Canada, debt, economy, opinion, predictions

Canadian economy is doomed

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Do low oil prices and a real estate bubble spell trouble for the future of the Canadian economy? Jared Dillian, former Lehman Brothers trader and financial writer is predicting a continuously dropping dollar with a long drawn out housing market crisis:

Unlike the US market, the mortgage market in Canada is not securitized. This means the housing crisis in Canada won’t be quick the way it was in the US (6/2007 to 3/2009).

Dillian says a long, drawn-out “death by a thousand cuts” scenario is in the cards for the Canadian housing market. And, this economic pain will probably last years.

He also notes that nearly all mortgages in Canada are “recourse mortgages” (except in Alberta). This means in-the-hole homeowners are not as likely to walk away as they were in the US housing crisis.

Is this the time that the wolf actually shows up, or just another failed prediction of doom? Read the full article and view the video interview over at Business Insider.

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Openhousemassacare
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FIRST

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10 months 27 days ago
2.9millCrackHouse
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Ever make first on Garth’s blog?

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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No, that fucker banned for his Brexit predication fiasco

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10 months 27 days ago
patriotz
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Mortgages are non-recourse in only a fraction of US states. Even in non-recourse states, there are limitations – for example in California it applies only to the original loan and not subsequent refinancing, 2nd, or HELOC. And two of the biggest bust states, Nevada and Florida, are recourse. Didn’t keep people from walking – if you can’t pay, you can’t pay.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Quit playing these guys Patriotz. Hahaha

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10 months 27 days ago
2.9millCrackHouse
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Was in fraser heights this weekend. Tonnes of for sale signs and open houses, but apparently not a lot is moving. Prices are now at $1 million for the average house whereas a few years ago you could get a decent house for $500k-$600k.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Prices have not moved at all south of the Fraser. But yeah, a decent sfd in Surrey now $1 Million. Last year one could be had for $675000. The year before $550,000.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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So even people moving out of Vancouver proper because of high rents aren’t going to be able to buy a detached in Surrey and commute. Those days are sadly gone.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Abbotsford is the place that really went nuts. A detached that went for $375,000 last year is pushing $600,000.

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10 months 27 days ago
Funkey monkey
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What economy do we have to support this? Or is it just phantom money as you say?

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Intergenerational families:

Grandparents:$2500/per month OAS and GIS

2-3 kids: $1000-$1500/month

Parents work cash to maximize benefits.

Total monthly: $7-8000 net.

Plus they have overseas assets.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Plus suite rents that are never delckared.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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And one more point, word has been out for a while regarding T2 and MacCallums plan to flood Canada with new people

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10 months 27 days ago
Many Franks
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Realtor’s licence suspended for ties to unlicensed Chinese brokerage

Court documents showed Richmond realtor Alban Wang sold 17 homes across Metro Vancouver through the Shanghai-based website vanfun.com, paying more than $200,000 of his commission sales to the site’s operator for client referrals.

The website vanfun.com takes MLS listings reserved for realtors and posts them online for their clients to view up to 48 hours before the general public can see them.

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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this all winds up being a big catch-22 in many ways. continued lacklustre or weakening economic performance means current stimulus remains in place for longer or even gets ratcheted up further (much like what has happened in japan). this will at the very least keep a floor maintained under the housing mkt and prolong the pain and suffering for those that are already having trouble treading water. not a fix or a solution long term and only delays the inevitable for many. as the cdn peso drifts back to sub-65 cents there will be at least a handful of intl buyers willing to step in and scoop up mid to higher end name brand properties in selected areas on the cheap while local buyers sit on the sidelines and continue to nurse wounds which never seem to heal from years… Read more »
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Ulsterman
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I returned to Canada yesterday after a 35-day road trip of the SW USA and Baja Mexico. Being a disgruntled housing bear naturally everywhere in the US i went i took note of local house prices. As we all know, almost everywhere other than the super cities had reasonable housing. Even crazy places like San Francisco have houses 45-60 mins away from the downtown in the 350-550k range. Try that in Port Moody/Coquitlam/ Port Coquitlam. Look at the abundance of highly paid jobs are available in the Bay area. Another place i stayed was Chula Vista, about 12k south of that hole known as San Diego. It took about 10 mins on the I5 to be in downtown SD. Chula Vista houses have gone up 50% since 2010, but a family can still own a house for US$300-400k. They consider… Read more »
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kim
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There’s a couple more reasons for lower housing prices in the Bay Area. First is, many of the cheaper places (Richmond, Fremont) are considered high crime areas. I would not want to live there. Whereas in the LM, even in a place like Surrey, the murder rate is comparable to SF the city. Second, taxes are a lot higher. A 1 million dollar property’s taxes would be 10K a year. Here, even on a 2 million dollar property here, you only pay about 5-6 k a year.

Rents are actually a lot higher there than here.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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I agree Ulster. I was in Fairfield -Dixon-Davis area in April. Reasonable housing prices.

Difference in Canada is you can easily immigrate your entire extended family. Not the case in USA.

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10 months 27 days ago
HAMster
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We are in a massive bubble. Traveling somewhere else just illustrates that point all the better. At least our bubble is now bursting.

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10 months 27 days ago
Billybonger
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Was in Surrey recently a reasonably solipsisticated fellow was talking about a deal that fell through to a foreign buyer…he is trying to rescue it by agreeing to pay half the tax…sign of things to come?

Until listings surge, I think prices stay reasonably firm although continuing to weaken.

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10 months 27 days ago
Newcomer
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I would say that this is, in a certain sense, the best case scenario. It assumes that the US recovery continues and Canada resets. Other possibilities are that Canadain consumers continue to do the job of boosting money supply by taking on debt, further deforming resource allocation, or that global deflation crushes everyone. Who knows? Not me.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Canada is <0.5% of world population. Lower mainland less than 0.035% They want to make it into a 'world' resort city. Obviously there will be housing casualties who don't matter in the big picture.

Compare that with 10% of the world who is starving at this moment.

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10 months 27 days ago
tim
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You keep pushing this. But about 80% of the immigration is from China, and they are none too stable.

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10 months 27 days ago
S.Bby
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Average consumer is maxed out and can’t take on anymore debt.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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With all due respect, I disagree. My current landlord has 4 houses he bought while owning and driving a taxi plate for which he paid peanuts.

His family structure is 2 grandparents, the couple and their 2 kids and a suite I’m renting until my house gets built. Here’s their income:

His: $5000 cash plus $1500 lease for 12 hours that other driver pays. Total is $6500.

Wife: works part time as a health assistant; $1500

Kids: max out on benefits: $1100

Grandparents : $2500 GIS and OAS

Suite rent :$1000

Total not including their farm income overseas AND no including rent from their other 3 houses is $ $12600!!

So no, these are the types of families I’m surrounded by. Your surrounded by Caucasian types

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10 months 27 days ago
tim
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Could just as well claim that the typical “caucasian type” has the guy making $90k a year as a software developer, with his wife making $60k as teacher, total 12.5k per month, etc etc.

The real question is, could your landlord have bought those 4 houses in the current market?

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HAMster
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BS. You seem to know too much about your landlord’s personal finances. And you always have the “foreign income” angle on the go.

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10 months 27 days ago
Patiently Waiting
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Yeah. Why the heck would a landlord tell a tenant anything about his personal finances? If mine did, I’d assume he was either lying or losing his mind.

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10 months 27 days ago
tim
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“assume he was either lying or losing his mind.”

Yep, that’s a safe assumption with every small-time landlord I’ve ever had. But you missed drunk, and entitled asswipe trust funder.

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Patiently Waiting
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Yep, my last small-time landlord was a total drunk who smoked big fat cigars. I never saw him driving because I suspect he was always over .08

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10 months 27 days ago
Combat roach
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A landlord is his uncle and family talk about the money.

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Oracle
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Landlord is my dad

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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I also drive a taxi *honk honk motha fukkkaaa”

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10 months 27 days ago
Patiently Waiting
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I guess it’s a cultural thing. I have no idea how much my aunts/uncles/cousins make and wouldn’t dare ask such intrusive questions.

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HAMster
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Taxi plates go for $800K is that peanuts?

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10 months 27 days ago
Whistler or Bust?
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In 5 years $0

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10 months 27 days ago
HAMster
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Yup.

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10 months 27 days ago
renters rule
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I call bullshit. Taxi licenses, like commercial fishing licenses can be used as collateral for a mortgage. Peanuts my ass — more like hundreds of thousands of dollars. This post is fiction.

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10 months 27 days ago
yvr2zrh
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I think the comment is that because of services such as Uber which threaten the Taxi monopoly (and the value of their licenses) the likely long-term value is zero.

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Oncebittwiceshy
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Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) results
Date # Of
Sales Avg
List
Price Avg
Sale
Price Avg
Diff$ Avg
Diff% Avg
DOM
2016-08-26 86 $845,367 $816,896 $28,471 3.37 23
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) results
Date # Of
Sales Avg
List
Price Avg
Sale
Price Avg
Diff$ Avg
Diff% Avg
DOM
2016-08-26 61 $652,093 $649,564 $2,528 0.39 21
Results for Both Boards
Date # Of
Sales Avg
List
Price Avg
Sale
Price Avg
Diff$ Avg
Diff% Avg
DOM
2016-08-26 147 $765,165 $747,459 $17,706 2.31 22

I don’t know, Oracle, Robchipman.net has the results for both the REBGV and the FVREB and if the avg. sell price in the Fraser Valley is $649,564 it would be hard to reconcile Million Dollar homes in the armpit of the Fraser Valley. A quick check on Realtor.ca shows well over a 1000 homes listed in Surrey between $500,000. and $1,000,000.

Perhaps someone could provide the sales averages for Slurrey.

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10 months 27 days ago
HAMster
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Oracle is a full-of-shit real estate pumper who can’t admit he just made a bad call on the market by buying at the peak. You bet both sales and prices are down south of the Fraser and they will continue to drop for years. Lots of Surrey and North Delta houses for sale in the $600-800k range.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Is that not affordable enough for you?? That only like $440,000 USD. What’s the fuss about then?

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Oracle
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Ok. You are right. I’ll leave it at that.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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And oh yeah, foreign buyers represent 5% of the market. Will have no effect. :S

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10 months 27 days ago
BubbleTea
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Canada’s housing market nears ‘extreme bubble,’ warns ex-Lehman Brothers trader
http://globalnews.ca/news/2909453/canadas-housing-market-nears-extreme-bubble-warns-ex-lehman-brothers-trader/
Guess LB should know about housing bubble first hand.

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10 months 27 days ago
Newcomer
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What the kind of question is, “Is Canada’s red-hot housing market really approaching a bubble?” Approaching? Like, hey be careful, if house prices triple again they might be overvalued.

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10 months 27 days ago
Combat roach
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They (media) have to be careful to not to hurt feelings and cause an emotional pain. It is like discussing religion and sexual orientation. The maximum of political correctness must be applied to the sacral RE topic.

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10 months 27 days ago
paulb
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New
149

Sold
104
.
TI:9301

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Lurker
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Are homes being delisted? Why would inventory be going down?

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10 months 27 days ago
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
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LOTS of houses being delisted.

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10 months 27 days ago
Billybonger
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I thought listings would be careening higher.

Not yet.

If they don’t in first half of sept then perhaps false alarm. If they do, then a totally different story.

Right now, interesting but the jury is still out.

Thanks paulb

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Newcomer
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I don’t expect any major movement until the spring.

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10 months 27 days ago
paulb
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Market is unsure. Sept will be huge. Second half of August compared with first is much better for sales.

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10 months 27 days ago
Best place on meth
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You’ll get your answer in a week.

Nothing to see in late August, ever.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Just be aware guys that half my posts are from imposters. I’ll become a member and then only post from there.

I’m thinking HAMster is the guilty party here.

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HAMster
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Yes, if I poke holes in your posts then it must be me.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Oracle
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You’re always fucking around because you have nothing better to do. Pissed off because things are not going your way or jealous to see others succeed. Ban this idiot.

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10 months 27 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Probably Romeo Jordan.

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10 months 27 days ago
HAMster
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Yes, we must ban any person who does not agree with my posts.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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It is you posting as me. Admin can confirm.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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Oracle
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This is not me.

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10 months 27 days ago
Whistler or Bust?
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Whistler or Bust?
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Is there any real evidence that prices have dropped at all? I know sales have dropped but people are saying $100K here and 20% there. I have seen no real evidence that prices have dropped even 1%.

If anyone has any evidence please provide it.

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10 months 27 days ago
Ktown
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Have you seen any evidence that it has stayed the same or increased?? I would consider benchmark prices very subjective aswell. The real estate board could very easily pick a “benchmark” sfh that sold high vs averaging many over the month. Next month will be very tell tale. With the media finally realising the bubble has burst i think you will see a huge increase in listings and similar sales as right now. The sales will continue but will be lowball offers.

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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imho it will be a waste of time looking at any of the data over the next few months (from either a bullish or bearish pespective). come spring time we will get a much better reading.

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10 months 27 days ago
Ktown
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Average sale price for today was down -3.47% compared to list price on the rebgv listings.

Im sure you can remember a few months ago when houses were selling for 4-7% above ask on average.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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That’s cause detached aren’t selling and more than that are being listed. Let’s see how many up votes this gets and if you guys get it.

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10 months 27 days ago
Kim
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I have been following some SFH and condos. One listing was pulled after not selling at ask. Another SFH had a price cut of 10% and still not selling. Of course ask prices may be out of whack but I can tell you we are not getting bidding wars. Prices won’t fall until there is a need to liquidate. I dont see that happening as long as rates remain low (or until the US fed raises rates to a more normal number like 5%).

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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USA is heading into a recession part of the cycle soon.

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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They haven’t.

Inventory stays low.

Another month and prices will start to go up again.

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10 months 27 days ago
Best place on meth
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And if they don’t, will you actually leave this time?

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10 months 27 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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Was that to Whistler or Bust?

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10 months 27 days ago
vangrl
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“As per Jason Billingsley than man behind the infamous Zolo stats, he discovered that 50% of sales take longer than 10 days to report to the Real Estate Board. So although a sale may have been signed and accepted on August 15, numbers show that 50% of those sales won’t be reported until upwards of August 25. Most likely due to lazy Realtors, understaffed offices, or Realtors leaving listings active to attract more buyer leads for their own business.”

Could the increase in sales in the 2nd half of August be a reflection of the rushed sales to get in before the tax starting on Aug 1st?

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10 months 27 days ago
yvr2zrh
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I am thinking this is the case too. I actually want to see if REBGV can make some comment in their release this month to indicate how many of the sales purportedly to be August sales are actually just the normal late reporting of July sales. Normally it’s not that important but because of the regulatory change, I think it is important to make a comment as to how many transactions occurred after August. It is true, however, that there is not urgency to report a sale and I can see that keeping a listing active for something that is actually sold allows a realtor (perhaps with no other listings) to at least keep their phone ringing.

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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CMHC-insured mortgage arrears in Alberta increase by more than 50 per cent
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/calgary-and-edmonton/cmhc-insured-mortgage-arrears-in-alberta-increase-by-more-than-50-per-cent/article31595727

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10 months 27 days ago
Oracle
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You guys don’t make sense.

First you ridicule me when I say that it’s foreign money and immigrants that is pumping up housing.

THEN you look for stats to reflect a crash after the 15% tax and wonder why things aren’t crashing price wise.

Make up your damn minds. You guys are so lost.

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10 months 27 days ago
Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Oracle, don’t be a moron.

You should know by now that sales crash first and prices crash later.

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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Rich mainland Chinese girl in the US flaunts her wealth on social media
http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/families/article/2008384/rich-mainland-girl-us-flaunts-her-wealth-social-media

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10 months 27 days ago
Best place on meth
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“In 2012, mainland student Yichun Xu made headlines after crashing his Mercedes-Benz into another car in Des Moines, Iowa, killing a woman and injuring four others. He had no international driving licence and tried to bribe an officer on the scene. He was released on bail of US$2 million, paid by his mother.”

How come trigger-happy US cops don’t kill people like this?

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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Openhousemassacare
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23-year-old left Beijing at the age of 17 to attend high school in the US, she had more than 20 boyfriends.

She lives in a seaside condominium bought by her parents for $1Million and receives monthly pocket money of $40,000.

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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How people are exploiting loopholes to snap up homes in top Chinese cities as prices skyrocket
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2010541/how-people-are-exploiting-loopholes-snap-homes-top-chinese-cities

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10 months 27 days ago
Best place on meth
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A third world country with first word real estate prices.

I love it!

Keep on buying you fucking chinese morons!!

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10 months 27 days ago
Its_the_ALR_stupid
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Its_the_ALR_stupid
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The weird thing is that all those apartments in China are leasehold, which means they will have to be given back to the government in about 60 years. The guy in the article has 2 apartments worth about ten million dollars. Think about that for a second.

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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Openhousemassacare
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No wonder these Gong Fei motherfuckers want to buy a house in Australia, Canada and in USA.

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10 months 27 days ago
Combat roach
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And yet our government works hard to bring more of that garbage in Canada.

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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Openhousemassacare
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Christy Cunt spend $1,000,000 taxpayers dime for photography services since she became premier.

http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/mike-smyth-premier-clark-has-spent-nearly-1-million-on-photography

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10 months 27 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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A city completely gone over to tourism so that the social fabric is being ripped apart.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/opinion/can-we-save-venice-before-its-too-late.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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While people in Vancouver struggle to find a decent rental living space, Herpes Justin brings another 1,500 Syrian refugees who are going be housed in $150 – $200 a night hotel rooms while they will given permanent Housing.

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10 months 27 days ago
Openhousemassacare
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http://www.inews880.com/syn/112/217169/b-c-officials-are-better-prepared-for-next-intake-of-1500-syrian-refugees

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10 months 27 days ago
Bull! X 3
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I CBC raising rates 10% over two years due to more accidents.

Chinese drivers’ licences now accepted by B.C. RCMP (2014)

Coincidence?

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10 months 27 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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What I wish ICBC would tell drivers who learned how to drive in China: (1) When you have the green light, you have the right of way. Take the right of way, do not stop. (2) Do not treat city streets as highways. That means do not speed, and if there are two lanes do not treat the left hand lane as a passing lane in the same way you would treat the left hand lane on a highway as a passing lane. In other words, the left hand lane on a city street is not a lane to speed up on. It is a lane to go around slowed or stopped traffic on by driving the normal relatively slow city street speed. (3) Do not use your cell phone while driving. This also goes for Alberta and Washington drivers.… Read more »
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10 months 27 days ago
Combat roach
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Utopia, ICBC would rather get pigs to follow those rules sooner…

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10 months 27 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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Why do they have to raise everyone’s rates? Why can’t they raise the rates only of those who are statistically more likely to have an accident?

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10 months 27 days ago
bullwhip29
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premiums are also linked to replacement value of vehicle (which in richmond averages $50k at a very minimum). must cost icbc a fortune to pay out both legit and bogus claims on all those supercars

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10 months 26 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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Oh wow. I hadn’t thought about that. The car insurance industry developed its mathematical modeling against the background a reality where the worst drivers had the lowest value cars. (Inexperienced drivers– kids– with second hand cars, fixed up “classics”, 57 chevys with mag wheels). Now the worst drivers have the highest value cars. That must certainly require a change in the model they use. Raising everyone’s rates is not the same as completely revamping the model, which seems required if we are going to continue hosting these 1%ers.

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10 months 26 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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The worst drivers I’ve seen are generally behind the wheel of a truck. And they’re not Chinese.

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10 months 27 days ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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I completely agree. But overly aggressive white truck drivers were baked in to the stats.

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10 months 26 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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Yeah that category accounted for in the stats.

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10 months 26 days ago
bullwhip29
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they drive their trucks just like caucasian shoppers at costco use their carts like battering rams to clear out all the mooches crowding around the free food sample tables located at the ends of every aisle. on the road they drive with a major chip on their shoulders and assume every asian driver falls into one of two categories (1) young, reckless a-holes driving fancy cars like race car drivers or (2) weak, timid, confused drivers who probably didnt pass their driver’s tests and havent got even the faintest clue what side of the road they are supposed to be on

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10 months 26 days ago
HAMster
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A #1 rear ended me last week.

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10 months 26 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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My numbers 7, 8 and 11 also apply to people driving spiffed up trucks from points east and I should have mentioned that category.

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10 months 26 days ago
bullwhip29
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oh look, blame higher prices on HAM… 😉

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10 months 26 days ago
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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That’s because it’s hot. And because it’s money.

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10 months 26 days ago
southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Canadians’ confidence in real estate juggernaut starting to wobble, poll finds”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/surging-bets-on-canadian-home-price-decline-dent-consumer-confidence

“Canadians may finally be getting skittish about real estate.”

“The share of survey respondents who expect a decline in local housing prices jumped by 8.5 percentage points, the most since weekly polling began three years ago for the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. The increase to 20.5 per cent from 12 per cent dragged the broader sentiment index down from 2016 highs.”

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10 months 27 days ago
southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“Vancouver Real Estate Bubble Has Burst and Home Owners Are Panic Selling”, Canadian Investor
http://canadianinvestor.com/2016/08/29/vancouver-real-estate-bubble-has-burst-and-home-owners-are-panic-selling/

“Greater Vancouver home sales have fallen 85% in the first half of August to a mere 87, down from 597 homes over the same time last year. Meanwhile, Richmond was down 96%, Vancouver West down 94% and the North Shore’s West Vancouver down 90%.

Although the Johnny come lately are still listing homes to cash in on the capital gains, the buyers have dried up, thanks in part to the 15% tax the B.C. government introduced on property transfer’s for foreign nationals buying real estate. The descent in housing sales is being perpetuated by China’s State regulated media which is warning Chinese buyers of the dangers of owning Canadian real estate.”

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10 months 27 days ago
Newcomer
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“The descent in housing sales is being perpetuated by China’s State regulated media which is warning Chinese buyers of the dangers of owning Canadian real estate.” Interesting claim but cui bono?

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10 months 27 days ago
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