Friday Free-for-all! August 5th 2016

It’s the end of another summer work week and that means it’s time for another one our regular end-of-the-week news round-ups and open topic discussion threads.

It’s Friday Free-for-all time!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Return to normal mortgage rates would crush Canadians
Prices driven by lending, not foreign investors
Sales drop, prices rise
Media runs big headlines around buyer tax
Will tax work-arounds lead to lost property?
Will collapsed deals end up in court?
Anecdotal panic
The google docs data spreadsheet
Eby seeks inquiry into tax info leak
Government will intervene

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] foreign buyer tax on sales.   In looking for some I poked my head over to one of the more active housing blogs in Vancouver and was honestly shocked at the amount of blatant racism and garbage in the comments. […]

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
tim
Guest
tim

This. Passing a law to overrule snob strata councils is the one measure that could help the rental crisis in the short term.

Dyugle
Guest
Dyugle

Can a bylaw be written to override that right? If not then the Province could change the statute to allow bylaws to overide and thus put the ball into the city’s court while appearing to do something and passing blame to the city if anything goes wrong. Seems like a win for the government.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Preliminary numbers indicate 427 deals to collapse after 15% foreign buyer tax.

yvr2zrh
Member

I wonder how they will report these through the monthly sales figures. They do track deal collapses in the system but I would expect at least this would be reported as a net reduction in sales – such that the deal collapse – which was previously reported as a sale – is now a negative sale.

As for the final impact on this – I would say that we should end up with at least 2-3 times this amount being impacted due to the multiplier effect. Who knows – we could have a massive connected chain of deals collapsing. It seems to be around 1 months worth of foreign capital being eliminated from the monthly sales volumes.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this isnt all it is cracked up to be. the seller still keeps deposit. inconvenient and clumsy…definitely. for those that couldnt come up with the extra cash through any means (savings, friends, family, bank) probably shouldnt have been buying in the first place. for those that picked the lesser of two evils and reneged on their purchases, well, they can go F themselves as far as I am concerned. when you gamble on a stock and lose, you deal with it and move on. you don’t get to UNDO the trade

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Unless prices fall significantly in the next month or so, tis was all smoke and mirrors.

tim
Guest
tim

People are stubborn. Prices wouldn’t fall for months. Sales might though.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

only way prices fall meaningfully is if HAM that is fully entrenched in vanc re decides to head for exits en masse. this is highly doubtful. more likely we see mkt pause/rest followed by more subdued price gains. those multi-million dollar mansions will stay well out of reach for average locals while prices in less expensive tax free zones may continue to motor upwards.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

realtor BS. There is no way of accurately knowing.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell
Canada has been a favourite destination for the Red Aristocracy’s family fortunes for about a decade, but especially since Xi came to power nearly four years ago. That is in large part because of the lack of publicly-available records of beneficial owners of property or businesses in Canada. The anonymous nature of investment in Canada makes it difficult for Chinese Communist Party disciplinary bodies to know who is breaking the currency laws by exporting more than the equivalent of $50,000 a year. Australia has been much more proactive than Canada in trying to curb the inflationary effects of these Chinese fortunes on its local housing and property markets. Politicians in British Columbia have shied away from acting for fear of being accused of racism. What B.C. has failed to understand is that this dangerous flood of money has nothing to… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

For the last time, $50,000 a year blah blah blah is not how they are getting money out.

Smoke and mirrors for the naive.

They are getting money out via “import over-pricing”. Thats how you buy a $4 million home with cash.

patriotz
Member

“Australia has been much more proactive than Canada in trying to curb the inflationary effects of these Chinese fortunes on its local housing and property markets. ”

Chinese Investment in Australian Real Estate Doubles

Australia housing bubble fears make investors nervous about Big Four banks

Our house price-to-income ratio now in Australia makes the American housing bubble in the lead up to 2007 look positively moderate,” Jonathan Pain, publisher of investment newsletter, The Pain Report, told CNBC’s “Street Signs.”

patriotz
Member

“”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It is always a pleasure to take money from rich but stupid and superstitious.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Chinese are the most gullible and stupid people on earth. Make something with all 8s or gold plated and they’ll hand over their money. Stupid is as stupid does.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vail Resorts makes $1.4B takeover offer for Whistler-Blackcomb
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/whistler-blackcomb-vail-resorts-1.3711427

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

This is the main way foreign money comes in: “Import over-invoicing”. The 50K is smoke and mirrors.

http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/08/01/china-capital-controls-still-being-evaded/

patriotz
Member

This is not porn site. Can we eliminate this pollution ASAP please. Less than 10% of images have shown any information anyway.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Agree 100%. Some of us view this site at work, and with these images, this can become an embarrassment. Also, no chance of sending anyone a link to an informative post if these inappropriate images are on the same page.

yvr2zrh
Member
Agree on this – – Let’s get back to the normal discussion and arguments. Now – as for the daily sales stats – I had some thoughts about this. Firstly, we are two markets. SFH and Condos. We have a SHF market which has likely been fueled by foreign investment and now will have some slowdown. We have a condo market which is fueled by house horniness (sorry – a Garth term), low interest rates, bank of mom and dad, and demographics. I would say we will see a slowdown – say 15% sales volume on Condos but 40% on SFH. If you look at the total market – that should get us to around 2450 units in August – – That will be pretty bad I would say. What will be the most interesting will be how much foreign… Read more »
Madashell
Guest
Madashell

From what I have been reading, a lot of presale condos has been marketed in China and not even offered to locals. I think if china ever gets its act together and stop the massive capital outflow, it could be lights out for Vancouver.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Your model fails to take into account the fact that permanent residents already here are going to increase the money they are bringing in from overseas. Instead of owning 3 homes each, now it will be 4-5 homes each as there is less competition to purchase and a safer place to store their money.

It’s foreign money. Laundered by recent immigrants.

yvr2zrh
Member

Oracle – With no disrespect – I think this logic is flawed.

patriotz
Member

I think historically condos have fallen more than SFH in declining markets. The two are linked in that SFH owners fund condo purchases both by downsizing, and by HELOCS funding purchases by kids or second properties. Condos also have a much higher % of investor owners which makes supply/demand more volatile.

But I think also it matters which number you look at for SFH, average or some sort of benchmark. The really high end significantly affects the average.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

This could be huge!
Our friend, the lawyer who tracks down illegal money from criminals for China tweets: Look out Vancouver! China issues law to monitor $50K wires to foreign countries (e.g., Canada) for money laundering. http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portal/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3
This could be bigger trouble for Vancouver’s RE than Krusty’s 15% tax.

space889
Member
space889

How about $30K? That’s how much HSBC Premium account allows someone here to transfer from their Chinese RMB account per day with no paper work or money laundering issue to boot!

Mortgageslave
Member
Mortgageslave

U f’in dumbass, hsbc is under deferred prosecution from the US. You make up so much crap space case. This means of they get caught laundering money again they lose the right to trade in USD. Game over, but sure they’ll risk it for 30k. Any employee no doing 100% due diligence is walked out the door. You don’t haves cluewhat your talking about..moron!

jjss
Member
jjss
jjss
Member

What Seattle Can Learn from Vancouver

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The 15% tax apparently had little effect on PR people bringing in laundered money. If sales any above 100/day this week, then this market will power higher.

This is the week we know.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

We just hit the new low… “SFU student living homeless, afraid to apply to shelter”

A Simon Fraser University theatre student is choosing to be homeless because he can’t find affordable housing within his means.

http://goo.gl/QqhYBY

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I call bull shit on that article. There are plenty of studio places for $800 or less on Craigslist. If you are willing to share, $1800 or less will get you plenty of 3 brms basement suites. I always lived with roommates at school and commuted for the best part of an hour to get to campus, and I certainly didn’t go the paper about it. A student’s life is not luxury, but if you can’t find a place for 800 or you are playing 400 to share a place with 10 people, you are just stupid. If you are living in public buildings on campus, you need to fix your financial situation, not whine about rents.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I just started to build on my lot. Going to have 2 basement suites.

I bet any money that i will command $1500 from each suite within 2 years.

Mexicans won’t require a visa by Dec. By then, 1 million people will have ten year visitor visas. They can stay here 2 years at a time. Work underground.

Medical is $149/month for a 50 year old.

Trust me, our whole extended extended family is here this way. These numbers aren’t even counted in the regular immigration numbers.

This is why rents are set to explode.

space889
Member
space889

So you are bitching and complaing about immigrants and fanning the flame of anti-immgration party, while at the same time, doing EXACTLY what you are protesting about on this blog?? Talk about having your cake and eat it too….

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Dude, it’s the policies.

Politicians enable this charade.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

I watched a documentary about a high level degree student at UCLA who lived in his car. It’s fairly current. LA has mad rent increases there too.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Its because visas are given out like candy.

540,000 ten year visas given out in caanada last year.

Rents going up? You haven’t seen nothing yet. Wait till next summer

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Let me tell you 2 hours ago
You brought it on yourselves you young timid Canadians (20’s-50’s) by not standing up for your Canadian way of life and laws. Your generation has to grow a pair and like Clint Eastwood said recently ‘not be part of the pu**y generation’ accomodating, accepting and afraid of offending people. So do something about it youngsters and defend yourselves. Start by offending the wealthy offshore money launderers, housing speculators and non residents and demand that the inflow of suspicious and ill gotten cash and gold be stopped.

space889
Member
space889

Right, it’s all the foreign money that drove up the rents and made this student homeless cuz he’s too good to have roommates and such like, oh I don’t know, thousands of other students like him who are $$ poor. Nope, it’s all the evil Chinese fault.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Demand an end to rampant immigration.

Otherwise, welcome to an Asian way of life within 10 years in Metro Vancouver.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Way of life or simply experiencing being excluded from strategically located establishments such as gyms, spas, certain restaurants, and certain financial services, because their business is all conducted in Mandarin. I know of such a place in Richmond, a spa-gym that refuses to print its brochures or its website in English, and whose outside signage is not in English and whose staff speak very little English. They could give me no reason when I asked about it and asked whether it was a private club. They just nodded and smiled and got me out of the door as soon as they could. But I really need to go to a gym right in that area. This strikes me as discriminatory — am I mistaken about this?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Brewing, artificial and forced unfitting can’t last long.

space889
Member
space889
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

This is not the website where personal ambitions and adulthood objectives of this character should be proclaimed. There are other forums for that.

space889
Member
space889

Plenty of local Caucasians frequenty places like Big Feet, Swan Lake, etc where nobody speaks any passable English no problem. Maybe the problem is you?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

You didn’t actually read what I wrote, did you Space889? Totally missed the point.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I like what the new Philippines president is doing with regards to gangsters and drug dealers – declared open season on them. Hunted down like dogs….shot dead.

Imagine if we could do the same here with money-laundering PRC scumbags.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Signs emerge that Canada’s hottest housing markets may be cooling” Globe & Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/after-long-rally-canadas-housing-market-may-be-primed-for-a-slowdown/article31303719/?1470621057441 “In Greater Vancouver, house prices have continued to soar more than 32 per cent from last July. But sales dropped nearly 19 per cent. It was the fourth successive month that sales came in below comparable levels from the previous year. It also comes at a time when the number of houses on the market has started to rise.” “In July, CMHC introduced new restrictions on how lenders use portfolio insurance. The changes are complex and technical, but the end result is that it will likely mean higher costs for banks and mortgage lenders. That could potentially mean higher costs for mortgage borrowers, or less money to make new loans.” “More importantly, last month, the OSFI announced a plan to require lenders to hold more capital… Read more »
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Forgot to add, the ‘investors’ you find through your crowdfunding.campaign get a piece of the pie. But they don’t get to live in it. So it seems like a bad deal for them.

Brian Ripley
Guest

The combined average sum price of a Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto condo is currently at a new record of 41% (no typo) more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD
Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

That metric will soon be greater than an average priced Edmonton detached house at the current rate of condo ownership desire.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Did anyone get fridays stats?

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Paul is probably on holiday and according to Rob Chipman, friday’s sale is 147

Kim
Guest
Kim

In quebec, but nonetheless, the Chinese are finding ingenious ways of profiting off real estate, even when they don’t own the thing.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-airbnb-regie-du-logemont-1.3707663

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

If the owner changes the locks as is his right, the chinaman will probably threaten him with a lawsuit and demand an apology.

Speaking of butthurt vermin….

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/chinese-fans-demand-apology-from-australian-swimmer-after-taunting-124325828.html

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already
Leo S
Guest

Where can I get the historical house price data for Vancouver in CSV format? I can’t find any source of it, other than the usual chart of house prices since 1977 that yattermatters publishes. Is there no source for the data out there?

nic
Guest
nic

try teranet, their numbers can be downloaded into excel

Leo S
Guest
Leo S

Unfortunately doesn’t go back that far. Also not the same as actual prices. I’m shocked this doesn’t exist out there. We have so much better info in Victoria.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Ross Kay, Canadian RE analysis is calling Vancouver RE top on Feb and correction on July.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdfFACK47Xo&sns=tw
Interview start on 22 minutes in the show.

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Same Ross Kay that called for a correction 3 years ago?

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

He was right. There was a correction 3 years ago in 2013.

space889
Member
space889

So why are people complaining about high house prices here now then? Doesn’t seem like much of a correction if people here are still bitching about high prices, instead of rushing out and buy.

patriotz
Member

A correction means prices have returned to levels appropriate to rents and incomes, i.e. correct levels. There was no correction in 2013.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Your arbitrary definition. But not mine.

patriotz
Member

All definitions are arbitrary. However mine is objective. What’s yours?

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Look up the definition of a market correction vs. a reset and then get back to me. Hint 10%.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So Ross Kay says Whistle or Bust was right on the money.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Good call

YLTNboomerang
Member

Never cal the top until the news stories are about people losing their fortunes and everyone says they knew it was a bubble all along.

patriotz
Member

That’s the bottom, or close to it.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Parents’ neighbour’s house after sitting for four week not willing in Killarney area, price reduced from 2.688m to 2.488m. Six year old house on 41 lot. There are 65 detached homes for sale in that area.

mls watch
Guest
mls watch

They should know that the 8888888 do not work anymore.

Kim
Guest
Kim

The story is the son moved out and can’t help with the mortgage and even renting two units can’t cover the mortgage. The husband works at a lower middle class job. They need to down size and are still hoping to cash in while the market is “hot”.

space889
Member
space889

And it will be Chinese’s fault if they can’t get the high price? Just like it’s Chinese fault that the price is so high in the first place?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

People whose mortgage payment plan is based on helper suites are in for a world of hurt when the market turns.

Best place on earth
Guest
Best place on earth

Meanwhile, rental is hard to find.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yup. For now. Thing is, we’ve been adding 40 K/year to the population and 30 K units/year to the housing stock. If you assume an average household size of 2 people, that leaves 10 K units a year in unused stock. So where is it?

Kim
Guest
Kim

If you assume housing should be used for people to live in and not flip as stocks, we do not have an under supply as rents have not increased as much as prices. The Bay Area has a true housing shortage as rents there are through the roof (5K for a 2BR). I still see “Units for rent” in the new complexes on Cambie.

Kim
Guest
Kim

They are empty. In my complex 10% of the units are empty.

YLTNboomerang
Member

At my old place on Beach Crescent I would say the place was way more than 10% empty just by the unused parking spots! I had one spot for my unit and had 2 cars and a motorcycle and had no issue parking them all I just monitored what spots were not used and used them, only once did I pick poorly and got a note. I told my buddy and he parked his boat in one of the spots on the lower level every winter – he didn’t even live there!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Lots of people who live downtown choose not to own cars, and rent/coop for the times they need them.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Yes, that is what Gregor would like to think. I am down to one car and use the coo-ops but the major demographic that doesn’t own cars didn’t even have their drivers licenses and the co-ops didn’t exist when I lived on beach crescent 10 years ago. This bubble has been growing for a long time.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That has been my guess. So if prices tank and people who own those units decide to rent them for a few years until the market recovers, all those helper suites will be without tenants, which will make paying those mortgages on Vancouver salaries very hard.

On the other hand, who’s to say prices won’t double over the next two years?

patriotz
Member

Vancouver couple with bulk of their assets in real estate urged to diversify

And in our continuing series, yet another couple betting it all on RE. Usual boomers this time.

Kim
Guest
Kim

I don’t j derstand how they could’ve bought a 700k mortgage with 360k in upgrades? What cottage in a rural area costs 1m?

YLTNboomerang
Member

What about that $500K HELOC, sounds like somebody has been using their house as an ATM and living larger than their income justifies – aka 90% of homeowners in YVR.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Blame China, tho.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You spelled “Nuke” wrong.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Sorry, I don’t advocate genocide like you do.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You don’t know what genocide actually means, just like you don’t know what racism means.

You’re a stupid, lazy, ignorant twat who likes to throw incendiary words around because it’s the easy thing to do, no explanation or knowledge required.

A perfect mindless follower for Garth the scumbag.

HEAD TAX!!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Incendiary? Traitor!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Perhaps Shut believes that the 8 weeks of studying he did for a real estate license entitles him/her to comment authoritatively on matters that sociologists, anthropologists and historians spend years studying in order to correctly understand.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Central bank flirting with negative interest rates, analysts say”‘, Business In Vancouver

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/canada-flirting-negative-interest-rates/

“Last December, Poloz gave a speech at the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto and broached the subject of negative interest rates as part of the “evolution of unconventional monetary policies”.

“the idea is to float the term to help soften the blow if the BoC is forced to further cut the overnight benchmark rate, which sits at 0.5%.”

Kim
Guest
Kim

Prepare for rampant inflation, not just house prices but all goods.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

We already have rampant inflation. Take a look at the stock-market or your local super market. The feds are lying to us.
“The grim reality is that real inflation is 7+% per year”
http://dailyreckoning.com/whats-coming-going-mess/?utm_campaign=Contact+SNS+For+More+Referrer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=snsanalytics

Kim
Guest
Kim

You’re absolutely right. like a said before, my favorite 1.50 chicken dish at Dai Tung is now 2 bucks (for those of you who don’t know, Dai Tung is a restaurant in east Van famous for their cheap chicken dishes during the weekday to lure you in), a 33% rise in just a couple years. (50 cents is not a lot in absolute terms but it is in relative terms).

And don’t get me started about inflation at the night markets.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

At $1.50 a plate, I would wager that was not chicken you were eating.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

These people would catch that wouldn’t they?
http://www.healthinspections.ca/britishcolumbia.html

Or would it fall through the cracks of official safeguards as long as the rabbit or dog or whatever it is did not have any bacteria in it?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Speaking of which, is there any way a citizen can find out the actual owner(s) of a business operating in Vancouver?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Cheap lunch specials are generally the evening before’s leftovers.

patriotz
Member

“The last two months alone have seen Britain leaving the European Union”

Except they haven’t. Great way to start an article.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Every central banker’s wet dream, but nobody has any success in making that happen. Japan has been trying for 25 years and prices are still going down!

Here’s an article from a while that explains what it’s like on the ground.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/global/30deflation.html?_r=0

patriotz
Member

“nobody has any success in making that happen”

Zimbabwe, Venezuela, recently Russia. Problem is making it happen in a 1st world economy with stagnant wages. Solution IMHO is put more money in workers’ pockets.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

I fear the solution is armed conflict. I don’t want to be right.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

They weren’t trying. Apples and oranges.

But I think you are right about the solution. Raising the minimum wage would be a good place to start. Pulling on the string, instead of pushing it.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Population declining.

Japan an unique case.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Polozer, along with all central bankers around the world should have a get together where they all take cyanide and make the world a decent place again.

realist
Member
realist

To paraphrase W.B. Yeats: “And the rough beast of NIRP, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Ottawa to be born.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Things fall apart; the central bankers cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned in debt;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

: )

realist
Member
realist

LOL! Thank you!

Best place on earth
Guest
Best place on earth

Oh no,it is the end of mankind. Go hide, stupid bears.

realist
Member
realist

No, no, not the end of mankind. Just the glimmer of the end of positive interest rates in Canada. You know, the kind we’ve had since the days of New France, and in the rest of the world for, oh, say, 5000 years. Nothing to worry about, tho!

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Works pretty well, actually!