Condo king knew buyer tax was coming (via educated guess)

The recent announcement of a 15% foreign buyer tax was a surprise to a lot of people. Even finance ministry staff were kept in the dark about the tax.

One of the few exceptions seems to have been a very successful local condo marketer who also happens to be the chief fundraiser for the liberal government.

Mr. Rennie said he knew an additional property transfer tax for foreigners was coming about three weeks ago, but he figured it would be about 5 to 8 per cent. He said a more holistic approach would have created a tax targeting speculators of any nationality for flipping properties rapidly and “interfering in the market.”

But as Rennie points out, the polling showed that people were ‘frantic’ and specifically wanted a tax on foreign buyers. He has since clarified that it was an astute assumption based on those polls rather than inside information that led him to believe a foreign buyer tax was coming. He has offered to step down as the chief fundraiser if the BC liberal government asks him to.

Though the optics of a marketer having advance knowledge of a surprise tax in his market isn’t great, what advantage could be taken of this position?

So far the tax has mainly provided marketing opportunities and  big headlines of a 75% drop in sales even though most sales haven’t been recorded yet.  Nobody really knows what affect this tax will have on the market if any, so what would you have done with a 3 week advance notice that this tax was coming?

 

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

“what advantage could be taken of this position?”

If he knew it was coming, he could close deals before the panic? Or tell his friends/ family/ preferred clients to do the same?

As to the ongoing ridiculous appearance of all this… well, I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.

david
Guest
david

Breaking News: BC politics is a cess pool of taxpayer fraud, quid pro quo favours, and self-enrichment. Vote and vote often.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Detached sales compared to July 2015
Richmond – 43%
Burnaby -50%
Coquitlam – 47%
East Van – 21%
West side -30%
West Van – 36%
North Van- 16%

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

This has nothing to do with the tax.

The real problem is recent permanent residents and new Canadian citizens bringing in laundered money primarily from China and buying multiple properties.

The BC Liberals have ensured a steady stream of rich Permanent Residents by doubling the number of foreign students.

Tcg
Guest
Tcg

^^^OMG this. Anyone who hasn’t spent time on a BC campus recently, holy shizballz!! Let’s get some numbers on foreign students! Apparently Lanagara doubled the number in the past few years and Emily Carr has to be up there too.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Its prices and listings that matter.

Prices up and listings down. Sales doesn’t help you. Don’t buy that Garth T crap.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Some of these numbers are NOT accurate. Google : ” REBGV July Stats” and see for yourself.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

which one?

vangrl
Member
vangrl
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

The sales plunge continues:

“Metro Vancouver real estate sales fall almost 20 per cent in Jul, The Province
http://www.theprovince.com/business/real-estate/metro+vancouver+real+estate+sales+fall+almost+cent+july/12101302/story.html

“Real estate sales tumbled almost 20 per cent in July across Metro Vancouver’s main real estate board compared with the same month last year”

““Home sale activity showed some moderating signs in late June and this carried into July,” said Dan Morrison, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.”

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

REBGV stats are out for July

Detached +1.1%
Condo +1.9%
All +1.4%

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Better headline:

“Metro Vancouver home sales plunge in July”, Business in Vancouver
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/metro-vancouver-home-sales-plunge-july/

“July home sales fell 18.9% compared to year previous and 26.7% from last month”

vangrl
Member
vangrl

sales-to-active listings ratio is dropping hard

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Like it does every summer?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
As much as 15% tax is a good change, coming from the bad government it isn’t actually good enough. Ban on emigration from China, cancellation of 10-year tourist visas and retroactive revision of RE sales that could involve money laundering resulting in RE confiscation and lifetime deportation would be the gutsy and right thing to do. That would be the minimum required for this province to enter a recovery phase and reestablish itself again as modern and progressive part of the west-world community. “The B.C. government is the Donald Trump of housing. He wants to build a wall to keep out Mexican immigrants because they take jobs from American workers. Christy Clark’s Liberal government has just put up a 15 per cent tax wall to stop money laundering mostly done by Chinese — because they make Vancouver home prices unaffordable… Read more »
Dave
Member

What probably happened was the Premier’s office approached a number of knowledgeable people in real estate to feel out their opinions on a tax. Rennie probably could see they were already far down that road when they approached him. So in his mind, he knew the tax was coming, but they maybe didn’t explicitly tell him that. I’m not sure how governments avoid playing their hand. Would we rather they just change tax rules without talking to experts? I’m sure they went to the banks, developers and others as well.

patriotz
Member

Experts are people who are unbiased and don’t have a personal interest in government decisions. Even if Rennie didn’t fail on the basis of his business interests, he would fail on the basis of his position as chief BC Liberal fund raiser.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Where did you find that definition of “expert?”

patriotz
Member

I was talking about someone who qualifies to give “expert” advice in the context under discussion, similar to an “expert witness” in a trial.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

and I’ll add, someone who is impartial….

realist
Member
realist

“I’m not sure how governments avoid playing their hand.” The same way everyone else legally does it: non-disclosure agreements.

patriotz
Member

You mean it would be OK to tell someone like Bob Rennie about it as long as he didn’t tell anyone else? Don’t you think he’d be able to take advantage of the information on his own?

realist
Member
realist

Patriotz, your rhetorical question is useful for clarification. You will know, but other readers might not, that non-disclosure agreements can have clauses specifying and limiting the use of the disclosed information by the signatory, in addition to limiting dissemination to third parties.

patriotz
Member

In the case of someone who sells RE for a living, it is impossible to distinguish whether he is or is not using the information, because the tax will have a direct or indirect impact on every RE transaction. It’s completely different from corporate non-disclosures where one or two companies are involved.

realist
Member
realist

Of course it could be difficult to prove his being in breach of such an NDA, as is often the case in the corporate sector when the item in question is, for instance, know-how, rather than a product.
Lest you assume I am somehow attempting to defend Mr. R., I certainly am not, and would never be inclined to do so, even with a big fat fee attached!

david
Guest
david

Chew on this: The premier’s office sees fit to consult realtors on important issues like this…. while keeping its own, well-paid finance staff completely in the dark.
Hunh.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Another small step and another half-baked solution. This province needs bold moves as said above.

“B.C. turns from foreign buyers to investor immigrants as Vancouver’s affordability crisis continues”

http://www.straight.com/news/747281/bc-turns-foreign-buyers-investor-immigrants-vancouvers-affordability-crisis-continues

patriotz
Member

“On July 28, Premier Christy Clark revealed she’s approached her Québécois counterpart and opened discussions on the issue.”

In other words, she’s unwilling to take responsibility to implement a made in BC solution.

“Tom Davidoff is an associate professor at the UBC Sauder School of Business who’s proposed improving housing affordability by shifting more of the tax burden from income to property.”

Like this.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

NDP housing critic David Eby seeks investigation into “leak” of information on foreign-buyer tax to marketer Bob Rennie

http://www.straight.com/news/747101/ndp-housing-critic-david-eby-seeks-investigation-leak-information-foreign-buyer-tax

“Who told Mr. Rennie in advance of the public announcement?” Eby told reporters at his West Broadway office. “Why was he told, whether it was in relation to his capacity as chair of the fundraiser committee for the B.C. Liberal Party or a major donor? Why was he told?

“What possible benefit could there be in him having personal knowledge as someone uniquely positioned to profit from this information?” the NDP MLA continued. “And did he act on this information? Did he engage in real estate transactions based on this insider information? Or did he tell his clients about this information and encouraged them to act on it?”

david
Guest
david

The BC government can’t even make a policy decision on the blatantly corrupt real estate market without itself getting caught being corrupt even in that.
Sad.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea
Should new millionaire migrants forfeit their C$800,000 ‘investment’ if they do not submit Canadian tax returns, and show they live in Quebec? Richard Kurland, a prominent Vancouver immigration lawyer, doesn’t support the One-Point Plan’s nuclear option, but instead says he has a “practical policy solution” for the QIIP: force applicants to submit Canadian tax returns in Quebec, declaring all global income, or lose their C$800,000. “At the end of the five-year investment term, the C$800,000 is not returned to the investor, but is held back, until the investor provides copies of at least three Canadian income tax returns reporting global income and property as a Canadian tax resident, in the intended province of destination,” Kurland suggested. He prescribed that this apply during an eight-year period, of three years preceding landing and five years afterwards. No more parking families in Canada… Read more »
patriotz
Member

The Charter of Rights guarantees the right of all permanent residents to live anywhere in Canada, and of course no province has the right to tax someone who doesn’t live there. But Quebec would be within its rights to keep the $800K if they don’t stay in Quebec. The question is whether the IIP’s would just regard this as an overhead cost.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

The real question is, why the f$&k is Quebec even allowed to have their own program when they’re selling Canadian residency, not Quebec residency. The Feds, and only the Feds should be the ones managing this program. At the very least, BC should still charge the 15% to the QIIP group until they become Canadian citizens.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

That was a rhetorical question since we all know why Quebec gets their own program. They are like a high maintenance ‘spouse’ (PC correct 😉 they’re only happy if you make them feel special.

patriotz
Member

Every province including BC has its own program. The details do differ, but the point is that every province is allowed to select immigrants according to its own criteria.

https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

It is a legal and binding contract that the QIIP applicants signed when they apply to come to Canada and if they don’t abide it, the $800,000 should be forfeited. Of course these assholes can move and live any where they like, but with $800,000 less. Win-win for Quebec

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“The question is whether the IIP’s would just regard this as an overhead cost.”

Raise the overhead cost to $2 million then.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Australia charges 5 million and we are a more desirable place

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Let’s make it $10 million.

And let’s call it a “Head Tax” just to piss people off.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

So much effort, time and money to deal with somebody whose main objective is to trick the system, take advantage and profit from it. Just do what US did, they canceled or limited their visas to certain countries and solved the problem. Whatever Canada do it won’t be able to outsmart those who mastered, fraud, cheat, trickery and deception.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Until Immigration is at least cut in half, all these solutions are bandaids. What needs to happen is an anti-immigration backlash. And don’t buy into that xenophobic crap.

And Ban multiple ownership of properties by Foreigners and permanent residents.

BREAKING NEWS...
Guest
BREAKING NEWS...

Just heard from a friend who is a para-legal that he had one transaction take place overseas.

The home was removed from MLS on Friday. Cash exchanged hands between permanent resident seller and foreign buyer in China over the weekend. Deal was done today by putting a price of sale well below market value. Think like 30% below.

The foreign buyer ended up with a deal even after paying 15% tax. The seller is happy as well as he got more than he thought he would.

patriotz
Member

How do they know the sale was below market value? Did they turn down a higher bidder?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

This story makes no sense. I call shennanigans.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Are you saying that amount paid in cash was significantly higher than the amount stated in the contract, right? (eg. foreign Chinese paid local Chinese 2.7M in cash while contract stated the price of 1.6M therefore foreign Chinese paid also 240K tax so he got the house worth ~ 2.8M for the total of 2.94M, saving 165K, the equivalent of 2 Range Rovers + some clothes from Holt Renfrew as a gift from Canadians)

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

So, they are trading Vancouver properties overseas, neither party nor their legal representatives located in Canada? Weird, spooky, creepy, scares me on a personal level, even before I begin to consider the social, political or abstract ethical implications. Aren’t they required by law to have SOME connection or other to Canada, even if not citizen nor permanent resident nor physical resident?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Nor tax resident?

patriotz
Member

The closing has to be handled here of course by a lawyer or notary. But apart from that no.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I guess we’ll see many houses from now on, being donated.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

One dollah!

I sell house to friend for $1 dollah!

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Anyone remember this?
I buy three my husbah gonna buy three…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKevSXL_104&feature=youtu.be

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Gosh, I don’t see why Canada is not defending its borders, honestly. Why even bother with a border or a military anymore if you’re just going to sell all your land and infrastructure to people whose lives and commitments are elsewhere. And when elsewhere is China, we’re talking about people who, along with their family, are subject to the potentially draconian force of a nondemocratic censoring state, one which applies the death penalty even for nonviolent crimes. I wonder how many properties are owned by people who have not personally set foot in Canada –or maybe they have come on a tour of Granville Island and seen some sights, but could not name the provinces if you asked them to. Eventually all the established more easily liveable areas in Canada could be more than 50% owned by people who are… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I truly believe when shit hits the fan “their ownership” won’t matter that much. Just one good decree solves that anomaly quickly and permanently.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I hope you’re right.

I could see the following happening: Trump takes over, I mean wins the election in, the US. A few months later he gets triggered by some report of what China is doing in the South Sea. He sends bombers who release bombs and people die. The rest of the world, including Canada, stand back from participation or support because of the US not having declared war or attempted any diplomatic consultations first, and because of the unpredictability of Trump. A tense year goes by, with free flow of people between China and Canada still allowed (while in the US they are distracted attempting to depose, I mean impeach, Trump.). And all of a sudden we wake up one day to hear that western Canada has become a territory of China.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
289
Sold
116

TI:9216

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Mr Yeeeeee
Guest
Mr Yeeeeee

10000+ by end of Aug

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

20000+ by the end of Dec

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

That would be a great leap forward.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

1958 to be exact.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Good times….good times…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/08/03/giving-historys-greatest-mass-murderer-his-due/

I’m so proud of our premier for celebrating the founding of the PRC and encouraging trade with those fine people.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

It is so so recent in history, 1958-62. For perspective, think about how events of the 60s in Canada are imprinted on everyone’s consciousness, whether earliest boomers or their grandchildren., and whether the events are there as personal experience or stories our grandparents tell. Think of how even the music of the period is still with us. The experiences people in China had with Mao are still with them, in some form. What does that mean for their way of being in the world?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

289 listings in August is huge.

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

highest since Aug 2014, Mind you inventory was around 16000 at that time.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Most listings in Aug, 2014 was 278, and it was a major outlier.

First 2 days of this months are already higher than that.

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

My bad I misread the spreadsheet looks like highest Aug listing in many many years. Fear is in the streets people want to take gains off the table. I don’t blame them. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

is there a public spreadsheet somewhere? thx

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE
Guest
OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Awesome job Adult Huggies on the spreadsheets.

http://i.imgur.com/dhMeAzK.gif

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

I did not make that, another member did.

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies
vangrl
Member
vangrl

thank you

burntout
Guest
burntout
Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

Guy at work who convinced his wife and all his extended family to speculate on multiple properties with maximum mortgages they could get is freaking out and saying he thinks its going down 30% or more. He is already thinking about claiming bankruptcy if that occurs. This was a guy who just a few months ago said yvr property only goes up. How quick things have changed, its almost unreal.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

If this is true (and, why wouldn’t it be?) I have a sneaking suspicion that many others are in the same boat. For example, my wife has told me of several co-workers whose “risk-taking/speculative” members have put condos in their kids’ (millenials, mostly) names with HUGE mortgages and minimal down payments…so, they’ll be the ones with a ruined credit rating when all is said and done. “Don’t Cry For Me, Argentina”.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

“…..risk-taking/speculative parents”…

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

Co worker bought first house in 2012, then another in 2014, another 2 in 2015. Down payments taken from existing equities gains using line of credits to buy next property and so on and so on. One bought in his name one in wifes one in brothers one and one in parents name using pension income from parents. Fake rental agreements for all and a whole lot of questionable ways to show income suggested by mortgage specialist at bank. All mortgages and lines of credits maxed out.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

My friend, he is an architech, purchased a house earlier this year, owns two houses already, told all his friends to purchase more including his dentist cause it’s going up. I think he better look for a new dentist soon.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

In the Spring, my wife was told by one of her patients she just met to buy a house as soon as you possibly can. He was so adamant and raging. I wonder how many other random strangers, friends and acquaintances he told, lol.

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies

We all witnessed the peak of this mania.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I thought I was experiencing it a few years ago when the 20 something woman who did my hair rolled her eyes and looked askance and acted superior to me because she had bought a condo and I had not.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

If co-workers seem a bit distracted in the coming months we must cut them some slack. It won’t be hard to keep in mind what they must be going through.

squeak
Member
squeak
So far so good…maybe. Many have rightfully lost faith in this province, if not this country. Things could be done so much better if our elected leaders would be so kind to be transparent and none of this backroom BS. Yes, many of those that “own” homes have been “playing being better”. But that is ok, it will not affect who I am, humbleness goes a long way, b/c it washes well in good times as well in bad times, no need to impress, pretend or keep up with the Jones’s. If a person places all their eggs in one RE basket, that should be their problem, solely. Not mine, b/c I did not: plain and simple and straight forward, no whishy washy. TY. There is a saying, the higher up you are, the harder you fall, unless the person… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Sales drop but prices rise;

“Vancouver detached home prices surge 38% amid tight supply in July”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-detached-home-prices-surge-38-amid-tight-supply-in-july-1.537498

“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says benchmark detached home prices surged 38 per cent last month to almost $1.6-million.”

“Overall, sales fell nearly 19 per cent in July amid a sharp drop in listings from the previous year. “

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Higher prices and thinner sales volumes usually precede a major bust. “Nothing to see here; move along, folks”.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Tales From Vancouver’s Housing Boom: The Winners and Losers”, BNN Video

http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-08-02/news/industries/real-estate/tales-from-vancouvers-housing-boom-the-winners-and-losers/

“Bloomberg News’ Katia Dmitrieva reports on the different people impacted by the housing boom in Vancouver.”

Adult Huggies
Guest
Adult Huggies
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Idiot…

“Jonathan Cooper of Macdonald Realty predicted some of these collapsed deals would end up in court.

“I think the next chapters in this story are going to be written by lawyers,” Cooper said, suggesting sellers could sue buyers who backed out of real estate deals, demanding compensation if they can’t find other buyers willing to pay as much for their houses.”

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/11322488

Dave
Member

I bet very few end up in Court. It didn’t happen in 2009 when people walked from deals. The legal system fails the average person. It’s too complicated, arbitrary, expensive and time consuming. Unless you’ve lost a big sum, it’s not worth the bother. The legal system is only for the 1%.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“B.C. Real Estate In ‘Absolute Mayhem’ Amid Talk Of Sales Collapse” Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/03/vancouver-real-estate-mayhem-foreign-buyer-tax_n_11322488.html

“Sales have been falling for months. For all the talk about the foreign buyer tax, data from the region’s real estate board shows home sales in Greater Vancouver fell for months before the tax was announced.”

patriotz
Member

“analysis of MLS data found that detached home sales collapsed by 75 per cent in the few weeks after the provincial government announced it was introducing a 15-per-cent sales tax on foreign buyers of residential real estate in Greater Vancouver.”

The tax was announced on July 25, nine days before the dateline of this article. Oh well it is the HoPo after all.

Dave
Member

That’s the media for you. Reporters are terrible nowadays. They either get it wrong or push a deceptive narrative.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The media sells entertainment. Reporters write what gets read.

specuskeptic
Member

“Reporters are faced with the daily choice of painstakingly researching stories or writing whatever people tell them. Both approaches pay the same.”
– Scott Adams, (The Dilbert Principle)

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

the tax and how it was implemented is a shock to the market. i expect prices to go down until the uptrend resumes. if prices don’t go down at all you know that this is a very strong market.

many HAM will find surrogates to buy through. but the tax will defiantly reduce demand.

one has to ask themselves, over the years has interest from China been growing or staying the same. i think it has been growing.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

also the clark implemented the tax quickly for political reasons. if she said there would be a tax in 6 months we would see a foreign buyer frenzy, and the government is now reporting foreign buyer numbers.

imagine the headlines when 50% of buyers are foreign. not good optics going into the election. so she decided to screw people who already had signed deals. what a fucking mess.

patriotz
Member

“so she decided to screw people who already had signed deals”

As if they were not trying to screw many other parties themselves, not the least BC taxpayers. Christy let them off easy.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

How is a local selling their house to a foreign national screwing anyone?

Would you like to see home sellers write “no Chinese” on their listing?

patriotz
Member

Oh you mean the locals who thought they’d make a killing selling to a foreign buyer? Well they get to keep the deposit if the buyer backs out. That’s getting something for nothing and they can take another shot at selling.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Many of these locals bought houses to move into. What happens to those deals?

I thought you were a smart guy patriotz. Why do I have to spoon feed u this stuff?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Treat housing as an investment, expect to take risks.

patriotz
Member

These fools are the people who need spoon feeding.

Dave
Member

Is it a mess? Hopefully.

Grim
Guest
Grim

its not about the tax, its about gov intervening. Who wants to invest in a market where the gov may do something wild like introduce a 15% tax that initiates in 9 days, with no warning to current deals in place?

When are they going to raise it to 20%? Will they give more warning next time? What else are they going to do? Its unpredictable now. This is like banning short selling during market selloffs, it just causes the market to sell off more.

Dave
Member

I wonder how many people will actually try to find a way around it. A lot of that foreign money was coming to Vancouver because we’re so laid back from a legal and tax point of view. It’s easy to park money here and you don’t get bothered more or less. But, this tax is a big change because the government has sent the message that people aren’t happy about the whole city being bought up and the government will intervene. You might find a way around it next month, but are you going to get hit up in a year, or possibly lose the whole investment? I’d say that dodgy purchases carry more risk today than they did two weeks ago.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

We’ll find out.

But it would be a mistake to predict what HAM does using a western perspective.

For HAM cheating is a virtue. It shows how clever they are. And family networks and uni friends are very strong relationships
Western people who can’t even talk about money with their best friends or family can’t conceive that someone would put property in another’s name. But it’s reality.

It’s common for HAM to use credit cards in other people’s names.

All this is happening under your nose because of a strong in-out group mind set. And u r the out group.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Wow HMB’s tune has sure changed. Where are the pictures of the space shuttle? Perhaps a pic of the Challenger would be better suited.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Obviously if you think HAM is driving the market and the government , despite what it has said the whole time directly attacks HAM you have to revisit your predictions. Otherwise you are no better than the people who use bearlogic

Kim
Guest
Kim

Older house in Oakridge, new listing 6062 Fremlin, lot 67×120 for 2.998m. For comparison, Older house on 49th in same area 2.499m on smaller 33×120 lot before tax was announced. Neither have sold yet.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

I thought the ending of zero down payments a few years ago would be the thing that finally brought down the market. It didn’t.

Then I thought the million dollar / 20% down regulation would do the trick. It didn’t either.

Same with reducing mortgage lengths to 35, then 30, then 25 years. No, no, and no.

Price increases for CMHC insurance. Nope. Ending “5% cash back ” mortgages. No. Tightened OSFI lending rules. No. Higher down payments over 500k. No.

The last 10 years has seen numerous rule changes designed to cool the market, yet it has kept rising. Will this new tax be the final straw that breaks the market? I hope so, but I’m not holding my breath.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Perhaps none of that worked because the market was being driven by foreign cash?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid
Definitely agree that foreign cash has been a major factor. But I think another reason these rules haven’t had a larger effect on prices is that they all address demand, but none of them address supply. On the detached side of the market nothing has been done to change the ALR, which is the major reason why we haven’t seen a net increase in detached supply in decades. But the condo supply has for some reason only barely kept up with population growth. In a normal functioning market you would see an increase in supply as prices rise and interest rates fall, but we haven’t seen the massive construction boom that you would normally expect (like they had in places like Miami and Vegas ten years ago). I suspect that onerous permitting rules, red tape, etc. is mostly to blame… Read more »
Kim
Guest
Kim

There’s plenty of supply. Rents have not increased to the point where it’s unsustainable like in the Bay Area (median for 2 br is 5k a month). But when you treat housing like stocks, then no, there is not enough supply. People are forgetting that the canadian dollar is pretty worthless these days and will be worth even less as the US fed raises rates again later this year or next as the BoC will be too chicken to raise rates. Remember, the dollar is down about 25% from its peak. Heck, just in the past couple years my favorite 1.50 chicken dish at Dai Tung went up 33% in price to 2 bucks. Maybe not that significant but it parallels the rise in real estate and the drop in the dollar.

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

2001-2011
Population increased by 123k households
Housing stock increased by 163k dwelling units.

The classic over-building that is the sign of a housing bubble.

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/2011_CensusBulletin1-Pop_and_Dwell.pdf

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty
Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty
Actually, when Flaherty upped CMCH standards back around 2011-13 home prices did flatten and there was a year back then that the average price in Metro dropped 3%. Apartment prices were flat in Metro from 2010-15. Taking inflation into account they were actually falling in real dollars. Of course, the changes were designed to slow or flatten the market – but not crash it – hence, no major price drops. Then in early 2015 Poloz started dropping rates due to the oil crash. Media back then were predicting that his actions would inflame the Van and TO markets. Happened. But, it’s not just CMHC and BoC – it’s the bond market that sets long term rates, and it is crazy with ECB printing money, buying bonds, now Brexit… and investors attracted to Canadian bonds. Central bankers have doubled the worlds… Read more »
HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Foreign investors even screw up the blueberry market:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/blueberries-blueberry-bc-market-china-money-land-1.3707048

The owner, an investor from mainland China, leases the estate to Fred Liu at such a bargain the farmer grows blueberries in its fields even though the bottom has fallen out of the market.

wpDiscuz