Canada, debt, economy, opinion, predictions

Canadian economy is doomed

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Do low oil prices and a real estate bubble spell trouble for the future of the Canadian economy? Jared Dillian, former Lehman Brothers trader and financial writer is predicting a continuously dropping dollar with a long drawn out housing market crisis:

Unlike the US market, the mortgage market in Canada is not securitized. This means the housing crisis in Canada won’t be quick the way it was in the US (6/2007 to 3/2009).

Dillian says a long, drawn-out “death by a thousand cuts” scenario is in the cards for the Canadian housing market. And, this economic pain will probably last years.

He also notes that nearly all mortgages in Canada are “recourse mortgages” (except in Alberta). This means in-the-hole homeowners are not as likely to walk away as they were in the US housing crisis.

Is this the time that the wolf actually shows up, or just another failed prediction of doom? Read the full article and view the video interview over at Business Insider.

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Super Rich Chinese Houses owner

We heard such idiotic statement from 2002;he completely ignored China has changed the ball game .

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bullwhip29

NY Times: Chinese-Canadians Fear China’s Rising Clout Is Muzzling Them
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/world/americas/chinese-canadians-china-speech.html

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bullwhip29

Realty Watch program helps find missing elderly person
http://www.remonline.com/realty-watch-program-helps-find-missing-elderly-person/

Realty Watch is operated by the Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Chilliwack and District real estate boards. Realtors observe and report to police any suspicious activity that they may happen upon in their day-to-day business

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HAMster

Even if the suspicious activity involves another realtor?

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bullwhip29

Canadian home prices to rise sharply on cheap money, speculation
http://globalnews.ca/news/2911454/canadian-home-prices-to-rise-sharply-on-cheap-money-speculation/

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Billybonger

I hear from west ban folk that listings are sitting and no action at open houses and realtors saying that the mkt is completely dead/frozen.

All anecdotal of course.

Wonder if a bunch of house speculators will get nervous in sept and start hammering the bid.

Only time shall tell.

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Oncebittwiceshy

bullwhip2955 minutes 39 seconds ago if anyone has verifiable proof of post Aug 2 purchases of homes at the sorts of discounts the msm is touting (ie. 20, 30+% off) vs comparable SALES (not % off fantasy asking prices) of same/similar properties earlier in the year. then please post detail bullwhip, you are, unfortunately, going to learn the same lesson as the bears did when this market was being driven upwards and beyond. This is not a normal market, it is being driven by the media and the more the momentum the more the fear. Ironically both ways. What the “brilliant” realtors are doing right now is advising clients not to list into an uncertain market. Wait for September. You can imagine the problem, come September, when a number of listings are added to a market where the “gullible” public… Read more »

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bullwhip29

it will be sept in a couple of days, so we will see. the msm chumps will simply say whatever turns heads at any given moment. right now the flavor of the day is bearish. i dont think any of this matters until spring anyway. imho owners at the top end of the scale dont have to sell and are still looking for ways to move more money here. i also think that bc govt will not lift a finger with regard to actual enforcement for tax dodgers. by the time the “gullible” public figures that out the election will be over

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Combat roach

Speaking of elections… Why NDP, Eby & Co. are silent after irrelevant 15% tax went off? Affordability is even worse compared to period of 6 months ago but opposition and free-press are quiet. Did they all really expected that Christy’s tax would change things? With the current state and no further actions they are all blowing the wind into her election’s sails.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Regrouping. It’s the last few days of summer.

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bullwhip29

case in point… apparently full steam ahead at international trade center in Rmd and Michael Ching Mo Yeung still running the show.

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bullwhip29

WSJ: Chinese Cash Pours Into U.S. Real Estate
http://tinyurl.com/jga826e

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Raincity

Of course they are heading south!! No 15% tax there. They are like aliens, destroying planets ( IE: creating massive bubbles), and then moving on to the next one. Good luck USA!

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bullwhip29

China regulator will curb news that promotes ‘Western lifestyles’
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-media-idUKKCN11509L

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bullwhip29

UBC’s billion-dollar trust fund baby
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/ubcs-billion-dollar-trust-fund-baby/

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Wow. This guy giving real estate credit for what is the result of high level research and hard work of supporting teaching professors and academic planners.

“If you look back 30 years, the university has gone from I don’t know what it was, to the sixth top university in North American for a public institution,” said Robert Lee, who was appointed to the UBC Board of Governors in 1984, and subsequently founded what became UBC Properties.

“The key to UBC’s rise in rankings is its land, said Lee “

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

And I think I know why. Can you guys guess what the relationship is between real estate fortunes and UBC research?

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Kim

Billion dollar endowment for a major university is peanuts. Harvards is 40b usd. UW is 4b USD.

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bullwhip29

Vancouver sees record decline in housing affordability in first half of 2016: RBC
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-sees-record-decline-in-housing-affordability-in-first-half-of-2016-rbc

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bullwhip29

Vancouver gas stations set to disappear
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/08/29/vancouver-gas-stations-set-to-disappear

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bullwhip29

if anyone has verifiable proof of post Aug 2 purchases of homes at the sorts of discounts the msm is touting (ie. 20, 30+% off) vs comparable SALES (not % off fantasy asking prices) of same/similar properties earlier in the year. then please post details.

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UBC in Crisis Mode

A lot asking for $4 million on Van West was sold:
4583 W 15th Ave. Vancouver, BC
Who said the foreign tax affects the market?

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bullwhip29

at the end of the day there is no way to prove definitively if one was really purchasing through family member or associate who is tax exempt. i am expecting some down time for system to adjust, for new buyers to reposition money etc then it will be back to business for the most part. the average chump out there will have no way to reconcile foreign tax revenue generated or audit the many buyers who dodged the tax. imho the bc govt will not be throwing anyone in jail either. this way krusty has her cake and gets to eat it all while looking like she is on the case heading into the election. behind closed doors i am sure certain parties have been (or will soon be) made aware that new legislation will have no teeth. sometime in… Read more »

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david

Yes, the foreign tax obviously has NO effect the market.
Bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha

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Royce McCutcheon

I personally would love for this to be the unwinding, but evidence is too thin on the ground for me to believe that it’s going to happen yet. Needs higher inventory, needs much more mainstream hand-wringing, needs way more movement in prices, etc. Fact is, regardless of the drivers of the market, the bottom line is that a whole truckload of people have a vested interest in the ongoing alienation of young Vancouverites and the destruction of this community in its present form. Period. It may be that things are tanking, but that asks me to believe (at least in part) that one of the key forces that shaped this mess – the longstanding provincial government – had a “road to Tarsus” moment and decided to work against those vested interests (many of which have empowered them). That is a… Read more »

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Royce McCutcheon

Dag – meant Damascus!

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patriotz

I think that the message Christy has given to her supporters in the RE industry is that her government was at risk of losing the election and this tax is the hit they have to take for the team. Rennie has pretty much said this himself.

Make no mistake this government is a committed to continued high prices and if the tax actually results in falling prices I will expect a raft of measure to “help people buy”, i.e. support prices, next spring. But I doubt they will back off on the tax itself.

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bullwhip29

my bet is this winds up being nothing more than hot air. cheaters will not be prosecuted. krusty is corrupt cop disguised as straight cop until election is over. give it a few months and buyers will have reorganized funds. i say if you can get your hands on a decent property at the sorts of discounts being mentioned in zero hedge and what not, they buy it. slam dunk easy money imho.

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Newcomer

I think you give the provincial government far more faith than they deserve. Sure, they support high prices, but even federal governments cannot overcome market momentum on the way down. If it turns, it won’t matter what the provincial government says.

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patriotz

Oh I didn’t say they will succeed, just that they will try.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“…love for this to be the unwinding, but… a whole truckload of people have a vested interest in the ongoing alienation of young Vancouverites and the destruction of this community in its present form. Period.”

We are being choked by an evil serpent. It needs to be cut. How? Transparency. Who is profiting, and how.

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david

Here’s the thing about this “former Lehman Brothers” (or ANY ‘ex-bank’ pundit). The precise reason anyone asks their opinion is because of the business card they used to have. The guy might be a genius who just got caught in a cruel downsizing numbers game, or might have been fired for turning out to be an idiot. We don’t know. That notwithstanding… the only time you’ll ever get the honest opinion, informed or not, from anyone who works at a high-level institution is after they leave it. Until then, they are told what opinions to have, and instructed to always stroke their clients’ balls (especially governments). Their written opinions are often utter lies, and potentially fatal for anyone who acts on them. In this specific instance, this guy –whoever he is— has it just about bang on. I’ve thought exactly… Read more »

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Hyper-mega-Bull

“Former banker” is just some buy trying to get free press for his business. The way to do that today is to predict a housing collapse. Further if his prediction is correct he looks like a genius and if it isn’t no one even remembers it. The horoscope effect.

People believe him because he is telling them what they already believe. Conformation bias.

Basically, a whole lot of bearlogic.

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bullwhip29

this guy is a total flake and was just collateral damage in 08/09 not a mover or shaker at LB during crash

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david

For someone without any apparent information, you seem so sure of your assessment of him. Flakey.

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david

Guy wrote a book regaling the sociopathic actions and damaged personalities of Lehman traders, including himself.

What a flake.

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bullwhip29

glorified sour grapes story. got into market at good time, made some easy money, thought this was due to talent, life was great. then mkt collapsed along with his career in finance. obviously couldnt pick himself up and get $hit together post crash. now msm quoting him as an “expert” on cdn economy (likely because no one else will go on record to say what editor wants to hear). this strategy used by cnbc all the time.

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david

…..got into market at good time, made some easy money, thought this was due to talent, life was great. then mkt collapsed ….

Vancouver homeowners, remember Bull’s insightful words for future reference.
Excellent.

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david

Bullwhipo : Please inform us of your views on Canadian sectors that are the “economic bright lights” that are so obviously going to lead this country in wealth creation over the next couple years.

You know…being as this ex-bank dufus obviously has rocks in his head.

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david

Confirmation bias is one explanation. It sometimes gets tossed out by those looking to undermine an opinion because they have a differing one…is there a psycho-fancy term for that?

Another explanation is strong, objective merit. That possible?

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Oracle

What needs to happen now is Inventory must be maintained at these levels in September while sales continue at August levels.

The next few months are critical to the direction of the market.

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bullwhip29

i think many buyers and sellers will just take the next 6 months off

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Best place on meth

Dear chinese envoy: since you feel you have the right to tell us how to run our country, I have 3 suggestion for you as well.

1. Stay the fuck out of our business.

2. Eat shit.

3. Die

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Combat roach

Ugly woman, can see her as a top capo in the detention camp.

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BubbleTea

Reinforce the notion that it is the Mainland Chinese are buying and driving up the prices of Vancouver RE.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver Real Estate Bubble Has Burst and Home Owners Are Panic Selling”, Canadian Investor
http://canadianinvestor.com/2016/08/29/vancouver-real-estate-bubble-has-burst-and-home-owners-are-panic-selling/

“Greater Vancouver home sales have fallen 85% in the first half of August to a mere 87, down from 597 homes over the same time last year. Meanwhile, Richmond was down 96%, Vancouver West down 94% and the North Shore’s West Vancouver down 90%.

Although the Johnny come lately are still listing homes to cash in on the capital gains, the buyers have dried up, thanks in part to the 15% tax the B.C. government introduced on property transfer’s for foreign nationals buying real estate. The descent in housing sales is being perpetuated by China’s State regulated media which is warning Chinese buyers of the dangers of owning Canadian real estate.”

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Newcomer

“The descent in housing sales is being perpetuated by China’s State regulated media which is warning Chinese buyers of the dangers of owning Canadian real estate.” Interesting claim but cui bono?

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southseacompany

“Canadians’ confidence in real estate juggernaut starting to wobble, poll finds”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/surging-bets-on-canadian-home-price-decline-dent-consumer-confidence

“Canadians may finally be getting skittish about real estate.”

“The share of survey respondents who expect a decline in local housing prices jumped by 8.5 percentage points, the most since weekly polling began three years ago for the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. The increase to 20.5 per cent from 12 per cent dragged the broader sentiment index down from 2016 highs.”

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Bull! X 3

I CBC raising rates 10% over two years due to more accidents.

Chinese drivers’ licences now accepted by B.C. RCMP (2014)

Coincidence?

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

What I wish ICBC would tell drivers who learned how to drive in China: (1) When you have the green light, you have the right of way. Take the right of way, do not stop. (2) Do not treat city streets as highways. That means do not speed, and if there are two lanes do not treat the left hand lane as a passing lane in the same way you would treat the left hand lane on a highway as a passing lane. In other words, the left hand lane on a city street is not a lane to speed up on. It is a lane to go around slowed or stopped traffic on by driving the normal relatively slow city street speed. (3) Do not use your cell phone while driving. This also goes for Alberta and Washington drivers.… Read more »

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Combat roach

Utopia, ICBC would rather get pigs to follow those rules sooner…

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Why do they have to raise everyone’s rates? Why can’t they raise the rates only of those who are statistically more likely to have an accident?

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bullwhip29

premiums are also linked to replacement value of vehicle (which in richmond averages $50k at a very minimum). must cost icbc a fortune to pay out both legit and bogus claims on all those supercars

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Oh wow. I hadn’t thought about that. The car insurance industry developed its mathematical modeling against the background a reality where the worst drivers had the lowest value cars. (Inexperienced drivers– kids– with second hand cars, fixed up “classics”, 57 chevys with mag wheels). Now the worst drivers have the highest value cars. That must certainly require a change in the model they use. Raising everyone’s rates is not the same as completely revamping the model, which seems required if we are going to continue hosting these 1%ers.

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Shut It Down Already

The worst drivers I’ve seen are generally behind the wheel of a truck. And they’re not Chinese.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

I completely agree. But overly aggressive white truck drivers were baked in to the stats.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yeah that category accounted for in the stats.

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bullwhip29

they drive their trucks just like caucasian shoppers at costco use their carts like battering rams to clear out all the mooches crowding around the free food sample tables located at the ends of every aisle. on the road they drive with a major chip on their shoulders and assume every asian driver falls into one of two categories (1) young, reckless a-holes driving fancy cars like race car drivers or (2) weak, timid, confused drivers who probably didnt pass their driver’s tests and havent got even the faintest clue what side of the road they are supposed to be on

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HAMster

A #1 rear ended me last week.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

My numbers 7, 8 and 11 also apply to people driving spiffed up trucks from points east and I should have mentioned that category.

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bullwhip29

oh look, blame higher prices on HAM… 😉

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

That’s because it’s hot. And because it’s money.

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Openhousemassacare

While people in Vancouver struggle to find a decent rental living space, Herpes Justin brings another 1,500 Syrian refugees who are going be housed in $150 – $200 a night hotel rooms while they will given permanent Housing.

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Openhousemassacare

Christy Cunt spend $1,000,000 taxpayers dime for photography services since she became premier.

http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/mike-smyth-premier-clark-has-spent-nearly-1-million-on-photography

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bullwhip29

How people are exploiting loopholes to snap up homes in top Chinese cities as prices skyrocket
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2010541/how-people-are-exploiting-loopholes-snap-homes-top-chinese-cities

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Best place on meth

A third world country with first word real estate prices.

I love it!

Keep on buying you fucking chinese morons!!

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

The weird thing is that all those apartments in China are leasehold, which means they will have to be given back to the government in about 60 years. The guy in the article has 2 apartments worth about ten million dollars. Think about that for a second.

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Openhousemassacare

No wonder these Gong Fei motherfuckers want to buy a house in Australia, Canada and in USA.

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Combat roach

And yet our government works hard to bring more of that garbage in Canada.

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bullwhip29

Rich mainland Chinese girl in the US flaunts her wealth on social media
http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/families/article/2008384/rich-mainland-girl-us-flaunts-her-wealth-social-media

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Best place on meth

“In 2012, mainland student Yichun Xu made headlines after crashing his Mercedes-Benz into another car in Des Moines, Iowa, killing a woman and injuring four others. He had no international driving licence and tried to bribe an officer on the scene. He was released on bail of US$2 million, paid by his mother.”

How come trigger-happy US cops don’t kill people like this?

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Openhousemassacare

23-year-old left Beijing at the age of 17 to attend high school in the US, she had more than 20 boyfriends.

She lives in a seaside condominium bought by her parents for $1Million and receives monthly pocket money of $40,000.

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