Some thoughts on the Vancouver foreign buyer tax

Yesterdays surprise announcement of a 15% tax on purchase of real estate by foreign buyers has some people cheering, some jeering and some people scratching their heads. Here are a few thoughts pulled from yesterdays thread:

Franko sees it as a positive for affordability:

The province taxing foreign buyers.
The city taxing vacant properties.
The CRA going after tax evaders.
It all would have been unthinkable a year ago, but the biggest hit by far will come from China clamping down on money fleeing the country. HAM is soo over….and it will lead the stampede to the exit.

Patriotz is a little more sceptical:

Christy wants to eat her cake and have it too, i.e. be seen to be “doing something” in Vancouver while keeping the floodgates open and directing the money to Abbotsford and points east – which is where her greatest electoral support is. And get extra revenue from foreign buyers who just have to buy in the taxable area.

MarKoz points out the obvious:

Foreign speculators could avoid paying the tax by getting friends or family who are permanent residents to buy on their behalf. Or the tax may lead to inflated housing prices in cities such as Victoria, Kelowna or Toronto.

LS in Arbutus says maybe not so easy to avoid the tax:

I wanted to point out that there are anti-avoidance measures in the legislation. An Anti-Avoidance Rule is typically a statutory rule that empowers a revenue authority to deny taxpayers the benefit of an arrangement that they have entered into for an impermissible tax-related purpose. Soooo I guess you can still gift your wife/kids money to buy a house, but you generally much more shenanigans than that would be caught in this type of rule. They are very wide sweeping these rules.

bullwhip29 points out how lucky some politicians are that the tax only applies to one area:

as luck would have it, mike de jong has all his eggs located just outside of greater vancouver and wont be affected by any of this (or least not in a negative way)

No matter what your thoughts are on this issue you’ve got to agree it’s pretty much the big news story in the Vancouver real estate market lately and it’s likely going to take a while to see what sort of effect it has on the local and related markets.

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donald t
Guest
donald t

Foreigner just spent 1B in a month in Vancouver.
Tax 50% of the profit when sell, and 10X Property Tax during ownership.
Got them by the balls.

You can call it no fair, but when
Vancouver school has to cut the Music Programs due to lack of funding, has anyone say anything?

Words from DT

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

I billion/month foreign purchases of Van RE on a declining market may be very low. I remember a few months ago when 20% over asking/400 sales per day was common, so sales to foreigners could be 2 or more billion.

Dave
Member

The biggest industry in BC right now is importation of millionaires. The challenge for policy makers is achieving a soft landing. It rarely seems to play out that way in economics. I think the probability of the bubble continuing or popping is higher than hitting that soft landing.

I think 15% is not a big deterrent, so my bet is the money flow continues.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

There is no such thing as a “soft landing”.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
agreed. the 15% will only apply to a few going forward. the cash that has already poured into this market isnt going anywhere. these people arent leaving or taking their money elsewhere. there are also lots of creative folks out there who have been working on ways to circumvent such a rule should it be implemented. my guess is the abbotsfords, victorias, kelownas and even sechelts of the world become destinations for some of the hot money leaving average working locals with NO remaining options if they want to own a detached home complete with white picket fence somewhere in this PROVINCE let alone gr vanc, which was sold out a long time ago (to people who will never sell). fast forward a yr or two and people province wide (vs those concentrated in vanc area) will be bitching…and for… Read more »
Kim
Guest
Kim

The Libs have done what most of us never thought they would do. The government is actually serious. They also just took away self regulation from realtors, which is a big deal. If they see bubbles forming in kelowna, etc. they will act.

patriotz
Member

When Christy was running in that byelection in West Kelowna in 2013, she said she would buy a house there because she thought prices were going to go back up (keep in mind that Kelowna saw the biggest drop in BC in 2008-9 and was still near bottom).

If there’s any place in the province where prices can’t go up too much, it’s Kelowna. You think Vancouver depends on RE?

patriotz
Member

“They also just took away self regulation from realtors, which is a big deal.”

Should have added that was because they were regarded as ripping off sellers.

I don’t this this government is at all serious about controlling prices. If it was that tax would be 50%, not 15%.

MarKoz
Member

…and they would be looking at the nationality of the purchase funds, not the nationality of the purchaser.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

You don’t know Chinese people very well. They will be absolutely furious that the price has suddenly increased. You can read stories about tourists peeing on the street, because the price for the bathroom is more than they find acceptable. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1671504/rude-awakening-chinese-tourists-have-means-not-manners

My mother took me to Mr. Sub when I was a kid. She had a coupon to buy a sub, but the cashier told her it was expired. I really wanted a sub after getting hyped up for it. My mother said screw that and we left. She ended up spending more money on pizza. The tax is small, but it will infuriate Chinese and they will happily spend elsewhere.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Hmm, sounds just like those Australians assholes, too. Ever seen them in Bali? I have. Not pretty.

patriotz
Member

If Mr. Sub doesn’t accept your coupon, you can’t get them to drop the price by 15% because they can sell to someone else for the full price. On the other hand, the multimillion $ properties that the rich foreigners buy aren’t going to be bought by locals unless the price goes down substantially. So figure out what happens.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’m quote Garth here, because I am too lazy to look it up myself, but, “….The data shows the average amount spent by Canadian buyers in Van was $911,425, while the average spent by the (allegedly) money-laundering, property-snorfling foreigners was $946,945. …. In other words, over 90% of all the real estate deals were consummated by local families, who spent about exactly the same as the gazillionaires from you-know-where.”

david
Guest
david

This tax is a job-creation project…..foreign buyers can save $200K, $400K, $800K….by finding a Canadian party to act as the legal buyer and avoid the tax.

Real estate lawyers and brokers will have such contracts, complete with the required redirections and numbered accounts, already figured out I’d bet.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It seems that the 90% of the “locals” drive this market.. So what now?

david
Guest
david

You believe that? From the liars who kept saying it was zero?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Yes. Because it;s a “fact”.

david
Guest
david

Government facts. Always reliable.

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

dumbass, its foreign money.

my cousin who’s son is a foreign student got PR recently and they bought a house under his name. he is counted as a local.

when the public turns against immigration, its game over for real estate.

patriotz
Member

” he is counted as a local”

Because he is a local. As I’ve said before, foreign buyers aren’t the main problem. The main problem is people owning properties out of line with their reported incomes, and the solution is imputing income from assets. Something Christy won’t go near.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

“As I’ve said before…” Thank you professor. You’ve been wrong for a decade so try not to get full of more hot air than your bubble señor.

jhgf
Guest
jhgf

18% foreign buyers in Burnaby is not a problem as a contribution to higher prices? That’s nearly 1 in 5….and that’s just the official figure. What are you smoking Patriotz?

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

That was meant for boombust

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Just when I thought Garth could not sink any lower, now this:
“It’s the 2016 version of the Chinese head tax that the province just finished apologizing for 26 months ago.”
Wow. Just WOW!

david
Guest
david

‘His self-confidence is horrifying’.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Garth. You don’t live in Vancouver. You don’t walk around the streets or interact with people in different neighborhoods. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

He is a foreign money shill. he’s old now so he won’t be around for that long. Probably end up going to hell for all the misleading he done.

david
Guest
david

If the government is willing to finally admit that information it gathered shows that 1-in-10 Vancouver real estate deals is from foreign buyers, then:

1) you can bet your last nickel the ACTUAL data gathered shows it to be materially higher than that, and the government is lying to save its own skin. So figure 1.5 or maybe 2 out of 10 deals, not one.

2) Regardless of the foregoing, ANY government data gathered isn’t even close to correct to begin with….because government in Canada simply doesn’t get anything right. Ever.
So its probably safe to multiply the ‘non-whitewashed’ data gathered by 1.5 or 2.

So that results in between 2.25 and 4 sales out of 10.
I’d put much more faith in that guestimate than anything coming from utter, conflicted liars.

Dinnertime
Guest
Dinnertime

Wow. That’s a lot of straw you used to construct that argument. I hope you have a fire extinguisher handy, it is the hot season.

david
Guest
david

Zero.
Nadda.
Zippo.
Not happening.
No evidence of anything awry.
You’re just racist.
Nothing thing to see here.

Oh, hold on…..maybe its one in ten.
Hay! That’s some straw.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Haha. David’s been proven right.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

There must be quite many of such INDIVIDUALS across the BC otherwise ratio between house prices and the money that those corrupted scumbags are able to amount in such short period of time wouldn’t be possible. But on the other hand, everyone seems to be content with the 5-star sanctuary we enabled for them to shelter ill-gotten gains and atone for their sins.

““The accusations against Zhang are grave – she is accused of embezzling about 350 million yuan (C$69 million), in a real estate scam that reportedly left hundreds of impoverished farm workers in appalling conditions.”

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/1995249/chinese-corruption-prosecutors-seek-death-penalty#

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

If Mayor Robertson or the ladies daughter profited, they should be extradited.

Hopefully this woman gets the death penalty. This charade has gone on long enough.

patriotz
Member

The real charade is Xi’s Stalinist purge which is masquerading as an “anti-corruption” campaign. I don’t know what Zhang’s actual offenses are, if any, but I know why she’s being charged.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Robertson should be looked into for corruption.

patriotz
Member

You think he hasn’t been? Don’t you think if there was anything to charge him with he’d be charged already? Happened to Glen Clark who had a lot more political clout at the time.

oops we did it again
Guest
oops we did it again

The data shows the average amount spent by Canadian buyers in Vancouver was $911,425, while the average spent by foreigners was $946,945. It would appear that we have made a very worthwhile contribution to this gasbag. Sentiment/fear will be the driver for this long ride down.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

…how many of these foreigners were French, British, American, Australian etc….besides Mainland Chinese? Now THAT would make for an interesting study.

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

dumbass, 95% of foreign buyers were Chinese.

specuskeptic
Member

Where’s the local 50 cent party folk? Funds dry up? LOL Paper tigers….

specuskeptic
Member

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/twitter-sports-streaming-1.3694452

“Is Rennie right? Will a 15 per cent foreign national house tax make Metro Vancouver affordable again?

No chance. It will only slow down the bleeding caused by not taking action sooner at best.”

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Who cares?

specuskeptic
Member
Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

So what happens next week?

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

10%?

wxyz
Guest
wxyz

The proportion of foreign buyers was higher in the suburbs of Burnaby and Richmond, with 18 per cent of homes in both of those cities sold to foreigners.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-stats-show-1-in-10-home-sales-in-vancouver-region-went-to-foreign-buyers/article31121420/

18% in Burnaby

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well? Wouldn’t YOU buy further out of the city if it was a little “cheaper”?

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

Are you paying your taxes? Time to get your IP and forward your address to the CRA.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“foreign buyers” not even foreign money behind potentially domestic buyers, but foreign buyers.

OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Canadian banks ordered to undergo mortgage stress tests.The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has imposed more stringent criteria for stress tests, the hypothetical scenarios used to measure the impact of downturns in areas that affect banks, such as housing, employment and economic activity. The lenders will now be required to evaluate how they would be affected by a decline at least 50 per cent in house values for Greater Vancouver and at least 40 per cent for the Greater Toronto Area.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/canadian-banks-ordered-to-undergo-mortgage-stress-tests/article31125822/?reqid=e1281892-1f6b-4d69-92e8-77b9293616f1

OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

OSFI does not apply to Canada’s six biggest banks and HSBC. The stress test applies to the rest of the country’s deposit-taking institutions.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Small wonder. All the banks have their asses FULLY covered by the CMHC which has been, due to this, a main driver of this bubble. After all, the banks have no real sin in the game; why WOULDN’T they lend money to anyone who can fog a mirror?

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

This could get crazy, fast and big time.

paulb
Member

2 days! Sorry on vacation.

New
531
Sold
255

TI:9093

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Hmm… only 48% S/LR per diem. Looking good!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You know what? When this thing is “bust history” all the naysyers will go from calling us “Cassandras whose prophecies never came true” to saying, “Well, of course. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!”

MarKoz
Member

“Normal” S/LR is 20%. Nothing in 48% signals impending doom (though it is less than the bonkers 80% earlier in the year).

MarKoz
Member

“Normal” S/LR is 20%. Nothing in 48% signals impending doom (though it is less than the bonkers 80% earlier in the year).

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

dumbass, the new listings are what was listed 1-2 days ago. The sold are from 5-10 days ago. Wait 1 week and the sales will come to a halt.

Ooooh Weeee
Guest
Ooooh Weeee

10000+ listing by the end of August. Yes or no?

Johnson
Guest
Johnson

No. But sales will be down.

Crackdown on tax cheats, rental suites to increase because people are going to start reporting this to the CRA. Starting with BoomBust

rockerguy
Member
rockerguy

Inventory is growing by about 500 per month since July 1. Ordinarily at this time of year, inventory is flat or shrinking. Who knows where it’s going from here – it is unprecedented.

Canadian
Guest

Paul, thanks for nos. How is surrey looking so far this month, if you don’t mind.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

The drivers of this market, and all other asset markets, meet every six weeks in Basel, Switzerland. They have double the worlds money supply over the last 10-15 years.

It’s not that the value of homes has increased, it’s that the value of money has decreased. Whether that money is held in the hand of a foreign buyer, or an overextended local – it is worth many times less than in the past relative to assets – forcing everyone to pay more.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/central-bankers-policy-rules-economics-1.3680801

Most of the population probably cannot understand the magnitude of this change nor the reasons behind it. Pittis gets it.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Incomes are the real value of money and our incomes have not increased along with the money supply. Why? Because the increased money supply has not been distributed equitably or evenly into the economy. By attempting to distribute money with low interest rates, all the central banks have done is caused a massively increased debt ratio of earnings to borrowings (available credit) for consumers who want to take advantage of the increased money supply. This is why bubbles form and it is ultimately of no benefit to anyone except the bankers. See a pattern here?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Exactly. If you can’t spend it, it’s not wealth.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

Which means relative to assets, our incomes have decreased. Of course, if you put your money into assets before The Great Money Expansion, you’re doing quiet well.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Almost. If you put money into assets, then sold them, you are doing quite well. If you left them there, nobody knows how well you are doing, yet.

victoria
Member
victoria

This worked out well….

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoVdPeMUkAEgLqO.jpg

Follow

Mike Klassen
‏@MikeKlassen
Email from #Vancouver realtor advises clients on how to beat new 15% foreign purchaser tax thru assignment. #VanRE
Follow

Mike Klassen
‏@MikeKlassen

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

The guy needs a spell checker; “citizen’s” should be “citizens”.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

There must be some legislation that deals with criminals who encourage and advise public on actions that would be fraudulent and result in tax evasion. This is at the level of public enemies kinds of crimes, stealing from the Canadian people for personal benefit. Gangster should be prosecuted and severely punished.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Holy crap, did you see Vancouver-Langara MLA throw Krusty under the bus in Mike Klassens Twitter feed??? She acknowledges the massive loophole that is in the new tax.
I’m sure Rennie had a role in crafting this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrMoiraStilwell/status/758120102868897792

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Holy Moly. That realtor appears to have no integrity or respect for his fellow Canadians whatsoever. Could he think he was doing his duty by his clients and so acting ethically? No, I don’t think so.. I think he’s acting greedily, not from a duty of care. This email explaining this little trick came so fast after the law was passed — he cannot fail to be cognizant of the concerns that have given rise to to the new law. He’s going in the face of the intent and spirit of the law. This law is meant to apply exactly to the people whom he is advising to go around it. What a jerk.

Peterson
Guest
Peterson

He’s advising people who have already purchased homes that close after August 2 that suddenly have an additional 15% tax added to the price out of nowhere. It’s his duty to try to find solutions for his clients. I have no idea whether he’s doing anything shady but it’s not fair to draw that conclusion from that e-mail.

patriotz
Member

Actually a pre-sale is not a purchase, but a commitment to a future purchase. Assigning this purchase to someone else is not in any way evading the tax. I wonder if he read my post on a previous thread:

http://vancouvercondo.info/2016/07/friday-free-for-all-july-22nd-2016.html#comment-276346

YVR
Guest
YVR

Correct. At some point the pre-sale turns into a purchase and the tax must be paid. This is a realtor fishing for business. Most foreigners do not have a proxy here they can trust with potentially millions otherwise they would have used them already. Plus then the proxy is responsible for income or capital gains taxes which could be more than the 15%. Foreigners who are holding pre-sales will just sell prior to completion.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Where have you been over the past 15 years. The city didn’t get sold out ethically.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

A Realtor acting unethically?

Next you’ll say that Lance Armstrong is a cheater and Bill Cosby is a pervert.

I’ll never believe you!

victoria
Member
victoria

This is from the rain forest whisperer.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

That was fast. Nice that Klassy Mike is onto it tho. Good on him.

MarKoz
Member
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

David Eby clowns Christy Clark, Rich Coleman & Mike DE Jong on their RE flip flop in a epic speech .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeDl_4R06GA

OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
patriotz
Member

Ontario considers following B.C. on taxing foreign real estate investors

Unlike its BC counterpart, the Ontario NDP has been largely silent on RE issues. But if you want to claim Wynne is just after the money, I won’t argue. 🙂 Recently Ontario’s Liberal government brought in transparency legislation on RE sales.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/new-rules-aim-to-shed-light-on-real-estate-bidding-process/article24915665/

YVR
Guest
YVR

Once the Ontario government sees the revenue this brings in they will implement this thing too. Taxing those who can’t vote is a no brainier.

patriotz
Member
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

well this spells things out pretty clearly. when all is said and done (and the election is over) we will find out that this had zero effect on the market in the eyes of the average joes. right now, it appears she is taking action. many naive folks out there will eat it up just like scrubbed, polished and spun msm news. the cynic in me thinks the tax will result in over heated mkts in tax free zones, which was possibly the intent in the first place. now every homeowner province wide could be a lottery winner too and steadfast ndp’ers on the island and elsewhere will maybe be less willing to turf her of out office after the money starts rolling in.

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

The June-July data was for registrations on properties, not purchases. The actual sales would have happened in the Feb-April period, the peak buying season. — Garth

Does anyone know what this actually means? And how the data is collected? FFS why is something so simple, more complicated. But have to say those foreign purchase numbers are pretty big. Although I maintain the Chinese buyers’ “cash in hand” is likely debt borrowed from China. Their debt to income numbers are frightening. Someone is borrowing for something. These cases popping up in the news that they are skipping out on debts show pretty slack underwriting practices. I am not saying it’s everyone but when something is too good to be true, it usually, almost always, is.

http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China’s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.

patriotz
Member

“Does anyone know what this actually means?”

It means the stats are from closings, when Land Titles changes the name of the owner, not sales (in RE board terms), which is when an offer is accepted . I think the closing period assumed is a bit long but the principle is correct.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s economy is hostage to the housing bubble”, Maclean’s
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-economy-is-hostage-to-the-housing-bubble-2/

“Ultimately B.C.’s new tax will likely fail to cool the overheated market for the same reason every other effort to date—tighter mortgage lending standards, larger down-payment requirements, jawboning bordering on pleading from the Bank of Canada—has failed. The world is awash in cheap debt, and whether we’re talking about wealthy foreigners or local residents desperate not to be shut out of the market, the siren call of fast-rising house prices is too powerful to ignore. Until that changes, Canada’s economy will continue to be captive to the bubble.”

YVR
Guest
YVR

At some point the straw breaks the camels back. This is the biggest straw straw so far by a long shot. Plus no waiting period where sales spike to beat the new measure. Then the fact the BC government is now reporting foreign purchases every month along with the ability to adjust the tax up and add in other jurisdictions if foreigners start to increase purchases it is pretty much a certainty this will correct the market to some degree. That is clearly the goal of the government with the election coming. The question is once the decline starts can the government stop it until it completely deflates? History says no.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
imho the sudden parabolic surge in buying (even in areas that were prev very quiet) over the last few months is not a coincidence. i am certain a number of connected individuals knew this announcement was coming and tipped off all their friends, family and associates. i think it is presumptuous to think this new tax will drive prices downs in a meaningful way. as i have said, very few will end up paying this tax and without a doubt there are rooms of bright people working around the clock on ways to circumvent the new rules. it remains to be seen how or even if the level of enforcement will be ramped up going forward. at best i am expecting a quieter sideways market until there is more clarity. if there is even the slightest bit of turbulance you… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Well they ain’t gonna repatriate their money back to China are they? Not unless they and their money go back in handcuffs.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

The straw is in the global central banking system. Watch out. Lower for longer is their mantra. Look forward to seeing the panic selling when the market hits a measly 14K of inventory. Once that’s over the way around the law will be firmly established and word will spread that YVR is open for spekkers again . I’ve got my popcorn. I’m watching you bears declare victory, again.

patriotz
Member

“Ultimately B.C.’s new tax will likely fail to cool the overheated market for the same reason every other effort to date”

They are right up this point, but wrong about the reason. The reason is that they are not actually trying to cool the market. Governments can bring prices down regardless of cheap credit, but they are not willing to take the measures required.

Many Franks
Member

I agree that the BC libs are trying their best to avoid depreciation while appearing to take decisive action. The thing that’s caught my interest is the sheer volume of simultaneous changes by different levels of government. Each of these would probably be ineffectual but collectively they may have a technical impact and certainly a psychological one.

If government incompetence was a hallmark of this thing all the way up, I don’t see why that shouldn’t continue on the way down, if we do finally get our correction.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

VERY good points.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the cdn housing mkt is too big to fail now. the masses are long RE up the ying-ying and will stampede the gates in ottawa, victoria and elsewhere if politicians continue to meddle with their retirement nest eggs

specuskeptic
Member

2008 was not that long ago. The stampede down south did not prevent or alleviate much of the sting from that crash. Gov’t did not/could not stop it. I haven’t seen any reason not to believe the same will be true up here.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the difference is that govt officials are operating with a different mindset now and are doing everything in the power to prevent another 2008. you watch, the moment there is even the slightest hiccup, the boys and girls in ottawa will come running to save the banks and keep the housing mkt propped up. if a widespread housing crash was to occur (of the variety that the banks are supposedly stress testing for) then its game over for the cdn economy and the retirement prospects for an entire generation (or two) who will wind up completely wiped out of all/much of their equity and life savings. to prevent such an event from occurring each and every option will be considered, even the most ridiculous, absurd and irresponsible.

patriotz
Member

We’ve had more than a hiccup in Alberta and the feds have done nothing. I think they do care about GTA but I think they’re willing to let Vancouver crash and burn, especially now that Christy has made a move that can be blamed for falling prices.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
the feds will most certainly intervene should the big 5 feel the noose start to tighten somewhat. i honestly think the move by bc govt is mostly for optics reasons and will have little to no effect on prices. those on sidelines are dreaming if they think this will translate into a full on collapse which will allow them to get in at prices we saw 5, 10, 15 or even 20 yrs ago. the only thing that has really changed is that “speed limit” on gr van streets lowered from 300km/h to 275 and a luxury tax applied to supercars which average joes will never own in their lifetime. we’ll see if this really changes behavior of uber wealthy in due course. in the meantime few are commenting on the fact that the speed limit in tax free zones… Read more »
Slava
Guest
Slava

Keep spouting out your wishful thinking if it helps to comfort you at night.:)

specuskeptic
Member

Any measures will be temporary. The government is in more of a “can’t” than a “won’t position. The can been kicked so far down the road that walls are now appearing. (I know it’s been said/heard before, but it’s a reality IMHO)

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

not outright disagreeing with you. central bankers et al have had ample time to reset the system somewhat but didnt make the move. now that the clouds are starting to appear again the only gameplan is to keep extending the road.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

These kinds of diagnoses will help talented millenials and gen x’s and academics make the decision to leave.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Yup. The government doesn’t want to deal with millions of newly broke seniors.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“We Need to Monitor Subprime Loans in Canada: Tal”, Bloomberg TV
http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-07-26/news/tal-renting-is-becoming-a-way-to-live/

“According to the latest report from the CMHC, condo building activity in Toronto appears to be ‘well managed’ unlike the 1980s housing bubble. Yet, BOC Governor Stephen Poloz recently addressed the pace of rising home prices in Canada’s two hottest markets, Toronto and Vancouver. Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets joins Bloomberg TV Canada’s Amanda Lang to discuss the current state of the Canadian housing market, where it’s headed, and what measures need to be taken to ‘cool’ certain markets before interest rates inevitably rise.’

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

B.C. aware of 26 ‘baby houses’ as birth tourism from China booms
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-aware-of-26-baby-houses-as-birth-tourism-from-china-booms/

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Sums it up…

“John Knudsen Vincent Massey Secondary School
No shock there. The CHINESE are corrupt and they have absolutely NO RESPECT for Canada or it’s citizens. The Chinese in Richmond DO NOT EVEN PUT ENGLISH ON THEIR SIGNS, which it is suppose too. When anybody goes to another country, they are expected to ‘respect their culture, rules and laws’, so how come the Chinese are allowed to DISRESPECT Canada and it’s citizens? These Baby houses are illegal businesses, so deport those who are running them or using them and we’d all be better off.”

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