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Friday Free-for-all! August 12th 2016

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223 Comments

It’s that time of the week again…

Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–What record low rates mean for savers & economy
–Repeal foreign buyer tax
–Housing intervention could sideswipe economy
–Vancouver drop in building permits is countrys biggest
–How the market could affect banks
–Realtors mix business with condolences
–The crackdown on smurfing
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] the full article here. So far it looks like sales are dropping and listings rising over the last few months. According to zolo, the average sales price in […]

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HAMster

The central banker’s new grand plan; work until you die:

http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/rticle?locale=EN&newsid=i37893&mobile=false

We are slaves to the banks for life.

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southseacompany

“Canadian Housing ‘Close To Peak Crazy,’ B.C. Faces Long Decline: Reports”, Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/15/housing-real-estate-canada-peak-crazy_n_11526710.html

“Sales in Vancouver are down 18.2 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier, and down 28 per cent from a peak in February. Listings are up 2 per cent in the past year, suggesting a softening market — though new listings are still in short enough supply for it to be a sellers’ market.”

““Overall, we might be close to peak crazy in the housing market,” Capital Economics chief North American economist, Paul Ashworth, wrote in a client note Friday, ahead of the CREA data release.”

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Newcomer

Check out the video. Complete BS. “Banks are advising people to move to Vancouver because that’s where the jobs are.” Wow!

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bullwhip29

State-backed firms set to lead property sector gains
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2003706/state-backed-firms-set-lead-property-sector-gains

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bullwhip29

Home mortgages make up bulk of new loans in China in July
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/money-wealth/article/2003387/home-mortgages-make-bulk-new-loans-china-july

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bullwhip29

Online Vancouver rental bidding site gets mixed reception
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/online-vancouver-rental-bidding-site-gets-mixed-reception/article31403369/

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bullwhip29

Vancouver’s real estate tax sparks backlash from Chinese buyers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/vancouvers-real-estate-tax-sparks-backlash-from-chinese-buyers/article31404771/

>>> why is it that we only get the Chinese perspective on this? We never seem to hear a peep from Americans, S. Americans, Russians, Japanese, Europeans or the newly separated Brits.

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Best place on meth

The chinese feel they are entitled to buy as much property here as they can, the fact that they’re so outraged is a sign that this tax is a very good thing.

These are exactly the kind of parasites we don’t need here.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver Leads Third Straight Fall in Canada Home Sales”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/canadian-july-existing-home-sales-fell-1-3-realtor-group-says

“Canadian existing home sales declined for the third straight month in July, led by a Vancouver market that is showing signs of slowing down amid worries about affordability.”

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southseacompany

“We’ve seen the Vancouver housing movie before”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/weve-seen-the-vancouver-housing-movie-before/article31400786/?1471273860173

“Back in the early 1980s, Vancouver-area home prices fell off a cliff in the face of sky-high mortgage rates – the five-year rate peaked above 21 per cent in September, 1981 – and a nasty recession. House prices fell by more than 50 per cent over a five-year period.”

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Newcomer

These are the most important indicators: stories in which the narrative has changed from “we are all going to be rich” to “we are all going to suffer.” Both sell well. The second one actually sells a little better, but there are several industry sectors working hard to keep the narrative to the first one. One the second one takes hold in the collective imagination, everything changes.

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southseacompany

“Home sales fall for third month, as TD economist says Vancouver prices to drop 10%”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/home-sales-fall-for-third-month-as-td-economist-says-vancouver-prices-to-drop-10-1.546739

“More than half of all markets tracked by CREA showed declines in July, including Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.”

“A TD Economics forecast released Monday said that it expects overall home prices in Vancouver will fall 10 per cent by the end of 2017.”

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patriotz

What Two Years of Negative Interest Rates in Europe Tell Us

It would be far better if European governments used fiscal policy to increase demand by investing in roads, bridges, railroads, ports and other infrastructure. Government spending would create jobs and stimulate economic activity, and would not cost much…

The worry among many experts is that banks, institutional investors and even individuals desperate for higher returns might be seduced into taking foolish risks. They might also be tempted to make big investments overseas, driving up the price of stocks and bonds in the United States and Asia and creating bubbles that expose the global financial system and economy to another crisis. Some analysts are already worried about high prices for real estate, stocks and other assets.

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Combat roach

China fears Hillary Clinton far more than it does Donald Trump

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/11/china-fears-hillary-clinton-focus-on-south-china-sea-human-rights-far-more-than-it-does-donald-trump.html

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GTurn

The people on my blog just bought the biggest BS I ever spewed.

Told me the Vancouver detached went from $1.5 million to $1.1 million. $400,000 decrease. They bought it. Look at the comments. Hahahaha

Utter greater fools.

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Madashell

Not sure what you’re talking about but you’re talking about but according to zolo, the average selling price in Vancouver for march is 1.47 mill down to 1.2 mill in july, quite a drop, fool!
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

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Newcomer

This is true and significant in macro terms, but it’s mostly due to the sales mix, and one of the reasons SFH are not selling is that the market is so tight, people cannot find a place to buy that would allow them to sell their existing place. It’s not at all the same thing as the benchmark being down.

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Boombust

According to Ross Kay, GT is not far off the mark!

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Newcomer

Nice post on Victoria:
http://househuntvictoria.ca/

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franko

” But Canada under Justin Trudeau is going the opposite direction, with the Federal Liberals in China this week welcoming more….. ”

Seen this movie before. At least it backfired enough to for the BC govt to backtrack and impose the foreign buyers tax. Don’t expect any outrage from the local public to penetrate all that air between Justin’s ears.

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southseacompany

“Ever-lower interest rates have failed. It’s time to raise them”, The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/14/lower-interest-rates-failed-spending-retirement

“So if ultra-low interest rates are not stimulating growth, and if they are simultaneously undermining messages about sound money and saving for retirement, how about trying the opposite? A rise in rates, perhaps?

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VanRant

Chinese Consul-General Liu Fei, based in Vancouver — who argued last year that B.C. should consider a tax on offshore buyers as well as other measures. A truly sovereign country, Liu suggested, would impose a variety of regulations to curtail runaway property speculation by offshore rich, regardless of where they come from. Even though the Chinese consul-general appeared to waver on the details of B.C.’s 15 per cent tax in a news report Friday, most of the world’s countries, especially China, have a variety or rules and taxes to restrict foreign ownership. That’s what’s happened even among Canada’s NAFTA partners, the U.S. and Mexico, as well as in Australia, Hong Kong, Denmark, France, Switzerland and a host of other countries. But Canada, under Justin Trudeau, is going the opposite direction, with the federal Liberals in China this week welcoming more… Read more »

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Best place on meth

“Vancouver realtor Layla Yang says escalating housing prices should not be influenced by governments — because “this is Vancouver and Canada and it’s a free-market economy. No one can stop it.”

Layla is quite the mouthy cunt, isn’t she? I wonder how that investigation into her death threats is going.

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Kim

Nothing is a 100% free market. Even the US stock market is highly regulated. Try insider trading in the US, she’s an idiot, like most realtors.

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UBC in Crisis Mode

What investigation? Layla Yang made millions as a realtor in the last few years and she can afford lawyers.

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Zero Down Forty

These RE agents never complain when government influence causes home prices to rise; government induced near-zero interest rates, CHMC subsidization of mortgages, bringing in zero down payment/40 yr mortgages, home ownership grants, property tax deferrals. All quiet in that front.

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bullwhip29

Historic video shows Vancouver and Victoria in the early 1900s
http://globalnews.ca/news/2880963/historic-video-shows-vancouver-and-victoria-in-the-early-1900s/

>>>the good ol’ days…

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Good old days in what is now downtown Vancouver sold for approximately $1.00 an acre.

The city’s first mayor, Malcolm McLean, was a real estate agent. In 1887 Vancouver had 12 grocery stores and 16 real estate firms.

“Land prices are high, it is said, higher than anything would warrant. ’Why, the workingmen cannot afford to pay at the rate demanded for these tiny outside lots,’ asserted one man recently. The same thing was said here twenty years ago, answer the pioneers; others of us know that it was repeated ten years ago and five years ago, and our children and our children’s children will hear the same tale of woe decades hence.”

– RJ McDougal, BC Real Estate, 1911

http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-destiny-history-vancouver/

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Best line from the article – In fact, there is one recorded instance of a corner lot on Cambie and Broadway being listed for $90,000, and eventually selling for less than $8,000.

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Best place on meth

100 years later some things never change.

Back then it was the horses shitting in public.

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bullwhip29

Death to the single family home for a more livable Vancouver says UBC professor
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/single-family-homes-1.3719685

>>> when something becomes out of reach, you naturally come up with countless ways to bash it all while justifying your apparent moral decision to opt for a form of housing that is supposedly more efficient and environmentally friendly (not to mention within your price range). sounds like sour grapes to me….

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

WHEN THE BOOK COMES OUT WE NEED SOMEONE TO PDF THE BOOK AND SETUP A FREE LINK SO THIS ASSHOLE DOESN’T GET A CENT FROM THE BOOK.

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Mortgageslave

If anybody can’t see that Oracle is a realtor then you are blind!!

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Newcomer

I can’t see Oracle having a job. He’s just a kid trolling.

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Oracle

I have a single detached home being built for myself. What do you losers have?

Good luck getting one for your families. Enjoy the rent …that’s about to increase.

Good luck.

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Mortgageslave

AND OVER, WHAT A FUCKIN LOSER! LMAO

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Oracle

Worth over a million. Do you even have your own home or you rent? Go to sleep early and pay ur income taxes this week.

The non working class will collect your rent at the end of the month also.

Look in the mirror after reading this. Who’s the loser? Hahaha

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Oracle

This is where I say enough with arguing against high house prices.

Let renters suffer. I have my lot with a house being built.

Good luck.

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Mortgageslave

@ORACLE “Did you factor in the exponential increase in immigration that is set to unfold??”

This dumbass keeps going on and on with his made up scare tactics about huge immigration numbers coming. He doesn’t even realize that nobody (or a very small %) of imigrants will come here to buy with a 15% tax. Move on, go back to your realtor scare tactic handbook and come up with something new. Try “we’re not making anymore land”! That worked well in Vancouver in the 80s and Japan 20 years ago etc, etc… Classic dribble. The desperations and realization with Oracle is very high with the constant posts and repeating the same made up shit over and over…..

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OPENHOUSEMASSACRE

Now the truth come out denying foreign purchase only represent a small fraction New foreign buyers’ tax is bound to have an impact, particularly in markets like West Vancouver and North Vancouver, which have been “incredibly dependent on offshore money or new money” that’s come from sales to foreign buyers in other areas of the Lower Mainland Real estate agents have estimated a significant number of deals at the higher end of the market in North and West Vancouver have involved foreign buyers .in West Vancouver recently sold a house for a retired couple in Ambleside to buyers from mainland China for about $2.5 million. Number of sales for detached homes in July were down 45 per cent over last year and down 15 per cent in North Vancouver for the same time period. 44 West Vancouver sales in July… Read more »

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Best place on meth

Looking at data that is a week old, so it’s probably deteriorated even futher now,

Months of inventory for detached as of Aug 5th (and July 22)

West Van – 11 (12)
Richmond – 14 (7)
Van West – 17 (6)

These areas as we all know are HAM central.

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Rocker guy

How is MOI calculated? Daily Sales / Inventory / 30?

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Best place on meth

I’m going by this guy’s sales/listings graph which he publlishes every 2 weeks.

The first bar that says Vancouver is actually the west side and the 6% is the inverse of MOI – ie divided 100 by 6 to get MOI of 17.

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Best place on meth

Did I forget the link?

Oh yes I did!

http://www.vancouvermarketreports.com/

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BubbleTea

There are many factors driving this market, the main one is the foreign buyers, FOMO, flipper and low interest rate. It the foreign buyers is slowed, then FOMO and flippers will also slow and if interest rate rises, then this market is toast.

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