Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

This means more listing less sales or less listing more sales ?

rockerguy
Member
rockerguy

More listings, less sales. And it’s dramatic. There are only about four samples in July, but they are way above the average trend for July of past years, as the graph shows. Will be interesting to see how the month ends, which I think will confirm whether this is a blip or a true trend.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

It’s dramatic but identical to what’s been happening in September for the past few years. We need to wait to declare victory… to say the least… LOL

Grim
Guest
Grim

july is a far cry from september, this is the main buying season, september is the end.

realist
Member
realist

Perhaps Brexit, and the subsequent decline in RE prices in London, have caused investors’ minds to connect the concept of “risk” to real estate. Fancy that! Most have forgotten, or in the case of the youngsters, never knew.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

IMHO, the Chinese are probably more interested in London right now than Vancouver. That could be why sales in the high end of the West side have stalled. Watching. Waiting. Someone to scoop up anything of value. Everywhere. Cue Meth to add a locust gif.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Omg! That’s the worst one yet.

MikeS
Member
MikeS

The data is the average of (New) minus (Sold) as presented by paulb.

I’ve gone ahead and built some additional graphs.

http://imgur.com/X0Weot7

MikeS
Member
MikeS

Hm maybe this will show up better:

MikeS
Member
MikeS

Alright, I clearly have no idea how to embed images. If Admin can include the linked graph up top that would be awesome, otherwise if someone else can embed it in their comment that would be cool too.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
MikeS
Member
MikeS

Thanks, BPOM!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Thanks for the data.

Something appears to be changing in this market.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

So, in other words, invetory is UP and sales are DOWN?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

More strangely, listings are up from June to July.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

By how much?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

268 vs 288 per day.

Usually it’s the reverse, around 10% lower.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Well this past bull run has been extremely sharp. A sharp short shock it’s looking like. Whether or not prices fall in response is anyone’s guess. We have to pass 15K listings.

paulb
Member

New
300
Sold
237

TI:8962

http://www.paulboenisch.com

ttul
Member

Paul, do you want write access to this sheet so that you can update the numbers directly? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/edit?usp=sharing

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

New poster, new metric, same old story. Whatever happened to the “number of trucks I saw downtown with locked toolboxes” housing index? I liked that one.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Eventually we’all have pickups at auction but it will take a while for that. North Dakota became the cheapest place to buy a white pickup when oil tanked…

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Watch out for the new “number of chinese navy ships at the bottom of the sea” metric coming soon.

The whole world is going to love that one.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

oh no, the end of the world is here…again! go catch a pokemon, bears, if you have nothing else to do.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yep, fiddle when it’s burning. Cabaret while they march outside. The entertainments get more inane the closer we get to midnight.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

lol. reminds me of VHB. How’s the real estate agent hunger index doing?

u guys seeing a lot of used BMW SUVs on sale on craigslist HAHAHAHAHA!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I’m laughing too but I can feel a stirring down there when I look at that graph. Can’t tell if it’s coming from my balls or my bowels.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Let the trend be your frend!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The bears here should have taken that advice 8 years ago.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

8 years ago the market was just beginning to nosedive, it was literally the first month that prices dropped.

Why do people keep bringing up the number 8? I don’t understand the significance of this.

Funkey monkey
Guest
Funkey monkey

i am watching houses in my neighborhood not sell as we speak my neighbors house 3 weeks so far. South van by the way.

elvince
Guest
elvince

By historical standard, 3 weeks for a sale is a lightning fast sale. There was a time we used to speak about months.

Funkey monkey
Guest
Funkey monkey

I sold my house in one day. As soon as the sign went in the ground.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

You ruined a perfectly nice lawn for nothing.
You are a realtor.
Why did you even put up a sign?
And, stop bragging.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

At some point, the thousands of millionaire-on-paper lottery winning homeowners will stop thinking “I can get even more if I wait” and start thinking “What if prices start going down?”

When the tide turns, it can turn pretty quickly.

patriotz
Member

Most owner-occupiers never do. It’s a hassle to sell and move. It’s really the shift of investors from the buy to sell side that turns the tide.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

True.
But this is probably the first time in history when many homeowners are sitting on 1mill plus lottery tickets.
Could be money enough to overcome the hassles of moving.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

“Most owner-occupiers never do. It’s a hassle to sell and move. It’s really the shift of investors from the buy to sell side that turns the tide.”

Hm. “Owner-occupiers” vs” investors”. When it comes to Vancouver real estate, I’m not so sure the difference is as distinct as you seem to think.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is true, but I have several friends who have sold this year because the temptation to cash out and rent was too great. Many retirees are also planning to use their home equity at some point. If they get the idea that prices are going to fall over the long term, quite a few will act like investors.

patriotz
Member

“Many retirees are also planning to use their home equity at some point”

By selling or by borrowing? Which one is easier? Also most homeowners aren’t tuned in the market and keep wearing rose coloured glasses. Most Americans thought house prices were still rising until 2008, when in fact they had been falling since 2006.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Why don’t they just move out, leaving the furniture, and rent to the film industry. That way they can try life outside Gregor’s Precioussss.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Most owner occupiers can’t stand not owning and seeing renting as throwing away money. The only way they will cash out is to move to a cheaper area and buy again, the majority are serial owners. Where I think it will be interesting is at first it will be “we’re not paper millionaires anymore, so what”, but then when they find that the bank cuts their LOC down and they have to start living the $70k/yr lifestyle instead of the $200k/yr credit has been allowing them to fake…well, they will have to
choose lifestyle
or house. My bet is on lifestyle, face is a big motivator.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Or to put it another way, if the general population came to believ that prices were about to fall, I strongly suspect you would suddenly see a very large number of owner-occupiers deciding that moving isn’t such a big hassle after all.

In my experience everyone hates to lose, even on paper. This includes many Vancouver owner-occupiers I have talked to.

patriotz
Member

“if the general population came to believ that prices were about to fall”

Then they would stop buying. A far more significant factor in busts than owner occupiers deciding to sell. But people stop buying mainly because they can’t – as I’ve noted people don’t catch on even when prices actually are falling. In the great Vancouver bust which started in 1981, people really didn’t catch on until the recession in 1982.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

most of the homeowners dont give a rat ass about up and down. it’s only stupid-envy-jealousy-bears making up charts to calm their fear.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You real estate cheerleaders seem to be edgy today.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

We’ve also entered a fear-of-Chinese-money territory where locals feel they will be out/out if they sell and move from their hood. In other words, if you’re planning to give Coombs or Victoria a try, you may never be able to come back, not to mention Dunbar and Point Grey.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

China factor slowing?
“The $4 billion in capital that entered Vancouver between February and March to support house price gains had dropped to just under 1/2 billion in June.” Garth T
“Hong Kong facing weakest real estate market in 25 years. Singapore is also suffering from the economic slowdown in China” The Real Deal
“As Australia prepares for a correction, Chinese buying of U.S. housing units falls 15 percent” G Straight
“Tsawassen saw a 48% increase year over year… Now dead.” This from a predominant Realtor in area.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

still reading garth? wanna buy my farm?

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Garth may be wrong 90% of the time but there’s the 10% and I believe he may be right because many of the real estates agents had said the same thing.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

WAaaa? Garth admits 4 billion has come from China? How does his wife sleep with him?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Fear and greed. There has been far too much greed in the Vancouver real estate market psychology for far too long. So long, in fact, that I think we may have collectively forgotten what fear is like. We may be about to find out.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

As long as debt increases, it is easy to think of debt as wealth. It is only when no more debt can be raised, and one has to spend one’s own money paying the interest (or, heaven forbid, the principal) that debt feels like debt. Who knows, that time may be a very long way off. Banks live off issuing debt and, as long as central banks urge them to do it, they may continue to do so.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

If this severe market slow down continues buyers can make offers with subjects again! Wouldn’t that be amazing?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I would never buy a place without a home inspection first. So yes, is amazing. A door seems to be opening, a tiny tiny bit.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Currently, in Vancouver, you two inspections: one of the house and one of the buyer’s head.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You can have the inspection done before making the offer. No subjects does not necessarily mean no inspection.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

In most any other jurisdiction in North America it is done before any offer is made. Even in SFO.

I don’t know how people do it here when places have been selling so fast.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Van Rant…

I agree with you.

It;s better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and THEN right, rather than the other way around.

paulb
Member

New
253
Sold
87
TI:9093

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Thanks paul. 9000 party!

Ooh Wee
Guest
Ooh Wee

could this be the turning point? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEYGjFzPuXM

ttul
Member

Inventory velocity chart: https://goo.gl/ZBwOXU

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Oooooh! I’d love to see an updated graph!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Hmm…while CURRENT listings may still be on the low side, think of all the NEW construction of SFH, Townhouses and especially condos throughout the GVRD since this mega-bubble began. Therefore, there is a POTENTIAL for a tidal wave of listings yet to come…right?

vangrl
Member
vangrl

If Telus Gardens is any indication then yes. It just completed last week and already 17% of the entire building is up for resale on MLS. We have a slew of completions coming up in 2017-2018, lots of “luxury towers” downtown.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“4 more listings since I posted this Thursday. Bringing the number to 17% and growing” from @SteveSaretsky on Twitter

Funkey monkey
Guest
Funkey monkey

I remember in 2008 my neighbors getting caught with two condos in Burnaby. They were trying to sell for 15k less each from what they bought in presale. The condos beside the bowling ally Gilmore?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

How long did it take to build that thing? Didn’t it go on sale in 2006? Sure feels like it’s been a long while in blog years since we first discussed it.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

South china sea ruling fallout:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-nationalists-taking-anger-anything-145452949.html

Butthurt chinamen taking out their frustrations on all things American.

I’m sure their rejection of American products means they’ll also stop stealing American technology – NOT!

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Dozens of “patriots” in Jiangsu marched to picket Apple Store, went to a fake one!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What’s the American response, burn down all the dollar stores?

Boner
Guest
Boner

Just as I suspected… sales falling price drops, and now that bubble has popped new is mainstream everyone is scurring to list and sell at the top….well should have sold 2 months ago…all down hill from here. Funny thing is most will hold off and wait but will only regret it, the trend down is here for a long time.. Kiss those 30% paper gains last yr goodbuy.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You guys are over reacting.

China money continues to come in. Nothing changed.

Temp immigration thru the roof.

Until you stop that, good luck looking at sales, listings etc. Prices at worst will plateau as sellers know more buyers from overseas on the way.

1000 people per day coming here.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

…of the 1000 on the 10 year visitor visa, about 2-300 plan to stay here permanently.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

and why are people here quoting Garth T???

are you that gullible?? he is a banker with motives.

get your fucking head out of the sand. the guy doesn’t want to acknowledge HAM

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Take a lude, dude.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

He acknowledges it. And he acknowledges that the available stats generally indicate that it has a negligible impact on the market.

However, unlike Pope, he does not tolerate hate speech and racism on his blog under some misguided notion of “free speech”. It’s not racist to discuss foreign money or immigration. But it is racist to resort to some of the terms the simpletons here casually throw around. When your only defence is trying to define the word “race” vs “nationality” then you clearly have a problem. Bashing Garth is simply a diversion.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

There’s no such thing as race — no biological grounding for it. It’s an artificial construct based on superficial appearance and people’s attempts to separate themselves from other people. “Race” is not a biological category.

There is such a thing as nationality. Nationality is a political and legal notion. There is also such a thing as ethnicity. Ethnicity is a cultural and historical notion. Sometimes when people want to use the word “race” a better word to employ would be “ethnicity”.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

And nationalities are very relevant to everything since nations are laws unto themselves. The United Nations does not have much power.

patriotz
Member

“There’s no such thing as race — no biological grounding for it.”

Well there’s no biological grounding for religion either. It’s the artificial constructs that really divide people. If they think “race” matters, however they define it, then it matters.

And “racism” is the idea that someone’s “race” defines their social characteristics in some inherent way.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Agreed, but religions are relatively well-defined by the doctrines, texts and practices of their adherents. By contrast, race is not at all well defined and in particular not defined by physical characteristics. There are no essential physical characteristics A, B, C such that, if and only if you have those characteristics you belong to race R. It is true that there are regional adaptations but those cross cut the labeling of races.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Shut says: “When your only defence is trying to define the word “race” vs “nationality” then you clearly have a problem.” as if the difference between the two is inconsequential. On the contrary, only racists could think they were the same.

Once again. nationalities are very real. Race is not real. (Biologists do not countenance race as a category — the idea of a race is not a scientific idea). Hence there is a difference between race and nationality.

Why did Shut get five points?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Enough with the race card blah blah blah

That is so last year.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

He probably has a girlfriend from china, like mayor Qu.

Now his allegiance is to the motherland.

Saul
Guest
Saul

LMAO… he has a girlfriend… he has a girlfriend… no way, not even leftovers from China that ended up here in massage parlours, c’mon man…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s amazing the fantasies you guys will entertain when your world view is challenged, as you can’t for a second consider the possibility that you might be – you know – wrong.

Clearly I’m in the minority here for thinking it’s unacceptable to use the racial slurs you do. Good job that this blog doesn’t represent the population at large.

Admin – give your head a shake for implicitly continuing to support this.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What a condescending, whiny prick you are.

If you hate free speech so much then move to china and don’t ever come around this board again.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And need new new pads for GT?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Knee

Pointy Haired Boss
Guest
Pointy Haired Boss
Boner
Guest
Boner

10K Party by July 31st Woooo whooo

Truth
Guest
Truth

24 listings pre-sale on mls for that new Vancouver House tower by Beach…heard they are having issues with the ground being wet and they might have to cut height by 30%, new design same as typical Vancouver shoebox. engineer says no meet earthquake protection guideline.. this ship is really sinking no pun intended

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Link to issue with ground being wet?

Funkey monkey
Guest
Funkey monkey

Yes link? I have coffee across the street a couple times a week. I’ve noticed it is taking a long time to finish the foundation.

wpDiscuz