Friday Free-for-all! July 15th 2016

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another friday free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Only Toronto and Vancouver?
Rates stay steady
CRA crackdown on RE
Pauls stats

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Average Canadian house price of $503,301 in June up 11.2% from year ago”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-housing-june-1.3680458

“Aggregate price is appreciating at the fastest pace since 2006, realtor group says”

“Toronto and Vancouver are certainly driving the gains, but the numbers are strong everywhere”

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I thought Garth said they were down everywhere?

Ulsterman
Member
Honestly all this examination of the real estate market just feels like so much navel gazing now. Maybe 5 years ago there was still a chance that a correction of 20-30% would actually make a difference to regular people. Now with the, what, 40% increase in the past year, or 80-100% increase in the past 5 years, any correction still leaves houses out of reach for most people. Will it really make any significant difference if that Port Moody house goes from $1.2m to $700k? That was the price most bears were already calling bubbly and refusing to buy at. I still come back, but to be honest i’m defeated by it all. Coquitlam homes start at $1m. I used to say to my wife that if it never corrects then fuck it, we’ll just suck it up and spend… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Overall, housing here is set by the Chinese Politbureau. Whatever they decide to do dictates the market. There is policy and action taken by the people in a panic against policy. IMHO that’s what we’ve just seen: money panicking to get out before the government does something or another. Us honkies will never know.

Then there’s amplification of the market. That is set by Canadian policy like interest rates and debt loads. It’s us who are most at risk; be you owner or renter.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

I also used to be 100% convinced that we were in a bubble that was going to explode spectacularly. I don’t think so any more. Like most people on this site, you seem to want a detached house. But if you look at all the factors contributing to the insane prices, NONE of them are likely to change:

-Interest rates are going to stay near zero for a long time.
-Population growth will continue unabated
-No meaningful number of new houses will be built, mainly due to the ALR
-The QIIP is going nowhere
-Nothing meaningful will happen to reduce HAM
-CMHC guarantees will not go away
-Capital gains exemption on primary residence will remain

The good news is that apartments will remain more-or-less affordable, as supply has kept up with demand. But houses will never again be remotely affordable for an average income earner. Ever.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

+1

Newcomer
Member

You would have to see a lot of population growth for that to be the case. Long term, you would have to have all of those existing houses either knocked down and replaced by multi-unit buildings or you would have to have them all occupied by the 1%, while the 99% lived in nearby apartments. In either case, the population needed to support such scenarios would be many times that of Vancouver’s current population. At current growth rates, we are talking about something on the order of a hundred years. It’s not impossible that current conditions will prevail for the next hundred years, with 1%ers snapping up each SFH each time an owner dies, but it’s unlikely.

Ever is a long way out.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

“Ever” is here, today, now.

25 years ago we had 600,000 detached houses in the Lower Mainland. Today we have exactly the same number, but half a million more residents. We will continue add about 30,000 new residents each year, every year, but zero net new houses.

Please explain how detached prices will ever come back to affordable levels for an average earner in such a situation.

MarKoz
Member

Ulsterman, you and I feel the same way. I used to say to my wife, fuck it, if the correction never comes and we get kicked out of our rental we’ll just buy in Surrey (which would make my commute bad and hers horrendous). Now?

We pay $2100/month for a single family home in the Main corridor (rent has barely gone up in 10 years) and I don’t even want to think about what would happen if the landlord decides to sell.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
We live in Fraserview, our rent is $2000 for 4 bed bung, great yard (even have a landlord provided gardener!), rent hasn’t increased in the 3 years we’ve lived there (knock on wood). We’re pretty happy where we are but WHAT IF is always the question. Guess we’ll just keep renting until retirement (15 years at earliest), and then probably move away. Have been looking at places in the kootenays, amazing you can buy a decent SFH for $200k in many places. Places where people actually live, work, raise families, don’t have to rely on basement suites or laneway homes to make the mortgage. And no traffic! So that’s the plan, as for buying in YVR, the time has passed for us, I think, and don’t foresee retiring in YVR with the boondoggle it will be and has become. Why… Read more »
popgoesthebubble
Member

Same as both of you. My wife is furious as she wanted to buy 4 years ago. We rent in Kerrisdale 4 Bdrm for $3200. If we buy now probably have to move to victoria.

Ulsterman
Member
Pricedoutfornow, I’m like you, i COULD get out at 55, 11 years from now, but 16 years is probably more realistic. I’m getting into that weird timeline where i realize that even if i did buy now, i’d have to buy somewhere affordable with a big downpayment to get mortgage free by retirement. I’m running out of working years! If i bought in the kootenays or Penticton i could do it no problem, but i have to figure out how to earn a living there. I just don’t know if i want to raise my kids in the lower mainland only to dash off and buy a place as soon as i retire in the Okanagan or the Kootenays, miles from where they’ll live or be going to school. But my wife thinks we’re doing our kids a disservice even… Read more »
squeak
Member
squeak
I think you (and some other bloggers) have tuned in and got your gutfeeling sorted out and come to the conclusion there is no future in Vancouver or vicinity. Those who are to retire, I think most of their plans are to get out of Vancouver, unless they make the mistake of giving all their house winnings to their kids so they can afford (barely) to live in Vancouver/vicinity, but how are their kids going to fare in all Asian schools and in a corrupt province? Vancouver/Vicinities are Asian. The landscape have changed so tremendously that Canadians feel eliminated from the equation. Corruption and disinterest on the Governments behalf. I would rather invest in an automatic garagedoor opener, heated drive way, snowplow and a high-tech fashionable parka and a lifestyle (snowbird?, holidays, no finance stress) than a killer mortgage ala… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member
Markoz, shocking similarities. After 5 years i’ll be out of my SFH rental in July 2017. Started at $1800 and the owner just raised the rent to $2100 for my final year. It’s in N Burnaby, duplex lot, and “worth” $2.5m. Your fear is my reality. My ever-trusting wife is now in a frenzy, wondering what the fuck we’re going to do. I used to say exactly what you said. We’ll buy in Surrey. Now I’m actually considering BUYING in Squamish because at least i’ll have my beloved mountain biking, and Whistler only 30 mins from my door. But of course, i’m thinking, “Seriously, i can’t buy NOW at the fucking height of this mania!” But my wife is besides herself at the thought of moving. I’m also thinking i don’t even care if i buy and it goes down,… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

problem is you guys got schooled to be wusses. No other nationality in any country would allow what you white people allowed in your own backyard!

Ulsterman
Member

I agree! The kids in the schools actually refer to whites as stupid round eye. They can’t beleive the place has been sold away/given away so easily.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Have you not been watching France in the news this year? All the men hiding in shops and cowering behind the counter with the women.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Western civilization is on a suicide mission. You should congratulate us as we are doing so well.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
It’s depressing, yes. I feel exploited, actually. And like it has gone on for too long and everything is already destroyed. On the other hand, the BATTLE IS EPIC, absolutely epic, gonna be epic. Already exposure of major wrongdoing and a response of digging in the heels and denial. The giant forces arrayed against those of us wanting Vancouver neighborhoods to be healthy and fore there to be housing for the middle class who live here and are committed to this place, are huge and powerful. As this article linked below shows. http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-company-benefits-from-quebec-cash-for-visa-program Of course there had to be a conduit for those offshore investors coming in through the Quebec program — since so so many came and are continuing to arrive, there would have had to have been an outfit in BC helping them. Its a company offering a… Read more »
DaMann
Member
DaMann

Another thing that pisses me off is our Canadian banks openly flouting Chinese banking laws. I read an article where a CIBC bank manager was helping organize smurfs ( tens or hundreds of people to each move out the $50 k limit) so their client can get the money out of China. Can you imagine the uproar if China was flouting our Canadian banking laws like that? Yet again all levels of Government turn a blind eye. Where the hell are our journalists? Why are they not digging this stuff up and getting it more out there?

The rot has set in so deep and for so long it’s as if no one cares about corruption anymore. It’s as if it’s accepted in Vancouver / Canada. It’s really unbelievable how far Vancouver/BC/Canada has sunk.

The Man
Guest
The Man

Since when do Canadian citizens or firms have to abide by a foreign countries laws?

What are you going on about? It’s not our job to uphold any foreign countries laws, unless we have a specific treaty to do so, and I certainly wouldn’t want my government signing such treaties with any authoritarian regimes.

BTW, neither Chinese banks nor the Chinese government is going to uphold any of our laws either. Remember this guy?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/amanda-zhao-s-killer-gets-reduced-sentence-in-china-1.2692110

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Its open corruption.

Only thing to stop our crooked politicians is to fight back. Enough is enough.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yes, “open corruption” is a good word for it. They think they’re covered but they got no clothes.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

You serious? How do you think our mining industry works? Vancouver mining companies routinely rape other countries.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I remember there being a big (regional) protest in a south american country against a canadian mining company. I don’t know whether it was about human rights issues, or environmental issues. I wouldn’t mind if the newspapers informed us of ways Canadian-owned companies abroad were being perceived and what their behaviours were. Sometimes the political leadership of a country can be entirely in favor of a foreign-owned company exploiting the resources of a country while people out of power, maybe working people, will be against it. So though I agree with The Man’s reply below to your comment, there is also the kind of circumstance I just described.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Sick and tire of the bullshit that’s is happening in Vancouver with the Mainland Chinese immigrants. They have turned this beautiful, once livable city into a three ring circus. Money laundering through our RE and the three levels of government have not done a thing about it. 10’s of thousands of corrupt officials, money launders, criminals from China now living in Vancouver. Just a message to Justin, stop all immigration from China.

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Yah!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Not all the money is criminal or laundered. People don’t get that. If you own a factory there and Canada let’s you immigrate here you’ve committed no crime. However, if you move your money here in little brown bags on multiple flights, then you’re contravening Chinese and Canadian law and IF you get caught you probably will have to pay some taxes and penalties.

So who are the clowns and who set up this circus?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Not just stop it, but reverse it.

Send the shit back.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Today I was just explaining to someone who works in sales/service at one of the businesses on Granville what a loonie is. I had asked for some change in loonies, if she had it, and she didn’t know what I was asking for though at first she said “yes of course” thinking that I was asking whether I could pay in change, perhaps. I asked several times whether she had enough loonies and finally saw that she did not know the word “loonie”. I explained that it was the name for a Canadian one dollar coin, and that it was a slang expression. I repeated myself a couple times. And then I asked “did you ever hear that before?” and she said “No”. And then I said “you know where it is from? Guess.” and she recognized the word “from”… Read more »
I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

I am sure that made you feel all righteous and big.
Good for you, you get a cookie!

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

@I\’m with Stupid V

You don’t care that people don’t know really basic simple cultural facts about Canada? Not even ones pertaining to their line of business? Srsly?

Or are you saying you’re not impressed by people talking to each other about anything other than the bare minimum of what it takes for an economic transaction.

Or… I get it…without knowing me, you think you know how I feel. Wonder what that projection would be based upon

ostritch
Member
ostritch

No birds left in China but lots of dirty old men who try to pick up young chicks. Hahahahha.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

There are shitload of such retards in the city. A madhouse full of useless waste.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I forgot to add: this woman was nice enough. I liked her. But I wonder a lot about what it going on with the ownership of the business, which seems to change hands a lot and never to hire anyone who knows English for some reason.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

It is likely a money laundering front.

franko
Member
franko

Start with plugging the Quebec loophole!

patriotz
Member

BC can take care of the problem itself by charging a penalty tax on buyers of expensive houses who don’t pay appropriate income tax. As I said, if BC is not willing to take action on this, why should the Feds or Quebec?

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

The knock on effect.

Vancouver is screwed for sure. The price of housing has increased beyond what wages can pay. The disconnect makes it harder to grow businesses here so it is hard to see how wages will catch up.

OTOH, huge numbers of average folks who sold their homes to foreigners are now millionaires for retirement. The question is – where will they take the money? Many nice places in BC with good health care and good weather where $1 million lets you live like a king (Kelowna, Comox Valley, etc.)

david
Guest
david

The ‘windfall’ is in paltry C$, and leaving Canada is complex and financially punitive. Given that, where do you go? Few Vancouverites have any ability or desire to live through a real Canadian winter in any of the total of 6 other ‘major’ (urrppp…) cities .

The only halfway liveable urban location in Canada has been sold off to the highest criminal bidder, and spinning the ‘silver lining’ of this short-sighted frenzy as a ‘great life opportunity’ for those who cashed out is pathetic.

patriotz
Member

” where $1 million lets you live like a king (Kelowna, Comox Valley, etc.)”

It’s been a long time since you could “live like a king” on just a mil anywhere in Canada, never mind the country’s most expensive communities for their size.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I would leave BC altoghether if I had cashed out such a lottery ticket.

If I’m going to live in a banana republic under a thoroughly corrupt goverment, I’d rather be somewhere warm with good beaches and smiling people.

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Big talk. You should probably just leave then.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

I did

I\'m with Stupid V
Guest
I\'m with Stupid V

Great! Here is a cookie.

ComoxValley
Guest
ComoxValley

Everyone says that. Few people do. Why? Grandkids. Friends. Existing doctors, etc. Access to Canadian hospitals.

david
Guest
david

The truly honest answer is that your government makes it too financially punitive for anyone to go to the US, where the standard of living of the average person makes Canada look like Romania.

The rest is classic Canadian denial and BS.

patriotz
Member

The fact is that there are over 1 million Canadian citizens living in the US, far more than in any other country. Also what’s your definition of “average person”?

david
Guest
david

‘In 2012, approximately 801,000 Canadian immigrants resided in the United States, comprising about 2 percent of the total U.S. foreign-born population”.
–Migration Policy Institute

You’re an idiot and a liar.