TTUL shared this graph of whats happening lately in the listing vs sales ratio. This is a sharp difference from the last few years, but it’s only been a short trend:
TTUL also shares a link to his data, which is based on numbers shared regularly on this site by realtor Paul Boenisch.
British Columbia imposes 15 percent property transfer tax on foreign home buyers http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-housing-tax-idUSKCN10525A?il=0
Garth Turner said that prices in Calgary are currently down 4% WITH MORE PRICE DECLINES TO COME.
GT now saying Calgary housing correction almost done. 4% crash. Hahaha. Saying it has been 2 years in the making. And maybe take longer than that to recover.
Hahaha. My stomach. Can’t breathe. Did that guy really write that?
Probably say 4% correction for Vancouver prices after a 50% runup. Then will say I told you so.
Crooked Garth.
“Booming B.C. housing market helps province post $730 million surplus”, Toronto Star
“The surplus is more than double original forecast. B.C. also reported economic growth of 3 per cent.”
Trump just delivered his acceptance speech, after which china looked around and discovered that it has a gaping new asshole.
GO TRUMP!!!
Trump is a rich guy /elitist snickering behind his hand at the rednecks who support him.
If you really think he wants to inflate the cost of labour by bringing jobs home to the US, you are delusional.
I hope Trump wins. Will tear up Nafta and cause a depression in Canada. Will kill the job market and then people will become anti-immigrant. That will kill house prices.
Got to be selfish these days. Nice guys will finish last.
John McComb talks Van RE and buying from one country and government failures.
New
173
Sold
155
TI:9062
I would have to think that this:
Could explain the sharp rise in listings. If Canada and China ratify an agreement on how to seize real estate purchased with bad loans from China, then I would think others in the same situation would start moving assets to another country before their assets get tied up in this too.
Does this mean China becomes the ghost owner? Maybe they want to strip and hold?
I found this article: http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2015-05/26/content_20817730.htm
It will be interesting to find out Canada’s share of the proceeds.
Maybe they auction it off to liquidate?
I just noticed a few price drops of 200K (10%) of a few places in my hood (west van).
Blood in the water ? Time will tell.
MOI for West Van houses just shot up from 5 to 10 in the last few weeks.
Benchmark prices are going to fall there first.
Regarding CITIC’s Lawsuit
“And since Canada would do nothing to hinder the parking of hot Chinese money locally, China decided to take matters into its own hands. If successful, and it will be as we doubt Mr. Yan will dare to appear in court resulting in a prompt confiscation of his assets, the action will have a chilling effect on all future purchases, and will most likely lead to a selling avalanche as the Chinese elite in Vancouver scramble to offload its domestic assets and find a new safe haven where it can park its money for the next few years.
In other words, with CITIC’s lawsuit, the beginning of the end of Vancouver’s housing bubble has officially begun.”
A. You’re quoting from Zero Hedge
B. You’re forgetting not every dollar out of China is stolen or laundered
C. Everytime the market shifts, the Bears make a fool of themselves by proclaiming victory
As GOP trashes China, Beijing warns of potential war with U.S.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/07/21/china-gop-convention/87380604/
Meanwhile we are letting in thousands of potential enemies in every day. Heaven help us.
How pathetic is this? Are Canadian officials scared to not accidentally offend those criminals?
“While the statement from Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion doesn’t name China specifically it appears to be aimed at the country.”
Dion is spineless, we all saw how he stood by silently terrified while that fucking chinaman was berating a reporter in OUR country and attacking free speech in OUR country.
Just wait until 2030 when China becomes a real superpower.
Enabled by coward a-holes like Dion.
24 listings pre-sale on mls for that new Vancouver House tower by Beach…heard they are having issues with the ground being wet and they might have to cut height by 30%, new design same as typical Vancouver shoebox. engineer says no meet earthquake protection guideline.. this ship is really sinking no pun intended
Link to issue with ground being wet?
Yes link? I have coffee across the street a couple times a week. I’ve noticed it is taking a long time to finish the foundation.
10K Party by July 31st Woooo whooo
and why are people here quoting Garth T???
are you that gullible?? he is a banker with motives.
get your fucking head out of the sand. the guy doesn’t want to acknowledge HAM
Take a lude, dude.
He acknowledges it. And he acknowledges that the available stats generally indicate that it has a negligible impact on the market.
However, unlike Pope, he does not tolerate hate speech and racism on his blog under some misguided notion of “free speech”. It’s not racist to discuss foreign money or immigration. But it is racist to resort to some of the terms the simpletons here casually throw around. When your only defence is trying to define the word “race” vs “nationality” then you clearly have a problem. Bashing Garth is simply a diversion.
There’s no such thing as race — no biological grounding for it. It’s an artificial construct based on superficial appearance and people’s attempts to separate themselves from other people. “Race” is not a biological category.
There is such a thing as nationality. Nationality is a political and legal notion. There is also such a thing as ethnicity. Ethnicity is a cultural and historical notion. Sometimes when people want to use the word “race” a better word to employ would be “ethnicity”.
And nationalities are very relevant to everything since nations are laws unto themselves. The United Nations does not have much power.
“There’s no such thing as race — no biological grounding for it.”
Well there’s no biological grounding for religion either. It’s the artificial constructs that really divide people. If they think “race” matters, however they define it, then it matters.
And “racism” is the idea that someone’s “race” defines their social characteristics in some inherent way.
Agreed, but religions are relatively well-defined by the doctrines, texts and practices of their adherents. By contrast, race is not at all well defined and in particular not defined by physical characteristics. There are no essential physical characteristics A, B, C such that, if and only if you have those characteristics you belong to race R. It is true that there are regional adaptations but those cross cut the labeling of races.
Shut says: “When your only defence is trying to define the word “race” vs “nationality” then you clearly have a problem.” as if the difference between the two is inconsequential. On the contrary, only racists could think they were the same.
Once again. nationalities are very real. Race is not real. (Biologists do not countenance race as a category — the idea of a race is not a scientific idea). Hence there is a difference between race and nationality.
Why did Shut get five points?
Enough with the race card blah blah blah
That is so last year.
He probably has a girlfriend from china, like mayor Qu.
Now his allegiance is to the motherland.
LMAO… he has a girlfriend… he has a girlfriend… no way, not even leftovers from China that ended up here in massage parlours, c’mon man…
It’s amazing the fantasies you guys will entertain when your world view is challenged, as you can’t for a second consider the possibility that you might be – you know – wrong.
Clearly I’m in the minority here for thinking it’s unacceptable to use the racial slurs you do. Good job that this blog doesn’t represent the population at large.
Admin – give your head a shake for implicitly continuing to support this.
What a condescending, whiny prick you are.
If you hate free speech so much then move to china and don’t ever come around this board again.
And need new new pads for GT?
Knee
…of the 1000 on the 10 year visitor visa, about 2-300 plan to stay here permanently.
You guys are over reacting.
China money continues to come in. Nothing changed.
Temp immigration thru the roof.
Until you stop that, good luck looking at sales, listings etc. Prices at worst will plateau as sellers know more buyers from overseas on the way.
1000 people per day coming here.
Just as I suspected… sales falling price drops, and now that bubble has popped new is mainstream everyone is scurring to list and sell at the top….well should have sold 2 months ago…all down hill from here. Funny thing is most will hold off and wait but will only regret it, the trend down is here for a long time.. Kiss those 30% paper gains last yr goodbuy.
South china sea ruling fallout:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-nationalists-taking-anger-anything-145452949.html
Butthurt chinamen taking out their frustrations on all things American.
I’m sure their rejection of American products means they’ll also stop stealing American technology – NOT!
Dozens of “patriots” in Jiangsu marched to picket Apple Store, went to a fake one!
What’s the American response, burn down all the dollar stores?
Hmm…while CURRENT listings may still be on the low side, think of all the NEW construction of SFH, Townhouses and especially condos throughout the GVRD since this mega-bubble began. Therefore, there is a POTENTIAL for a tidal wave of listings yet to come…right?
If Telus Gardens is any indication then yes. It just completed last week and already 17% of the entire building is up for resale on MLS. We have a slew of completions coming up in 2017-2018, lots of “luxury towers” downtown.
“4 more listings since I posted this Thursday. Bringing the number to 17% and growing” from @SteveSaretsky on Twitter
I remember in 2008 my neighbors getting caught with two condos in Burnaby. They were trying to sell for 15k less each from what they bought in presale. The condos beside the bowling ally Gilmore?
How long did it take to build that thing? Didn’t it go on sale in 2006? Sure feels like it’s been a long while in blog years since we first discussed it.
Oooooh! I’d love to see an updated graph!
New
253
Sold
87
TI:9093
Thanks paul. 9000 party!
could this be the turning point? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEYGjFzPuXM
Inventory velocity chart: https://goo.gl/ZBwOXU
Van Rant…
I agree with you.
It;s better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and THEN right, rather than the other way around.
If this severe market slow down continues buyers can make offers with subjects again! Wouldn’t that be amazing?
I would never buy a place without a home inspection first. So yes, is amazing. A door seems to be opening, a tiny tiny bit.
Currently, in Vancouver, you two inspections: one of the house and one of the buyer’s head.
You can have the inspection done before making the offer. No subjects does not necessarily mean no inspection.
In most any other jurisdiction in North America it is done before any offer is made. Even in SFO.
I don’t know how people do it here when places have been selling so fast.
Fear and greed. There has been far too much greed in the Vancouver real estate market psychology for far too long. So long, in fact, that I think we may have collectively forgotten what fear is like. We may be about to find out.
As long as debt increases, it is easy to think of debt as wealth. It is only when no more debt can be raised, and one has to spend one’s own money paying the interest (or, heaven forbid, the principal) that debt feels like debt. Who knows, that time may be a very long way off. Banks live off issuing debt and, as long as central banks urge them to do it, they may continue to do so.
China factor slowing?
“The $4 billion in capital that entered Vancouver between February and March to support house price gains had dropped to just under 1/2 billion in June.” Garth T
“Hong Kong facing weakest real estate market in 25 years. Singapore is also suffering from the economic slowdown in China” The Real Deal
“As Australia prepares for a correction, Chinese buying of U.S. housing units falls 15 percent” G Straight
“Tsawassen saw a 48% increase year over year… Now dead.” This from a predominant Realtor in area.
still reading garth? wanna buy my farm?
Garth may be wrong 90% of the time but there’s the 10% and I believe he may be right because many of the real estates agents had said the same thing.
WAaaa? Garth admits 4 billion has come from China? How does his wife sleep with him?
