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Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

At some point, the thousands of millionaire-on-paper lottery winning homeowners will stop thinking “I can get even more if I wait” and start thinking “What if prices start going down?”

When the tide turns, it can turn pretty quickly.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

We’ve also entered a fear-of-Chinese-money territory where locals feel they will be out/out if they sell and move from their hood. In other words, if you’re planning to give Coombs or Victoria a try, you may never be able to come back, not to mention Dunbar and Point Grey.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

most of the homeowners dont give a rat ass about up and down. it’s only stupid-envy-jealousy-bears making up charts to calm their fear.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You real estate cheerleaders seem to be edgy today.

patriotz
Member

Most owner-occupiers never do. It’s a hassle to sell and move. It’s really the shift of investors from the buy to sell side that turns the tide.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Or to put it another way, if the general population came to believ that prices were about to fall, I strongly suspect you would suddenly see a very large number of owner-occupiers deciding that moving isn’t such a big hassle after all.

In my experience everyone hates to lose, even on paper. This includes many Vancouver owner-occupiers I have talked to.

patriotz
Member

“if the general population came to believ that prices were about to fall”

Then they would stop buying. A far more significant factor in busts than owner occupiers deciding to sell. But people stop buying mainly because they can’t – as I’ve noted people don’t catch on even when prices actually are falling. In the great Vancouver bust which started in 1981, people really didn’t catch on until the recession in 1982.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is true, but I have several friends who have sold this year because the temptation to cash out and rent was too great. Many retirees are also planning to use their home equity at some point. If they get the idea that prices are going to fall over the long term, quite a few will act like investors.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Most owner occupiers can’t stand not owning and seeing renting as throwing away money. The only way they will cash out is to move to a cheaper area and buy again, the majority are serial owners. Where I think it will be interesting is at first it will be “we’re not paper millionaires anymore, so what”, but then when they find that the bank cuts their LOC down and they have to start living the $70k/yr lifestyle instead of the $200k/yr credit has been allowing them to fake…well, they will have to
choose lifestyle
or house. My bet is on lifestyle, face is a big motivator.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Why don’t they just move out, leaving the furniture, and rent to the film industry. That way they can try life outside Gregor’s Precioussss.

patriotz
Member

“Many retirees are also planning to use their home equity at some point”

By selling or by borrowing? Which one is easier? Also most homeowners aren’t tuned in the market and keep wearing rose coloured glasses. Most Americans thought house prices were still rising until 2008, when in fact they had been falling since 2006.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

“Most owner-occupiers never do. It’s a hassle to sell and move. It’s really the shift of investors from the buy to sell side that turns the tide.”

Hm. “Owner-occupiers” vs” investors”. When it comes to Vancouver real estate, I’m not so sure the difference is as distinct as you seem to think.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

True.
But this is probably the first time in history when many homeowners are sitting on 1mill plus lottery tickets.
Could be money enough to overcome the hassles of moving.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

i am watching houses in my neighborhood not sell as we speak my neighbors house 3 weeks so far. South van by the way.

elvince
Guest
elvince

By historical standard, 3 weeks for a sale is a lightning fast sale. There was a time we used to speak about months.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

I sold my house in one day. As soon as the sign went in the ground.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

You ruined a perfectly nice lawn for nothing.
You are a realtor.
Why did you even put up a sign?
And, stop bragging.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Let the trend be your frend!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The bears here should have taken that advice 8 years ago.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

8 years ago the market was just beginning to nosedive, it was literally the first month that prices dropped.

Why do people keep bringing up the number 8? I don’t understand the significance of this.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

lol. reminds me of VHB. How’s the real estate agent hunger index doing?

u guys seeing a lot of used BMW SUVs on sale on craigslist HAHAHAHAHA!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I’m laughing too but I can feel a stirring down there when I look at that graph. Can’t tell if it’s coming from my balls or my bowels.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

oh no, the end of the world is here…again! go catch a pokemon, bears, if you have nothing else to do.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yep, fiddle when it’s burning. Cabaret while they march outside. The entertainments get more inane the closer we get to midnight.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

New poster, new metric, same old story. Whatever happened to the “number of trucks I saw downtown with locked toolboxes” housing index? I liked that one.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Watch out for the new “number of chinese navy ships at the bottom of the sea” metric coming soon.

The whole world is going to love that one.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Eventually we’all have pickups at auction but it will take a while for that. North Dakota became the cheapest place to buy a white pickup when oil tanked…

paulb
Member

New
300
Sold
237

TI:8962

http://www.paulboenisch.com

ttul
Member

Paul, do you want write access to this sheet so that you can update the numbers directly? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/edit?usp=sharing

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

So, in other words, invetory is UP and sales are DOWN?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

More strangely, listings are up from June to July.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

By how much?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

268 vs 288 per day.

Usually it’s the reverse, around 10% lower.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Well this past bull run has been extremely sharp. A sharp short shock it’s looking like. Whether or not prices fall in response is anyone’s guess. We have to pass 15K listings.

MikeS
Member
MikeS

The data is the average of (New) minus (Sold) as presented by paulb.

I’ve gone ahead and built some additional graphs.

http://imgur.com/X0Weot7

MikeS
Member
MikeS

Hm maybe this will show up better:

MikeS
Member
MikeS

Alright, I clearly have no idea how to embed images. If Admin can include the linked graph up top that would be awesome, otherwise if someone else can embed it in their comment that would be cool too.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
MikeS
Member
MikeS

Thanks, BPOM!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Thanks for the data.

Something appears to be changing in this market.

realist
Member
realist

Perhaps Brexit, and the subsequent decline in RE prices in London, have caused investors’ minds to connect the concept of “risk” to real estate. Fancy that! Most have forgotten, or in the case of the youngsters, never knew.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

IMHO, the Chinese are probably more interested in London right now than Vancouver. That could be why sales in the high end of the West side have stalled. Watching. Waiting. Someone to scoop up anything of value. Everywhere. Cue Meth to add a locust gif.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Omg! That’s the worst one yet.

OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

This means more listing less sales or less listing more sales ?

rockerguy
Member
rockerguy

More listings, less sales. And it’s dramatic. There are only about four samples in July, but they are way above the average trend for July of past years, as the graph shows. Will be interesting to see how the month ends, which I think will confirm whether this is a blip or a true trend.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

It’s dramatic but identical to what’s been happening in September for the past few years. We need to wait to declare victory… to say the least… LOL

Grim
Guest
Grim

july is a far cry from september, this is the main buying season, september is the end.