted in Vancouver / Canada. It’s really unbelievable how far Vancouver/BC/Canada has sunk.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

You serious? How do you think our mining industry works? Vancouver mining companies routinely rape other countries.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I remember there being a big (regional) protest in a south american country against a canadian mining company. I don’t know whether it was about human rights issues, or environmental issues. I wouldn’t mind if the newspapers informed us of ways Canadian-owned companies abroad were being perceived and what their behaviours were. Sometimes the political leadership of a country can be entirely in favor of a foreign-owned company exploiting the resources of a country while people out of power, maybe working people, will be against it. So though I agree with The Man’s reply below to your comment, there is also the kind of circumstance I just described.

The Man
Guest
The Man

Since when do Canadian citizens or firms have to abide by a foreign countries laws?

What are you going on about? It’s not our job to uphold any foreign countries laws, unless we have a specific treaty to do so, and I certainly wouldn’t want my government signing such treaties with any authoritarian regimes.

BTW, neither Chinese banks nor the Chinese government is going to uphold any of our laws either. Remember this guy?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/amanda-zhao-s-killer-gets-reduced-sentence-in-china-1.2692110

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Its open corruption.

Only thing to stop our crooked politicians is to fight back. Enough is enough.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yes, “open corruption” is a good word for it. They think they’re covered but they got no clothes.

Ulsterman
Member
Honestly all this examination of the real estate market just feels like so much navel gazing now. Maybe 5 years ago there was still a chance that a correction of 20-30% would actually make a difference to regular people. Now with the, what, 40% increase in the past year, or 80-100% increase in the past 5 years, any correction still leaves houses out of reach for most people. Will it really make any significant difference if that Port Moody house goes from $1.2m to $700k? That was the price most bears were already calling bubbly and refusing to buy at. I still come back, but to be honest i’m defeated by it all. Coquitlam homes start at $1m. I used to say to my wife that if it never corrects then fuck it, we’ll just suck it up and spend… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
It’s depressing, yes. I feel exploited, actually. And like it has gone on for too long and everything is already destroyed. On the other hand, the BATTLE IS EPIC, absolutely epic, gonna be epic. Already exposure of major wrongdoing and a response of digging in the heels and denial. The giant forces arrayed against those of us wanting Vancouver neighborhoods to be healthy and fore there to be housing for the middle class who live here and are committed to this place, are huge and powerful. As this article linked below shows. http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-company-benefits-from-quebec-cash-for-visa-program Of course there had to be a conduit for those offshore investors coming in through the Quebec program — since so so many came and are continuing to arrive, there would have had to have been an outfit in BC helping them. Its a company offering a… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

problem is you guys got schooled to be wusses. No other nationality in any country would allow what you white people allowed in your own backyard!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Have you not been watching France in the news this year? All the men hiding in shops and cowering behind the counter with the women.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Western civilization is on a suicide mission. You should congratulate us as we are doing so well.

Ulsterman
Member

I agree! The kids in the schools actually refer to whites as stupid round eye. They can’t beleive the place has been sold away/given away so easily.

MarKoz
Member

Ulsterman, you and I feel the same way. I used to say to my wife, fuck it, if the correction never comes and we get kicked out of our rental we’ll just buy in Surrey (which would make my commute bad and hers horrendous). Now?

We pay $2100/month for a single family home in the Main corridor (rent has barely gone up in 10 years) and I don’t even want to think about what would happen if the landlord decides to sell.

Ulsterman
Member
Markoz, shocking similarities. After 5 years i’ll be out of my SFH rental in July 2017. Started at $1800 and the owner just raised the rent to $2100 for my final year. It’s in N Burnaby, duplex lot, and “worth” $2.5m. Your fear is my reality. My ever-trusting wife is now in a frenzy, wondering what the fuck we’re going to do. I used to say exactly what you said. We’ll buy in Surrey. Now I’m actually considering BUYING in Squamish because at least i’ll have my beloved mountain biking, and Whistler only 30 mins from my door. But of course, i’m thinking, “Seriously, i can’t buy NOW at the fucking height of this mania!” But my wife is besides herself at the thought of moving. I’m also thinking i don’t even care if i buy and it goes down,… Read more »
pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
We live in Fraserview, our rent is $2000 for 4 bed bung, great yard (even have a landlord provided gardener!), rent hasn’t increased in the 3 years we’ve lived there (knock on wood). We’re pretty happy where we are but WHAT IF is always the question. Guess we’ll just keep renting until retirement (15 years at earliest), and then probably move away. Have been looking at places in the kootenays, amazing you can buy a decent SFH for $200k in many places. Places where people actually live, work, raise families, don’t have to rely on basement suites or laneway homes to make the mortgage. And no traffic! So that’s the plan, as for buying in YVR, the time has passed for us, I think, and don’t foresee retiring in YVR with the boondoggle it will be and has become. Why… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member
Pricedoutfornow, I’m like you, i COULD get out at 55, 11 years from now, but 16 years is probably more realistic. I’m getting into that weird timeline where i realize that even if i did buy now, i’d have to buy somewhere affordable with a big downpayment to get mortgage free by retirement. I’m running out of working years! If i bought in the kootenays or Penticton i could do it no problem, but i have to figure out how to earn a living there. I just don’t know if i want to raise my kids in the lower mainland only to dash off and buy a place as soon as i retire in the Okanagan or the Kootenays, miles from where they’ll live or be going to school. But my wife thinks we’re doing our kids a disservice even… Read more »
squeak
Member
squeak
I think you (and some other bloggers) have tuned in and got your gutfeeling sorted out and come to the conclusion there is no future in Vancouver or vicinity. Those who are to retire, I think most of their plans are to get out of Vancouver, unless they make the mistake of giving all their house winnings to their kids so they can afford (barely) to live in Vancouver/vicinity, but how are their kids going to fare in all Asian schools and in a corrupt province? Vancouver/Vicinities are Asian. The landscape have changed so tremendously that Canadians feel eliminated from the equation. Corruption and disinterest on the Governments behalf. I would rather invest in an automatic garagedoor opener, heated drive way, snowplow and a high-tech fashionable parka and a lifestyle (snowbird?, holidays, no finance stress) than a killer mortgage ala… Read more »
popgoesthebubble
Member

Same as both of you. My wife is furious as she wanted to buy 4 years ago. We rent in Kerrisdale 4 Bdrm for $3200. If we buy now probably have to move to victoria.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

I also used to be 100% convinced that we were in a bubble that was going to explode spectacularly. I don’t think so any more. Like most people on this site, you seem to want a detached house. But if you look at all the factors contributing to the insane prices, NONE of them are likely to change:

-Interest rates are going to stay near zero for a long time.
-Population growth will continue unabated
-No meaningful number of new houses will be built, mainly due to the ALR
-The QIIP is going nowhere
-Nothing meaningful will happen to reduce HAM
-CMHC guarantees will not go away
-Capital gains exemption on primary residence will remain

The good news is that apartments will remain more-or-less affordable, as supply has kept up with demand. But houses will never again be remotely affordable for an average income earner. Ever.

Newcomer
Member

You would have to see a lot of population growth for that to be the case. Long term, you would have to have all of those existing houses either knocked down and replaced by multi-unit buildings or you would have to have them all occupied by the 1%, while the 99% lived in nearby apartments. In either case, the population needed to support such scenarios would be many times that of Vancouver’s current population. At current growth rates, we are talking about something on the order of a hundred years. It’s not impossible that current conditions will prevail for the next hundred years, with 1%ers snapping up each SFH each time an owner dies, but it’s unlikely.

Ever is a long way out.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

“Ever” is here, today, now.

25 years ago we had 600,000 detached houses in the Lower Mainland. Today we have exactly the same number, but half a million more residents. We will continue add about 30,000 new residents each year, every year, but zero net new houses.

Please explain how detached prices will ever come back to affordable levels for an average earner in such a situation.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

+1

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Overall, housing here is set by the Chinese Politbureau. Whatever they decide to do dictates the market. There is policy and action taken by the people in a panic against policy. IMHO that’s what we’ve just seen: money panicking to get out before the government does something or another. Us honkies will never know.

Then there’s amplification of the market. That is set by Canadian policy like interest rates and debt loads. It’s us who are most at risk; be you owner or renter.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Average Canadian house price of $503,301 in June up 11.2% from year ago”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-housing-june-1.3680458

“Aggregate price is appreciating at the fastest pace since 2006, realtor group says”

“Toronto and Vancouver are certainly driving the gains, but the numbers are strong everywhere”

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I thought Garth said they were down everywhere?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Homebuilders struggle to keep up with Canadian boom” Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/homebuilders-struggle-to-keep-up-with-canada-boom/article30939529/

“The housing boom in Canada’s hottest cities has spilled over into the suburbs, where builders say they are working as fast as they can to meet soaring demand and get homes to market before a much-feared housing bust.”

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Paul,
Either post your daily updates on time.
Or we look for a temporary Asian worker to replace you.
How difficult is it to put a few numbers together.
BTW did you ever get a client from this blog?
Would be surprised with all the loser renters posting here.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Paul,
Further more.
Can you provide us with a weekly update on the state of the Lower
Mainland RE?
Your own opinion, not resurgitating the hype of the RE cartel.
Thanks

PaulBRocks
Guest
PaulBRocks

Go and do one, you fartpanda.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Lifes of locusts…

An unusually high number of Vancouver homeowners living in multi-million dollar neighbourhoods but reporting poverty-level incomes is a red flag that needs immediate government action, says NDP MLA David Eby.

http://m.metronews.ca/#/article/news/vancouver/2016/07/15/number-of-poor-million-dollar-homeowners-high-in-vancouver.html

squeak
Member
squeak

I heard this “news” 20 years ago, from somebody that said that a social worker on the north shore had stated that a lot of people living in British Properties in West Vancouver reported to be poor and received assistance from the Government for themselves and their children.

I really don’t know what to say..

Ooh (dear) Canada …

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Nothing will be done.

only the corrupt get ahead.

learn something.

Earn $$ in another country. Take use of social programs here. get ahead. make local politicians rich while at it.

suckers are local workers.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Western migrants? Not permitted.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Lets be realistic now.

No major city in the world has had a 50% fall in housing prices.

Prices in Vancouver will never get below $1 Million.

The locals allowed their own politicians to get away with this. dumb as can be.

dyugle
Guest
dyugle

Tokyo greater than 70%
https://www.google.ca/search?q=tokyo+housing+crash&gws_rd=cr,ssl&ei=tTSKV-SRMMHcjAPp3KOQAw
Closer to home Las Vegas was greater than 50% Pheonix about 50% and Maimi a bit below but pretty close.
http://ca.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-az-phoenix-home-price-index

Andy
Guest
Andy

No major city has ever had price corrections of 50%. Okay, define “major city”. Vancouver is absolutely beautiful and a major tourist attraction, but it isn’t a “major city”. Second, cities larger than ours absolutely did lose 50% of their home values. Take a look at Miami – and speculatory nature as here, down 50% with loads of condos losing more than that.
Having said that, I too am extremely sceptical that will happen here.

patriotz
Member
KAC
Guest
KAC

Sorry, you are wrong. Some Vancouver home prices plunged by around 90% back in the early part of the 1900s. Our local home prices took another big hit in 1982 when some homes dropped in value by between 40% and 50%.

And let’s not forget Tokyo, where home prices dropped by 90% in the 1980s and still haven’t recovered.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Dublin?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

So to reiterate, no major city in the world has had a 50% fall in housing prices except for the shitload of major cities that did.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Based on the bust a few years back, I’m pretty sure you can add Detroit, Las Vegas, and Tampa (and if we’re calling Vancouver a “major city”, those qualify).

On top of that, in the same correction event, actual major cities like LA, San Francisco, and San Diego all saw something like 40% declines.

Ulsterman
Member

I’ll throw in my home city of Belfast – declines of 40-70% were common.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

How about Barcelona or other cities in Catalonia, Spain around 2008? Their prices would have gone down pretty far (but I’m having trouble finding exact information).

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

50% Great, so that shitty teardown in E.Van will be 800k again.
Huzzah!

patriotz
Member

CRA plans ‘lifestyle audits’ in Vancouver as part of real estate probe

An investigation by Canada Revenue Agency into Metro Vancouver’s soaring real estate market is expected to bring under scrutiny people whose lavish lifestyles and expensive homes don’t appear to be in line with their incomes.

The CRA’s plan, described in a briefing document leaked to The Globe and Mail, indicates that one key area of investigation will be “lifestyle audits.”

MarKoz
Member

“The CRA does come after individuals when it sees they live in very expensive housing and their incomes don’t support their lifestyle,” he said. “But a lot of the time when an individual has money that they’ve legitimately earned elsewhere, they can provide a simple explanation.”

Which is why this investigation will make very little difference. Making money isn’t illegal. Getting a gift from your Dad isn’t illegal. Buying your citizenship under an IIP is’t illegal.

I’m sure this will catch one or two criminals but the combination of low interest rates and the psychological and actual impact of foreign money will continue to drive the market unabated.

Eventually there will be some sort of correction but, as Ulsterman points out, it just doesn’t matter anymore.

burntout
Guest
burntout
It makes a difference if they enforce it properly. Assume some Mainland Chinese millionaire, comes here and gets Landed Status, drops off the wife and kids and returns to make big money. All the while declaring no income and getting Child Benefits and carbon tax back etc. while buying an X million dollar house and Merc etc. As a resident of Canada he HAS to pay tax on worldwide income. So the CRA should ask how did you pay for this? Likely many will lie and say daddy paid for it or an inheritance in China. The CRA could ask for proof and if none is forthcoming assess a fine. But I am sure documents are easy to forge and considering they did nothing with the Panama company owners both locals and Chinese , I assume the same lax standards… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Is he a resident? Or just his wife and kid?

patriotz
Member

“But a lot of the time when an individual has money that they’ve legitimately earned elsewhere, they can provide a simple explanation.”

Not sure what this is getting at. CRA isn’t concerned about whether you’ve earned money “legitimately”, they’re concerned about whether you’ve earned money, period. All income earned worldwide by Canadian residents (that means tax resident, not just someone who happens to be in Canada at the time), is taxable in Canada.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

That would be hilarious is the massive CRA crackdown crashes the real estate market. Of all the possible causes, this was not one I had considered. I’m sure once the wealthy elite start getting liens on their properties for unpaid taxes they may not want to stick around anymore.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Al Capone was taken down by the IRS for unpaid taxes.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

CRA should threaten to share their audit findings with China’s government.

That should get the attention of the crooks.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
YVR
Guest
YVR

I think the new CRA attention may be a game changer. It could bring a rush to the exits to get the money out of Canada. Even if you do everything legitimate nobody wants the CRA auditing them when you have an asset stuck in Canada. I know if I was looking to buy an investment property in the US I would avoid it if it meant the IRS would audit me.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Vancouver, Toronto Home Prices Being Hiked By Foreign Money, BMO Says
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/07/15/vancouver-toronto-home-prices-foreign-money_n_11004592.html
Take that liar Krusty and DeJoung

Loon
Guest
Loon

Hilarious:

The year is 2040 and Vancouver’s houses are worth $80-million

The good news is the city has never been more multicultural, with money launderers from all parts of the globe living here for at least one week of the calendar year in order to avoid paying the city’s empty-home tax. The rotating cast of sheiks and warlords gives the city a special flair.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/the-year-is-2040-and-vancouvers-houses-are-worth-80-million/article30944616/

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

More Chinese Bullying….
“Hong Kong demands that candidates take pro-China pledge, threatens prison if they won’t”
“Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday that his country should stop interfering and hyping up the South China Sea issue”
“China threatens reprisals on NZ dairy, wool and kiwifruit if government doesn’t back off cheap steel inquiry”
and Krusty likes to kiss the ass of cruel and oppressive government

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Breaking News: Krusty is on the take:
Christy Clark & Stockwell Day tied to company profiting from out of control Vancouver housing market
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-company-benefits-from-quebec-cash-for-visa-program

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Krusty aiding and abetting the destruction of Vancouver to line her own pockets. She is a true psychopath.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Just check Rob Chapman for yesterdays sale: 100 units. Definitely slowing down. Think this this the beginning of a crash!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Rib Chopman always comes through with the stats.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Which fuking stats?

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Which fuking stats?

Brian Ripley
Guest

For what it is worth, on my yield curve chart the 10 less 2 year Canadian bond spread continues to narrow heading towards inversion:

http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

The inversion in the summer of 2007 presaged the 2008 correction and banking turmoil. Now we have even deeper and more embedded global markets as well as war and the threats of war especially at currency levels while asset bubbles continue to grow in the risk on jurisdictions.

Overheard in a financial planner’s office here in Vancouver recently: “My husband and I changed our mind about buying another investment property”. (quote from a licensed financial planner)

At some point not even historic low rates will move the market.

paulb
Member

Better late then never

New
188
Sold
106
TI:8787

Newcomer
Member

Thank you, Paul. Your postings are much appreciated!

paulb
Member

very welcome.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“As Rates Sink, Housing Bubbles Rise”, Wall Street Journal
http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-rates-sink-housing-bubbles-rise-1468661400

“Low interest rates around the world are fueling a familiar threat of housing bubbles, and central bankers in a number of key economies feel powerless to stop them.”

“The problem is being acutely felt in Canada, where home prices are soaring even as the country’s energy- and mining-dependent economy slows. In Canada’s hottest market, Vancouver, British Columbia, the benchmark home price rose by a stunning 32% over the 12 months ended in June,”

“Mr. Poloz, whose bank has cut interest rates twice since January 2015, also acknowledged that Canada’s current ultralow rate environment is “absolutely” helping to fuel rising house prices and household debt.”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Poloz should be fired immediately. GT is saying it looks like another rate cut is on the table for later this year. My thinking is we will see zero percent within the next 12 months here in Canada. After that, the financial universe bends in on itself with full negative rates. And after that, the world’s bond markets crash and then we are finished. I give it two more years, tops. What happens after that is over the event horizon so who knows… maybe a world financial restructuring and a one world currency.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Poloz should be fired immediately.”

You spelled executed wrong. Why do you people keep doing that?

nvs
Guest
nvs

Trudeau should replace him and put his own person in there.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Turkey is falling to hard-line Islam. Europe is done for. Turkey was supposed to be the barrier. What a joke.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Fewer jobs but higher prices. Can it get any weirder?

“On the rise in Hamilton: housing prices & unemployment” CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/on-the-rise-in-hamilton-housing-prices-unemployment-1.3679399

“Unemployment is up in Hamilton since a year ago. Meanwhile, the rise of housing prices outstrips Toronto”

Newcomer
Member

I’m guessing that job insecurity is driving people to buy houses. It’s a hedge (albeit a stupid one). People say, all my friends are losing their jobs and I might too, so I’ll buy a house now, while I can and, if I lose my job, I’ll be able to live off the equity gains.

patriotz
Member

The explanation is a lot simpler than that, Hamilton has been absorbed into the GTA market (many people now call it GTHA) and those buying today tend to be working in Toronto or Mississauga (and outpriced there) rather than working (or not working) in Hamilton.

Piklishi
Guest
Piklishi

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/11015752

As house prices rise at what the Bank of Canada calls a “fire-breathing” pace, Canadians are growing increasingly worried about home affordability, particularly in the Toronto and Vancouver areas.

But here’s a sobering thought, courtesy a new report from National Bank Financial: Affordability could be worse. Way, way worse.
In Beijing and Hong Kong, a 970-square-foot condo will run you 34.7 times the city’s average income. Compare that to Canada’s least affordable city, Vancouver, where that same condo will cost you 11.3 times average income.

Canadian affordability levels are similar to levels seen in Australia, which has a similar resource-based economy to Canada’s.

patriotz
Member

Price/income comparisons are invalid because this kind of property is high end over there. In Beijing most people live in Communist era housing or smaller condos. In HK most people live in government-owned rentals or smaller condos.

However if you look at price versus rent, which is the valid metric, there’s no question these properties are overpriced.

Newcomer
Member

It’s foolish to compare these cities on any measure. The author probably hasn’t been to any of them and is just copy and pasting from a press release from the realestate board.

space889
Member
space889

when’s the last time you are in BJ or China, or talked to someone who recently live there? Most people live in Communist Era housing?? China is not a Communist hellhole anyore? BPOM would be interested to know.

And yes, condos are smaller and more expensive, so kind of prove author’s point that it is still cheaper here.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Shut the fuck up, locust.

We’re inching closer to war at which point we start rounding you and your kind up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-17/us-warships-surround-disputed-chinese-waters-prepared-war-wwiii-stake

Have you been to any camps before?

space889
Member
space889

And you will be volunteering for the US Army first thing on Monday???

You are even more pathetic than a bully. At least the bully can pretend to be tough. You are a loser who keep telling people just you wait, my big bro is going to beat you up!!!

I\'m with Stupid ^
Guest
I\'m with Stupid ^

I agree.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Space, do you even live in Vancouver?. You never say a thing that makes it sound like you know what it’s like to live here as opposed to some other arbitrary city.

Space, where did you last see an eagle in Vancouver? What’s the condition of the tree that many people in Vancouver from generations back has memories of? Space, at precisely which spot do you rest when you climb the stairs at either Wreck Beach or Grouse Mountain? Space, name an orca who swims in the Salish sea. Space, how many kinds of salmon are there in these Pacific waters? Space, what’s the best place to swim in the ocean on the lower mainland?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Gosh I wish we had an edit button.
“have” not “has”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Welcome to the upside-down global economy where savers are penalized and borrowers get paid” Financial Post

“Welcome to the upside-down world of modern monetary policy. In this new reality, borrowers get paid and savers penalized. Almost 500 million people in a quarter of the global economy now live in countries where interest rates measure less than zero.’

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
patriotz
Member

Only governments are borrowing at negative rates, not private parties. Indeed as the article points out the -ve rates reduce banks’ revenues which mean they are more likely to increase rates charged to private parties.

space889
Member
space889

Uhm…European corporate going to have negative borrowing rate courtesy of ECB. There are already borrowers in Denmark and Nordic countries with negative rate mortgages. So what the f are you talking about that only gov’t are borrowing at negative rates?

patriotz
Member

The mortgage rates are not negative. What they have is something called “interest”, which is negative, and something called “fees”, which add up to a positive rate. The principal repayment is in addition to this. Interest by definition is what a borrower pays in addition to the principal. If it talks like a duck, etc.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

From Sam Cooper Tweet: The U.S. Gov views corruption and money laundering from Russia and China as a national security issue. Does Canada and BC? Apparently not.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Does tolerating graft undermine national security?
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/01/19/corruption-revolt

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

BC NDP add your name to their cause.
Red-hot housing prices are forcing people to move out of BC.
https://act.bcndp.ca/housing?source=topbutton

I went to the Burnaby Edmonds street fair today and the City of Burnaby had a booth there to support/explain/promote their new high density plan for the Metrotown area. I gave them supreme shit for their greed and displacement of 100’s of low income residents to accommodate greedy developers and real estate speculators.
We the people need to start fighting back against this mass corruption and greed at all levels of government. Government should be by the people and for the people, not for special interest business groups.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Good for you. The destruction of Vancouver and surrounding area doesn’t happen all at once, it happens bit by bit by bit. It is good to talk one-on-one with people, in specific contexts about specific projects or events with which they are somehow connected. People often don’t recognize the connections between local projects and big trends.

space889
Member
space889

because keept those 40/50 years old apartment buildings on their way to slums is much better for the tenants in the long term? And off course, stopping densification and lowering housing supply will totally resolve the high housing prices?

Gotta love bear logic

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

These buildings are not “on their way to (being) slums” but are well maintained apartment buildings that provide accommodations at a reasonable cost to people to could not otherwise afford to live in the area. Why should they be torn down and the residents displaced for the sake of property developer profit and off-shore real estate speculators? These residents are Canadian citizens who deserve to be treated fairly by their respective governments and not booted to the curb for the sake of a few dollars of which they will see none.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
I’ve seen one too many renovictions not to be disturbed by this story. I have seen a guy adjusting to a divorce and a serious accident and subsequent job loss getting his life back on track and living simply in his apartment. It was a good base of operations for him, clean and well ordered. He could do most of his work online. He had a bicycle to get around and cooked good meals for himself and attended workshops, including government sponsored ones, to update his credentials and ‘improve’ himself. Some group of investors who wanted to get better profits from the building decided to upgrade it and eject all the tenants living there. It was a huge problem for him, he had to quickly find a place to live that he could afford, he had to sell many of… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

*”double pane” not “pain”. Sorry.

space889
Member
space889

OH please…when you are charging low rents and working with 40yr+ assets, there is limited good maintenance you can do. That’s real life.

And Metrotown is Burnaby’s downtown. Are you saying that low income people have more rights to low income housing there than middle class and upper middle class families? Metrotwn isn’t exactly plagued by empty condos. If thecity is really concerned, nothing prevents the city from demanding low income housing from developers or build its own from development charges. Foreign investments would mean that the city wouldn’t have to spend tax payer money on it.

The Man
Guest
The Man

It makes no economic sense to spend billions of tax dollars to build rapid transit lines that only service low 3-storey walk up apartment densities. Which is why areas around rapid transit stations have been designated for densification for decades.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Densification in certain areas is fine when it is weighed against other factors, but random densification is not fine, nor is densification at the beck and call of a politically-connected developer or offshore realtor. It has to be thought out — otherwise there is no defence for it.

space889
Member
space889

Metrotown is being densified, and there are master plan for it. What’s so random about it? If you don’t like and think you can do a better job, you are welcome to show up at those public meetings and voice your opinions or better yet, run for mayor.

The Man
Guest
The Man

Cities have to have Official Community Plans, and they are to be updated every 5 years, with public input. OCPs outline the land uses in a city including areas slated for densification, guiding where development is to occur. Metrotown has been slated for densification since the first Metrotown Development Plan of 1977.

https://www.burnaby.ca/Assets/city+services/policies+projects+and+initiatives/community+development/Metrotown+Plan+1977+Adopted+Original.pdf

Bear Vancouverite
Guest
Bear Vancouverite
I’m a bear, I have nothing against you and I actually find some of your posts make good sense, but you really need to become more educated on the topic of densification, city planning, development, and finance in order to participate and even properly act as an activist on Vancouver real estate. The strongest arguments are the ones from informed individuals with a good grasp of the various aspects affecting the entire market. This post is REALLY disturbingly uninformed and posts like this or activism with uninformed posts like this can only strengthen the position of those who want to nitpick more valid arguments in order to keep real estate grossly inflated. Densification of Vancouver and surrounding municipalities are not done randomly. There’s a lot of planing that goes into it and such planning is periodically made public and open… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Speaking of slums or better say nasty shitholes… The first thing that had to be bulldozed or exterminated should have been Crystal Mall in Burnaby. It is shame that such monstrosity even exist in any part of the western world.

space889
Member
space889

Well you are at it, you can get rid of this imitator too:
http://www.greenroofs.com/projects/librarysq/librarysq01.jpg

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Hah! Apparently Space has got an Imitator Complex. Should go in the new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.

I\'m with Stupid ^
Guest
I\'m with Stupid ^

If we remove this, where else would the homeless sleep/urinate??

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

“Be prepared: China’s bubble will soon burst”
“Here in Vancouver, we’re seeing it right before our eyes: an out-of-control property market the government has only recently decided to acknowledge is almost completely inflated by an outflow of Chinese money. Mainlanders have taken cash out of the country at unprecedented rates, as high as $46 billion a month in the past half-year alone.”
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/be-prepared-chinas-bubble-will-soon-burst-387132191.html

Newcomer
Member

Well, if there is anyone I trust for my international finance news, it’s the Winnipeg Free Press. Talk about having a finger on the pulse!

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

U.S. Warships Surround Disputed Chinese Waters, Prepared For War: “WWIII At Stake”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-17/us-warships-surround-disputed-chinese-waters-prepared-war-wwiii-stake

Newcomer
Member

This is another super-reliable source.

wpDiscuz