Is the end of the bubble near?

The latest spurt of ‘bubble is bursting‘ news is showing up in the local media.

Despite ever increasing sales prices, we’re also seeing a dropping sales to listing ratio month after month.

UBC’s Tom Davidoff, an associate professor at the Sauder School of Business and a real estate analyst, says the first signs of a bubble bursting might be sales volume slowing down and inventory rising. A rising rental vacancy rate could also be indicative of the market slowing down as well as lenders becoming more cautious about issuing and underwriting mortgages.

In the last few months, all of these red flags have been appearing in the Vancouver market, aside from a growing rental vacancy rate.

At the end of May, the CEO of Scotiabank, Brian Porter, said they were “a little concerned” with housing prices in Vancouver and had been easing off their mortgage lending business because of too much risk.

Read the full article over at Global News.

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Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Quite a noticeable change in East Van detached, where inventory has been building over the last few weeks (still low) and bids of 10-20% over asking which were the norm in the spring have all but disappeared.

Price changes to the downside are increasing.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Krusty and DeJoung were giving us the limited stats right after the horses has left the barn.

different this time
Guest
different this time

The most corrupt Government BC has had for many years.

If you want to know why they do something, just see who gave them money or what benefits them personally and Voila!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

The same people who fund the NPA and the NDP. Not sure anything political will help at this time. We’ll have to leave it up to President Xi to start arresting and killing.

patriotz
Member
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Housing and affordability will get sorted out at some point and people will eventually catch up with the basic necessity. Much bigger problem is what is left after this RE orgy and that is a toxic, contaminated and infectious society that will continue to deteriorate, due to an enormous amount of garbage that got disposed across the Lower Mainland.

“In Bizarro Vancouver, 25,000 households declare less income than they spend on housing alone. The unusual phenomenon exists in one in ten households across city – with the situation extreme in Arbutus, South Granville and other wealthy neighbourhoods”

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1851003/bizarro-vancouver-25000-households-declare-less-income-they-spend

realist
Member
realist

I’d like to say there something, anything, in this article that is surprising or even unexpected to me, but there isn’t, except to see facts that are unpleasant to certain parties on display for examination.

Garth T
Guest
Garth T

Don’t even try to post it on my site greaterfool.ca

I will delete delete delete.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

I hope these a**holes gets first audits from the fresh mandates of the CRA on their world incomes and then to the flippers.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Ex-admiral: US should defend reef off Philippines

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/ex-admiral-us-should-defend-reef-off-philippines/

A former commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific says the U.S. should be willing to use military force to oppose Chinese aggression at a disputed reef off the coast of the Philippines.

Dennis Blair has made the recommendation to a Senate panel Wednesday, a day after an international tribunal invalidated the legal basis of Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.

space889
Member
space889

Hmmm…hard to enforce a treaty that you yourself is not a signatory to. And Taiwan has done the first dirty work for China by sending a destroyer to the dispute islands.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Should be very interesting: “China vowed to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty over the South China Sea and said it had the right to set up an air defense zone, after rejecting an international tribunal’s ruling denying its claims to the energy-rich waters. ”
Pass the popcorn.

Dave
Member

Might makes right. I prefer that rule over international tribunal’s because it’s more honest. Good for China. They’re becoming a more honest place.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

This theory was disproved 2400 years ago.

space889
Member
space889

So handing back territory to first nations in 3, 2, 1 ….?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Huh?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You would have like Germany in the 1930’s.

Dave
Member

This is not ze pre-sale you’re looking for.

I bet they would be furherious about a housing bubble and that prices end in 888 instead of nein nein nein.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

China’s control freak policies. Does blog monitoring happen here? This confirms what I thought about the Chinese guys who counter every anti-Chinese thought on the comments section of every blog. Look! http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-11/china-s-control-freaks-are-becoming-a-drag

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

About time (thank you Mr Ian Young): A secret strategy briefing for Canada Revenue Agency auditors has revealed plans to crack down on real estate tax cheats in Vancouver, with 50 auditors being assigned to investigate purchases funded by unreported foreign income.
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/1989586/leak-reveals-secret-tax-crackdown-foreign-money-real?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Looks like 50 auditors is not enough. Try 500…… or more.

realist
Member
realist

Thanks, Bubble Tea! Readers, do not miss the above South China Morning Post article by Ian Young. Excellent reporting on rampant tax evasion especially regarding Vancouver RE, and CRA’s absence of investigation and enforcement. “Only one successful audit of worldwide income was conducted in British Columbia in the past year” Why? “CRA bureaucrats previously feared being labelled racist “! and much more…

patriotz
Member

“CRA bureaucrats previously feared being labelled racist “

But not now it seems. Why is that you think.

“These are the values of the Chinese Canadian community and they are also Conservative values.” – Stephen Harper

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

That’s a good start. People like Garth T will play the racist card. The right wingers will do anything to make a buck. The last laugh will be when G’s grandchildren end up sweeping floors in a HAM mansion. Haha.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Want to have your views on immigrations and Quebec’s LLP for the government. Here’s your chance:
https://secure.cic.gc.ca/consultations/ViewsOnImmigration-en.aspx?_ga=1.58172394.1164860621.1464280877

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady at 0.5%”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-poloz-interest-rate-1.3676857

“And despite deciding to keep interest rates near rock bottom, the bank warned again about “financial vulnerabilities” emerging in the red hot Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.”

“”Sharply rising prices in these markets over the past year raise the possibility that prices are also being driven by self-reinforcing expectations, making them more sensitive to an adverse shock,” the bank said.’

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Poloz needs to be canned. Before he even took over at the BoC it was speculated he would be an interest rate dove due to his background and his favoring of the export sector. Canadian interest rates should never have been cut from 1% it was a stupid knee jerk reaction.

wwww
Guest
wwww

Richmond car trader caught turning back the clock
Vehicle Sales Authority ban Arthur Tong and warn people not to buy from dodgy dealer
– See more at: http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-car-trader-caught-turning-back-the-clock-1.2300655#sthash.HXt7gsrM.dpuf

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Cheating, lying and stealing is an usual part of business culture and tradition in certain circles. Exposing and labeling that as criminal ofence is nothing but RACIST.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

A shady car dealer gets more punishment than a shady relator ever would.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Is it true that house affordability is only an issue in Toronto and Vancouver?”, Globe & Mail video
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-carrick-talks-money-is-it-true-that-house-affordability-is-only-an-issue-in-toronto-and-vancouver/article30820680/

“Rob Carrick and Paul Smetanin reveal the surprising places in Canada where housing is unaffordable”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/world/tribunal-no-basis-for-chinas-vast-south-china-sea-claims-386439291.html

Get ready for war? First order of business would be to contain domestic threats. Maybe have checkpoints at all metro vancouver bridges and only allow passage for those deemed not a threat.

China is out of control.

XXX
Guest
XXX
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Local sympathizers to the motherland, we have plenty of those.

All of these “chinese-Canadian” organizations need to be closely monitored as well as profiling of individuals who have pro-china views.

Camps WILL be needed.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Think they already are. There are still some good people left at CSIS, NSEC, and RCMP.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Teck Resources appoints Chinese government official to its board.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/teck-resources-quan-chong-board-1.3674788?cmp=rss

The appointment of a Chinese government official to the board of a B.C.-based mining company is raising concerns about sovereignty in the resource sector in some quarters.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Why aren’t we surprised? It is now a national model, pick the worst garbage if nothing else is available.

paulb
Member

New
313
Sold
216

TI:8839

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The other concern i have today is that China has blatantly said it will ignore international law. They may attack the USA over this. I’m with the USA all the way if the aggression doesn’t stop. Lets help round up the traitor BC politicians if they in any way try to impede the USA by protecting Chinese sleeper cells here.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

The fraud is a part of DNA and culture for some. They just can’t think and function without it.

Vancouver realtor suspended for misconduct in $1.3-million property deal

Lin (Kelly) Kong with Royal Pacific Realty Corp. is temporarily out of the hot Vancouver property market. RELATED STORIES. Real-estate agents’ misconduct means industry has lost right to self-regulate, B.C.

http://goo.gl/XEpwmY

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Wow, the punishments are practically nothing. But what she did sounds horrible and would scare me about selling my place.

patriotz
Member

“would scare me about selling my place.”

You don’t have to list with a sleazeball Chinese realtor you know. Why do you think the seller did?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
The thing is, in real life I’m one of those people who bends over backwards not to be racist or make anyone feel uncomfortable. So if I if I started working with a realtor who then seemed sleazy to me so that my warning signals went off, if she were Chinese in appearance and especially if she had a strong Chinese accent I would probably try to compensate for any possible effects of latent racism in me and stick with her despite a little voice telling me that I shouldn’t. My natural guard against unscrupulous or unethical behaviour in others would be disarmed.This probably works the same way with other people. People want to trust. This is why it is so important for our law and governments to make sure the real estate industry is regulated. Same with other industries… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

^^^ Explains how dishonest behavior in realtors and the like will in the end lead to more laws and more bureaucracy for everyone. Thanks a lot buds. Couldn’t we all just be nice to each other?

(sorry for the length)

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

We don’t know with what kind of criminals and fuck-ups we humbly invited and brought here and let them generously to excel in their dirty game.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
It’s such a violation of trust in an area where that should not occur. If the real estate agents are doing that kind of thing, then should I trust my banker? My accountant? BC is a jurisdiction where equity in real estate is a more exalted and privileged form of storing money than is saving it in a bank. Storing money in real estate is considered by the Premier to be more worthy of protection by the government. She has said as much many times. And yet its guards and gatekeepers can just lie and make up stories at will (as in the above story), whereas I should not think that the guards and gatekeepers of money in the bank can just lie and make up stories at will. But maybe I’m wrong about this. The head of the provincial… Read more »
BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

A must listen from Sun/Province investigating reporter Sam Cooper about Money Laundering in lower mainland Real Estates.
http://cirh.streamon.fm/listen-pl-3712

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Here is what needs to be done. Vacancy tax blah blah blah.

1. Mortgage income documentation MUST be obtained from CRA for every new origination or renewal of all insured mortgages.

2. Residential detached housing can only be bought by Canadian Citizens. Strata can be bought by Canadian Citizens, Permanent residents, and temporary visa holders.

3. Permanent Immigration: set an annual target that is an average of the G7 nations (significant reduction).

4. Temporary Immigration: Abolish the 10 year visitor visa, TFW, and Supervisa classes. Put a cap on international students and only qualify them if they are attending a public institution and in a degree program. This class has the biggest impact on rents as they are all here to get their PR…errr “superior” education.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I think you’d not only collapse the housing market but the economy here as a whole. What planet do you live on? Not possible.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

These strong moves all look good to me except that I would not discriminate against PR with respect to detached housing, especially if the other steps you mention were put into place.

I don’t know what TFW is.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The reason that many immigrants stop at the PR level is because this gives them the right to retain citizenship of the country they are from. I know many PR holders from India that retain Indian citizenship because it gives them land ownership rights and also allows them to collect pensions (work/government) from india. This allows them to “double dip” as a PR can collect OAS and especially GIS here in Canada. Also, because CRA and India aren’t linked, many people here crying poor for these benefits and no MSP premiums have small empress of land built up overseas.

Thats why Canadian detached RE for citizens only!

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Interesting! I hadn’t thought about that aspect of PR.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid
Since the topic of this thread is “Is there a bubble?” I think it’s important to recognize that there are 2 very different housing markets in the region: detached houses and condos. If you look at the numbers, condo prices in the long term have moved much more closely in line with inflation than detached houses have. You could even argue that condos aren’t really in a bubble at all, as supply has mostly kept up with demand. It’s really detached houses that have gone “full retard” in the last 10 years. So is that where the bubble is? I’m not sure – we have the same number of detached houses in the region as we had 25 hears ago, and nearly double the population. So you could argue that there is no bubble here either, but for different reasons.… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Too many people in the pipeline to get a PR in Canada now. Too late….

Thats why rents are going through the roof. 1000 people a day are coming into Vancouver via the various temporary immigration stream. Especially the 10 ear visitor visa. I got 4 relatives coming on the 28th expecting to stay for 2 years…go figure.

The Trudeau Gov really doesn’t care what goes on in BC. They are immigration whores while BC Libs aka Christy is the RE whore.

Dave
Member

You sound like me. Sure you’re not me?

MikeS
Member
MikeS

And a house we were vaguely interested in … in Aldergrove… just went for $950k. That’s about $150k over asking.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

950k in aldergrove you can have it! Unless its a hobby farm that’s nuts! I would like to see the listing.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Beijing ‘will respond with FURY and AGGRESSION’ after court ruling on South China Sea
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/688752/South-China-Sea-dispute-Beijing-rejects-court-ruling-US-warns-further-aggression

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

The chinazis need to be obliterated, wiped off the face of the earth.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

You and Oracle need to start a road show.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

It starting: Today before the ruling the Chinese sunk Vietnamese boats, who knows what they’ll do next .
Two Chinese vessels have rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, an official says.
“They not only sank the fishing boat but tried to prevent other boats from rescuing the fishermen,” said Phan Van On, a spokesman for the Quang Ngai provincial search and rescue agency.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/32031289/chinese-boats-sink-vietnamese-fishermen/#page1

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

cherry picking stats to get headlines.

month-to-month? people only look at that when they want to cherry pick numbers.

sales to listing ratio? who cares. inventory is very low so prices aren’t going down.

people are just listing above market and then having to relist at more sane prices if they are actually serious about buying.

Dave
Member
I agree. It’s way too early in the game to call a top. The bull case is that the market started much earlier this year and therefore, ended earlier. Compare sales, prices and inventory to year over year levels and this is still bull territory. Until we get over 6 months of inventory, don’t expect prices to change, and even then the lag is about 6 months after that happens. We’re not going to know if this year was peak frenzy until early next year. Until then, we’re all just speculating. The truth of the matter is that right now we’re still in a bullish uptrend and that will remain the case until we’re in a downtrend. Sounds simple but people will argue otherwise at times. And don’t get me wrong, I’m calling bubble and I think we might squeeze… Read more »
BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

The Quebec government, running a cash-for-visa program labelled a “fraud” and “scam” by critics who say it hurts British Columbia, received a record-breaking number of rich immigrants in 2015.
“The silence from the B.C. government has been absolutely startling,” said New Democratic Party MLA David Eby.
“every British Columbian who hears about the Quebec program is “appalled,” and yet the Clark government “won’t go to bat” for them.”
http://vancouversun.com/news/national/quebec-immigrant-program-increases-in-popularity-with-downsides-for-b-c/

patriotz
Member

Why should it hurt BC to have rich immigrants? Would you rather have poor immigrants?

What hurts BC is government policies that encourage rich people to park their wealth in RE and not pay their fair share of taxes.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“Why should it hurt BC to have rich immigrants? Would you rather have poor immigrants?”

Seriously? You’d rather be a pit stop for snobs wanting to exploit you than a door opener for people who want to join your team?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Would you rather have poor immigrants?”

Poor immigrants work hard and pay more income taxes than these crooked money launderers.

Poor immigrants adopt our language and culture and make every effort to integrate into our country and strive to become real Canadians while the parasites come here to set up a parallel country like the shithole they came from.

Yeah, bring on the poor immigrants.

franko
Member
franko

Why would it hurt BC to have rich immigrants???

I sure hope your job in the ministry is confined to sharpening pencils and taking out the trash!

different this time
Guest
different this time

Exactly !
they contribute nothing to economy after their tiny transfer tax. Then the plant the wife, kids and old grannie here and back to do some more looting at home

burntout
Guest
burntout

These are not immigrants they are money launderers .

space889
Member
space889

Btw, interest rate can say 0% for as long as central banks want cuz when the market is the central bank and central bank only, it gets to set the price.

space889
Member
space889

World has operated on an international monetary system for most of its recorded history – gold, accepted anywhere in the world for most of the history.

btw, I remember a few years ago, there was the 15K, 16K, 17K, and maybe 18K inventory parties. Now we have sub 9K inventory and that’s going to cause people to panick and dump properties?? Seriously? How delusional can the racist moron bears on this blog get?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

So far this is the only comment on this thread that makes sense.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

But you’re not racist, right?

Check yourself.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“B.C.’s soaring housing starts trigger construction cheers, economists’ concerns”, Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-s-soaring-housing-starts-trigger-construction-cheers-economists-concerns

“Housing starts jumped 40 per cent in B.C. in the first half of this year over last, according to CMHC. That spike has pushed the starts trend in the region to its highest level since 1990.”

“For Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, the combination of slowing sales, increased listings and this big jump in housing starts makes the real estate market somewhat uncertain.” “I don’t know if a crash is coming and I only really see imminent signs, but we’re in an extremely risky position,” Pavlov said Monday.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Justin Fung: An open letter to those who play the race card in the Vancouver housing affordability debate

“Every time we make progress on trying to address housing affordability, we end up getting sidetracked and pulled back to square one with cries of racism. We’ve already seen Gregor Robertson and Bob Rennie do it once, calling out academically peer-reviewed research done by Andy Yan as being “racist”. Now it is Pete McMartin of the Vancouver Sun and Charlie Smith of the Georgia Straight just days after Mike De Jong’s foreign ownership “data” got debunked as being completely irrelevant.”

http://www.straight.com/news/734326/justin-fung-open-letter-those-who-play-race-card-vancouver-housing-affordability-debate

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

There are a few good ones in the media to offset the greedy, white race-baiting boomers like McMartin.

http://www.cknw.com/2016/07/11/editorial-stop-tossing-the-race-card-into-the-housing-debate/

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Inspired.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

http://www.straight.com/news/734326/justin-fung-open-letter-those-who-play-race-card-vancouver-housing-affordability-debate

Apparently it takes a white guy (Pete McMartin) to say that blaming China for our housing crisis is racist, and a Chinese guy to say it isn’t.

We live in interesting times.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Pete McMartin, Bob Ransford, Garth Turner, Cam Muir, Bob Rennie, Gordon Clark, all race-baiting white boomers using their pulpits for their agenda of personal profit.

All of them are sell-out traitors who love the dirty money coming from china as it makes them richer.

franko
Member
franko

News travels fast, but I’d give it another 2 weeks for the real listings explosion to kick in. It should take about that long for sellers who have been holding out for the last buck to spruce up their abodes and make the final preparations.