BC, data, economy, predictions, prices, supply

Is the end of the bubble near?

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195 Comments

The latest spurt of ‘bubble is bursting‘ news is showing up in the local media.

Despite ever increasing sales prices, we’re also seeing a dropping sales to listing ratio month after month.

UBC’s Tom Davidoff, an associate professor at the Sauder School of Business and a real estate analyst, says the first signs of a bubble bursting might be sales volume slowing down and inventory rising. A rising rental vacancy rate could also be indicative of the market slowing down as well as lenders becoming more cautious about issuing and underwriting mortgages.

In the last few months, all of these red flags have been appearing in the Vancouver market, aside from a growing rental vacancy rate.

At the end of May, the CEO of Scotiabank, Brian Porter, said they were “a little concerned” with housing prices in Vancouver and had been easing off their mortgage lending business because of too much risk.

Read the full article over at Global News.

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[…] –Only Toronto and Vancouver? –Rates stay steady –CRA crackdown on RE –Pauls stats – […]

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HAMster

Villa de Michelle on Imperial Street is one of 19 buildings in the area owned by Amacon and slated for condo re-development. The occupied building is slated for demolition.

The group estimates the move will displace a total of 500 people, and that’s why Dave Diewert says they aren’t leaving.

http://www.news1130.com/2016/07/14/housing-advocates-burnaby-leave/

It was reported in the Burnaby Now local paper that one 3 story walk-up apartment building in the Metrotown area sold for $40 MILLION.
Good Grief, what is happening in this city? This is madness!

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

+100

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Hyper-mega-Bull

wrestlers can speak mandarin, why cant you?

https://twitter.com/VinceMcMahon/status/743570291826139137

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Newcomer

我们可以。

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Does the second symbol mean ‘speaking’?

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Newcomer

The first and second symbol together mean “we.” The first symbol means “I” and the second symbol makes it plural. The next two symbols mean “can.” (We can.)

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Oh cool. I was guessing the first symbol meant “many” or “we” and that the third and four something like possibility and action, or possibility and spreading it among many. So I was totally off base with the first two symbols. I guess the first one sort of looks like a person with very long hair walking hastily, so maybe I’ll remember it is a first person subject.

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franko

How about ‘cheating’?

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Newcomer

Nothing new in this, but the property managers being interviewed are lying POS. They are totally encouraging it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-rental-market-bidding-war-1.3680027

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HAMster

Cockroaches importing snakes:

http://www.250news.com/canadian-press/?loc=1&id=8f5d679e-0edc-40fd-a6dd-70ddb82d2cf6

RICHMOND, B.C. — A slithering surprise was discovered in a package mailed from China at a Canada Post distribution centre in British Columbia last week.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I’m glad that the person who opened up the package did not get bit. How could anyone even consider doing such a thing and endangering people in that way?

I have a theory that answers my own question but I’ll save it for later.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

The theory has to do with the effects of living in authoritarian states.

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paulb

New
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TI:8782

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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patriotz

Nationality information doesn’t help British Columbia’s housing debate

The B.C. Housing Affordability Fund (BCHAF) proposal, adapted into a private member’s bill pending action, asks for increased property taxes from homeowners who are not local taxpayers, haven’t lived in their homes a long time and don’t rent them out.

Great minds think alike. 🙂

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Idiot and DUMAS Garth Turner who is wrong about RE for the last 8 years say ” Get Out Of Vancouver Real Estate Now”

My advice on real estate in Vancouver bears repeating. Get out.If you’ve made a windfall profit, take it and run. If you’re leveraged up to the pits and speculating on big gains, bail. If you’re within a few years of retirement with most of your net worth in four walls, suck it out. If you cannot afford to see your equity peeled back by a third or more, and stay that way for years, then retreat. If you listened to Mom and bought a condo with diddly down, get out. If you’re a Westside gazillionaire, and want to stay that way, sell. If you just bought a shack for $2.8 million, well, too late.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/garth-turner/get-out-vancouver-real-estate_b_10993510.html

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Oracle

Another terrorist attack in France.

And now for a taste of the future. Go any day of the week around 7 pm to the Tim Hortons on 152 and 102 ave in Surrey. Wear a shirt that says ‘stop terrorists ‘ and you will beheaded. A group of 50 newly arrived Middle East refugees congregate there every night. Zero assimilation.

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Whistler or Bust?

I fear for my children.

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Newcomer

Wus.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I will go some time in the next week for a donut and report back to you. I will not wear a veil nor refrain from looking anyone straight in the eye. I will be unattended by any man and will sit down to work for awhile with paper, pen and maybe a computer and some books. I may wear a shirt I’m sort of afraid to wear in Richmond — one that says Free Tibet.

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realist

LOL! Thank you for my laugh of the day. I look forward to your report.

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Best place on meth

Wear a shirt that says “Free Vancouver”.

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Best place on meth

The EU is dead.

Merkel invited a million undocumented muslim refugees and wrecked the continent.

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0000000000

No assimilation? Congregating at Tim Hortons is as Canadian as you can get

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Nom Nom Nom

Haha! Touche 0000000000!

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Newcomer

A third friend is putting his house on the market with plans to rent. This one is a 60-year-old financial advisor, who I guess has seen a thing or two. Paul’s numbers, however, show us what a very unpopular option this is.

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wizard sleeves

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/two-real-estate-agents-suspended-from-vancouvers-hot-housing-market-over-misconduct?__lsa=b1ef-53a5

90 day detention and $1500 fine on $60k commission.

*Point finger* Bad girl, bad girl.

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Combat roach

It sounds like an incentive, not a penalty. Those fucking locusts will just continue to do their shit and play dumb. Same facial expression when they drive a car and keep doing their shit and screwing others.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Like continuing to use cellphone while driving, after repeatedly being told it is unsafe and illegal and getting a ticket. Repeatedly, 10 or 20 times. How many tickets did that woman get before she was finally banned from driving? And how long was the ban for anyway?

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Best place on meth

I can’t believe chinese realtors are cheating and scamming.

It’s just not like them.

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Combat roach

“If you’ve made a windfall profit, take it and run. If you’re leveraged up to the pits and speculating on big gains, bail. If you’re within a few years of retirement with most of your net worth in four walls, suck it out. If you cannot afford to see your equity peeled back by a third or more, and stay that way for years, then retreat. If you listened to Mom and bought a condo with diddly down, get out. If you’re a Westside gazillionaire, and want to stay that way, sell. If you just bought a shack for $2.8 million, well, too late.”

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/10993510

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BubbleTea

In The Sun today: Feds, after dragging heels, plan crackdown on Vancouver real estate tax cheats
A “bombshell” internal federal government document has triggered a new wave of accusations of government inaction in dealing with Vancouver’s housing affordability crisis.

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Madashell

Going after the world income of these Astronaut Families by the feds may be the pin that pops the Great Vancouver Housing Bubble.

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Best place on meth

Then deporting them all for immigration fraud after reviewing their applications and documentation.

100,000 locusts need to go back.

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realist

Agree with Ms. Sung and other comments above, but I frankly doubt that CRA is truly inclined or capable of the task. Ian Young informs us there was one successful prosecution in BC last year for non-declaration of world income…that’s one away from zero, with a denominator of several zeros. CRA prefers the low-hanging fruit of barmaids who cheat a bit on their tips and other petty and local tax evaders.

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patriotz

Don’t blame the workers for the priorities of the boss. Lego Hair cut CRA’s enforcement staff while directing those remaining to go after charities for “political” activities.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Takes awhile for a big ship to turn around.

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Dave

Everybody deserves blame. The tax code is so complicated that it requires a huge staff at CRA to manage it. And even then, they get stuff wrong all the time. Simplify the tax code and it frees up staff to after cheats. All levels of government are guilty of this.

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realist

patriotz, CanNever, Dave: agree with you. An aging bureaucracy sinking under the weight of its own regulatory complexity, directed by visionless, small minded Con politicians righting petty wrongs, as the country is stolen from under their noses. And those are the better ones: most of the remainder are imbecilic or corrupt.

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BubbleTea

“I put the blame squarely on the government, which has not been doing anything,” she stated. “They’ve allowed this situation to go on.”
Sung argued that Canadian authorities should have acted long ago to restrict the flow of wealth accumulated through corruption from entering Vancouver’s real-estate market. She said it is that failure of Canadian regulators that is ultimately responsible for the role that foreign money has come to play.
http://www.straight.com/news/735161/revisiting-real-estate-race-and-how-foreign-buyers-narrative-came-dominate-vancouver

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southseacompany

“Central Banks Making Housing Unaffordable”, Press For Truth
https://pressfortruth.ca/top-stories/central-banks-making-housing-unaffordable/

“If the central bank wasn’t meddling within the market, then private lenders themselves would be able to naturally establish what the rate should be. The central banks pretending to know what’s best for the central economy hasn’t proved to be working thus far, considering that a growing number of citizens are finding it harder to get by and maintain their standard of living and the currency has been almost fully eroded.”

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southseacompany

“4 Signs the Global Housing Bubble Is Already Bursting — Here’s What to Do”, Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tonysagami/2016/07/14/4-signs-the-global-housing-bubble-is-already-bursting-heres-what-to-do/#cb8700a446a2

“It’s déjà vu. Home prices in major cities are at the same levels (or even higher) than prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis.”

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southseacompany

“Are low interest rates doing more harm than good?”, Maclean’s
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/are-low-interest-rates-doing-more-harm-than-good/

“Eight years of near-zero—and now subzero—interest rates have already forced investors to seek out returns in a wide assortment of alternative assets, creating massive bubbles in housing and smaller ones in artwork, fine wine, bitcoins and even U.S. farmland”

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patriotz

It doesn’t make sense to talk about bubbles in bitcoins because they have no inherent worth, i.e. they are a Ponzi scheme.

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Maximian

Bitcoin does indeed have inherent worth: it’s a censorship-resistant digital bearer asset – the world’s first. The blockchain on which it’s based even has non-monetary uses as a censorship-resistant general asset register.

Aside from that, if you believe that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, then you must believe that gold is also a ponzi scheme. Gold’s “inherent value” for industrial use represents but a tiny fraction of its current value.

Like Bitcoin, gold happens to possess properties that make it a good form of money: it’s durable, divisible, transportable, and difficult to counterfeit (actually Bitcoin is superior in that aspect because it’s practically impossible to counterfeit). That is what gives gold it’s high speculative value, and the same can be said for Bitcoin.

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southseacompany

“Bank of Canada holds rates to tame ‘fire-breathing’ Vancouver housing market”, The Province
http://www.theprovince.com/business/real-estate/bank+canada+holds+rates+tame+27fire+breathing+vancouver/12057010/story.html

“The Bank of Canada has held on to its overnight interest rate in part because it doesn’t want to inadvertently add fuel to the Vancouver housing market. ”

“It’s “right up there in terms of the leading reasons (the BOC is) extremely reluctant” to touch that benchmark, said Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter. “Unless there is a major economic shock, it’s going to sit on the sidelines because there is (already) a lot of buildup in household debt” in Vancouver, but also Toronto.”

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mls watch

Best interview in a long time…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-affordability-racism-1.3676601

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space889

hahahaha….

https://media.makeameme.org/created/oh-because-dunbar.jpg

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Best place on meth

DEATH TO CHINA!!

http://blog.ninapaley.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Locust4.gif

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space889

25 minutes 46 seconds ago

The thing is, in real life I’m one of those people who bends over backwards not to be racist or make anyone feel uncomfortable.

https://totallyawesomename.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/im-not-racist.png

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

All I can conclude is that you’re stupid. Sorry.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Also that’s a slanderous misrepresentation of what I said. You are trying to tap into a common meme to get a sympathetic reaction. I did NOT include a “but” and then go on to say something that belied my opener though you have represented me as doing so with the sentence you added in boldface.

Do you act this way to people in real life or only in the cybersphere?

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

So yesterday Garth was feeling a little butthurt after being called sexist and misogynist for comments he made in a CBC interview.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/07/12/the-dander/

Although I agree that the thin-skinned SJWs of the world are overly hyper-sensitive about, well, everything, I have to say it’s kind of ironic given how quickly Garth calls racism any time someone mentions HAM’s influence on prices. Poetic justice, I’d say.

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Dave

If people call you a racist it probably means you aren’t a passive aggressive crybully.

I’m sick of the self centred SJW crowd that virtue signals to the World. Those of us who are still sane need to call them out on their BS. Nobody actually thinks you’re a racist when somebody calls you it, so who cares.

Garth’s a dummy. Or maybe not. Fear sells and he made coin off it. Props.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yeah, well, an old white boy living in Toronto or where ever he lives probably has no sense whatsoever of what it’s like to be in Vancouver. Granted Toronto is ethnically diverse too, but in different ways from us., with a different history of colonization and later settlers and immigrants. Anyone living in Vancouver (actually having their lives here I mean, and interacting regularly at work or school or in the marketplace with other citizens) will have no trouble easily distinguishing between Mainlander tourists speaking Mandarin, Mainlander 1%ers speaking I’ve-got-$, other tourists speaking Cantonese, Canadians whose families have been here one generation and originally from China, Canadians whose more distant ancestors were from that part of the world, Canadians with Asian ancestry from the Philippines, from Tibet, Indonesia, Burma and half-dozen other places. Those who like Turner throw around the… Read more »

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Fear monger

Tired of people calling Vancouver multicultural.
What we’ve got is Chinese and East Indians, with some Caucasians putting up a brave face.
Toronto is much more diverse.
They have blacks, Arabs, Russians and Garth Turner.

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space889

Pot please meet kettle here…

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Huh?

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space889

Facepalm…I forgot, you guys didn’t use might to take over Canada, just some biological warfare, and tricking people into signing a bunch of contracts they don’t understand.

And it’s a few hundreds years in the past so who cares right.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Did the real Space return to China and some neophyte juvenile take his place? I don’t remember Space being this clueless.

How is what happened in history relevant to what I said? Honestly, do your masters think what you pulled here is a powerful rhetorical move? That’s too bad.

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Combat roach

It is just another 50-cent party retard logged in the same account. Fuckers are doing shifts and could be accelerating now due to South Sea fiasco.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Or maybe a super slick marketing person who uses social media and sometimes poses as a journalist and is somewhat sadistic and is getting paid mega bucks by some realty/developer association or political group to squelch the burgeoning movement to address the housing crisis in a meaningful way.

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Oracle

Take a look at his Raymond James staff. Lots of people of Asian background on board trying to get at HAM. Its one big business for him. Remember, he is an ex politician. Same blood. Goal oriented thinking 100% of the way. Will deny HAM if it makes his Raymond James franchise $$$$

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paulb

New
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http://www.paulboenisch.com

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YLTNboomerang

Holy cow, talk about locals going all-in real estate:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/not-even-movers-can-catch-a-break-in-calgary-where-fleeing-homeowners-are-selling-everything?__lsa=669c-3278

Buddy lost his job, found a new one that was boring and didn’t pay enough so the family is packing it in selling all their stuff and moving to Equador for a couple years…how are they going to fund it:

“The couple plan to live on revenue from their interests in a half dozen residential condo properties in Edmonton, plus rent from their Calgary house if it doesn’t sell. Both grew up in Alberta and neither speaks Spanish well, but they’re excited.”

The article is about everyone moving out of Alberta, what if one or two of their renters in the 6 apartments and one house decide to cut bait and leave, they could get negative cashflow pretty quick; greedy fools for not cashing out.

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