The ‘cry wolf’ club

There are a few organizations that have raised a public alarm over the state of the Canadian housing market, with particular focus on Toronto and Vancouver:

The IMF, The Bank of Canada, The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Most of the big banks, The OECD, and more.

It seems that everyone is freaking out about the Canadian housing market.

Despite industry assurances that the hottest housing markets in Canada, particularly Vancouver, will always remain hot, and that it is physically impossible for prices to decline in this miracle economy, Canadians are now becoming aware that those assurances have just been another load of industry hype. And a larger share of them are starting to grapple with a new reality – a reality in an over-leveraged, inflated housing market where prices have come to rest on the edge of a cliff.

In Vancouver’s once white-hot commercial real estate market, the hunt is now on for Chinese buyers as big institutional investors are trying to unload.

And yet, despite years of warnings here we are near record high house prices. If you bought a few years back and sold a month ago, you’ve done quite well.

So it seems we’re now entering another down phase, with reports of softening sales and prices, especially at the high end. The warnings are getting louder, but of course there are always people who propose that this market is different and will never truly crash.

Sometimes the number of warnings and lack of crash almost seems to prove it – Just like the boy who cried wolf, we start to get desensitized to all the warnings.  Unfortunately for some of the villagers we all know how that story ends.

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[…] –Some recent stats –Rentals, the other disaster –For rent, van with no toilet –Scotiabank: Buyer tax the right move –Mansion prices drop –Prices to dip 10% –Thousands of job losses –What 3 mill gets you in Scottsdale –Vancouver & Toronto go in different directions – […]

Hyper-mega-Bull
Hyper-mega-Bull
3 years ago
yvr2zrh
3 years ago

Some important stats. For the Detached market, approximately 40% of the transactions for August have Pre-Tax sale dates. I have the download of the sales with sale dates in August and am comparing them to the pre-tax sales. The prices are around 10% lower (median). So – the numbers that come out in August will be a mix of pre-tax and post-tax (as Steve S. has been saying in his public statements). A large number of transactions will be pre-tax including those that rushed to complete before the tax deadline. Without any reference point, it is difficult to say if this is a normal mix. However – now that the pre-tax sales are no longer posting for the most part – we are seeing sales slow even more. Almost every sale in Van West post tax has a discount to… Read more »

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  yvr2zrh

Great work. Let’s hope prices come down about 30%. Then relatives hoping to live with me can buy their own places.

Openhousemassacare
Openhousemassacare
3 years ago
Reply to  yvr2zrh

Can u please upload the sales with sale dates in August and comparing them to the pre-tax sales ?

Matsui
Matsui
3 years ago

Eventually humans have to start regulating those locusts the same way as plague rodents, otherwise they’ll continue to spread disease of the worst kind all over the place. Enough is enough, the shit is up the nose.

southseacompany
southseacompany
3 years ago

“Number of home sales fall in Metro Vancouver after tax”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/number-of-home-sales-fall-in-metro-vancouver-after-tax-1.3744086

“Sales of single family homes dropped by half last month across several parts of Metro Vancouver, but it’s too early to call a long-term cooling trend, says one industry expert.”

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

http://globalnews.ca/news/2917393/students-struggle-to-find-housing-in-red-hot-rental-market/

Local students being displaced by foreign students and 10 year visa holders.

If I was affected, all hell would break loose. But good for the system that locals can take and take.

Unbelievable.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

My landlord decided to raise my rent today. Knows I’m going to move out. Little does the asshole know that I’m collecting all the info to make a huge file on him with CRA.

Gonna follow his through completely. Utter BS by immigrants with 3rd world values.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

Oh…my….god….this one has a flush toilet.

I can see this fetching $150 a night on AirBnB, maybe even $170 if parked next to a Safeway.

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/rds/rvd/5704171315.html

What time do the ferries start in the morning?

squeak
squeak
3 years ago

I can see those young people with at least a 1/2 brain running away from Vancouver.

Buyer\'s Unite!
Buyer\'s Unite!
3 years ago

Buyer’s Unite! Only we can make this crash. Ignore all the attempts by the special interest groups to scare you into buying. The detached market is crashing hard and only we can make sure it gets back to fair market value. Don’t buy until prices are 50 percent lower or more. We can do this!

Jdjdj@jeje.com
Jdjdj@jeje.com
3 years ago

The Mandarin only strata in Richmond is back on.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  Jdjdj@jeje.com

Yeah, the scumbags are back to their old tricks.

When people come to our country and thumb their noses at our laws, culture and language there is only one solution.

Camps.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

I listened to this yesterday, the people calling in were livid at the behaviour of the chinese.

Fun times ahead in race relations around here.

Matsui
Matsui
3 years ago
Reply to  Jdjdj@jeje.com

Those rats never learned a lesson.

Openhousemassacare
Openhousemassacare
3 years ago

Is this the sign of things to come ? stay in Vancouver for $60 a night? How about in a van?

There is no bathroom. “There are coffee shops that are a two-minute walk away, the community centre is really close by,” that there is also a also ‘pee jar’ guests are welcome to use.The response has been overwhelming

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-camper-van-for-rent-airbnb-1.3740754

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

Anyone hoping to buy a cheap van to profit from this latest trend, sorry, you’re already too late.

All moldy 30 year old vans fitted with a pee bucket have been sold as far as 108 Mile House and Grand Forks.

Real estate moves fast in BC so stay on your toes.

YLTNboomerang
3 years ago

I met with a 3rd year engineering student today as a mentor to help him consider different career options, one of the things I mentioned is that he needs to be open to relocation and I mentioned how in the US folks would think nothing of moving their family across the country for a job and that Canadians are much more rooted so often a job may not get as many applicants as it should because the local population lacks the skills and applicants from afar in Canada do not apply – so don’t just look for jobs in your local region. Surprisingly he agreed and said that most of his friends have no desire to buy a home and get locked down to a city just because of this! Hmmm, what happens if gen Y (or maybe Z for… Read more »

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

Larry “Head Tax” Yatter’s chart is looking quite spiffy.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2016/09/government-fiddle-burns-vancouver-real-estate/#more-40325

Average price of detached plunges $300K in one month, wiping out all gains from the previous 12 months..

Same with condos, entire gain from the last year gone.

Oh, and some sob story in the last paragraph about all the parasites that will suffer…yadda…yadda…yadda.

Fuck ’em.

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
3 years ago

Wish it were true. Prices around my block still. Sky high.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

Oh yeah?

Can you give us a couple of examples?

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

Yes asking prices are sky high everywhere. But buyers who want to sell must take 20% less.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago

A top Vancouver realtor friend tells me you can get a SFH in Van or Burn for about the same price as last summer. At least 20% less than you would pay in March. The reality is if you want or buy (or sell) the price is down 20% from peak. He said the top end of the market is no bid.

paulb
paulb
3 years ago

New
151
Sold
97
TI:9007

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  paulb

8K par……oops, never mind.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago

Yes, 9000 inventory in September is totally normal and agrees with everything you’ve said for the last 8 years.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

“9000 inventory in September is totally normal ”

Did I say that? Gee, I don’t recall every saying that. Can you pull up the post where I said that since you love to save everything I’ve every written.

Never mind, just fuck off you piece of shit – Garth is waiting for his nightly blowjob and you’re late.

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
3 years ago
Reply to  paulb

Just like I predicted. Almost a 8K party. Will happen in a few days.

Garth confusing his dumb followers that Vancouver prices are at June 2015 levels. Cites average price ignores sales mix.

Good time to buy will be at beginning of October. Christy made deal with T2. “I bring in 15% tax and you double immigration”. Guess who’s in China?

ostritch
ostritch
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

You do have a point there. It’s we’ll hammer you a bit in your favourite town but then you get to buy the oil sands cheap. Then you can buy back into Vancouver after its off by 15%. No big whoop.

Oncebittwiceshy
Oncebittwiceshy
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.”
– David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, August 2005

Not to worry, Bbbbb, you are in very good company in regards to real estate board statistics and interpretation.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Its_the_ALR_stupid
3 years ago

Except that this time it’s true. Sure, David Lereah was a lying shill for the real estate industry, and any objective look at the numbers would have shown that there was no shortage of housing in 2005 America.

But there IS a severe shortage of inventory in Greater Vancouver in 2016, at least for detached. And that shortage gets more and more acute every year, and the number of people grows by 30k but the number of houses stays flat. So sure, we’ll see a correction in the near term, but it won’t be anywhere near the 50-80% that some seem to think it will, and after it bottoms it’s going to get even more expensive than it is today.

I don’t know why this is so hard for people to see.

patriotz
3 years ago

Don’t mix up inventory, which is the number of units for sale, with the total housing stock.

Lereah was right about inventory. At the top of bubbles there is always a small number of units for sale, as owners hold expecting higher prices. At the same time stock was at an all time high. But inventory can turn on a dime – it’s all about expectations.

Also, there is no “shortage” of anything in a free market. There is relative scarcity, that is SFH becoming relatively more scarce than attached.

Diadora
Diadora
3 years ago

locusts invading Taxes: Foreign buyers snap up $10 billion in Texas homes
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/headlines/20160901-foreign-buyers-snap-up-10-billion-in-texas-homes.ece

ostritch
ostritch
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

Haha. I posted this anecdotally when I got back from my trip to TX and Patriotz tried to skool me on how wrong I was. What a joke computer programmers are. They’ve got numb nuts AND skulls.

Madashell
Madashell
3 years ago

CKNW: Home builder expects foreign buyer tax will lead to thousands of job losses.
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/01/home-builder-expects-foreign-buyer-tax-will-lead-to-thousands-of-job-losses/
It also may lead to doctors wanting to stay, UBC will gets the professor it wants, business will not have to close because of high rent and ghost condos. Family may not break-up due to hardship, business may move back in due to affordability. We may have a city after all if this freaken bubble burst.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  Madashell

But..the builders!

For gods sakes, think of the builders!

space889
space889
3 years ago

That’s the attitude! Who gives a shit about others as long as I get my cheap SFH!

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

Whatever you say, chinaman!

space889
space889
3 years ago
Reply to  Madashell

Because foreign born profs love paying extra tax or rent for years?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

Not much, but that there’s the facts.

ostritch
ostritch
3 years ago
Reply to  Madashell

If only.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago

Real-estate tax shows no sign of slowing luxury condo market
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/real-estate-tax-shows-no-sign-of-slowing-luxury-condo-market-1.2335270

>>> i wonder how many of these deals turn sour after buyers were likely coerced into signing on the dotted line? i’ve had a few people tell me how pissed off many concord brentwood buyers were after the tax was announced esp considering that they bought primarily to flip prior to closing.

Newcomer
Newcomer
3 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Of course, it doesn’t impact them. There wasn’t a foreign “buyer” on the list. Half are local punters and the other half are the owners themselves (as always).

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago

>>> more pumping of tax-free shopping…

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Foreign buyer tax doesn’t impact Chilliwack real estate
http://www.chilliwacktimes.com/news/392045111.html

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Foreign buyers tax could soon have impact locally
http://www.vicnews.com/news/392036771.html

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago

>>> let’s lighten things up a bit here…

Chanel, Champagne, Homicide Charges: Vancouver’s ‘Ultra Rich Asian Girls’ Sees Real Drama On Screen and Off
https://jingdaily.com/chanel-champagne-homicide-charges-vancouvers-ultra-rich-asian-girls-sees-real-drama-on-screen-and-off/

Diadora
Diadora
3 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Vancouver stinks big time with shits like these.

space889
space889
3 years ago
Reply to  bullwhip29

Isn’t that old news?

UBC in Crisis Mode
UBC in Crisis Mode
3 years ago

Although on a busy street, this west side house was sold (asking for $2,880,000) recently.
Last sale January 2014, $1,950.000.

Diadora
Diadora
3 years ago

WTF: 4025 Granville Street, sold in June, 2016 for $3,6700,000, now back on market after 2 months for $7,880,000. This is why the market is going crazy and I hope this assh*le crash and burn and CRA edits him.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

is this another michelle yu special?

Bbbbbb
Bbbbbb
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

Detached and townhouse prices continue to go thru roof in valley. No let up in price increases even as sales went down.

Bbbbbb
Bbbbbb
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

Deal probably happened offshore. Probably sold for close to $7 million overseas. Price in transaction reflected a discount of money that exchanged hands overseas. Plus new owner benefited by saving $70,000 in property transfer tax.

Website such as Juwai.com are booming. List and buy there…Save 10’s thousands in property tax.

Bbbbbb
Bbbbbb
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

The real big money is being made by mainland chinese SELLERS WITH TIES WITH CHINESE AUTHORITIES.

They don’t need the money sent overseas (laundered). They accept it directly in China (Juwai) and new buyer saves Property transfer tax and don’t have to launder funds to buy house.

Losers: Local Taxpayers, Local Renters, Local Infrastructure

Openhousemassacare
Openhousemassacare
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

It’s sold by Karen Zhao of New Coast Realty = MONEY LAUNDERING

yvr2zrh
3 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

So – assuming this house sells now for $4 million more than it was purchased for in June – there is definitely some funny business going on. It actually smells bad already. It’s assessed value is around $3 million (from 2015) – – So – – when this one goes through – let’s have a look at what happened. Who bought it – who sold it – someone should go pull the records at land titles. This just smells of some type of financial fraud if it actually sells anywhere over $3.5 million.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago
Reply to  yvr2zrh

maybe imminent rezoning in the works? if it sells for near asking then some variable certainly changed and buyer was likely tipped off (or just got lucky)

vangrl
vangrl
3 years ago
Reply to  yvr2zrh

yup smells bad. 3.67M seems a bit low for 12,000 s.ft lot on West Side. One would think they made the sale price look low on paper and the rest was paid in cash, but it was MLS listed, and for awhile, I think there may have even been one price reduction before it was sold for under-asking. Owned by 2 people and ya you guessed it….

vangrl
vangrl
3 years ago
Reply to  vangrl

I mean the ownership right now is held by two people/flippers

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
3 years ago

Seeing the numbers come in.

8K party tonite.

Funkey monkey
Funkey monkey
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

I will delist my house I think. Not getting any interest in my 1.5m teardown.
I think I will re list it in march.

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
3 years ago

>>> more unintended (or intended) consequences…

‘The housing crisis here is major’
http://www.coastreporter.net/news/local-news/the-housing-crisis-here-is-major-1.2335352